Raiders 17, Patriots 45: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Gillette StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
LV	7	0	3	7	17
NE	14	7	14	10	45

Home · 5-4New EnglandPatriots45

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:36 PM ET

The New England Patriots beat the Las Vegas Raiders 45-17 on Sun, Oct 11 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Raiders 4-5, Patriots 5-4. D.Maye (NE) led all players with +29.6 EPA on 38 dropbacks.

Who won Raiders vs Patriots?

The New England Patriots won 45-17. By quarter: LV 7-0-3-7, NE 14-7-14-10.

Who was the best player in Raiders vs Patriots?

By expected points added: D.Maye (NE, +29.6 EPA on 38 dropbacks), D.Douglas (NE, +10.5 EPA on 5 targets) and K.Williams (NE, +7.4 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Raiders vs Patriots?

The biggest swing in win probability (9 points toward the Patriots) came in Q1 at 11:23: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.PENALTY on LV-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Raiders 17, Patriots 45: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-lv-at-ne (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Raiders42% success · −0.07 EPA/play

1745

Patriots54% success · +0.46 EPA/play

LV 0% deserveddeserved 100% NE

Patriots earned it: the snaps said Patriots by 26.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginNE by 26.3

Real marginNE by 28

Luck pts LV+1.5

Luck pts NE−0.1

The swingQ2 4:33 · NE · −11 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler). FUMBLES (69-A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-26-D.Porter at NE 38. Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceLV → helped NE · Wk 5 Q1 4:00 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards,…+6.5 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceLV → helped NE · Wk 5 Q1 13:23 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass…+4.9 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NE · 4th & 16Mike Vrabel chose Punt at opp 40, Wk 5 Q2 11:00, up 7. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−0.86 EP
2LV · 4th & 15Klint Kubiak chose Punt at opp 40, Wk 5 Q2 5:20, down 7. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−0.86 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA143 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCraig Wrolstad20 accepted flags in this game · 17.3 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: NE by 3.5 · Snaps: NE by 26.3Patriots covered; the snaps agree

17@45

Week 5Changes the winner

If the Raiders had stopped that fourth-and-2

Raiders after the play35%what really happened

Q1 4:35 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NE ▲LV ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+9%Q1 11:23 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.PENALTY on LV-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
+8%Q2 4:33 · for LV(Shotgun) C.Kiner up the middle to NE 37 for 2 yards (A.Butler). FUMBLES (A.Butler), touched at NE 39, RECOVERED by LV-D.Porter at NE 38.Penalty on NE, Illegal Shift, declined.
+8%Q1 2:34 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry to LV 1 for 7 yards (T.Stukes).
+7%Q2 3:19 · for NET.Tucker right tackle to NE 38 for -11 yards (Dr.Jones).
+7%Q1 4:35 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas pushed ob at LV 42 for 6 yards (T.Johnson).

Every drive, on the field

NE attacks →← LV attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 4y · 1:04
Q1 13:56TD5p · 79y · 2:33
Q1 11:23TD6p · 80y · 3:04
Q1 8:19TD11p · 84y · 6:49
Q1 1:30PUNT3p · 5y · 1:47
Q2 14:43PUNT9p · 32y · 3:52
Q2 10:51PUNT10p · 47y · 5:39
Q2 5:12FUM2p · 17y · 0:45
Q2 4:27MISS6p · 7y · 2:35
Q2 1:52TD5p · 61y · 1:28
Q2 0:24HALF1p · -11y · 0:24
Q3 15:00TD4p · 68y · 2:02
Q3 12:58PUNT3p · 5y · 1:32
Q3 11:26PUNT3p · 2y · 1:38
Q3 9:48FG5p · 24y · 1:18
Q3 8:30TD9p · 71y · 5:20
Q3 3:10FUM4p · 22y · 1:15
Q3 1:55FG7p · 57y · 2:43
Q4 14:12TD8p · 74y · 3:23
Q4 10:49TD8p · 44y · 4:43
Q4 6:06DOWNS10p · 54y · 3:32
Q4 2:34END4p · 28y · 2:34

