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InjuryDohnte Meyers: Active → Clearedjust nowPro Football RumorsFalcons To Sign Jake Moody Off Ravens’ Practice Squad, Release Nick FolkPro Football RumorsBroncos TE Evan Engram Generating Trade Interest49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoArizona CardinalsYou've Got Mail: Banged Up But Battling ForwardInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful18 min agoPro Football RumorsPatriots WR A.J. Brown Could Miss Week 10 With Knee IssueBaltimore RavensJesse Minter Could Shake Up Ravens DefenseInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoESPNBengals trade for Eagles LB Arnold Ebiketie, sources saySaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score44 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out51 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score55 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
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The Verdict2026 · AFC West · through Week 9

Chargers logoLos Angeles ChargersThe Verdict

Chargers are 0-8; the play says 1.0 wins. That record is 1.0 wins behind how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes in their favor. They are 0-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Jim Harbaugh kicked away 7 of 8 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 28th of 32−1.00-8 real · 1.0 deserved · 1.6 Pythagorean
Luck points · 22nd of 32−4.9fumble bounces −6.3 · opponents' kicks +1.4
Chicken Index · 3rd of 3288%Jim Harbaugh · 5.8 expected points lost on 42 graded calls
Flags net · 9th of 32+38.6 WP66 flags for 540 yards against · 67 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Texans logoTexans45% success · +0.28 EPA/play
4422
Chargers logoChargers36% success · −0.14 EPA/play

Texans earned it: the snaps said Texans by 20.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginHOU by 20.7
Real marginHOU by 22
Luck pts HOU+0.6
Luck pts LAC−3.9

The swingQ2 4:37 · HOU · +18 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 1-T.Dell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Chargers logoChargers28% success · −0.45 EPA/play
924
Rams logoRams45% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Rams earned it: the snaps said Rams by 18.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginLAR by 18.3
Real marginLAR by 15
Luck pts LAC−0.3
Luck pts LAR−1.0

