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The Verdict2026 · AFC West · through Week 9

Raiders logoLas Vegas RaidersThe Verdict

Raiders are 4-5; the play says 3.6 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-2 in one-score games. On fourth down, Klint Kubiak kicked away 2 of 7 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 11th of 32+0.44-5 real · 3.6 deserved · 3.9 Pythagorean
Luck points · 5th of 32+11.1fumble bounces +10.2 · opponents' kicks +0.9
Chicken Index · 28th of 3229%Klint Kubiak · 3.3 expected points lost on 35 graded calls
Flags net · 26th of 32−36.8 WP54 flags for 413 yards against · 71 drawn

Every game, judged

Lucky 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: LV @ NYJ, where the Jets lost with a 71% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Raiders logoRaiders40% success · −0.14 EPA/play
1738
49ers logo49ers50% success · +0.19 EPA/play

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 15.9, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSF by 15.9
Real marginSF by 21
Luck pts LV−2.7
Luck pts SF+1.5

The swingQ1 13:26 · SF · +9 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LV 41 for 4 yards (31-T.Stukes).

Week 8LuckyGame file →
Raiders logoRaiders50% success · +0.21 EPA/play
3833
Jets logoJets51% success · +0.25 EPA/play

Jets played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Jets lost.

Deserved marginNYJ by 3.1
Real marginLV by 5
Luck pts LV−0.8
Luck pts NYJ−1.2

The swingQ4 6:11 · NYJ · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (31-T.Stukes).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-2Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+10.2 ptsKept 4 of 7 own fumbles; won 8 of 12 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+0.9 ptsOpponents made 13 of 15 field goals against an expected 13.5, and 31 of 32 extra points.
Own kicking+2.7 ptsMade 19 of 21 field goals against 18.1 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.10626th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them6-2Our pregame model in Raiders games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Klint Kubiak · 35 graded fourth downs · went for it 15×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 2.6 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Punt at own 26, Wk 2 Q4 6:54, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  2. 2LV · 4th & 15Klint Kubiak chose Punt at opp 40, Wk 5 Q2 5:20, down 7. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−0.86 EP
  3. 3LV · 4th & 3Klint Kubiak chose Punt at own 44, Wk 9 Q1 8:29, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.58 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Go for it at opp 46, Wk 8 Q2 3:58, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Go for it at own 39, Wk 4 Q2 9:21, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Go for it at own 35, Wk 2 Q3 7:41, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4LV · 4th & 1Klint Kubiak chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 2 Q1 0:40, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 3 · own 44 · Q1 8:299PuntGo for it0.09-0.49–−0.58punted
4th & 10 · opp 31 · Q2 1:169Field goalnot graded0.65-0.111.92good
4th & 11 · own 31 · Q4 3:579Go for itnot graded-1.83-1.01–stopped
4th & 11 · own 31 · Q2 15:008PuntPunt-1.83-1.01–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 46 · Q2 3:588Go for itGo for it1.64-0.24-0.34✓stopped
4th & 4 · own 35 · Q4 9:178PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.73-0.83–−0.10punted
4th & 5 · opp 35 · Q4 0:318Field goalnot graded0.95-0.111.46good
4th & 9 · own 39 · Q1 13:397PuntPunt-1.17-0.67–✓punted
4th & 13 · opp 33 · Q1 10:537Field goalField goal0.33-0.111.70✓missed
4th & 8 · opp 12 · Q1 0:557Field goalField goal2.33–2.86✓good
4th & 10 · own 35 · Q2 8:417PuntPunt-1.50-0.83–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 48 · Q2 2:007Go for itnot graded0.58-0.28–stopped
4th & 1 · opp 10 · Q2 0:027Field goalnot graded4.16–2.89good
4th & 5 · own 30 · Q3 12:077Go for itnot graded-1.25-1.06–converted
4th & 2 · opp 13 · Q3 8:437Go for itnot graded3.31–2.84stopped
4th & 5 · opp 25 · Q3 7:087Go for itnot graded1.61–2.40stopped
4th & 10 · own 35 · Q4 5:297Go for itnot graded-1.50-0.83–converted
4th & 10 · opp 18 · Q4 4:157Field goalnot graded1.52–2.72good
4th & 4 · own 37 · Q2 13:156PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.61-0.75–−0.14punted
4th & 5 · opp 17 · Q2 2:186Field goalField goal2.17–2.75✓good
4th & 10 · own 30 · Q3 14:386PuntPunt-1.82-1.06–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 4 · Q4 13:356Field goalField goal2.44–2.94✓good
4th & 10 · own 18 · Q4 4:216Puntnot graded-2.63-1.73–punted
4th & 6 · own 39 · Q1 14:025PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.84-0.67–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 32 · Q2 14:565PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.12-0.96–✓punted
4th & 15 · opp 40 · Q2 5:205PuntField goal-0.20-0.150.71−0.86punted
4th & 14 · opp 31 · Q2 1:565Field goalnot graded0.42-0.111.92missed
4th & 5 · own 37 · Q3 11:385Puntnot graded-0.80-0.75–punted
4th & 13 · opp 27 · Q3 8:345Field goalnot graded0.73–2.27good
4th & 3 · own 49 · Q3 2:045Go for itnot graded0.40-0.35–stopped
4th & 4 · opp 14 · Q4 2:425Go for itnot graded2.59–2.82stopped
4th & 14 · own 42 · Q1 0:084PuntPunt-1.29-0.56–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 39 · Q2 9:214Go for itGo for it0.72-0.67–✓converted
4th & 9 · opp 13 · Q2 3:234Field goalField goal2.16–2.84✓good
4th & 2 · opp 18 · Q3 11:374Go for itGo for it (toss-up)2.94–2.72✓stopped
4th & 11 · own 35 · Q3 4:494PuntPunt-1.57-0.83–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 31 · Q3 0:404PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.18-1.01–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 26 · Q4 11:174Field goalField goal0.91–2.34✓good
4th & 2 · opp 30 · Q4 4:584Field goalnot graded2.10-0.112.02good
4th & 10 · own 16 · Q4 0:374Go for itnot graded-2.77-1.87–converted
4th & 16 · opp 23 · Q1 7:393Field goalField goal0.86–2.52✓good
4th & 5 · opp 18 · Q2 11:303Field goalField goal2.09–2.72✓good
4th & 5 · own 42 · Q3 13:373PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.49-0.56–−0.07punted
4th & 10 · own 10 · Q3 1:473PuntPunt-3.20-2.29–✓punted
4th & 14 · own 40 · Q4 1:443Puntnot graded-1.42-0.63–punted
4th & 3 · own 28 · Q1 4:102PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.91-1.16–−0.25punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 0:402Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓stopped
4th & 13 · own 44 · Q2 2:012PuntPunt-1.12-0.49–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 41 · Q2 0:082Field goalnot graded0.09-0.160.55good
4th & 9 · own 18 · Q3 14:032PuntPunt-2.55-1.73–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 35 · Q3 7:412Go for itGo for it0.47-0.83–✓converted
4th & 8 · opp 46 · Q4 12:342PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.14-0.24-0.34−0.10punted
4th & 1 · own 26 · Q4 6:542PuntGo for it-0.08-1.27–−1.18punted
4th & 2 · opp 40 · Q4 2:002Puntnot graded1.45-0.150.71punted
4th & 1 · opp 34 · Q1 4:291Go for itGo for it2.42-0.111.58✓converted
4th & 2 · opp 29 · Q2 10:261Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.17–2.11−0.06good
4th & 12 · opp 12 · Q3 2:381Field goalnot graded1.06–2.86good
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q4 14:151Puntnot graded0.14-0.67–punted
4th & 12 · own 22 · Q4 6:101Puntnot graded-2.49-1.49–punted
4th & 15 · own 42 · Q4 3:401Puntnot graded-1.34-0.56–punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on LV in Week 4, worth +35 points of win probability to KC.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped KC · Wk 4 Q4 3:35 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the…+34.9 WP
  2. 2Defensive Too Many Men on FieldLV → helped LAC · Wk 2 Q4 3:52 · (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.+17.8 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped NYJ · Wk 8 Q4 0:20 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to 50 for 15 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Unnecessary…+10.9 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceLV → helped NE · Wk 5 Q1 4:00 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. PENALTY on LV-5-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 27 yards,…+6.5 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped LA · Wk 7 Q1 9:30 · 24-B.Corum up the middle to LV 42 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean; 5-E.Stokes). PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Unnecessary Roughness, 15…+6.4 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Unnecessary Roughness44852.4
Defensive Pass Interference1012428.0
False Start83819.1
Defensive Too Many Men on Field21118.9
Offensive Holding87818.4
Defensive Holding41715.2
Intentional Grounding1104.1
Defensive Offside2104.0

