Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Hard Rock StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
KC	7	7	0	10	24
MIA	7	0	3	0	10

Home · 1-7MiamiDolphins10

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:42 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 24-10 on Sun, Sep 27 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Chiefs 6-2, Dolphins 1-7. P.Mahomes (KC) led all players with +12.3 EPA on 25 dropbacks.

Who won Chiefs vs Dolphins?

The Kansas City Chiefs won 24-10. By quarter: KC 7-7-0-10, MIA 7-0-3-0.

Who was the best player in Chiefs vs Dolphins?

By expected points added: P.Mahomes (KC, +12.3 EPA on 25 dropbacks), C.Bell (MIA, +3.5 EPA on 7 targets) and N.Gray (KC, +2.3 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Chiefs vs Dolphins?

The biggest swing in win probability (5 points toward the Dolphins) came in Q3 at 13:16: (Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to O.Gordon to KC 11 for 19 yards (A.Gilman; N.Williams).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-kc-at-mia (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Chiefs53% success · +0.14 EPA/play

2410

Dolphins30% success · −0.13 EPA/play

KC 98% deserveddeserved 2% MIA

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 11.3, a deserved win probability of 98%.

Deserved marginKC by 11.3

Real marginKC by 14

Luck pts KC+1.8

Luck pts MIA−0.1

The swingQ2 3:16 · MIA · −13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill). Kansas City challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards…

Flags that moved this game

1Illegal Use of HandsKC → helped MIA · Wk 3 Q1 7:09 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left guard to KC 32 for 10 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Illegal Use of…+9.3 WP
2Defensive HoldingKC → helped MIA · Wk 3 Q2 4:03 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 21-K.Coleman. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced…+7.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIA · 4th & 9Jeff Hafley chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 3 Q3 3:18, down 4. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA132 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Moore16 accepted flags in this game · 16.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: KC by 10 · Snaps: KC by 11.3Chiefs covered; the snaps agree

24@10

Week 3

If the 34-yard kick had missed

Dolphins after the play19%what really happened

Q4 11:38 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

MIA ▲KC ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+5%Q3 13:16 · for MIA(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to O.Gordon to KC 11 for 19 yards (A.Gilman; N.Williams).
+5%Q3 2:26 · for KC(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to R.Rice.PENALTY on MIA-C.Robinson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 5 - No Play.Penalty on MIA-Z.Sieler, Defensive Holding, declined.
+4%Q4 5:16 · for KCP.Mahomes pass deep right to R.Rice to MIA 15 for 34 yards (C.Johnson) [Z.Sieler].
+4%Q3 14:15 · for MIAM.Willis pass deep middle to G.Dulcich to KC 30 for 42 yards (N.Williams).
+4%Q4 6:05 · for KC(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to G.Dulcich (N.Bolton).

Every drive, on the field

MIA attacks →← KC attacks

Q1 15:00TD4p · 67y · 2:06
Q1 12:54TD17p · 91y · 9:27
Q1 3:27TD10p · 65y · 5:29
Q2 12:58DOWNS6p · 17y · 3:36
Q2 9:22DOWNS6p · 39y · 3:12
Q2 6:10FUM6p · 60y · 3:00
Q2 3:10INT3p · 24y · 1:20
Q2 1:50PUNT4p · 8y · 1:02
Q2 0:48HALF2p · 0y · 0:48
Q3 15:00FG9p · 56y · 4:50
Q3 10:10PUNT4p · 2y · 2:05
Q3 8:05PUNT10p · 38y · 4:54
Q3 3:11FG13p · 80y · 6:36
Q4 11:35DOWNS10p · 32y · 5:39
Q4 5:56TD5p · 47y · 3:01
Q4 2:55INT4p · 9y · 1:01
Q4 1:54MISS4p · 4y · 1:02
Q4 0:52END2p · 13y · 0:52

Chiefs8 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 37avg starting field position0three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Dolphins8 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)25%drives ending in pointsOWN 25avg starting field position0three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
12:54TouchdownJ.Moore reported in as eligible. K.Walker up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–0
Q1
3:27TouchdownC.Wallace reported in as eligible. O.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.7–7
Q2
12:58TouchdownP.Mahomes pass short middle to K.Walker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.14–7
Q3
10:10Field goalR.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.14–10
Q4
11:35Field goalH.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.17–10
Q4
2:55Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.Uche]. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.24–10