The swingQ1 7:22 · LAC · −21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Lake at LA 36. 37-Q.Lake to LAC 19 for 45 yards (1-Q.Johnston). Penalty on LAC-15-L.McConkey, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games0-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−6.3 ptsKept 4 of 11 own fumbles; won 4 of 8 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+1.4 ptsOpponents made 17 of 20 field goals against an expected 17.2, and 22 of 24 extra points.
Own kicking−0.3 ptsMade 15 of 17 field goals against 15.1 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.22432nd of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them7-0Our pregame model in Chargers games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Jim Harbaugh · 42 graded fourth downs · went for it 16×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 4.9 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1LAC · 4th & 2Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at own 48, Wk 5 Q1 4:12, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.07 EP
  2. 2LAC · 4th & 2Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at own 40, Wk 6 Q2 5:39, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP
  3. 3LAC · 4th & 7Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 9 Q1 0:47, down 7. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
  4. 4LAC · 4th & 2Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at own 28, Wk 2 Q4 8:26, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP
  5. 5LAC · 4th & 4Jim Harbaugh chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 6 Q1 1:38, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.49 EP
  6. 6LAC · 4th & 3Jim Harbaugh chose Punt at own 38, Wk 4 Q1 8:20, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.42 EP
  7. 7LAC · 4th & 10Jim Harbaugh chose Go for it at own 45, Wk 3 Q4 5:14, down 4. Model: Punt (lean). Result: stopped.−0.41 EP
  8. 8LAC · 4th & 3Jim Harbaugh chose Field goal at opp 40, Wk 2 Q1 11:44, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: missed.−0.37 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1LAC · 4th & 1Jim Harbaugh chose Go for it at own 41, Wk 5 Q4 10:33, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 3 · opp 34 · Q1 6:199Field goalField goal (toss-up)1.47-0.111.58✓good
4th & 7 · opp 41 · Q1 0:479PuntField goal0.28-0.160.55−0.71punted
4th & 15 · opp 15 · Q2 8:169Field goalField goal0.74–2.80✓good
4th & 7 · opp 24 · Q2 5:149Field goalField goal1.39–2.46✓good
4th & 11 · own 22 · Q2 3:019PuntPunt-2.43-1.49–✓punted
4th & 14 · own 21 · Q2 1:179Puntnot graded-2.67-1.55–punted
4th & 14 · own 26 · Q2 0:109Puntnot graded-2.33-1.27–punted
4th & 2 · own 41 · Q3 6:329Go for itnot graded0.27-0.59–stopped
4th & 1 · own 20 · Q3 2:419Go for itnot graded-0.46-1.61–converted
4th & 13 · opp 15 · Q4 4:249Go for itnot graded1.66–2.80touchdown
4th & 10 · own 35 · Q4 1:159Go for itnot graded-1.50-0.83–stopped
4th & 7 · own 26 · Q1 14:048PuntPunt-1.80-1.27–✓punted
4th & 13 · 50 · Q1 10:508PuntPunt-0.74-0.32–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 16 · Q1 0:088Field goalGo for it3.09–2.78−0.31good
4th & 3 · opp 28 · Q2 10:118Field goalField goal1.87–2.19✓good
4th & 3 · opp 23 · Q2 2:008Field goalField goal2.21–2.52✓good
4th & 5 · own 45 · Q3 8:598PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.30-0.46–−0.16punted
4th & 21 · own 26 · Q3 0:298Puntnot graded-2.58-1.27–punted
4th & 8 · opp 24 · Q4 6:428Go for itnot graded1.28–2.46stopped
4th & 11 · own 28 · Q1 10:406PuntPunt-2.03-1.16–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 5 · Q1 1:386Field goalGo for it3.42–2.93−0.49good
4th & 2 · own 40 · Q2 5:396PuntGo for it0.20-0.63–−0.83punted
4th & 2 · own 24 · Q2 0:366Puntnot graded-0.80-1.38–punted
4th & 12 · opp 12 · Q3 10:486Field goalnot graded1.06–2.86good
4th & 9 · own 2 · Q3 4:346Puntnot graded-3.72-2.94–punted
4th & 12 · own 39 · Q3 2:266Puntnot graded-1.38-0.67–punted
4th & 6 · opp 43 · Q4 13:526Go for itnot graded0.29-0.190.20stopped
4th & 22 · opp 40 · Q4 1:286Go for itnot graded-0.41-0.150.71converted
4th & 5 · opp 8 · Q4 1:006Go for itnot graded3.05–2.91stopped
4th & 2 · own 48 · Q1 4:125PuntGo for it0.70-0.37–−1.07punted
4th & 17 · own 41 · Q2 15:005PuntPunt-1.48-0.59–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 24 · Q2 8:215Field goalField goal1.11–2.46✓good
4th & 10 · own 27 · Q2 1:295Puntnot graded-2.02-1.21–punted
4th & 10 · own 13 · Q3 1:265PuntPunt-2.98-2.07–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 10 · Q4 13:165PuntPunt-3.63-2.29–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 41 · Q4 10:335Go for itGo for it0.84-0.59–✓stopped
4th & 6 · own 31 · Q4 3:265Go for itnot graded-1.34-1.01–stopped
4th & 4 · opp 22 · Q1 11:584Field goalField goal2.02–2.57✓good
4th & 3 · own 38 · Q1 8:204PuntGo for it-0.28-0.71–−0.42punted
4th & 12 · opp 45 · Q1 2:404PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.37-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 11 · own 20 · Q2 14:204PuntPunt-2.57-1.61–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 18 · Q2 10:304PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.83-1.73–✓punted
4th & 19 · own 31 · Q2 3:374PuntPunt-2.19-1.01–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 14 · Q3 5:544Go for itnot graded2.59–2.82converted
4th & 7 · own 10 · Q4 3:284Go for itnot graded-2.90-2.29–converted
4th & 9 · own 30 · Q1 6:093PuntPunt-1.74-1.06–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 13 · Q1 0:373Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.93–2.84−0.09good
4th & 3 · opp 27 · Q2 10:263Field goalField goal1.94–2.27✓missed
4th & 15 · own 44 · Q2 4:153PuntPunt-1.21-0.49–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q3 6:153Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94✓good
4th & 10 · own 30 · Q3 1:443PuntPunt-1.82-1.06–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 45 · Q4 5:143Go for itPunt-0.87-0.46–−0.41stopped
4th & 7 · opp 15 · Q4 1:593Field goalnot graded2.01–2.80good
4th & 3 · opp 40 · Q1 11:442Field goalGo for it1.09-0.150.71−0.37missed
4th & 8 · own 32 · Q1 5:412PuntPunt-1.52-0.96–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 5 · Q2 13:212PuntPunt-3.13-2.68–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 31 · Q2 0:422Puntnot graded-0.35-1.01–punted
4th & 5 · own 28 · Q3 1:402PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.38-1.16–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 28 · Q4 8:262PuntGo for it-0.54-1.16–−0.62punted
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q2 2:001Go for itField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94−0.15stopped
4th & 5 · own 42 · Q3 12:141PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.49-0.56–−0.07punted
4th & 16 · own 18 · Q3 0:181PuntPunt-2.97-1.73–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 19 · Q4 12:281PuntPunt-2.63-1.67–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 23 · Q4 4:171Go for itnot graded-2.69-1.43–stopped
4th & 7 · own 38 · Q4 2:001Go for itnot graded-1.03-0.71–stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Holding on LAC in Week 3, worth +11 points of win probability to BUF.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive HoldingLAC → helped BUF · Wk 3 Q4 9:36 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by…+10.7 WP
  2. 2Face MaskLAC → helped HOU · Wk 9 Q1 13:14 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz (2-E.Molden). PENALTY on LAC-4-T.Still, Face Mask,…+8.0 WP
  3. 3Illegal Use of HandsLAC → helped LV · Wk 2 Q4 13:36 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 49 for 4 yards (22-G.Smith). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Use of…+7.6 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessLAC → helped SEA · Wk 4 Q4 1:03 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by…+7.0 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceLAC → helped DEN · Wk 5 Q2 1:21 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards,…+6.1 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
False Start209327.7
Offensive Holding1615423.4
Defensive Pass Interference49018.7
Defensive Holding42014.2
Face Mask3329.1
Unnecessary Roughness3408.6
Illegal Use of Hands157.6
Illegal Block Above the Waist2205.9