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped LV · Wk 7 Q1 11:44 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 39…+8.1 WP
  2. 2Illegal Use of HandsLAC → helped LV · Wk 2 Q4 13:36 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to LAC 49 for 4 yards (22-G.Smith). PENALTY on LAC-20-C.Hart, Illegal Use of…+7.6 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingBUF → helped LV · Wk 6 Q3 9:57 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence,… · Touchdown erased (5.1 expected pts)+6.1 WP
  4. 4TauntingMIA → helped LV · Wk 1 Q2 12:44 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 1-T.Tucker (23-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on MIA-8-J.Brents, Taunting, 15 yards,…+6.0 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceNYJ → helped LV · Wk 8 Q3 8:10 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Defensive Pass Interference, 11…+4.9 WP

Garbage Time Tax

24.5% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 8th most of 32

Bottom lineTre Tucker: 190 of 529 yards (36%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Kirk CousinsLV · passing · 2,340 yds27%
Brock BowersLV · receiving · 658 yds30%
Tre TuckerLV · receiving · 529 yds36%
Michael MayerLV · receiving · 388 yds14%
Ashton JeantyLV · receiving · 371 yds35%
Ashton JeantyLV · rushing · 362 yds16%
Mike Washington Jr.LV · rushing · 275 yds6%

Our picks on the Raiders

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Raiders 21% at 49ers. 17-38 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Raiders 41% at jets. 38-33 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Raiders 49% at home against rams. 35-21 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Raiders 48% at home against bills. 33-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Raiders 63% at patriots. 17-45 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Raiders 49% at home against chiefs. 30-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Raiders 57% at saints. 35-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Raiders 66% at chargers. 26-14 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Las Vegas Raiders verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/raiders/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.