Team stats

KCvsMIA

334Total yards329

246Passing yards210

88Rushing yards119

6.8Yards per play4.9

18First downs19

3-7 · 43%Third down8-16 · 50%

0-1Fourth down0-3

3-5Red zone TDs1-2

20/24Comp / att20/36

3.5Yards per carry3.8

1Turnovers2

0Sacks allowed0

8 for 50Penalties8 for 64

25:39Possession34:21

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.138-0.151

Dropback EPA+0.494-0.014

Rush EPA-0.232-0.382

Success rate53%30%

Explosive plays67

Plays4967

Who moved the needle

P.MahomesDropbacks: 25+12.3

C.BellTargets: 7+3.5

N.GrayTargets: 3+2.3

G.DulcichTargets: 7+0.8

D.AchaneCarries: 3+0.8

O.GordonTargets: 3+0.3

Cost their side the most

O.GordonCarries: 17-4.9

K.WalkerCarries: 18-4.9

M.WillisCarries: 3-4.5

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Patrick MahomesQB	20/24	246	10.3	2	1	0-0	57.4	119.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	18	70	3.9	1	22
Emmett JohnsonRB	6	17	2.8	0	7
Patrick MahomesQB	1	1	1.0	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rashee RiceWR	7	9	88	12.6	0	34
Travis KelceTE	2	2	59	29.5	1	48
Noah GrayTE	3	3	39	13.0	0	24
Tyquan ThorntonWR	2	2	22	11.0	0	17
Xavier WorthyWR	2	2	20	10.0	0	17
Jalen RoyalsWR	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
Brashard SmithRB	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	2	2	3	1.5	1	5
Jake BriningstoolTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Nick BoltonLB	11	8	1	1
Mansoor DelaneCB	10	7	1	1
Drue TranquillLB	7	3	1	0
Jaden HicksS	7	1	0	1
Alohi GilmanS	6	3	0	0
Ashton GillotteDE	4	1	0	0
Nohl WilliamsCB	3	2	0	1
L'Jarius SneedCB	3	1	0	0
Jack CochraneLB	3	1	0	0
Peter WoodsDT	3	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison ButkerPK	1/2	50.0	34	3/3	6

Miami Dolphins

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Malik WillisQB	20/36	210	5.8	0	1	0-0	32.4	61.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Malik WillisQB	9	56	6.2	0	11
Ollie Gordon IIRB	17	41	2.4	1	11
De'Von AchaneRB	3	17	5.7	0	11
Malik WashingtonWR	2	5	2.5	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chris BellWR	4	8	67	16.8	44
Malik WashingtonWR	5	10	56	11.2	30
Greg DulcichTE	5	7	55	11.0	42
Ryan MillerWR	2	3	15	7.5	10
Ollie Gordon IIRB	3	3	14	4.7	19
Kevin Coleman Jr.WR	1	4	3	3.0	3
De'Von AchaneRB	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jordyn BrooksLB	10	3	0	0	1
Dante Trader Jr.S	9	4	0	1	0
Chris JohnsonCB	8	5	1	0	0
Michael TaaffeS	7	2	0	0	0
Jacob RodriguezLB	6	4	3	1	0
Zach SielerDT	3	2	1	0	1
JuJu BrentsCB	3	2	0	0	0
Willie Gay Jr.LB	3	1	0	0	0
Jason Marshall Jr.CB	2	2	0	0	0
Jordan PhillipsDT	2	2	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Riley Patterson	1/1	100.0	37	1/1	4

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Chiefs pass defense vs Dolphins dropback offense
The Chiefs' pass defense ranks 4th in EPA per dropback (-0.16 allowed, 66 dropbacks faced) and faces a Dolphins dropback offense ranked 24th (-0.05, 65 dropbacks).
24thMIA offense20 spots apart4thKC defense
2Chiefs run game vs Dolphins run defense
The Chiefs' run game ranks 1st in EPA per rush (+0.23, 58 rushes) against a Dolphins run defense ranked 14th (-0.14 allowed, 55 rushes faced).
1stKC offense13 spots apart14thMIA defense
3Chiefs red-zone offense vs Dolphins red-zone defense
The Chiefs' red-zone offense ranks 17th in red-zone touchdown rate (60%, 10 trips) against a Dolphins red-zone defense ranked 29th (89% allowed, 9 trips faced).
17thKC offense12 spots apart29thMIA defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Chiefs have the ballEdge KC · +21 ranks

KC dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIA pass defense

11th+0.1884 dropbacks

KC +21

+0.48 allowed56 dropbacks faced32nd

KC run gameEPA per rushMIA run defense

1st+0.2358 rushes

KC +13

-0.14 allowed55 rushes faced14th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Dolphins have the ballEdge KC · +20 ranks

MIA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackKC pass defense

24th-0.0565 dropbacks

KC +20

-0.16 allowed66 dropbacks faced4th

MIA run gameEPA per rushKC run defense

27th-0.2141 rushes

+0.10 allowed43 rushes faced29th

Third downEdge KC · +21 ranks

KC third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIA third-down defense

8th48.3%29 third downs

KC +21

57.9% allowed19 third downs faced29th

MIA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateKC third-down defense

25th36.0%25 third downs

KC +21

29.2% allowed24 third downs faced4th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge KC · +15 ranks

KC red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIA red-zone defense

17th60%10 trips

KC +12

89% allowed9 trips faced29th

MIA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateKC red-zone defense

30th25%4 trips

KC +15

60% allowed5 trips faced15th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge KC · +14 ranks

KC big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIA defense against big plays

8th11.3%142 plays

KC +14

10.8% allowed111 plays faced22nd

MIA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateKC defense against big plays

16th9.4%106 plays

KC +10

6.4% allowed109 plays faced6th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge KC · +24 ranks

KC pass protectionsack rateMIA pass rush

8th4.8% sacked84 dropbacks

KC +24

0.0% of dropbacks56 dropbacks faced32nd

MIA pass protectionsack rateKC pass rush

32nd13.8% sacked65 dropbacks

KC +11

6.1% of dropbacks66 dropbacks faced21st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge KC · +8 ranks

KC ball securityturnovers per gameMIA takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

KC +8

1.0 takeaways a game2 games12th

MIA ball securityturnovers per gameKC takeaway defense

14th1.0 giveaways a game2 games

1.5 takeaways a game2 games7th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: KC 2 games, 142 offensive and 109 defensive plays · MIA 2 games, 106 offensive and 111 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Ben VanSumerenFB→ Emmett Johnson

Josh DownsWR→ Tyquan Thornton

Jeffrey BassaSLB→ R Mason Thomas

Jadon CanadyNB→ L'Jarius Sneed

Chamarri ConnerSS→ Jaden Hicks

Kyle McCordQB→ Malik Willis

Caleb DouglasWR→ Kevin Coleman Jr.

Kenneth GrantLDT→ Zach Sieler

AwayChiefs4 questionable · 5 changes