Bills 33, Raiders 30: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Allegiant StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
BUF	3	10	10	10	33
LV	7	6	0	17	30

Home · 4-5Las VegasRaiders30

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Las Vegas Raiders 33-30 on Sun, Oct 18 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bills 7-1, Raiders 4-5. K.Cousins (LV) led all players with +11.5 EPA on 41 dropbacks.

Who won Bills vs Raiders?

The Buffalo Bills won 33-30. By quarter: BUF 3-10-10-10, LV 7-6-0-17.

Who was the best player in Bills vs Raiders?

By expected points added: K.Cousins (LV, +11.5 EPA on 41 dropbacks), J.Allen (BUF, +10.2 EPA on 36 dropbacks) and T.Tucker (LV, +9.0 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of Bills vs Raiders?

The biggest swing in win probability (16 points toward the Raiders) came in Q4 at 8:07: (Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills 33, Raiders 30: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-buf-at-lv (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6EarnedGame file →

Bills48% success · +0.17 EPA/play

3330

Raiders43% success · +0.10 EPA/play

BUF 69% deserveddeserved 31% LV

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 2.8, a deserved win probability of 69%.

Deserved marginBUF by 2.8

Real marginBUF by 3

Luck pts BUF−0.5

Luck pts LV−1.5

The swingQ4 8:13 · LV · +21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingBUF → helped LV · Wk 6 Q3 9:57 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence,… · Touchdown erased (5.1 expected pts)+6.1 WP
2Defensive HoldingLV → helped BUF · Wk 6 Q3 8:11 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Kincaid (31-T.Stukes). PENALTY on LV-31-T.Stukes, Defensive Holding, 5…+5.9 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA146 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Smith14 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 5.5 · Snaps: BUF by 2.8Raiders covered; the snaps agree

33@30

Week 6Changes the winner

If the 47-yard kick had missed

Raiders after the play44%what really happened

Q3 9:50 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

LV ▲BUF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+16%Q4 8:07 · for LV(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
+11%Q4 4:56 · for BUFJ.Allen pass short left to J.Cook pushed ob at LV 3 for 26 yards (J.Chinn).
+10%Q4 0:38 · for BUFJ.Allen kneels to BUF 42 for -1 yards.
+9%Q4 1:32 · for LV(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep middle to T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
+9%Q4 9:33 · for LVK.Cousins pass deep left to B.Bowers pushed ob at BUF 13 for 29 yards (D.Hamlin).

Every drive, on the field

LV attacks →← BUF attacks

Q1 15:00FG9p · 30y · 4:48
Q1 10:12TD9p · 70y · 5:45
Q1 4:27FG10p · 58y · 4:42
Q2 14:45PUNT3p · 6y · 1:44
Q2 13:01TD9p · 85y · 5:48
Q2 7:13FG10p · 57y · 4:59
Q2 2:14PUNT3p · -7y · 0:34
Q2 1:40FG8p · 58y · 1:40
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 0y · 0:35
Q3 14:25FG9p · 37y · 4:40
Q3 9:45INT2p · -2y · 0:51
Q3 8:54TD6p · 32y · 2:32
Q3 6:22FG15p · 70y · 7:50
Q4 13:32PUNT4p · 16y · 1:36
Q4 11:56TD9p · 91y · 3:49
Q4 8:07TD7p · 66y · 3:24
Q4 4:43PUNT3p · 0y · 0:35
Q4 4:08FG8p · 29y · 2:12
Q4 1:56TD2p · 66y · 0:24
Q4 1:32END3p · -3y · 1:32

Bills9 drives7scoring drives (3 TD)78%drives ending in pointsOWN 37avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Raiders10 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:12Field goalT.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.3–0
Q1
4:27TouchdownA.Jeanty left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.3–7
Q2
14:45Field goalT.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.6–7
Q2
7:13Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.13–7
Q2
2:14Field goalM.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.13–10
Q2
0:00Field goal M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.13–13
Q3
9:45Field goalT.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.16–13
Q3
6:22Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to K.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Crosby]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.23–13
Q4
13:32Field goalM.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.23–16
Q4
8:07Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to T.Tucker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.23–23
Q4
4:43TouchdownA.Corbett reported in as eligible. J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.30–23
Q4
1:56Field goalT.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.33–23
Q4
1:32Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep middle to T.Tucker for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.33–30

