Chiefs 24, Broncos 28: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Empower Field at Mile HighFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
KC	7	10	7	0	24
DEN	3	10	0	15	28

Home · 7-2DenverBroncos28

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs 28-24 on Sun, Nov 1 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Chiefs 6-2, Broncos 7-2. P.Mahomes (KC) led all players with +10.9 EPA on 44 dropbacks.

Who won Chiefs vs Broncos?

The Denver Broncos won 28-24. By quarter: KC 7-10-7-0, DEN 3-10-0-15.

Who was the best player in Chiefs vs Broncos?

By expected points added: P.Mahomes (KC, +10.9 EPA on 44 dropbacks), E.Johnson (KC, +9.5 EPA on 5 targets) and B.Nix (DEN, +8.5 EPA on 35 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Chiefs vs Broncos?

The biggest swing in win probability (40 points toward the Broncos) came in Q4 at 0:04: (Shotgun) P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (M.Roach).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Chiefs 24, Broncos 28: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-kc-at-den (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8RobbedGame file →

Chiefs49% success · +0.15 EPA/play

2428

Broncos43% success · +0.09 EPA/play

KC 71% deserveddeserved 29% DEN

Chiefs played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Chiefs lost.

Deserved marginKC by 3.1

Real marginDEN by 4

Luck pts KC−0.8

Luck pts DEN+1.4

The swingQ4 0:04 · KC · −38 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

Flags that moved this game

1Face MaskDEN → helped KC · Wk 8 Q1 9:04 · 9-K.Walker right guard to 50 for 4 yards (29-J.McMillian; 96-E.Uwazurike). PENALTY on DEN-96-E.Uwazurike, Face Mask, 15 yards,…+7.4 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessKC → helped DEN · Wk 8 Q1 11:41 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 46-A.Prentice pushed ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (43-J.Cochrane). PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane,…+7.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 42, Wk 8 Q1 4:37, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.89 EP
2KC · 4th & 2Andy Reid chose Punt at own 31, Wk 8 Q1 2:16, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.66 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA148 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClete Blakeman17 accepted flags in this game · 15.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: DEN by 1.5 · Snaps: KC by 3.1Broncos covered; the snaps say Chiefs should have

24@28

Week 8Changes the winner

If the Chiefs had converted that fourth-and-6

Chiefs after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:04 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DEN ▲KC ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+40%Q4 0:04 · for DEN(Shotgun) P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (M.Roach).
+32%Q4 2:31 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to J.Coleman to KC 5 for 51 yards (N.Williams; N.Bolton).
+28%Q4 0:04 · for DEN(Shotgun) PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 1 - No Play.
+19%Q4 1:32 · for KC(No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to DEN 18 for 32 yards (D.Key).
+19%Q4 1:56 · for DEN(Shotgun) J.Coleman up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.

Every drive, on the field

DEN attacks →← KC attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 4y · 1:19
Q1 13:41FG8p · 62y · 3:58
Q1 9:43TD7p · 69y · 3:39
Q1 6:04PUNT3p · 8y · 1:35
Q1 4:29PUNT3p · 8y · 2:22
Q1 2:07FG9p · 44y · 2:59
Q2 14:08PUNT3p · 0y · 0:22
Q2 13:46PUNT5p · 17y · 2:48
Q2 10:58TD6p · 95y · 3:18
Q2 7:40TD12p · 69y · 6:25
Q2 1:15FG6p · 48y · 0:56
Q2 0:19HALF1p · -1y · 0:19
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 6y · 2:29
Q3 12:31PUNT5p · 20y · 2:56
Q3 9:35PUNT3p · 3y · 2:33
Q3 7:02TD11p · 63y · 5:24
Q3 1:38PUNT3p · 0y · 0:32
Q3 1:06PUNT6p · 19y · 2:53
Q4 13:13TD9p · 80y · 4:18
Q4 8:55MISS11p · 34y · 6:24
Q4 2:31TD2p · 56y · 0:35
Q4 1:56DOWNS8p · 44y · 1:56

Chiefs11 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)36%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Broncos10 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position4three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:43Field goalW.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.0–3
Q1
6:04Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short middle to R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–3
Q2
14:08Field goalW.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.7–6
Q2
7:40Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short left to E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.McMillian]. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.14–6
Q2
1:15TouchdownB.Nix pass short right to J.Waddle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.14–13
Q2
0:19Field goalH.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.17–13
Q3
1:38TouchdownP.Mahomes pass short right to N.Gray for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.24–13
Q4
8:55TouchdownB.Nix pass short right to N.Adkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Nix pass to J.Waddle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.24–21
Q4
1:56Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Coleman up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.24–28

Team stats

KCvsDEN

399Total yards294

309Passing yards217

90Rushing yards77

6.0Yards per play5.2

22First downs21

6-14 · 43%Third down2-11 · 18%

0-1Fourth down2-2

2-3Red zone TDs3-3

30/41Comp / att20/32

3.8Yards per carry3.3

0Turnovers0

2 (−12 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−5 yds)

