AFC South · 2026 season

JacksonvilleJaguars

6-2record1stin South#3AFC seed+108point diffW2streak

TitansSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETJAX -10.5 · O/U 46.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementDefensesuccess rate allowed18th→4th

Over the last 4 games the defense has allowed a 37.8% success rate (230 plays), 4th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: a 44.1% success rate (236 plays), 18th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemRun gameEPA per rush4th→11th

Over the last 4 games the run game has posted -0.06 EPA per rush (108 rushes), 11th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: +0.07 EPA per rush (106 rushes), 4th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftWalker Little, OLoffensive snap share11%→86%

Walker Little has played 86% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 11% in the 4 games before. On the field in 4 of 4 and 2 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:32 AM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-2 in the 2026 season, 1st in the AFC South and the No. 3 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of +108. On offense they rank 2nd in the league in EPA per play (+0.148); on defense they rank 3rd (-0.128 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 99% chance to make the playoffs and 22.3% to win the Super Bowl. The Jacksonville Jaguars play next on the road at the Tennessee Titans on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the Jacksonville Jaguars record?

6-2, 1st in the AFC South. Home 4-1, road 2-1, division 1-1, conference 5-2, current streak W2. Points: 229 scored, 121 allowed.

Who do the Jacksonville Jaguars play next?

The Jacksonville Jaguars play next on the road at the Tennessee Titans on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff chances?

99% to make the playoffs, 97% to win the AFC South, 29% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 36.0% to win the AFC and 22.3% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 12.9-4.1).

Who is the Jacksonville Jaguars starting quarterback?

Trevor Lawrence is first on the Jaguars depth chart at quarterback, with Quinn Ewers behind.

Who is injured for the Jacksonville Jaguars?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have nobody on the current injury report.

How good is the Jacksonville Jaguars offense and defense?

Offense: 2nd in EPA per play (+0.148), 2nd on dropbacks, 6th on runs, success rate 47.3%. Defense: 3rd in EPA allowed (-0.128), 3rd against the pass, 3rd against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Jacksonville Jaguars 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jaguars (updated 2026-11-10).

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From the Jaguars Desk

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The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Jaguars, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record6-2

Deserved6.3wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

−0.3 luck wins · 21st luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 1st

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Jaguars would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games2-2decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index100%4 go calls advised

Flags, net−60win prob. points · 30th

Bounce & kick luck−4.8points · −0.6 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 19.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNASlowest tempo, least rpo rate in the leagueClosest twin: Colts (70%)Clock IQ14th of 32 at managing the clockLiam Coen · 6 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real36-2

Deserved16.3-1.7

#3 seed for real, #1 seed deservedSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+8.3The market underrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 5-3 against the spread Sliding Doors2losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped63 points of win probability lost to those plays, 190 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 7Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsJaguars6-2 · proj 12.9-4.1 · 1st in AFC99%▲ 1 pts

Win it all 22.3% · likeliest seed No. 2 (29%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 27 hardest of 32 · avg opp -1.3 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Jaguars stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.1482nd

Dropback EPA+0.2692nd

Rush EPA+0.0066th

Success rate47.3%7th

Defense

EPA allowed-0.1283rd

Pass EPA allowed-0.1013rd

Rush EPA allowed-0.1723rd

Success allowed41.0%9th

Pass rate over expected: -5.2% (25th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 463 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 14.7 (26th most) · RB 17.9 (31st most) · WR 34.6 (14th most) · TE 10.3 (29th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 246 dropbacksT.Lawrence+0.279EPA / dropback+2.8CPOE8.2aDOT51%success

Quarterback · 3 dropbacksQ.Ewers-0.550EPA / dropback-28.7CPOE12.3aDOT33%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
B.Tuten RB	122	521	4	-0.02	42%
C.Rodriguez RB	55	228	4	+0.04	40%
A.Abdullah RB	23	88	0	-0.06	43%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
P.Washington WR	55	25%	37%	12.3	493	5	+0.41
J.Meyers WR	37	17%	22%	10.6	374	2	+0.58
B.Strange TE	37	17%	16%	8.0	356	1	+0.40
Bri.Thomas WR	22	10%	14%	12.2	117	2	+0.21
B.Tuten RB	16	7%	-3%	-3.1	181	3	+0.88
J.Cameron WR	14	6%	5%	6.6	123	2	+0.58
N.Boerkircher TE	12	5%	6%	8.6	144	2	+0.93
T.Hunter WR	8	4%	1%	3.3	75	1	+0.10

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

DefenseBase 4-3 D

6FSJohnson Merriweather

12LCBHunter

44LDEWalker Striggow

91LDTArmstead Orhorhoro

51MLBMiller Combs

2NBLewis Jones

1RCBBrown Jones

41RDEHines-Allen Thomas Jr.

92RDTGodchaux Regis

47SLBGardeck McLeod

30SSBates III Lane III

23WLBOluokun Tavai

HolderLogan Cooke Kick ReturnerAmeer Abdullah Long SnapperRoss Matiscik PunterLogan Cooke Place KickerCam Little Punt ReturnerParker Washington

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9
Emmanuel PregnonOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Robert HainseyOL	88	100	95	100	100	100	81	100
Trevor LawrenceQB	88	100	95	100	100	100	81	100
Cole Van LanenOL	63	100	95	100	100	100	81	100
Ezra ClevelandOL	88	100	92	100	100	100	35	100
Walker LittleOL	37		5		43	100	100	100
Brenton StrangeTE	68	83	77	87	81	76	52	79
Jakobi MeyersWR	65	90	81	82	85	75	54	68
Parker WashingtonWR	61	81	81	80	82	73	67	68
Nate BoerkircherTE	67	39	45	34	49	55	48	55
Josh CameronWR	33	17	37	36	31	51	52	45
Chris RodriguezRB	40	22	21	25	12	30	22	45
Bhayshul TutenRB	49	51	48	59	68	58	50	36
Brian ThomasWR	35	54	37	62	51	21	52	34

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9
Foyesade OluokunLB	67	95	84	100	100	94	70	82
Travis HunterWR	57	60	71	100	100	98	80	82
Antonio JohnsonS	88	100	86	100	100	40		82
Montaric BrownCB	75	79	48		10		89	75
Travon WalkerDE	67	82	67	86	87	89	46	68
Josh Hines-AllenDE	75	85	60	84	87	89	48	66
Ventrell MillerLB	65	76	73	67	73	84	66	62
Kaevon MerriweatherS					34	68	70	62
Ruke OrhorhoroDT	35	29	57	38	34	38	72	57
Jarrian JonesCB	73	63	73	100	98	98	20	55
Arik ArmsteadDT	57	68	57	75	79	78	54	54
Rayuan LaneS	12		14	57	100		100	52
Dennis GardeckLB	51	39	33	29	50	44	43	45
Albert RegisDT	24	10		5				39