NFC North · 2026 season

ChicagoBears

7-2record1stin North#2NFC seed+57point diffW4streak

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Biggest improvementRun defenseEPA per rush allowed23rd→11th

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.16 EPA per rush (71 rushes), 11th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: -0.03 EPA per rush (99 rushes), 23rd.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftCaleb Williams, QBoffensive snap share37%→100%

Caleb Williams has played 100% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 37% in the 5 games before. On the field in 4 of 4 and 2 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 AM ET

The Chicago Bears are 7-2 in the 2026 season, 1st in the NFC North and the No. 2 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of +57. On offense they rank 13th in the league in EPA per play (+0.037); on defense they rank 10th (-0.049 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 87% chance to make the playoffs and 5.4% to win the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears play next at home against the New Orleans Saints on Sun, Nov 22, 1 PM ET (Week 11), on Fox.

What is the Chicago Bears record?

7-2, 1st in the NFC North. Home 4-1, road 3-1, division 0-2, conference 5-2, current streak W4. Points: 241 scored, 184 allowed.

Who do the Chicago Bears play next?

The Chicago Bears play next at home against the New Orleans Saints on Sun, Nov 22, 1 PM ET (Week 11), on Fox.

What are the Chicago Bears' playoff chances?

87% to make the playoffs, 34% to win the NFC North, 11% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 12.6% to win the NFC and 5.4% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 11.5-5.5).

Who is the Chicago Bears starting quarterback?

Caleb Williams is first on the Bears depth chart at quarterback, with Tyson Bagent behind.

Who is injured for the Chicago Bears?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Case Keenum (QB, out), Kyle Monangai (RB, out, toe), Malik Muhammad II (CB, out, toe), Braxton Jones (OT, injured reserve, knee), Kentavius Street (DT, injured reserve, knee) and Zavier Scott (RB, injured reserve, wrist). Questionable: Luther Burden III (WR, questionable, concussion) and Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB, questionable, hand).

How good is the Chicago Bears offense and defense?

Offense: 13th in EPA per play (+0.037), 12th on dropbacks, 11th on runs, success rate 47.0%. Defense: 10th in EPA allowed (-0.049), 7th against the pass, 15th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Chicago Bears 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bears (updated 2026-11-10).

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From the Bears Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeCaleb Williams throws four picks, and Loveland's 38-yarder still wins it for ChicagoColston Loveland's 38-yard catch with 0:47 left carried Chicago past Tampa Bay 27-24 after Caleb Williams threw four interceptions.Nov 9, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Bears, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record7-2

Deserved6.8wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+0.2 luck wins · 14th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 7th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Bears would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games3-1decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index36%22nd most timid of 28

Flags, net−30win prob. points · 25th

Bounce & kick luck−2.1points · −0.2 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 5.7, a deserved win probability of 85%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost play action, most middle of the field in the leagueClosest twin: Vikings (68%)Clock IQ8th of 32 at managing the clockBen Johnson · 3 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real27-2

Deserved26.8-2.2

#2 seed for real, #2 seed deservedSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+2.9The market underrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 6-3 against the spread Sliding Doors0losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped37 points of win probability lost to those plays, 158 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 10Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsBears7-2 · proj 11.5-5.5 · 2nd in NFC87%▼ 1 pts

Win it all 5.4% · likeliest seed No. 5 (23%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 2 hardest of 32 · avg opp +1.9 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Bears stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.03713th

Dropback EPA+0.09312th

Rush EPA-0.03711th

Success rate47.0%8th

Defense

EPA allowed-0.04910th

Pass EPA allowed-0.0327th

Rush EPA allowed-0.08015th

Success allowed40.2%4th

Pass rate over expected: +0.4% (7th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 624 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 18.6 (11th most) · RB 20.6 (19th most) · WR 30.3 (20th most) · TE 11.4 (23rd most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 227 dropbacksC.Williams+0.194EPA / dropback+6.4CPOE8.0aDOT51%success

Quarterback · 70 dropbacksT.Bagent-0.072EPA / dropback+1.3CPOE6.9aDOT50%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
D.Swift RB	155	576	10	-0.06	43%
K.Monangai RB	60	324	3	+0.10	42%
R.Johnson RB	29	103	1	-0.19	41%
L.Burden WR	8	29	0	-0.17	50%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
L.Burden WR	65	22%	23%	7.6	644	4	+0.14
C.Loveland TE	57	20%	18%	6.9	363	2	-0.02
R.Odunze WR	51	17%	34%	14.6	540	1	+0.50
K.Raymond WR	41	14%	13%	7.0	290	1	+0.28
D.Swift RB	29	10%	-1%	-0.9	162	0	+0.09
C.Kmet TE	14	5%	4%	6.5	87	1	+0.43
R.Johnson RB	11	4%	1%	2.3	74	0	+0.47
Z.Thomas WR	10	3%	6%	12.7	54	0	+0.06

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

10WRBurden III Thomas

15WROdunze Walker

14WRRaymond

DefenseBase 4-3 D

21FSLewis Thomas

1LCBJohnson Blackwell

98LDESweat Booker

50LDTJarrett Gallimore

53MLBEdwards Sewell

6NBGordon

29RCBStevenson Sr.Muhammad II ·

97RDELynch Odeyingbo

99RDTSimmons Turner

48SLBJackson Sanborn

31SSThieneman Hicks

12WLBBush Fields II

HolderTory Taylor Kick ReturnerZavion Thomas Long SnapperScott Daly PunterTory Taylor Place KickerCairo Santos Punt ReturnerKalif Raymond

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Darnell WrightOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Joe ThuneyOL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Garrett BradburyOL	100	100	100	100	100	91	100	100	100
Jonah JacksonOL	100	100	100	100	100	65	100	100	100
Theo BenedetOL	25	26	54	100	100	78	72	100	100
Caleb WilliamsQB	100	86				100	100	100	100
Colston LovelandTE	87	86	79	92	80	88	84	93	87
Rome OdunzeWR	48	84	85	89	99	96	94	90	84
D'Andre SwiftRB	57	68	69	35	58	58	86	77	72
Kalif RaymondWR	60	62	75	51	68	47	70	69	70
Luther BurdenWR	73	57	61	56	77	39	61	57	56
Sam RoushTE	16	27	22	25	7	31	20	53	52
Salvon AhmedRB									28
Jahdae WalkerWR	45	9	6	2	9	13	4	7	21

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Dillon ThienemanDB	100	100	100	100	100	84	100	100	100
T.J. EdwardsLB	100	100	100	100	38			100	100
Jaylon JohnsonDB	96	100	100	100	100	84	100	98	99
Devin Bush Jr.LB	96	100	88	97	100	80	96	100	99
Cameron LewisDB	96	79	76		59	67	100	100	99
Jeffery SimmonsDL								87	97
Grady JarrettDL	65	71	80	69	69	71	78	51	76
Kyler GordonDB						31	57	62	76
Montez SweatDL	63	69	76	69	70			68	72
Austin BookerDL	59	37	60	62	72	75	76	57	63
Tyrique StevensonDB	79	87	8	100	51		65	89	60
James LynchDL	32	54	36		44	67	61	48	38
Clark PhillipsDB						40	9	13	34
Neville GallimoreDL	43	37	24	34	39	24	31	17	28