Commanders 17, 49ers 23: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Mon, Oct 19 · Levi's StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	3	0	7	7	17
SF	13	7	3	0	23

Home · 7-1San Francisco49ers23

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:14 AM ET

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Washington Commanders 23-17 on Mon, Oct 19 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Commanders 2-5-1, 49ers 7-1. M.Evans (SF) led all players with +5.7 EPA on 5 targets.

Who won Commanders vs 49ers?

The San Francisco 49ers won 23-17. By quarter: WSH 3-0-7-7, SF 13-7-3-0.

Who was the best player in Commanders vs 49ers?

By expected points added: M.Evans (SF, +5.7 EPA on 5 targets), C.McCaffrey (SF, +5.4 EPA on 16 carries) and A.Williams (WAS, +4.3 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Commanders vs 49ers?

The biggest swing in win probability (15 points toward the 49ers) came in Q4 at 2:00: (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to T.Burks (M.Mustapha).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Commanders 17, 49ers 23: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-19-wsh-at-sf (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6EarnedGame file →

Commanders48% success · −0.01 EPA/play

1723

49ers53% success · +0.24 EPA/play

WSH 1% deserveddeserved 99% SF

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 12.1, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginSF by 12.1

Real marginSF by 6

Luck pts WSH+2.8

Luck pts SF−2.9

The swingQ4 2:00 · WAS · −22 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).

Flags that moved this game

1Illegal ContactSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 3:01 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis,…+18.8 WP
2Fair Catch InterferenceSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 1:00 · 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch…+12.0 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA138 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAdrian Hill18 accepted flags in this game · 16.9 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: SF by 7.5 · Snaps: SF by 12.1Commanders covered; the snaps say 49ers should have

17@23

Week 6

If the Commanders had converted that fourth-and-3

Commanders after the play3%what really happened

Q4 2:00 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SF ▲WSH ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+15%Q4 2:00 · for SF(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to T.Burks (M.Mustapha).
+14%Q4 3:01 · for WSH(Shotgun) J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by R.Height and J.Dugger).PENALTY on SF-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29 - No Play.
+14%Q4 0:21 · for SF(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [R.Height].PENALTY on WAS-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.
+9%Q4 2:19 · for SF(Shotgun) J.McNichols left guard to SF 17 for no gain (M.Mustapha).
+9%Q4 0:52 · for WSH(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle to R.White to SF 45 for 9 yards (F.Warner).

Every drive, on the field

SF attacks →← WSH attacks

Q1 15:00TD9p · 64y · 4:07
Q1 10:53FG5p · 32y · 2:05
Q1 8:48TD8p · 72y · 4:39
Q1 4:09PUNT3p · -5y · 2:40
Q1 1:29PUNT3p · 7y · 0:52
Q1 0:37DOWNS6p · 46y · 2:35
Q2 13:02FUM7p · 66y · 4:01
Q2 9:01PUNT3p · -1y · 2:35
Q2 6:26TD14p · 69y · 6:13
Q2 0:13HALF1p · -1y · 0:13
Q3 15:00PUNT4p · 8y · 2:59
Q3 12:01FG11p · 65y · 6:05
Q3 5:56TD11p · 65y · 5:41
Q3 0:15PUNT3p · -1y · 1:10
Q4 14:05TD10p · 80y · 4:43
Q4 9:22PUNT3p · 0y · 1:36
Q4 7:46DOWNS13p · 61y · 5:52
Q4 1:54PUNT3p · 3y · 1:02
Q4 0:52END6p · -4y · 0:52

Commanders8 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)38%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

49ers9 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)44%drives ending in pointsOWN 24avg starting field position4three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:53Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.0–7
Q1
8:48Field goalD.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.3–7
Q1
4:09TouchdownC.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.3–13
Q2
0:13TouchdownC.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.3–20
Q3
5:56Field goalE.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.3–23
Q3
0:15Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left to S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [M.Mustapha]. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.10–23
Q4
9:22Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left to R.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.17–23

Team stats

WSHvsSF

314Total yards375

261Passing yards249

53Rushing yards126

5.1Yards per play6.2

19First downs20

3-12 · 25%Third down7-14 · 50%

1-3Fourth down2-2

2-4Red zone TDs3-4

29/40Comp / att21/29

3.1Yards per carry4.3

0Turnovers1

4 (−39 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−15 yds)

7 for 66Penalties11 for 88

30:15Possession29:45

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.006+0.208

Dropback EPA+0.038+0.111

Rush EPA-0.159+0.334

Success rate48%53%

Explosive plays45

Plays5860

Who moved the needle

M.EvansTargets: 5+5.7

C.McCaffreyCarries: 16+5.4

A.WilliamsTargets: 4+4.3

S.DiggsTargets: 7+4.3

B.PurdyDropbacks: 34+3.8

C.OkonkwoTargets: 7+2.7

Cost their side the most

C.McCaffreyTargets: 10-6.0

J.McNicholsCarries: 5-1.5

R.WhiteCarries: 7-0.2

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jayden DanielsQB	29/40	300	7.5	2	0	4-39	42.9	110.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Rachaad WhiteRB	7	27	3.9	8
Jeremy McNicholsRB	5	13	2.6	6
Jayden DanielsQB	4	10	2.5	4
Austin EkelerRB	1	3	3.0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chig OkonkwoTE	7	7	69	9.9	0	29
Treylon BurksWR	4	6	66	16.5	0	30
Antonio WilliamsWR	3	4	50	16.7	0	23
Stefon DiggsWR	6	7	44	7.3	1	13
Rachaad WhiteRB	4	5	30	7.5	1	9
Terry McLaurinWR	1	1	27	27.0	0	27
Dyami BrownWR	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
John BatesTE	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Austin EkelerRB	2	2	4	2.0	0	2
Luke McCaffreyWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Sonny StylesLB	13	7	0	0	1	0
Frankie LuvuLB	8	2	0	0	1	0
Amik RobertsonCB	7	3	0	0	0	0
Jeremy ReavesS	6	3	0	0	1	0
K'Lavon ChaissonLB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Shy TuttleDT	3	2	1	1	0	1
Odafe OwehLB	3	2	1	1	0	1
Kain MedranoLB	3	2	0	1	0	0
Daron PayneDT	3	1	0	1	0	1
Dorance ArmstrongDE	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Drew StevensPK	1/1	100.0	51	2/2	5

