NFC South · 2026 season

Tampa BayBuccaneers

3-6record3rdin South#12NFC seed+24point diffL1streak

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Biggest improvementPass defenseEPA per dropback allowed13th→1st

Over the last 4 games the pass defense has allowed -0.38 EPA per dropback (156 dropbacks), 1st among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: +0.02 EPA per dropback (179 dropbacks), 13th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemRun defenseEPA per rush allowed3rd→14th

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.12 EPA per rush (81 rushes), 14th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: -0.19 EPA per rush (99 rushes), 3rd.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftEmeka Egbuka, WRoffensive snap share86%→41%

Emeka Egbuka has played 41% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 86% in the 5 games before. On the field in 2 of 4 and 5 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:32 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-6 in the 2026 season, 3rd in the NFC South and the No. 12 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of +24. On offense they rank 28th in the league in EPA per play (-0.107); on defense they rank 1st (-0.164 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 51% chance to make the playoffs and 1.7% to win the Super Bowl. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play next on the road at the Detroit Lions on Sun, Nov 22, 1 PM ET (Week 11), on Fox.

What is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers record?

3-6, 3rd in the NFC South. Home 1-4, road 2-2, division 2-0, conference 3-3, current streak L1. Points: 202 scored, 178 allowed.

Who do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play next?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play next on the road at the Detroit Lions on Sun, Nov 22, 1 PM ET (Week 11), on Fox.

What are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' playoff chances?

51% to make the playoffs, 51% to win the NFC South, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 4.6% to win the NFC and 1.7% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 7.8-9.2).

Who is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting quarterback?

Baker Mayfield is first on the Buccaneers depth chart at quarterback, with Jalon Daniels behind.

Who is injured for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Yaya Diaby (LB, out, knee - mcl) and Jalen McMillan (WR, injured reserve, knee - pcl). Questionable: Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, questionable, ankle).

How good is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense and defense?

Offense: 28th in EPA per play (-0.107), 30th on dropbacks, 10th on runs, success rate 40.8%. Defense: 1st in EPA allowed (-0.164), 2nd against the pass, 5th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/buccaneers (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Buccaneers Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeBuccaneers lose 27-24 in Chicago despite forcing five Bears turnoversTampa Bay won the turnover count 5-2 at Soldier Field and still lost, going 2-for-12 on third down and throwing a pick-six.Nov 9, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportBuccaneers' No. 2 defense faces Caleb Williams and the Bears at Soldier FieldNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Buccaneers, judged from every snap

Due to rise−1.7 wins below what the snaps earned

Real record3-6

Deserved4.7wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

−1.7 luck wins · 31st luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 11th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Buccaneers would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games1-6decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index70%5th most timid of 28

Flags, net+2win prob. points · 12th

Bounce & kick luck+1.4points · +0.2 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 5.7, a deserved win probability of 85%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNALeast pass rate over expected, least early-down pass rate in the leagueClosest twin: Falcons (64%)Clock IQ32nd of 32 at managing the clockTodd Bowles · 11 timeouts burned · 1 half left on the table Deserved Standings

Real123-6

Deserved44.7-4.3

Locked out of a spot the snaps earnedSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+3.8The market underrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 4-4-1 against the spread Sliding Doors5losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped245 points of win probability lost to those plays, 50 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 10Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsBuccaneers3-6 · proj 7.8-9.2 · 7th in NFC51%▼ 3 pts

Win it all 1.7% · likeliest seed No. 4 (41%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 31 hardest of 32 · avg opp -2.1 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Buccaneers stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.10728th

Dropback EPA-0.19630th

Rush EPA-0.00810th

Success rate40.8%26th

Defense

EPA allowed-0.1641st

Pass EPA allowed-0.1682nd

Rush EPA allowed-0.1585th

Success allowed39.8%3rd

Pass rate over expected: -10.4% (31st most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 556 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 14.0 (28th most) · RB 15.8 (32nd most) · WR 30.0 (23rd most) · TE 14.7 (12th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 170 dropbacksB.Mayfield-0.259EPA / dropback-1.5CPOE8.4aDOT36%success

Quarterback · 123 dropbacksJ.Daniels-0.109EPA / dropback-6.6CPOE6.1aDOT39%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
B.Irving RB	167	825	7	+0.01	43%
K.Gainwell RB	63	305	0	-0.01	46%
S.Tucker RB	15	80	2	-0.30	47%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
E.Egbuka WR	54	23%	32%	10.1	278	2	-0.22
C.Otton TE	38	16%	15%	6.6	211	0	-0.12
C.Godwin WR	38	16%	9%	4.3	259	0	+0.19
B.Irving RB	28	12%	-3%	-1.8	106	1	-0.16
T.Hurst WR	25	11%	23%	15.8	168	1	-0.04
K.Gainwell RB	21	9%	-1%	-1.2	121	1	-0.14
T.Johnson WR	20	9%	23%	19.8	254	1	+0.50
P.Durham TE	2	1%	0%	3.0	5	0	-0.45

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

62CBarton Feeney

68LGBredeson Schrauth

14WRGodwin Jr.Sills V

17WRHurst III Johnson

DefenseBase 3-4 D

31FSWinfield Jr.Melifonwu

27LCBMcCollum Knowles

94LDEKancey Roberts

34LILBAnzalone Rozeboom

25NBParrish Scott

50NTVea Simmons

21RCBMorrison Garnes

91RDERobinson Capehart

45RILBTrotter Dennis

0SLBDiaby Walker

23SSSmith Killebrew

3WLBBain Jr.Muhammad

HolderRiley Dixon Kick ReturnerKameron Johnson Long SnapperEvan Deckers PunterRiley Dixon Place KickerChase McLaughlin Punt ReturnerTez Johnson

