Dolphins 10, Vikings 15: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · U.S. Bank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	0	0	10	0	10
MIN	3	6	3	3	15

Home · 6-2MinnesotaVikings15

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:34 AM ET

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Miami Dolphins 15-10 on Sun, Oct 4 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Dolphins 1-7, Vikings 6-2. T.Hockenson (MIN) led all players with +11.2 EPA on 13 targets.

Who won Dolphins vs Vikings?

The Minnesota Vikings won 15-10. By quarter: MIA 0-0-10-0, MIN 3-6-3-3.

Who was the best player in Dolphins vs Vikings?

By expected points added: T.Hockenson (MIN, +11.2 EPA on 13 targets), O.Gordon (MIA, +6.6 EPA on 9 carries) and M.Washington (MIA, +3.6 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Dolphins vs Vikings?

The biggest swing in win probability (7 points toward the Vikings) came in Q4 at 4:22: (Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (C.Johnson; J.Brents).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Dolphins 10, Vikings 15: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-mia-at-min (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4Coin flipGame file →

Dolphins35% success · −0.15 EPA/play

1015

Vikings39% success · −0.07 EPA/play

MIA 42% deserveddeserved 58% MIN

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 1.2, a deserved win probability of 58%.

Deserved marginMIN by 1.2

Real marginMIN by 5

Luck pts MIA−3.9

Luck pts MIN+1.9

The swingQ3 14:08 · MIA · +11 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (7-B.Murphy; 22-H.Smith).

Flags that moved this game

1Illegal Block Above the WaistMIA → helped MIN · Wk 4 Q1 13:00 · 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist,…+3.1 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessMIN → helped MIA · Wk 4 Q2 7:04 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at MIA 31 for 3 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-97-D.Orange, Unnecessary Roughness,…+3.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIN · 4th & 6Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at opp 48, Wk 4 Q1 13:00, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.25 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA136 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAdrian Hill20 accepted flags in this game · 16.9 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: MIN by 10 · Snaps: MIN by 1.2Dolphins covered; the snaps agree

10@15

Week 4

If the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-1

Dolphins after the play21%what really happened

Q4 10:08 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

MIN ▲MIA ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+7%Q4 4:22 · for MIN(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (C.Johnson; J.Brents).
+6%Q4 10:08 · for MINA.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (J.Uche; J.Brooks).
+6%Q3 0:11 · for MIAO.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
+6%Q3 14:08 · for MIA(Shotgun) O.Gordon left tackle pushed ob at MIN 11 for 53 yards (B.Murphy; H.Smith).
+5%Q4 3:01 · for MIN(Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep right to T.Hockenson to MIA 15 for 22 yards (J.Brooks).

Every drive, on the field

MIN attacks →← MIA attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 4y · 2:10
Q1 12:50PUNT4p · 16y · 1:59
Q1 10:51FG6p · 9y · 2:57
Q1 7:54PUNT8p · 26y · 5:15
Q1 2:39PUNT6p · 1y · 3:33
Q2 14:06PUNT3p · 6y · 1:51
Q2 12:15FG10p · 50y · 5:07
Q2 7:08FUM3p · 20y · 1:23
Q2 5:45PUNT3p · 2y · 0:50
Q2 4:55PUNT3p · 3y · 2:12
Q2 2:43FG10p · 61y · 2:43
Q3 15:00FG7p · 60y · 3:04
Q3 11:56FG10p · 42y · 5:21
Q3 6:35PUNT3p · 5y · 2:24
Q3 4:11PUNT3p · -2y · 2:19
Q3 1:52TD4p · 55y · 1:41
Q3 0:11FG15p · 60y · 8:30
Q4 6:41PUNT3p · 2y · 1:00
Q4 5:41END11p · 74y · 5:41

Dolphins9 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)22%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position4three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Vikings9 drives5scoring drives (0 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 35avg starting field position3three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:54Field goalW.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.0–3
Q2
7:08Field goalW.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.0–6
Q2
0:00Field goalW.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.0–9
Q3
11:56Field goalR.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.3–9
Q3
6:35Field goalW.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.3–12
Q3
0:11TouchdownO.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.10–12
Q4
6:41Field goal W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.10–15

Team stats

MIAvsMIN

198Total yards336

77Passing yards213

121Rushing yards123

5.4Yards per play4.7

8First downs20

2-9 · 22%Third down8-18 · 44%

0-0Fourth down1-1

1-2Red zone TDs0-3

9/17Comp / att27/37

6.7Yards per carry4.0

1Turnovers0

2 (−8 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−34 yds)

9 for 55Penalties11 for 85

20:49Possession39:11

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.204-0.047

Dropback EPA-0.530-0.018

Rush EPA+0.180-0.094

Success rate35%39%

Explosive plays36

Plays3769

Who moved the needle

T.HockensonTargets: 13+11.2

O.GordonCarries: 9+6.6

M.WashingtonTargets: 5+3.6

J.AddisonTargets: 6+1.1

D.ClaiborneCarries: 3-0.5

K.MurrayDropbacks: 43-0.8

Cost their side the most

M.WillisDropbacks: 20-10.6

K.MurrayCarries: 4-5.5

C.BellTargets: 3-3.9

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Malik WillisQB	9/17	85	5.0	0	0	2-8	39.1	67.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ollie Gordon IIRB	9	100	11.1	1	53
Malik WillisQB	2	11	5.5	0	8
Jaylen WrightRB	5	7	1.4	0	7
Malik WashingtonWR	2	3	1.5	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Malik WashingtonWR	5	5	67	13.4	17
Will KacmarekTE	1	2	15	15.0	15
Kevin Coleman Jr.WR	1	4	3	3.0	3
Jalen TolbertWR	0	1	0	0.0	0
Ollie Gordon IIRB	2	2	0	0.0	0
Chris BellWR	0	3	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jacob RodriguezLB	18	9	0	0	0	0
Jordyn BrooksLB	13	5	0	0	1	0
Michael TaaffeS	6	4	0	0	0	0
Josh UcheLB	6	2	1	1	0	1
JuJu BrentsCB	6	1	0	0	0	0
Dante Trader Jr.S	5	3	0	0	0	0
Chris JohnsonCB	5	1	0	0	0	0
Zeek BiggersDT	4	2	0	0	0	1
Zach SielerDT	3	3	2	2	0	2
Zayne AndersonS	3	3	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Riley Patterson	1/1	100.0	27	1/1	4

