AFC South · 2026 season

HoustonTexans

3-5record2ndin South#11AFC seed+17point diffW1streak

BrownsSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETHOU -4.5 · O/U 39.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementOffenseEPA per play19th→2nd

Over the last 4 games the offense has posted +0.15 EPA per play (239 plays), 2nd among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: -0.03 EPA per play (250 plays), 19th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemDefensesuccess rate allowed3rd→17th

Over the last 4 games the defense has allowed a 41.9% success rate (258 plays), 17th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: a 39.4% success rate (254 plays), 3rd.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftJalen Pitre, Sdefensive snap share99%→40%

Jalen Pitre has played 40% of defensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 99% in the 4 games before. On the field in 2 of 4 and 4 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 AM ET

The Houston Texans are 3-5 in the 2026 season, 2nd in the AFC South and the No. 11 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of +17. On offense they rank 8th in the league in EPA per play (+0.060); on defense they rank 16th (+0.003 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 28% chance to make the playoffs and 0.6% to win the Super Bowl. The Houston Texans play next on the road at the Cleveland Browns on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the Houston Texans record?

3-5, 2nd in the AFC South. Home 0-4, road 3-1, division 2-1, conference 3-3, current streak W1. Points: 209 scored, 192 allowed.

Who do the Houston Texans play next?

The Houston Texans play next on the road at the Cleveland Browns on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the Houston Texans' playoff chances?

28% to make the playoffs, 3% to win the AFC South, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 1.4% to win the AFC and 0.6% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 8.3-8.7).

Who is the Houston Texans starting quarterback?

C.J. Stroud is first on the Texans depth chart at quarterback, with Davis Mills behind.

Who is injured for the Houston Texans?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: David Montgomery (RB, out, groin), Reed Blankenship (S, out, concussion) and Jaylin Noel (WR, injured reserve, toe).

How good is the Houston Texans offense and defense?

Offense: 8th in EPA per play (+0.060), 7th on dropbacks, 25th on runs, success rate 42.9%. Defense: 16th in EPA allowed (+0.003), 17th against the pass, 17th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Houston Texans 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Texans Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeStroud throws for 384 yards and five scores as Texans beat Chargers 44-22A 63-yard touchdown to Tank Dell and a pass rush that sacked the Chargers eight times turned Week 9 at SoFi Stadium into a 22-point win.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportStroud's 0.14 EPA per play meets a Chargers offense ranked lastNov 7, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Texans, judged from every snap

Due to rise−1.2 wins below what the snaps earned

Real record3-5

Deserved4.2wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

−1.2 luck wins · 29th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 12th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Texans would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games1-4decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index64%7th most timid of 28

Flags, net−14win prob. points · 20th

Bounce & kick luck+1.1points · +0.1 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Texans earned it: the snaps said Texans by 20.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost deep shots, most middle of the field in the leagueClosest twin: Commanders (75%)Clock IQ2nd of 32 at managing the clockDeMeco Ryans · 2 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real113-5

Deserved64.2-3.8

Locked out of a spot the snaps earnedSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−1.2The market has them about rightPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 3-5 against the spread Sliding Doors2losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped145 points of win probability lost to those plays, 79 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 8Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsTexans3-5 · proj 8.3-8.7 · 8th in AFC28%▲ 17 pts

Win it all 0.6% · likeliest seed No. 7 (15%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 29 hardest of 32 · avg opp -1.5 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Texans stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.0608th

Dropback EPA+0.1787th

Rush EPA-0.14425th

Success rate42.9%15th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.00316th

Pass EPA allowed+0.05317th

Rush EPA allowed-0.07617th

Success allowed40.6%8th

Pass rate over expected: -1.0% (14th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 489 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 19.6 (9th most) · RB 22.5 (13th most) · WR 39.6 (3rd most) · TE 10.4 (27th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 305 dropbacksC.Stroud+0.191EPA / dropback+1.8CPOE9.7aDOT48%success

Quarterback · 2 dropbacksD.Mills+0.217EPA / dropback-26.8CPOE5.0aDOT100%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
W.Marks RB	95	341	2	-0.14	35%
D.Montgomery RB	52	138	2	-0.35	25%
C.Stroud QB	8	13	1	+0.48	75%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
D.Schultz TE	47	17%	12%	6.4	383	0	+0.26
X.Hutchinson WR	45	17%	20%	11.4	287	2	+0.05
N.Collins WR	39	14%	19%	12.0	384	4	+0.67
K.Boutte WR	28	10%	15%	13.3	319	2	+0.56
J.Noel WR	23	9%	9%	9.8	331	2	+0.80
W.Marks RB	21	8%	1%	1.1	98	0	-0.07
F.Moreau TE	14	5%	3%	4.7	72	3	+0.38
J.Wayne WR	12	4%	7%	15.4	65	0	-0.30

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

4RBMarks Montgomery ·

69RGIngram Teller

77RTBrown Smith

86TESchultz Moreau

12WRCollins Harrison Jr.

19WRHutchinson Boutte

1WRDell Higgins

DefenseBase 4-3 D

2FSBullock Ramsey

24LCBStingley Jr.Smith

51LDEAnderson Jr.Robinson

72LDTTogiai McDonald

0MLBAl-Shaair Ossai

5NBPitre

3RCBLassiter Smith

55RDEHunter Clowney

98RDTRankins Hall

35SLBHansen Woodaz

6SSBlankenship Stewart

39WLBTo'oTo'o Speed

HolderKai Kroeger Kick ReturnerTremon Smith Long SnapperAustin Brinkman PunterKai Kroeger Place KickerKa'imi Fairbairn Punt ReturnerTank Dell

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9
Keylan RutledgeC	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Aireontae ErseryT	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Trent BrownT	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Evan BrownC	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Ed IngramG	100			100	89	100	100	100
C.J. StroudQB	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	89
Xavier HutchinsonWR	56	81	54	31	41	54	56	81
Nico CollinsWR	72			69	71	73	67	73
Woody MarksRB	51	48	37	44	85	78	89	66
Tank DellWR							23	47
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR						19	21	46
Dalton SchultzTE	66	68	54	64	52	40	57	44
Kayshon BoutteWR	46	72	69	62	59	41	31	33
Foster MoreauTE	44	29	57	36	39	62	34	27

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9
Kamari LassiterCB	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	96
Azeez Al-ShaairLB	100	100	76		100	83	100	96
Jalen PitreS	100	100	100	97	63			96
Henry To'oTo'oLB	88					99	89	96
Calen BullockS	97	100	100	96	100	93	97	94
Derek Stingley Jr.CB	100	100	100	100	98	96	100	92
M.J. StewartS						52	95	71
Will AndersonDE	88	78	80	79	68	76	80	67
Danielle HunterDE	78	83	79	77	71	73	79	65
Sheldon RankinsDT	71	73	62	73	67	63	76	51
Logan HallDE	38	37	38	38	41	30	18	44
Tommy TogiaiDT	69	58	66	64	52	77	73	40
Naquan JonesDT								39
Jadeveon ClowneyDE	34			38	48	28	38	33