Raiders10 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)30%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Patriots10 drives7scoring drives (6 TD)70%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:23Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.PENALTY on LV-M.Crosby, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.0–7
Q1
8:19Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to B.Bowers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.7–7
Q1
1:30TouchdownR.Stevenson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.7–14
Q2
0:24Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Crosby].Penalty on LV-N.Dean, Defensive Holding, declined. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.7–21
Q3
12:58Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep left to K.Williams for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.7–28
Q3
8:30Field goalM.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.10–28
Q3
3:10Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.10–35
Q4
14:12Field goal A.Borregales 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.10–38
Q4
10:49Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Laube right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-C.Durden was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-Da.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.17–38
Q4
6:06Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-C.Durden has returned to the game.17–45

Team stats

LVvsNE

306Total yards536

268Passing yards371

38Rushing yards165

5.4Yards per play8.1

16First downs29

5-13 · 38%Third down6-12 · 50%

0-2Fourth down2-2

2-3Red zone TDs4-5

25/36Comp / att26/34

2.1Yards per carry5.3

1Turnovers1

3 (−23 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−3 yds)

8 for 101Penalties12 for 116

25:33Possession34:27

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.018+0.423

Dropback EPA+0.054+0.778

Rush EPA-0.185-0.116

Success rate42%54%

Explosive plays412

Plays5763

Who moved the needle

D.MayeDropbacks: 38+29.6

D.DouglasTargets: 5+10.5

K.WilliamsTargets: 3+7.4

H.HenryTargets: 4+6.6

E.ChismTargets: 6+5.8

K.CousinsDropbacks: 31+3.8

Cost their side the most

C.KinerCarries: 6-4.7

M.BensonTargets: 4-3.2

A.JeantyCarries: 10-2.6

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kirk CousinsQB	19/28	243	8.7	1	0	3-23	63.9	106.7
Fernando MendozaQB	6/8	48	6.0	0	0	0-0	18.4	89.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ashton JeantyRB	10	27	2.7	0	4
Dylan LaubeRB	4	9	2.3	1	5
Mike Washington Jr.RB	1	5	5.0	0	5
Fernando MendozaQB	1	3	3.0	0	3
Tre TuckerWR	2	-6	-3.0	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Brock BowersTE	8	10	110	13.8	1	27
Ashton JeantyRB	3	6	50	16.7	0	31
Cody WhiteWR	2	4	44	22.0	0	28
Tre TuckerWR	4	5	41	10.3	0	16
Dylan LaubeRB	3	3	16	5.3	0	7
Ian ThomasTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Deven ThompkinsWR	1	1	8	8.0	0	8
Malik BensonWR	1	4	6	6.0	0	6
Mike Washington Jr.RB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Michael MayerTE	1	1	2	2.0	0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	PD	QB HTS
Nakobe DeanLB	12	5	0	0
Jeremy ChinnS	7	6	1	0
Darien PorterCB	7	5	2	0
Taron JohnsonCB	6	5	0	1
Treydan StukesS	5	4	0	0
Quay WalkerLB	4	1	0	0
Eric StokesCB	3	3	0	0
Cody LindenbergLB	3	3	0	0
Adam ButlerDT	3	2	0	0
Tommy EichenbergLB	3	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Matt GayPK	1/2	50.0	46	2/2	5

