Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
InjuryA.J. Brown: Out → Questionable51 min agoInjuryA.J. Brown: Questionable → Out1 h agoESPNBroncos say trade with Chargers for LB Henley 'will not be finalized'Pro Football RumorsBroncos-Bolts’ Daiyan Henley Trade NixedDenver BroncosStatement from the BroncosESPNRams optimistic about Davante Adams' return after quiet trade deadlineInjuryChristian Darrisaw: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryDaniel Jones: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPN49ers face questions at corner heading into Week 10InjuryChamarri Conner: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryTrey McBride: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryChris Olave: Active → Cleared7 h agoInjuryJustin Reid: Active → Cleared7 h agoCincinnati BengalsQuick Hits | Joe Burrow Eyes Drew Brees' Record Of 74.4%: 'That Would Be A Fun One To Break'Pro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/11/26ESPNTitans explain decision to keep Tony PollardESPNVeteran WR Keenan Allen feeling energized by trade to 49ersPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/11/26Las Vegas RaidersGutierrez: Raiders long-term plan comes to fruition with insertion of Fernando Mendoza at quarterbackLos Angeles RamsFrom the Podium: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford preview Rams' second meeting with CardinalsESPNSaints get Travis Etienne back at practiceArizona CardinalsFor Starters, Carson Beck Ready To Play First Game Against Rams
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
Bills DeskThe TapeGame center →

Josh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis

Buffalo ran 41:59 of possession against 17:28 and beat Minnesota 23-6 despite a 3.0 yards-per-carry day and four sacks of Josh Allen.

BUFJosh AllenThe TapeW 23–6atVIKINGSQBJosh Allen
By Bills Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 12:31 AM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

Josh Allen threw a deep-middle pass intended for D.Moore in the first quarter, and B.Murphy intercepted it and returned it 54 yards to the Minnesota 47. Sixteen seconds of game clock later, the Bills had the ball back. C.Wentz dropped back on what was ruled an incomplete pass to J.Jefferson, Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the call was reversed into a fumble. Greg Rousseau recovered it at the Minnesota 44.

That fumble was Buffalo's biggest swing of the game at 10 percentage points of win probability. The interception had cost the Bills 7. The net was three points of win probability, and it came inside one minute.

The rest of the afternoon followed that pattern. The Vikings finished with three turnovers and went 0-for-2 on fourth down.

The swing

The lens for this desk is explosive plays against turnover-worthy plays, and Allen supplied one of each. The interception was the turnover-worthy throw. The explosive one came at 0:44 of the second quarter, when Allen threw deep right to K.Latu for a 25-yard touchdown. It was worth 9 points of win probability and put Buffalo up 10-6 at the half.

Those throws were the exceptions. Allen finished 21 of 31 for 234 yards, one touchdown and one interception, for a rating of 87.3. He was sacked four times for 29 yards, which pulled the team's net passing yardage down to 205 and its yards per pass to 5.9. Allen also ran six times for 15 yards.

The ground game did not make up for it by efficiency. Buffalo ran for 134 yards at 3.0 yards per carry. The Bills went 1-for-3 in the red zone and scored touchdowns on only two of their 13 drives. Three of the five scoring drives ended in field goals.

Who moved the needle

The defense did most of the work. Minnesota went 0-for-8 on third down, ran 12 drives and scored on two of them, neither a touchdown. The Vikings gained 178 total yards against Buffalo's 339 and had 9 first downs to the Bills' 22.

Terrel Bernard made the other big swing of the second half. With 4:10 left in the third quarter he intercepted Wentz on a short-middle pass intended for Jefferson at the Buffalo 34, a play worth 9 points of win probability. He finished with six tackles and two passes defensed. Rousseau had a sack, a tackle for loss and three quarterback hits. Javon Solomon added a sack and a tackle for loss.

On offense, James Cook III carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown, an average of 3.5. The Bills held the ball for 41:59 to Minnesota's 17:28, and the 15-play, 84-yard touchdown drive was the longest of the day. Khalil Shakir caught four passes for 58 yards, Dawson Knox caught four on five targets, and Ty Johnson's two catches covered 36 yards, with a long of 36.

Where it leaves them

Buffalo is 7-1 with a four-game winning streak and holds the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Bills are 4-0 on the road. They have scored 256 points and allowed 187, a differential of plus 69.

In the division, the Patriots are 5-4, the Jets 2-7 and the Dolphins 1-7. The Bills lead New England by two and a half games.

Next up is a trip to face the New York Jets at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 15, on CBS. The Jets are 2-7. Buffalo has turned the ball over once in this game and has to protect Allen better against a team that will be looking to get him on the ground.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.