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Graham BartonC	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Ben BredesonG	100	100	100	100	100	100	90	100	100
Cody MauchG	100	100	100	100	99	100	90	100	100
Tristan WirfsT	100	100	100	100	99	100	90	97	100
Cade OttonTE	98	89	94	95	92	100	89	95	100
Luke GoedekeT	100	100	100	100	100	100		100	100
Baker MayfieldQB	100	100	94				90	100	100
Chris GodwinWR	86	86	62	89	88	92	73	82	91
Tez JohnsonWR	23	29	23	56	39	34	65	42	79
Emeka EgbukaWR	86	86	74	94	89	86			76
Bucky IrvingRB	61	78	52	59	54	85	59	50	69
Kenneth GainwellRB	46	35	46	43	36	15	30	50	38
Payne DurhamTE	12	6	55	8	38	32	46	70	21
Bauer SharpTE	2	5	9	6	6	5	25	32	12

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Zyon McCollumCB	98	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Alex AnzaloneLB	100	100	100	100	100	100	91	100	100
Tykee SmithS	97	98	97	98	98	99	91	81	100
Jacob ParrishCB	31		100	98	97	99	100	96	100
Josiah TrotterLB	91	83		83	98	100	96	85	97
Calijah KanceyDL	62	64	68	57	67	70	52	62	74
Vita VeaNT	69	62	81	77	65	84	52	75	72
Keionte ScottDB	73	57	58	47	73	66	61	72	64
Rueben BainLB	64	60			58	38	66	66	57
Anthony NelsonLB	36	26	32	47	7	10	18	30	51
Ifeatu MelifonwuS				7	98	99	98	9	49
Antoine Winfield Jr.S	97	100	100	92				96	48
A'Shawn RobinsonDL	50	53	51	48	32	37	43	53	46
Al-Quadin MuhammadLB	41	36	71	53	42	27	29	43	46

With / Without

All Buccaneers splits →

TackleLuke Goedeke100% of snapsSmall sample

-0.36Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play-0.144+0.212

Success39.4%53.4%

Points / game19.943.0

With 8 games · 498 playsWithout 1 game · 58 plays (Wk 7)

Opponents avg rating

With

CIN

CLE

MIN

DAL

PIT

ATL

CHI+1.5

Without

CAR-0.7

Opponents in the games with him were 2.2 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Emeka Egbuka WR · 1/1

With games:Baker Mayfield QB · 3/8, Emeka Egbuka WR · 1/8, Jacob Parrish CB · 1/8, Yaya Diaby EDGE · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 3-6)-0.115From Wk 7 on (Wks 7-9)-0.060

CornerbackJacob Parrish90% of snapsSmall sample

+0.19Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed-0.184+0.009

Success allowed39.4%43.4%

Points allowed19.423.0

With 8 games · 462 playsWithout 1 game · 53 plays (Wk 2)

Opponents avg rating

With

CIN

MIN

DAL

PIT

CAR

ATL

CHI+1.8

Without

CLE-2.9

Opponents in the games with him were 4.8 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Baker Mayfield QB · 3/8, Emeka Egbuka WR · 2/8, Luke Goedeke OT · 1/8, Yaya Diaby EDGE · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wk 1)-0.002From Wk 2 on (Wks 2-5)-0.073

Wide receiverEmeka Egbuka84% of snapsSmall sample

-0.16Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play-0.141+0.021

Success39.0%47.9%

Points / game20.429.5

With 7 games · 439 playsWithout 2 games · 117 plays (Wks 7, 8)

Opponents avg rating

With

CIN

CLE

MIN

DAL

PIT

CHI+2.2

Without

CAR

ATL-1.9

Opponents in the games with him were 4.1 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

Without games:Luke Goedeke OT · 1/2

With games:Baker Mayfield QB · 3/7, Jacob Parrish CB · 1/7, Yaya Diaby EDGE · 1/7

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 3-6)-0.115From Wk 7 on (Wks 7-9)-0.060

Edge rusherYaya Diaby53% of snapsOutSmall sample

-0.11Observed difference
EPA allowed, better without

EPA allowed-0.111-0.218

Success allowed40.7%43.1%

Points allowed21.627.0

With 7 games · 405 playsWithout 1 game · 58 plays (Wk 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

CIN

CLE

MIN

DAL

PIT

CAR+1.5

Without

CHI+4.3

Opponents in the games with him were 2.7 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

With games:Baker Mayfield QB · 3/7, Emeka Egbuka WR · 1/7, Jacob Parrish CB · 1/7, Luke Goedeke OT · 1/7

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 5-8)-0.250From Wk 9 on (Wk 9)-0.218

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key Buccaneers starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Zyon McCollumCornerback · 9/9 games100%
Alex AnzaloneLinebacker · 9/9 games99%
Tristan WirfsTackle · 9/9 games98%
Tykee SmithSafety · 9/9 games95%
Cade OttonTight end · 9/9 games95%
Chris Godwin Jr.Wide receiver · 9/9 games83%
Vita VeaInterior line · 9/9 games71%
Bucky IrvingRunning back · 9/9 games63%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps · all 9 starters →

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

Yaya DiabyLB · #0 · Knee - MCLOut
Jalen McMillanWR · #11 · Knee - PCLIR

Questionable

Antoine Winfield Jr.S · #31 · AnkleQuestionable

NFC South

Full standings

PanthersDiv 1-1 · Home 1-3 · Road 2-23-5-20 2

SaintsDiv 0-1 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-13-5-31 3

BuccaneersDiv 2-0 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-23-6+24 4

FalconsDiv 1-2 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-23-6-35