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	21/29	264	9.1	1	0	2-15	68.1	111.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian McCaffreyRB	16	64	4.0	2	9
Kaelon BlackRB	8	34	4.3	0	9
Brock PurdyQB	5	28	5.6	0	11

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mike EvansWR	3	5	94	31.3	0	54
George KittleTE	5	8	69	13.8	1	35
Christian McCaffreyRB	9	10	53	5.9	0	13
Jordan WatkinsWR	1	1	22	22.0	0	22
Brandin CooksWR	1	2	13	13.0	0	13
Kyle JuszczykFB	1	2	10	10.0	0	10
Kaelon BlackRB	1	1	3	3.0	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jaden DuggerLB	11	8	0	0	0	0
Fred WarnerLB	8	6	0	0	0	0
Ji'Ayir BrownS	5	4	0	0	0	0
Malik MustaphaS	4	4	0	0	1	1
Keion WhiteDE	4	1	0.5	0	0	1
Deommodore LenoirCB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Mykel WilliamsDE	3	2	1	1	0	1
Jalen GrahamLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Osa OdighizuwaDT	3	1	1	1	0	1
Romello HeightDE	3	0	0.5	0	0	4

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	1/1	100.0	33	2/3	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

149ers dropback offense vs Commanders pass defense
The 49ers' dropback offense ranks 1st in EPA per dropback (+0.42, 157 dropbacks) against a Commanders pass defense ranked 25th (+0.14 allowed, 212 dropbacks faced).
1stSF offense24 spots apart25thWSH defense
249ers pass protection vs Commanders pass rush
The 49ers' pass protection ranks 1st in sack rate (1.9% sacked, 157 dropbacks) against a Commanders pass rush ranked 27th (4.2% of dropbacks, 212 dropbacks faced).
1stSF offense26 spots apart27thWSH defense
349ers red-zone offense vs Commanders red-zone defense
The 49ers' red-zone offense ranks 1st in red-zone touchdown rate (88%, 17 trips) against a Commanders red-zone defense ranked 32nd (83% allowed, 18 trips faced).
1stSF offense31 spots apart32ndWSH defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Commanders have the ballEdge SF · +16 ranks

WSH dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSF pass defense

17th+0.06195 dropbacks

-0.00 allowed189 dropbacks faced12th

WSH run gameEPA per rushSF run defense

22nd-0.14124 rushes

SF +16

-0.16 allowed128 rushes faced6th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the 49ers have the ballEdge SF · +24 ranks

SF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackWSH pass defense

1st+0.42157 dropbacks

SF +24

+0.14 allowed212 dropbacks faced25th

SF run gameEPA per rushWSH run defense

14th-0.06120 rushes

WSH +9

-0.17 allowed104 rushes faced5th

Third downEdge SF · +22 ranks

WSH third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSF third-down defense

29th31.9%69 third downs

SF +13

40.8% allowed71 third downs faced16th

SF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateWSH third-down defense

2nd51.9%52 third downs

SF +22

45.5% allowed66 third downs faced24th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge SF · +31 ranks

WSH red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSF red-zone defense

23rd50%14 trips

SF +18

50% allowed14 trips faced5th

SF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateWSH red-zone defense

1st88%17 trips

SF +31

83% allowed18 trips faced32nd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SF · +19 ranks

WSH big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSF defense against big plays

20th9.1%319 plays

SF +19

4.1% allowed317 plays faced1st

SF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateWSH defense against big plays

2nd13.4%277 plays

SF +8

8.5% allowed316 plays faced10th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge SF · +26 ranks

WSH pass protectionsack rateSF pass rush

10th5.1% sacked195 dropbacks

5.8% of dropbacks189 dropbacks faced17th

SF pass protectionsack rateWSH pass rush

1st1.9% sacked157 dropbacks

SF +26

4.2% of dropbacks212 dropbacks faced27th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge WSH · +12 ranks

WSH ball securityturnovers per gameSF takeaway defense

2nd0.4 giveaways a game5 games

WSH +12

1.2 takeaways a game5 games14th

SF ball securityturnovers per gameWSH takeaway defense

5th0.6 giveaways a game5 games

1.4 takeaways a game5 games10th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: WSH 5 games, 319 offensive and 316 defensive plays · SF 5 games, 277 offensive and 317 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Nick AllegrettiC→ Lucas Patrick

Charles OmenihuLDE→ Deatrich Wise Jr.

Tim SettleNT→ Daron Payne

Shy TuttleRDE→ K'Lavon Chaisson

Quan MartinRCB→ Trey Amos

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR→ Jordan Watkins

Keenan AllenWR→ Brandin Cooks

DeForest BucknerRDT→ Sebastian Valdez

Nick BosaRDE→ Romello Height

Dre GreenlawWLB→ Mykel Williams

AwayCommanders2 next man up · 1 questionable · 5 changes