The LabThe league the snaps would have built

The Deserved Standings

Every 2026 game re-decided by the snaps, not the scoreboard. Each team gets the share of a win its play earned, game by game, and the playoff seeds are rebuilt from there. 4 teams hold a playoff seed they did not earn; 4 are out despite playing like playoff teams.

Through Week 9Luck Index Real playoff odds JSON

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

Bottom lineLuckiest so far: Broncos, +2.9 wins more than their play earned. Unluckiest: Jets, −2.5.

How to read this chart

Two boards, one per conference.: Each row is a team. The board starts on the real standings (record as it is) and flips by itself to the deserved standings (the record the team's play earned). Use the Real world / Deserved world buttons to switch.
Deserved records have decimals.: A game the team's snaps won 70% of the time counts as 0.7 of a win, so 6.4-2.6 is normal.
The seed number: next to a team means it is in the playoffs in that world (1-4 division leaders, 5-7 wild cards). Teams that change place are the ones luck has helped or hurt.

The board flips to the deserved world on its own the first time it comes into view. Deserved records are fractional: a game the snaps gave a team 70% of the time counts as 0.7 of a win. Seeds: four division leaders, then three wild cards; ties go to net EPA per snap.

Bottom line4 teams hold a seed the snaps do not support, 4 are out while playing like a playoff team.

How to read the team cards

Real: is the record in the standings today.
Deserved: is the record the team's play earned, with its uncertainty (±): the true value is probably within that range.
Luck wins: is real wins minus deserved wins. Positive (red) means the team has won more than it played; negative (green) means it deserves more than it has.

In the playoffs, not on the snaps

Living on borrowed wins

Real seed today, no seed in the deserved world

Real seed #2 · deserved: outDenver Broncos

7-2real4.1–4.9deserved ±1.1+2.9luck wins

Won while outplayed: W3 vs Rams 30-26 · W8 vs Chiefs 28-24 · W9 vs Panthers 26-21

Real seed #4 · deserved: outCarolina Panthers

3-5real3.7–4.3deserved ±0.7−0.7luck wins

No single theft: the luck is spread over close games and bounces.

Real seed #5 · deserved: outDetroit Lions

6-2real4.7–3.3deserved ±1.1+1.3luck wins

No single theft: the luck is spread over close games and bounces.

Real seed #6 · deserved: outMinnesota Vikings

6-2real4.7–3.3deserved ±1.1+1.3luck wins

No single theft: the luck is spread over close games and bounces.

Out of the playoffs, in on the snaps

Locked out by luck

No real seed today, a seed in the deserved world

Deserved seed #4 · real: outTampa Bay Buccaneers

3-6real4.7–4.3deserved ±1.1−1.7luck wins

No single robbery: the deficit is spread over close games and bounces.

Deserved seed #5 · real: outLos Angeles Rams

5-4real6.6–2.4deserved ±0.9−1.6luck wins

Lost while the better team: W3 vs Broncos 26-30

Deserved seed #6 · real: outHouston Texans

3-5real4.2–3.8deserved ±1.0−1.2luck wins

No single robbery: the deficit is spread over close games and bounces.

Deserved seed #7 · real: outSeattle Seahawks

5-4real5.5–3.5deserved ±0.9−0.5luck wins

No single robbery: the deficit is spread over close games and bounces.

Every division, both worlds

How the divisions reshuffle

Thick line = the team changes place

Bottom line12 of 32 teams sit in a different division place than their play earned.

How to read this chart

One box per division.: Left column: the real order, top = first place, with the record. Right column: the deserved order, with deserved wins.
Each line joins a team's two positions.: A thick, bright line means the team changes place; a thin, faint line means luck did not move it.
A line going down: means the team is placed higher than its play deserves; going up, it deserves better.

AFC Eastreal → deserved

AFC Northreal → deserved

AFC Southreal → deserved

AFC Westreal → deserved

NFC Eastreal → deserved

NFC Northreal → deserved

NFC Southreal → deserved

NFC Westreal → deserved

Biggest climberTexans ▲511th in the AFC for real, 6th on the snaps Biggest fallerBroncos ▼92nd in the AFC for real, 11th on the snaps

How sure are we? The deserved probabilities are calibrated on 27 seasons of games and the luck does not carry over from one half of a season to the next. The ± next to a deserved record is its uncertainty. The test →

MethodHow this is built

Deserved wins: For every game, the margin each team's snaps were worth (net EPA per scrimmage play, fumble bounces evened out) becomes a win probability. The sum over a team's games is its deserved wins. Same model as Robbed & Lucky.
Robbed and lucky: A game is a robbery when the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time. The team cases list those games.
Seeding: Division leaders by deserved win percentage take seeds 1-4, the best three of the rest take 5-7. Ties: net EPA per snap. The real NFL tiebreakers are richer; this is a simplified version, like our playoff odds.
Real seeds: From the live standings feed. A real seed above 7 counts as out.