Seahawks 31, Commanders 33: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Northwest StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	0	10	7	14	31
WSH	7	10	7	9	33

Home · 2-5-1WashingtonCommanders33

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

The Washington Commanders beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-31 on Sun, Sep 27 at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Seahawks 5-4, Commanders 2-5-1. S.Darnold (SEA) led all players with +5.7 EPA on 46 dropbacks.

Who won Seahawks vs Commanders?

The Washington Commanders won 33-31. By quarter: SEA 0-10-7-14, WSH 7-10-7-9.

Who was the best player in Seahawks vs Commanders?

By expected points added: S.Darnold (SEA, +5.7 EPA on 46 dropbacks), T.McLaurin (WAS, +5.2 EPA on 9 targets) and C.Kupp (SEA, +3.6 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Seahawks vs Commanders?

The biggest swing in win probability (34 points toward the Commanders) came in Q4 at 3:57: S.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.W

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Seahawks 31, Commanders 33: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-sea-at-wsh (updated 2026-11-11).

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The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3Coin flipGame file →

Seahawks50% success · −0.07 EPA/play

3133

Commanders32% success · −0.08 EPA/play

SEA 45% deserveddeserved 55% WSH

Commanders earned it: the snaps said Commanders by 0.7, a deserved win probability of 55%.

Deserved marginWSH by 0.7

Real marginWSH by 2

Luck pts SEA−0.8

Luck pts WSH−1.2

The swingQ4 4:09 · SEA · −29 pts of win probability. 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped WAS · Wk 3 Q4 10:35 · (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley,…+9.6 WP
2Illegal FormationSEA → helped WAS · Wk 3 Q4 4:24 · (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update:…+7.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1WAS · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 42, Wk 3 Q3 13:30, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.89 EP
2SEA · 4th & 2Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 28, Wk 3 Q1 7:37, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA154 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 7 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCarl Cheffers17 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: SEA by 8.5 · Snaps: WSH by 0.7Commanders covered; the snaps agree

31@33

Week 3

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Seahawks after the play5%what really happened

Q4 4:09 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

WSH ▲SEA ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+34%Q4 3:57 · for WSHS.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
+22%Q4 1:55 · for WSH(Shotgun) R.White right end to SEA 47 for 19 yards (J.Jobe).
+15%Q4 1:36 · for WSH(Shotgun) M.Mariota right end to SEA 35 for 9 yards (J.Jobe).
+14%Q4 8:40 · for WSH(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 6 yards (J.Jobe).
+13%Q3 10:43 · for WSH(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass deep left to T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.

Every drive, on the field

WSH attacks →← SEA attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT4p · 11y · 2:32
Q1 12:28PUNT3p · 6y · 1:22
Q1 11:06FUM1p · 1y · 0:06
Q1 11:00TD4p · 21y · 1:52
Q1 9:08PUNT3p · 8y · 1:39
Q1 7:29PUNT7p · 21y · 4:04
Q1 3:25TD9p · 90y · 4:58
Q2 13:27PUNT3p · -1y · 2:08
Q2 11:19PUNT3p · 1y · 0:58
Q2 10:21TD8p · 60y · 3:34
Q2 6:47DOWNS12p · 78y · 5:07
Q2 1:40PUNT3p · 0y · 0:27
Q2 1:13FG4p · 2y · 0:21
Q2 0:52FG5p · 26y · 0:52
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 8y · 1:36
Q3 13:24INT3p · 14y · 1:22
Q3 12:02TD3p · 43y · 1:19
Q3 10:43TD8p · 60y · 4:38
Q3 6:05PUNT3p · 5y · 1:01
Q3 5:04PUNT3p · 1y · 0:49
Q3 4:15PUNT5p · 6y · 3:03
Q3 1:12TD7p · 80y · 4:19
Q4 11:53FG12p · 42y · 7:19
Q4 4:34INT3p · 21y · 0:37
Q4 3:57TD5p · 68y · 1:06
Q4 2:51END8p · 30y · 2:51

Seahawks13 drives6scoring drives (5 TD)46%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position3three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Commanders12 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 37avg starting field position5three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:08Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short middle to R.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.0–7
Q2
13:27Touchdown(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short right to J.Smith-Njigba for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.7–7
Q2
6:47Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short middle to T.Burks for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [L.Williams]. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.7–14
Q2
0:52Field goalJ.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.10–14
Q2
0:00Field goalD.Stevens 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.10–17
Q3
10:43Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass deep left to T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.10–24
Q3
6:05Fumble Recovery (Own)Eric Saubert 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)17–24
Q4
11:53Touchdown(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.24–24
Q4
4:34Field goalD.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.24–27
Q4
3:57TouchdownS.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.24–33
Q4
2:51Touchdown(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short right to C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.31–33

Team stats

SEAvsWSH

437Total yards258

393Passing yards176

44Rushing yards82

6.8Yards per play4.0

28First downs17

3-9 · 33%Third down3-13 · 23%

0-1Fourth down1-1

4-5Red zone TDs2-3

32/46Comp / att19/31

2.4Yards per carry2.6

3Turnovers0

0Sacks allowed2 (−7 yds)

