Colts 22, Steelers 34: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Acrisure StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
IND	6	7	6	3	22
PIT	7	10	7	10	34

Home · 6-2PittsburghSteelers34

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:19 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Indianapolis Colts 34-22 on Sun, Oct 11 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Colts 2-7, Steelers 6-2. J.Warren (PIT) led all players with +5.1 EPA on 15 carries.

Who won Colts vs Steelers?

The Pittsburgh Steelers won 34-22. By quarter: IND 6-7-6-3, PIT 7-10-7-10.

Who was the best player in Colts vs Steelers?

By expected points added: J.Warren (PIT, +5.1 EPA on 15 carries), T.Warren (IND, +4.5 EPA on 9 targets) and A.Rodgers (PIT, +4.5 EPA on 33 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Colts vs Steelers?

The biggest swing in win probability (17 points toward the Steelers) came in Q3 at 7:06: J.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Colts 22, Steelers 34: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-ind-at-pit (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Colts39% success · +0.00 EPA/play

2234

Steelers44% success · +0.21 EPA/play

IND 5% deserveddeserved 95% PIT

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 9.2, a deserved win probability of 95%.

Deserved marginPIT by 9.2

Real marginPIT by 12

Luck pts IND−3.6

Luck pts PIT−0.9

The swingQ1 8:57 · PIT · +20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart].

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceIND → helped PIT · Wk 5 Q2 13:25 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf [95-A.Adebawore]. PENALTY on IND-7-C.Ward, Defensive Pass…+6.9 WP
2Offensive HoldingPIT → helped IND · Wk 5 Q3 9:45 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-B.Smith to IND 49 for 6 yards (58-A.Ajiake) [99-D.Buckner]. PENALTY on…+3.1 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA143 plays, one strand1 lead change · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Smith15 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: PIT by 3 · Snaps: PIT by 9.2Steelers covered; the snaps agree

22@34

Week 5

If the Colts had stopped that fourth-and-1

Colts after the play16%what really happened

Q4 7:56 30-J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

PIT ▲IND ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+17%Q3 7:06 · for PITJ.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
+16%Q1 8:45 · for PIT(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Stewart]. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
+15%Q4 6:35 · for PIT(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
+12%Q2 7:43 · for INDT.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
+9%Q4 7:56 · for PIT(Shotgun) J.Warren left guard to IND 21 for 1 yard (D.Buckner).

Every drive, on the field

PIT attacks →← IND attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · -15y · 2:39
Q1 12:21FG7p · 22y · 3:24
Q1 8:57TD1p · 80y · 0:12
Q1 8:45FG4p · 5y · 1:50
Q1 6:55TD12p · 80y · 8:38
Q2 13:17TD11p · 71y · 5:34
Q2 7:43PUNT3p · 5y · 1:40
Q2 6:03PUNT6p · 34y · 3:21
Q2 2:42FG11p · 58y · 2:21
Q2 0:21HALF1p · 5y · 0:21
Q3 15:00FG9p · 56y · 4:37
Q3 10:23TD5p · 60y · 3:17
Q3 7:06FG10p · 45y · 4:53
Q3 2:13PUNT3p · -10y · 1:02
Q3 1:11FG12p · 51y · 4:29
Q4 11:42TD10p · 64y · 5:07
Q4 6:35DOWNS8p · 4y · 2:23
Q4 4:12FG4p · 3y · 0:29
Q4 3:43DOWNS6p · 19y · 1:08
Q4 2:35END4p · 9y · 2:35

Colts9 drives6scoring drives (1 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position0three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Steelers9 drives6scoring drives (4 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position3three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:57Field goalS.Shrader 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.3–0
Q1
8:45Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Stewart]. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.3–7
Q1
6:55Field goalS.Shrader 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.6–7
Q2
13:17Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to P.Freiermuth for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.6–14
Q2
7:43TouchdownT.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.13–14
Q2
0:21Field goal C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.13–17
Q3
10:23Field goal S.Shrader 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.16–17
Q3
7:06TouchdownJ.Warren left guard for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.16–24
Q3
2:13Field goalS.Shrader 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.19–24
Q4
11:42Field goalS.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.22–24
Q4
6:35Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to P.Freiermuth for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.22–31
Q4
3:43Field goalC.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.22–34

Team stats

INDvsPIT

332Total yards352

266Passing yards225

66Rushing yards127

4.8Yards per play6.5

19First downs16

4-15 · 27%Third down4-11 · 36%

3-5Fourth down2-2

1-3Red zone TDs2-2

24/44Comp / att22/31

2.8Yards per carry5.8

0Turnovers0

1 (−1 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−10 yds)