11 for 105Penalties6 for 45

31:29Possession28:31

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.163+0.112

Dropback EPA+0.247+0.244

Rush EPA+0.002-0.108

Success rate49%43%

Explosive plays56

Plays6756

Who moved the needle

P.MahomesDropbacks: 44+10.9

E.JohnsonTargets: 5+9.5

B.NixDropbacks: 35+8.5

C.SuttonTargets: 4+3.0

R.RiceTargets: 8+2.8

J.ColemanTargets: 5+2.5

Cost their side the most

J.DobbinsCarries: 7-3.3

E.EngramTargets: 3-2.7

M.MimsTargets: 3-1.8

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Patrick MahomesQB	30/41	321	7.8	3	0	2-12	71.0	120.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	21	69	3.3	10
Emmett JohnsonRB	1	15	15.0	15
Patrick MahomesQB	2	6	3.0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Emmett JohnsonRB	5	5	128	25.6	1	73
Travis KelceTE	5	7	67	13.4	0	32
Rashee RiceWR	7	8	53	7.6	1	12
Cyrus AllenWR	2	3	20	10.0	0	12
Noah GrayTE	2	2	15	7.5	1	11
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	4	5	15	3.8	0	8
Xavier WorthyWR	3	6	13	4.3	0	7
Jake BriningstoolTE	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Jalen RoyalsWR	1	1	4	4.0	0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Nick BoltonLB	9	5	0	0	0	1
Alohi GilmanS	6	2	0	0	0	0
Drue TranquillLB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Chamarri ConnerS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Chris Roland-WallaceCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Jack CochraneLB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Nohl WilliamsCB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Kristian FultonCB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Felix Anudike-UzomahDE	3	2	0	0	0	0
George KarlaftisDE	2	2	1	1	3	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison ButkerPK	1/2	50.0	45	3/3	6

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	20/32	222	6.9	2	0	1-5	70.8	103.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonah ColemanRB	11	41	3.7	1	10
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	2	19	9.5	0	14
J.K. DobbinsRB	7	13	1.9	0	6
Bo NixQB	3	4	1.3	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonah ColemanRB	4	5	63	15.8	0	51
Courtland SuttonWR	4	4	53	13.3	0	23
Jaylen WaddleWR	3	6	39	13.0	1	35
Adam TrautmanTE	2	2	30	15.0	0	22
Adam PrenticeFB	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	2	3	10	5.0	0	7
Nate AdkinsTE	2	2	4	2.0	1	2
Troy FranklinWR	1	2	3	3.0	0	3
Evan EngramTE	0	3	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	14	6	1	1	1	1
Pat Surtain IICB	8	7	0	0	1	0
Devon KeyS	8	5	0	1	1	0
Taylor RappS	6	2	0	0	0	0
Malcolm RoachDT	4	3	1	1	0	1
Riley MossCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	4	1	0	0	0	1
Brandon JonesS	3	3	0	0	0	0
Jonathon CooperLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Sai'vion JonesDE	3	1	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	2/2	100.0	45	2/2	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Chiefs run game vs Broncos run defense
The Chiefs' run game ranks 1st in EPA per rush (+0.10, 143 rushes) against a Broncos run defense ranked 28th (-0.03 allowed, 183 rushes faced).
1stKC offense27 spots apart28thDEN defense
2Broncos pass protection vs Chiefs pass rush
The Broncos' pass protection ranks 6th in sack rate (3.8% sacked, 236 dropbacks) against a Chiefs pass rush ranked 30th (3.4% of dropbacks, 232 dropbacks faced).
6thDEN offense24 spots apart30thKC defense
3Chiefs defense against big plays vs Broncos big-play offense
The Chiefs' defense against big plays ranks 6th in explosive-play rate (7.8% allowed, 384 plays faced) and faces a Broncos big-play offense ranked 28th (6.8%, 396 plays).
28thDEN offense22 spots apart6thKC defense

When the Chiefs have the ballEdge KC · +27 ranks

KC dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

10th+0.13211 dropbacks

-0.06 allowed296 dropbacks faced4th

KC run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

1st+0.10143 rushes

KC +27

-0.03 allowed183 rushes faced28th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Broncos have the ballEdge KC · +18 ranks

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackKC pass defense

25th-0.04236 dropbacks

KC +18

-0.01 allowed232 dropbacks faced7th

DEN run gameEPA per rushKC run defense

12th-0.04160 rushes

-0.13 allowed152 rushes faced7th

Third downEdge KC · +9 ranks

KC third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

17th40.0%70 third downs

42.5% allowed106 third downs faced19th

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateKC third-down defense

30th32.6%89 third downs

KC +9

43.0% allowed86 third downs faced21st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +12 ranks

KC red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

18th57%23 trips

DEN +12

45% allowed22 trips faced6th

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateKC red-zone defense

12th63%19 trips

KC +10

31% allowed16 trips faced2nd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge KC · +22 ranks

KC big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

5th11.0%354 plays

KC +10

9.4% allowed479 plays faced15th

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateKC defense against big plays

28th6.8%396 plays

KC +22

7.8% allowed384 plays faced6th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DEN · +24 ranks

KC pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

3rd3.3% sacked211 dropbacks

7.1% of dropbacks296 dropbacks faced8th

DEN pass protectionsack rateKC pass rush

6th3.8% sacked236 dropbacks

DEN +24

3.4% of dropbacks232 dropbacks faced30th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

KC ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

4th0.7 giveaways a game6 games

1.4 takeaways a game7 games8th

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameKC takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game7 games

1.5 takeaways a game6 games4th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: KC 6 games, 354 offensive and 384 defensive plays · DEN 7 games, 396 offensive and 479 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Ben VanSumerenFB→ Emmett Johnson

Kingsley SuamataiaLG→ Mike Caliendo

Jeffrey BassaSLB→ Ashton Gillotte

Jadon CanadyNB→ Kristian Fulton

Mansoor DelaneRCB→ Chris Roland-Wallace

Evan EngramTE→ Adam Trautman

JL SkinnerFS→ Taylor Rapp

AwayChiefs4 questionable · 5 changes