NFC South · 2026 season

AtlantaFalcons

3-6record4thin South#13NFC seed-35point diffL2streak

ChiefsSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETKC -3.5 · O/U 45.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Emerging problemDefensesuccess rate allowed4th→30th

Over the last 4 games the defense has allowed a 50.6% success rate (249 plays), 30th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: a 40.1% success rate (324 plays), 4th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftDivine Deablo, LBdefensive snap share93%→21%

Divine Deablo has played 21% of defensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 93% in the 5 games before. On the field in 2 of 4 and 5 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-6 in the 2026 season, 4th in the NFC South and the No. 13 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of -35. On offense they rank 25th in the league in EPA per play (-0.073); on defense they rank 15th (+0.002 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 11% chance to make the playoffs and 0.1% to win the Super Bowl. The Atlanta Falcons play next at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on CBS.

What is the Atlanta Falcons record?

3-6, 4th in the NFC South. Home 1-4, road 2-2, division 1-2, conference 3-3, current streak L2. Points: 188 scored, 223 allowed.

Who do the Atlanta Falcons play next?

The Atlanta Falcons play next at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on CBS.

What are the Atlanta Falcons' playoff chances?

11% to make the playoffs, 10% to win the NFC South, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 0.3% to win the NFC and 0.1% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 6.3-10.7).

Who is the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback?

Michael Penix Jr. is first on the Falcons depth chart at quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa behind.

Who is injured for the Atlanta Falcons?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Anterio Thompson (DT, out, undisclosed), Zachariah Branch (WR, out, hamstring), Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, injured reserve, hamstring), Cameron Williams (OL, injured reserve, ankle) and Samson Ebukam (DE, injured reserve, hamstring).

How good is the Atlanta Falcons offense and defense?

Offense: 25th in EPA per play (-0.073), 28th on dropbacks, 8th on runs, success rate 43.4%. Defense: 15th in EPA allowed (+0.002), 15th against the pass, 21st against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Atlanta Falcons 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/falcons (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Falcons Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeFalcons ran for 157 yards and still gave up 17 points in the second quarterAtlanta led 10-7 after one quarter, then went scoreless until the third as Cincinnati pulled away 34-17.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Falcons, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record3-6

Deserved2.9wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+0.1 luck wins · 15th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 25th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Falcons would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games0-3decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index57%7 go calls advised

Flags, net−1win prob. points · 15th

Bounce & kick luck+6.7points · +0.7 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 10.2, a deserved win probability of 97%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost screen rate, least early-down pass rate in the leagueClosest twin: Jets (69%)Clock IQ21st of 32 at managing the clockKevin Stefanski · 4 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real133-6

Deserved–2.9-6.1

Out of the picture in both worldsSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−2.0The market overrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 3-6 against the spread Sliding Doors2losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped94 points of win probability lost to those plays, 37 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 11Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsFalcons3-6 · proj 6.3-10.7 · 13th in NFC11%▼ 5 pts

Win it all 0.1% · likeliest seed No. 4 (8%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 14 hardest of 32 · avg opp +0.3 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Falcons stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.07325th

Dropback EPA-0.13428th

Rush EPA-0.0008th

Success rate43.4%13th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.00215th

Pass EPA allowed+0.04315th

Rush EPA allowed-0.06021st

Success allowed44.7%25th

Pass rate over expected: -7.7% (29th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 525 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 18.1 (17th most) · RB 27.0 (3rd most) · WR 34.9 (12th most) · TE 13.0 (20th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 218 dropbacksM.Penix+0.025EPA / dropback-4.0CPOE7.3aDOT45%success —Quarterback · 46 dropbacksC.Rush-0.673EPA / dropback-13.4CPOE4.7aDOT35%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
Bi.Robinson RB	169	880	5	+0.00	44%
Br.Robinson RB	53	211	4	+0.05	42%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
D.London WR	68	28%	41%	9.8	706	1	+0.47
Bi.Robinson RB	40	16%	-2%	-0.9	236	1	-0.31
K.Pitts TE	37	15%	11%	4.8	220	4	+0.02
J.Dotson WR	32	13%	32%	15.7	353	2	-0.15
O.Zaccheaus WR	16	7%	6%	6.2	26	0	-0.89
Z.Branch WR	13	5%	2%	2.5	64	0	-0.08
A.Hooper TE	11	4%	3%	3.7	76	1	+0.76
C.Woerner TE	8	3%	2%	4.8	23	1	-0.88

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

64CNeuzil Levin

65LGBergeron Hinton

70LTMatthews Williams ·

9QBPenix Jr.Tagovailoa

14WRZaccheaus Collins

DefenseBase 3-4 D

31FSWatts

24LCBTerrell Jr.Terrell

92LDESmith London

53LILBDaniels Woods

29NBBrown Bowman Jr.

95NTDexter Sr.Thompson ·

26RCBHenderson Hughes

54RDEDorlus Harrison

0RILBDeablo Perkins Jr.

27SLBPearce Jr.Snowden

23SSHellams

99WLBThomas Smith

HolderJake Bailey Kick ReturnerKhalil Herbert Long SnapperLiam McCullough PunterJake Bailey Place KickerNick Folk Punt ReturnerOlamide Zaccheaus

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Matthew BergeronOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Ryan NeuzilOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chris LindstromG	85	86	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Jawaan TaylorT	100	62	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Jake MatthewsT	100	100	100	19	98	100	100	100	100
Michael PenixQB			100	100	95	100	100	100	100
Drake LondonWR	98	62	93	89	98	100	81	96	97
Jahan DotsonWR	63	75	66	63	66	85	56	72	84
Bijan RobinsonRB	77	51	72	60	81	78	81	81	82
Kyle PittsTE	63	38	59	51	67	78	56	55	68
Olamide ZaccheausWR	30	43	34	37	33	55		47	55
Charlie WoernerTE	62	49	61	58	66	29	72	55	42
Chris BlairWR	17	49	18	25	20	4	26	17	32
Khalil HerbertRB							16	19	18

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Xavier WattsS	100	95	100	96	100	100	95	100	100
Jessie Bates IIIS	100	94	98	82	100	100	97	100	100
AJ TerrellCB	93	9					98	100	100
Kendal DanielsLB	67	62	38	39	66	57	100	100	89
C.J. HendersonCB	7	91	95	86	51		95	100	82
Cameron ThomasDE	51	59	68	62	64	60	62	78	65
Gervon DexterDT	58	56	45	59	57	56	65	50	65
Harold PerkinsLB	34	39	65	70	33	53	85	70	60
Maason SmithDL	57	56	52	43	57	55	56	62	60
Brandon DorlusDL	61	38	65	57	47	57	61	50	56
Divine DeabloLB	100	82	100	81	100	32			53
LaCale LondonDL	51	39	29	28	49	48	44	60	46
Sydney BrownDB	43	27	27	30	32	45	48	23	46
Zach HarrisonDL		38	29	42	32	32	24	52	37