9 for 59Penalties6 for 50

32:00Possession28:00

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.003+0.243

Dropback EPA-0.003+0.135

Rush EPA+0.016+0.431

Success rate39%44%

Explosive plays75

Plays6952

Who moved the needle

J.WarrenCarries: 15+5.1

T.WarrenTargets: 9+4.5

A.RodgersDropbacks: 33+4.5

P.FreiermuthTargets: 7+3.6

J.WarrenTargets: 6+3.1

G.BernardTargets: 9+1.9

Cost their side the most

J.TaylorCarries: 15-2.8

J.DownsTargets: 6-1.9

L.TreadwellTargets: 8-1.3

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	24/44	267	6.1	0	0	1-1	58.1	72.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	15	45	3.0	0	20
Seth McGowanRB	5	16	3.2	0	10
Daniel JonesQB	3	4	1.3	0	2
Tyler WarrenTE	1	1	1.0	1	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tyler WarrenTE	7	9	83	11.9	29
Josh DownsWR	3	6	47	15.7	42
Keenan AllenWR	5	9	45	9.0	14
Jonathan TaylorRB	3	4	37	12.3	24
Laquon TreadwellWR	2	8	34	17.0	22
Mo Alie-CoxTE	2	2	14	7.0	7
Drew OgletreeTE	1	1	4	4.0	4
Seth McGowanRB	1	1	3	3.0	3
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR	0	1	0	0.0	0
Deion BurksWR	0	2	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	7	3	0	1	0	0
A.J. HaulcyS	6	4	0	0	1	0
DeForest BucknerDT	6	3	1	1	0	1
Justin WalleyCB	6	3	0	0	0	0
Austin AjiakeLB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Grover StewartDT	5	1	0	0	0	1
Charvarius WardCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Cam BynumS	3	2	0	0	0	0
CJ AllenLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Cam Taylor-BrittCB	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	5/5	100.0	57	1/1	16

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Aaron RodgersQB	22/31	235	7.6	3	0	1-10	42.9	125.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaylen WarrenRB	15	101	6.7	1	50
DK MetcalfWR	1	11	11.0	0	11
Aaron RodgersQB	1	6	6.0	0	6
Lew NicholsRB	1	6	6.0	0	6
Germie BernardWR	1	4	4.0	0	4
Pat FreiermuthTE	1	1	1.0	0	1
Mason RudolphQB	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaylen WarrenRB	6	6	87	14.5	1	80
Germie BernardWR	6	9	80	13.3	0	25
Pat FreiermuthTE	5	7	44	8.8	2	17
Darnell WashingtonTE	2	3	12	6.0	0	10
DK MetcalfWR	3	4	12	4.0	0	9
Roman WilsonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Payton WilsonLB	10	8	0	2	1	1
Jalen RamseyCB	9	4	0	0	1	0
Jaquan BriskerS	7	4	0	0	2	0
Patrick QueenLB	7	0	0	0	0	0
Daylen EveretteCB	6	5	0	0	2	0
Asante Samuel Jr.CB	4	3	0	0	4	0
Yahya BlackDE	4	1	0	1	0	0
Jack SawyerLB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Keeanu BentonDT	3	2	0	0	1	1
Cameron HeywardDT	3	1	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chris BoswellPK	2/2	100.0	54	4/4	10

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Colts third-down defense vs Steelers third-down offense
The Colts' third-down defense ranks 3rd in third-down conversion rate (29.8% allowed, 47 third downs faced) and faces a Steelers third-down offense ranked 26th (34.7%, 49 third downs).
26thPIT offense23 spots apart3rdIND defense
2Steelers run game vs Colts run defense
The Steelers' run game ranks 7th in EPA per rush (-0.01, 79 rushes) against a Colts run defense ranked 28th (+0.01 allowed, 98 rushes faced).
7thPIT offense21 spots apart28thIND defense
3Steelers takeaway defense vs Colts ball security
The Steelers' takeaway defense ranks 3rd in turnovers per game (1.8 takeaways a game, 4 games) and faces a Colts ball security ranked 26th (2.0 giveaways a game, 4 games).
26thIND offense23 spots apart3rdPIT defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Colts have the ballEdge PIT · +15 ranks

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackPIT pass defense

31st-0.21144 dropbacks

PIT +15

+0.05 allowed130 dropbacks faced16th

IND run gameEPA per rushPIT run defense

3rd+0.12107 rushes

IND +14

-0.08 allowed94 rushes faced17th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Steelers have the ballEdge PIT · +21 ranks

PIT dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

28th-0.15171 dropbacks

+0.11 allowed152 dropbacks faced24th

PIT run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

7th-0.0179 rushes

PIT +21

+0.01 allowed98 rushes faced28th

Third downEdge IND · +23 ranks

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion ratePIT third-down defense

12th40.4%52 third downs

37.0% allowed46 third downs faced9th

PIT third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

26th34.7%49 third downs

IND +23

29.8% allowed47 third downs faced3rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge IND · +18 ranks

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown ratePIT red-zone defense

5th75%12 trips

IND +12

60% allowed5 trips faced17th

PIT red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

30th40%10 trips

IND +18

57% allowed14 trips faced12th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge IND · +11 ranks

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play ratePIT defense against big plays

17th9.2%251 plays

IND +11

11.2% allowed224 plays faced28th

PIT big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

16th9.2%250 plays

10.0% allowed250 plays faced22nd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

IND pass protectionsack ratePIT pass rush

15th5.6% sacked144 dropbacks

7.7% of dropbacks130 dropbacks faced8th

PIT pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

24th7.6% sacked171 dropbacks

5.9% of dropbacks152 dropbacks faced17th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge PIT · +23 ranks

IND ball securityturnovers per gamePIT takeaway defense

26th2.0 giveaways a game4 games

PIT +23

1.8 takeaways a game4 games3rd

PIT ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

23rd1.5 giveaways a game4 games

0.5 takeaways a game4 games27th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: IND 4 games, 251 offensive and 250 defensive plays · PIT 4 games, 250 offensive and 224 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jalen FarmerLG→ Quenton Nelson

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

Bryce BoettcherSLB→ Austin Ajiake

Riley NowakowskiFB→ Lew Nichols

Ben SkowronekWR→ Roman Wilson

Yahya BlackLDE→ Nick Herbig

Jamel DeanRCB→ Daylen Everette

AwayColts1 next man up · 3 questionable · 3 changes