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kyler MurrayQB	27/37	247	6.7	0	0	4-34	30.5	90.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	20	94	4.7	19
Kyler MurrayQB	6	16	2.7	8
Demond ClaiborneRB	3	12	4.0	8
Myles PriceWR	1	2	2.0	2
Jordan AddisonWR	1	-1	-1.0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
T.J. HockensonTE	13	13	119	9.2	22
Jordan AddisonWR	4	6	52	13.0	27
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	4	8	34	8.5	15
Tai FeltonWR	1	1	14	14.0	14
DeeJay DallasRB	1	1	10	10.0	10
Jauan JenningsWR	1	1	8	8.0	8
Myles PriceWR	2	2	6	3.0	5
Gavin BartholomewTE	1	1	4	4.0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Blake CashmanLB	8	3	0	0	0	1
Joshua MetellusS	5	3	0	0	1	0
Eric WilsonLB	4	0	0	0	0	0
Dallas TurnerLB	3	3	2	1	0	2
Jalen RedmondDT	3	2	0	0	0	0
Kyle Van NoyLB	2	2	0	2	0	0
Jake GoldayLB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Andrew Van GinkelLB	2	1	0	0	0	0
Byron Murphy Jr.CB	2	1	0	0	0	0
Theo JacksonS	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	5/5	100.0	50	0/0	15

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Vikings run defense vs Dolphins run game
The Vikings' run defense ranks 2nd in EPA per rush (-0.32 allowed, 67 rushes faced) and faces a Dolphins run game ranked 30th (-0.28, 66 rushes).
30thMIA offense28 spots apart2ndMIN defense
2Vikings pass rush vs Dolphins pass protection
The Vikings' pass rush ranks 1st in sack rate (10.5% of dropbacks, 133 dropbacks faced) and faces a Dolphins pass protection ranked 28th (8.4% sacked, 107 dropbacks).
28thMIA offense27 spots apart1stMIN defense
3Vikings pass defense vs Dolphins dropback offense
The Vikings' pass defense ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback (-0.11 allowed, 133 dropbacks faced) and faces a Dolphins dropback offense ranked 22nd (-0.04, 107 dropbacks).
22ndMIA offense20 spots apart2ndMIN defense

When the Dolphins have the ballEdge MIN · +28 ranks

MIA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIN pass defense

22nd-0.04107 dropbacks

MIN +20

-0.11 allowed133 dropbacks faced2nd

MIA run gameEPA per rushMIN run defense

30th-0.2866 rushes

MIN +28

-0.32 allowed67 rushes faced2nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Vikings have the ballEdge MIA · +14 ranks

MIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIA pass defense

25th-0.0989 dropbacks

+0.48 allowed81 dropbacks faced32nd

MIN run gameEPA per rushMIA run defense

23rd-0.1576 rushes

MIA +14

-0.17 allowed79 rushes faced9th

Third downEdge MIN · +11 ranks

MIA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIN third-down defense

12th43.9%41 third downs

MIN +11

25.0% allowed44 third downs faced1st

MIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIA third-down defense

30th32.6%43 third downs

53.8% allowed26 third downs faced28th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge MIN · +28 ranks

MIA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIN red-zone defense

29th33%6 trips

MIN +28

11% allowed9 trips faced1st

MIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIA red-zone defense

9th67%6 trips

MIN +22

79% allowed14 trips faced31st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge MIA · +8 ranks

MIA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIN defense against big plays

11th9.8%173 plays

MIA +8

10.0% allowed200 plays faced19th

MIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIA defense against big plays

29th6.7%165 plays

11.3% allowed160 plays faced26th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge MIN · +27 ranks

MIA pass protectionsack rateMIN pass rush

28th8.4% sacked107 dropbacks

MIN +27

10.5% of dropbacks133 dropbacks faced1st

MIN pass protectionsack rateMIA pass rush

31st10.1% sacked89 dropbacks

0.0% of dropbacks81 dropbacks faced32nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge MIN · +17 ranks

MIA ball securityturnovers per gameMIN takeaway defense

19th1.3 giveaways a game3 games

MIN +17

2.0 takeaways a game3 games2nd

MIN ball securityturnovers per gameMIA takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game3 games

1.0 takeaways a game3 games14th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: MIA 3 games, 173 offensive and 160 defensive plays · MIN 3 games, 165 offensive and 200 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Kyle McCordQB→ Malik Willis

Caleb DouglasWR→ Kevin Coleman Jr.

Greg DulcichTE→ Will Kacmarek

Kenneth GrantLDT→ Zach Sieler

Willie Gay Jr.SLB→ Jordan Phillips

Kirk CousinsQB→ Kyler Murray

Jordan MasonRB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Justin JeffersonWR→ Tai Felton

Caleb BanksNT→ Kyle Van Noy

James PierreRCB→ Theo Jackson

AwayDolphins5 changes