8 for 53Penalties9 for 57

28:32Possession31:28

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.046-0.080

Dropback EPA+0.141+0.075

Rush EPA-0.564-0.274

Success rate50%32%

Explosive plays53

Plays6463

Who moved the needle

S.DarnoldDropbacks: 46+5.7

T.McLaurinTargets: 9+5.2

C.KuppTargets: 5+3.6

T.HortonTargets: 3+3.6

J.Smith-NjigbaTargets: 14+3.4

M.MariotaDropbacks: 35+2.6

Cost their side the most

A.BarnerTargets: 9-8.4

J.Croskey-MerrittCarries: 19-7.2

J.PriceCarries: 5-6.0

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Sam DarnoldQB	31/45	379	8.4	4	2	0-0	51.4	105.7
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	1/1	14	14.0	0	0	0-0	62.5	118.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jadarian PriceRB	5	15	3.0	11
Emanuel WilsonRB	9	14	1.6	7
George HolaniRB	3	10	3.3	5
Sam DarnoldQB	1	5	5.0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	10	14	128	12.8	2	26
AJ BarnerTE	5	9	69	13.8	0	32
Tory HortonWR	3	3	48	16.0	0	17
George HolaniRB	5	5	48	9.6	0	14
Cooper KuppWR	4	5	46	11.5	1	19
Brady RussellFB	1	1	20	20.0	0	20
Rashid ShaheedWR	2	3	14	7.0	0	9
Eric SaubertTE	1	2	13	13.0	1	13
Jadarian PriceRB	1	3	7	7.0	0	7

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Drake ThomasLB	9	5	0	1	0	0
Ernest Jones IVLB	8	3	0	0	1	0
Byron Murphy IIDT	7	2	0	0	0	1
Jarran ReedDT	7	0	0	0	0	0
Devon WitherspoonCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Josh JobeCB	6	4	0	0	0	0
DeMarcus LawrenceLB	5	2	0	1	0	3
Derick HallLB	4	2	1	1	0	2
Brady RussellFB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Leonard WilliamsDT	3	2	1	2	0	3

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason MyersPK	1/1	100.0	57	4/4	7

Washington Commanders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Marcus MariotaQB	19/31	183	5.9	3	0	2-7	65.6	110.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB	19	36	1.9	9
Rachaad WhiteRB	8	35	4.4	19
Marcus MariotaQB	5	11	2.2	9

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Terry McLaurinWR	6	9	77	12.8	1	30
Stefon DiggsWR	4	7	33	8.3	0	11
Jaylin LaneWR	1	1	21	21.0	0	21
Antonio WilliamsWR	2	4	15	7.5	0	9
Treylon BurksWR	2	2	13	6.5	1	11
John BatesTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Rachaad WhiteRB	1	1	6	6.0	1	6
Colson YankoffTE	1	2	2	2.0	0	2
Dyami BrownWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ben SinnottTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jeremy ReavesS	7	5	0	1	0
Amik RobertsonCB	6	4	0	4	0
Quan MartinS	5	4	0	0	0
Sonny StylesLB	5	4	0	2	1
Kain MedranoLB	5	3	0	1	1
Joshua JosephsLB	5	2	1	0	0
Odafe OwehLB	5	0	0	0	2
Percy ButlerS	4	3	0	0	0
Rasul DouglasCB	3	3	0	1	0
K'Lavon ChaissonLB	3	3	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Drew StevensPK	2/2	100.0	57	3/4	9

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Commanders pass protection vs Seahawks pass rush
The Commanders' pass protection ranks 2nd in sack rate (1.2% sacked, 81 dropbacks) against a Seahawks pass rush ranked 15th (6.8% of dropbacks, 73 dropbacks faced).
2ndWSH offense13 spots apart15thSEA defense

When the Seahawks have the ballEdge SEA · +25 ranks

SEA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackWSH pass defense

3rd+0.4154 dropbacks

SEA +25

+0.32 allowed69 dropbacks faced28th

SEA run gameEPA per rushWSH run defense

24th-0.1760 rushes

WSH +12

-0.17 allowed36 rushes faced12th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Commanders have the ballEdge SEA · +9 ranks

WSH dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSEA pass defense

13th+0.1581 dropbacks

-0.08 allowed73 dropbacks faced9th

WSH run gameEPA per rushSEA run defense

11th-0.0654 rushes

SEA +9

-0.40 allowed41 rushes faced2nd

Third downNo big edge

SEA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateWSH third-down defense

20th37.5%24 third downs

52.0% allowed25 third downs faced27th

WSH third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSEA third-down defense

11th44.8%29 third downs

32.1% allowed28 third downs faced9th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge WSH · +10 ranks

SEA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateWSH red-zone defense

25th43%7 trips

71% allowed7 trips faced20th

WSH red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSEA red-zone defense

7th71%7 trips

WSH +10

67% allowed3 trips faced17th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SEA · +19 ranks

SEA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateWSH defense against big plays

13th10.5%114 plays

10.5% allowed105 plays faced20th

WSH big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSEA defense against big plays

20th8.9%135 plays

SEA +19

3.5% allowed114 plays faced1st

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge WSH · +13 ranks

SEA pass protectionsack rateWSH pass rush

12th5.6% sacked54 dropbacks

7.2% of dropbacks69 dropbacks faced12th

WSH pass protectionsack rateSEA pass rush

2nd1.2% sacked81 dropbacks

WSH +13

6.8% of dropbacks73 dropbacks faced15th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge SEA · +26 ranks

SEA ball securityturnovers per gameWSH takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

SEA +26

0.0 takeaways a game2 games30th

WSH ball securityturnovers per gameSEA takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

2.0 takeaways a game2 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: SEA 2 games, 114 offensive and 114 defensive plays · WSH 2 games, 135 offensive and 105 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Drew LockQB→ Sam Darnold

Zach CharbonnetRB→ George Holani

Brady RussellFB→ Emanuel Wilson

Josh JonesLT→ Charles Cross

Anthony BradfordRG→ Christian Haynes

Julian LoveFS→ AJ Finley

Ty OkadaSS→ Rodney Thomas II

Jayden DanielsQB→ Marcus Mariota

Rachaad WhiteRB→ Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Treylon BurksWR→ Terry McLaurin

Chig OkonkwoTE→ John Bates