Team stats

BUFvsLV

345Total yards378

242Passing yards313

103Rushing yards65

5.4Yards per play6.2

23First downs25

4-11 · 36%Third down7-12 · 58%

0-0Fourth down0-0

3-5Red zone TDs2-5

23/33Comp / att23/41

3.6Yards per carry3.3

0Turnovers1

2 (−13 yds)Sacks allowed0

8 for 77Penalties7 for 62

31:48Possession28:12

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.171+0.095

Dropback EPA+0.282+0.280

Rush EPA+0.011-0.285

Success rate48%43%

Explosive plays76

Plays6161

Who moved the needle

K.CousinsDropbacks: 41+11.5

J.AllenDropbacks: 36+10.2

T.TuckerTargets: 7+9.0

K.ColemanTargets: 6+5.3

J.CookTargets: 3+5.0

B.BowersTargets: 9+3.2

Cost their side the most

A.JeantyCarries: 10-3.8

J.NailorTargets: 4-1.8

M.WashingtonCarries: 9-1.2

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	23/33	255	7.7	2	0	2-13	67.3	112.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	22	95	4.3	1	13
Ray DavisRB	1	4	4.0	0	4
Ty JohnsonRB	1	3	3.0	0	3
Josh AllenQB	5	1	0.2	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Keon ColemanWR	4	6	59	14.8	1	21
James Cook IIIRB	3	3	58	19.3	0	26
Dalton KincaidTE	7	8	38	5.4	0	14
Joshua PalmerWR	1	2	37	37.0	0	37
Khalil ShakirWR	4	6	34	8.5	1	16
Ty JohnsonRB	2	2	24	12.0	0	14
Ray DavisRB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Dawson KnoxTE	1	1	0	0.0	0	0
Skyler BellWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Terrel BernardLB	9	5	0	0	0
Cole BishopS	7	3	0	2	0
Damar HamlinS	6	3	0	0	0
Dorian WilliamsLB	5	3	0	1	0
TJ ParkerLB	5	0	0	0	1
Deone WalkerDT	4	2	1	0	1
Greg GainesDT	3	1	1	0	0
DeWayne CarterDT	3	1	0	0	0
Sam Franklin Jr.S	3	0	0	0	0
Joe AndreessenLB	2	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	4/4	100.0	47	3/3	15

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kirk CousinsQB	23/41	313	7.6	2	1	0-0	64.3	86.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mike Washington Jr.RB	9	43	4.8	0	18
Ashton JeantyRB	10	22	2.2	1	8
Dylan LaubeRB	1	0	0.0	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tre TuckerWR	5	7	97	19.4	2	44
Michael MayerTE	7	9	95	13.6	0	28
Brock BowersTE	4	9	70	17.5	0	29
Ashton JeantyRB	4	6	36	9.0	0	15
Jalen NailorWR	1	4	9	9.0	0	9
Mike Washington Jr.RB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Cody WhiteWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Dylan LaubeRB	1	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Nakobe DeanLB	12	3	0	1	0	0
Jeremy ChinnS	10	9	0	0	0	1
Treydan StukesS	9	5	0	0	1	0
Quay WalkerLB	6	3	1	1	0	1
Maxx CrosbyDE	5	2	0	1	0	2
Taron JohnsonCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Eric StokesCB	3	2	0	0	1	0
Isaiah Pola-MaoS	3	2	0	0	0	0
Kwity PayeDE	3	1	1	1	0	1
Thomas Booker IVDT	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Matt GayPK	3/3	100.0	35	3/3	12

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bills big-play offense vs Raiders defense against big plays
The Bills' big-play offense ranks 1st in explosive-play rate (16.7%, 293 plays) against a Raiders defense against big plays ranked 28th (11.5% allowed, 305 plays faced).
1stBUF offense27 spots apart28thLV defense
2Bills dropback offense vs Raiders pass defense
The Bills' dropback offense ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback (+0.34, 167 dropbacks) against a Raiders pass defense ranked 22nd (+0.10 allowed, 185 dropbacks faced).
2ndBUF offense20 spots apart22ndLV defense
3Bills third-down offense vs Raiders third-down defense
The Bills' third-down offense ranks 1st in third-down conversion rate (52.9%, 51 third downs) against a Raiders third-down defense ranked 21st (42.9% allowed, 63 third downs faced).
1stBUF offense20 spots apart21stLV defense

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +20 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLV pass defense

2nd+0.34167 dropbacks

BUF +20

+0.10 allowed185 dropbacks faced22nd

BUF run gameEPA per rushLV run defense

6th+0.04126 rushes

-0.14 allowed120 rushes faced9th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Raiders have the ballEdge LV · +17 ranks

LV dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

11th+0.14192 dropbacks

LV +17

+0.23 allowed223 dropbacks faced28th

LV run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

29th-0.21125 rushes

-0.03 allowed127 rushes faced23rd

Third downEdge BUF · +20 ranks

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLV third-down defense

1st52.9%51 third downs

BUF +20

42.9% allowed63 third downs faced21st

LV third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

12th42.2%64 third downs

LV +10

43.3% allowed67 third downs faced22nd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge BUF · +21 ranks

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLV red-zone defense

8th68%22 trips

BUF +21

78% allowed18 trips faced29th

LV red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

19th55%20 trips

LV +8

76% allowed21 trips faced27th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge BUF · +27 ranks

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLV defense against big plays

1st16.7%293 plays

BUF +27

11.5% allowed305 plays faced28th

LV big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

25th7.9%317 plays

10.9% allowed350 plays faced25th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LV · +17 ranks

BUF pass protectionsack rateLV pass rush

18th6.0% sacked167 dropbacks

LV +8

7.0% of dropbacks185 dropbacks faced10th

LV pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

5th4.2% sacked192 dropbacks

LV +17

4.9% of dropbacks223 dropbacks faced22nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge LV · +24 ranks

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameLV takeaway defense

25th1.8 giveaways a game5 games

LV +24

2.0 takeaways a game5 games1st

LV ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

12th1.0 giveaways a game5 games

LV +8

1.0 takeaways a game5 games20th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: BUF 5 games, 293 offensive and 350 defensive plays · LV 5 games, 317 offensive and 305 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

DJ MooreWR→ Skyler Bell

Alec AndersonLG→ Austin Corbett

Ed OliverRDE→ DeWayne Carter

Bradley ChubbSLB→ TJ Parker

Connor HeywardFB→ Mike Washington Jr.

Jack BechWR→ Malik Benson

Trey Zuhn IIIRG→ Caleb Rogers

Tonka HemingwayRDE→ Malcolm Koonce

AwayBills2 questionable · 4 changes