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Too Many Men on FieldLV → helped LAC · Wk 2 Q4 3:52 · (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.+17.8 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingBUF → helped LAC · Wk 3 Q4 10:30 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LAC 4 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding,…+9.1 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceARI → helped LAC · Wk 1 Q3 7:25 · 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 9-T.Harris. PENALTY on ARI-16-M.Melton, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards,…+8.6 WP
  4. 4False StartBUF → helped LAC · Wk 3 Q3 4:21 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-79-S.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 43 - No Play.+6.1 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingKC → helped LAC · Wk 6 Q1 12:37 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-65-Tr.Smith, Offensive…+5.9 WP

Garbage Time Tax

33.2% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 1st most of 32

Bottom lineQuentin Johnston: 160 of 260 yards (62%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Justin HerbertLAC · passing · 1,591 yds39%
Omarion HamptonLAC · rushing · 369 yds19%
Ladd McConkeyLAC · receiving · 286 yds12%
Tre' HarrisLAC · receiving · 262 yds32%
Quentin JohnstonLAC · receiving · 260 yds62%

Our picks on the Chargers

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Chargers 31% at home against texans. 44-22 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Chargers 19% at rams. 9-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Chargers 15% at chiefs. 6-22 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Chargers 47% at home against broncos. 23-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Chargers 18% at seahawks. 23-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Chargers 21% at bills. 16-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Chargers 34% at home against raiders. 26-14 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Los Angeles Chargers verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chargers/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.