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	26/34	374	11.0	4	0	1-3	94.1	150.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rhamondre StevensonRB	13	64	4.9	1	20
Corey KinerRB	6	52	8.7	0	32
Drake MayeQB	7	25	3.6	1	10
TreVeyon HendersonRB	4	22	5.5	0	11
Efton Chism IIIWR	1	2	2.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kyle WilliamsWR	3	3	91	30.3	1	49
DeMario DouglasWR	4	5	65	16.3	2	35
Efton Chism IIIWR	5	6	57	11.4	0	17
Eli RaridonTE	5	5	57	11.4	0	31
Hunter HenryTE	3	4	44	14.7	1	26
Rhamondre StevensonRB	3	3	21	7.0	0	14
Romeo DoubsWR	1	3	16	16.0	0	16
TreVeyon HendersonRB	1	1	16	16.0	0	12
Corey KinerRB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Christian EllissLB	7	3	0	0	0	1
Elijah PonderLB	6	4	2	2	0	3
Darius MuasauLB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Robert SpillaneLB	5	1	0	0	0	0
Kindle VildorCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Marcus JonesCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Mike BrownS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Charles WoodsCB	4	2	0	1	2	0
Dre'Mont JonesDE	4	1	0	1	0	0
Craig WoodsonS	3	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	1/1	100.0	28	6/6	9

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Raiders takeaway defense vs Patriots ball security
The Raiders' takeaway defense ranks 1st in turnovers per game (2.3 takeaways a game, 4 games) and faces a Patriots ball security ranked 32nd (2.5 giveaways a game, 4 games).
32ndNE offense31 spots apart1stLV defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Raiders pass defense vs Patriots dropback offense
The Raiders' pass defense ranks 5th in EPA per dropback (-0.08 allowed, 147 dropbacks faced) and faces a Patriots dropback offense ranked 21st (+0.02, 149 dropbacks).
21stNE offense16 spots apart5thLV defense
3Raiders pass protection vs Patriots pass rush
The Raiders' pass protection ranks 3rd in sack rate (3.3% sacked, 152 dropbacks) against a Patriots pass rush ranked 19th (5.7% of dropbacks, 140 dropbacks faced).
3rdLV offense16 spots apart19thNE defense

When the Raiders have the ballNo big edge

LV dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

11th+0.16152 dropbacks

-0.05 allowed140 dropbacks faced6th

LV run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

29th-0.21108 rushes

+0.06 allowed88 rushes faced30th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Patriots have the ballEdge LV · +16 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLV pass defense

21st+0.02149 dropbacks

LV +16

-0.08 allowed147 dropbacks faced5th

NE run gameEPA per rushLV run defense

23rd-0.15101 rushes

LV +16

-0.15 allowed95 rushes faced7th

Third downNo big edge

LV third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

11th43.1%51 third downs

38.3% allowed47 third downs faced14th

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLV third-down defense

16th39.2%51 third downs

40.4% allowed52 third downs faced18th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NE · +8 ranks

LV red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

21st53%17 trips

NE +8

58% allowed12 trips faced13th

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLV red-zone defense

32nd36%11 trips

77% allowed13 trips faced30th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NE · +9 ranks

LV big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

21st8.1%260 plays

NE +9

8.8% allowed228 plays faced12th

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLV defense against big plays

12th9.6%250 plays

9.5% allowed242 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LV · +16 ranks

LV pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

3rd3.3% sacked152 dropbacks

LV +16

5.7% of dropbacks140 dropbacks faced19th

NE pass protectionsack rateLV pass rush

20th6.7% sacked149 dropbacks

LV +15

8.2% of dropbacks147 dropbacks faced5th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge LV · +31 ranks

LV ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

13th1.0 giveaways a game4 games

1.3 takeaways a game4 games11th

NE ball securityturnovers per gameLV takeaway defense

32nd2.5 giveaways a game4 games

LV +31

2.3 takeaways a game4 games1st

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: LV 4 games, 260 offensive and 242 defensive plays · NE 4 games, 250 offensive and 228 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Fernando MendozaQB→ Kirk Cousins

Connor HeywardFB→ Dylan Laube

Jalen NailorWR→ Malik Benson

Jack BechWR→ Deven Thompkins

Trey Zuhn IIIRG→ Jackson Powers-Johnson

Tonka HemingwayRDE→ Thomas Booker IV

TreVeyon HendersonRB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

A.J. BrownWR→ Romeo Doubs

Mack HollinsWR→ Efton Chism III

Will CampbellLT→ Ben Brown

Walter RouseLG→ Alijah Vera-Tucker