AFC South · 2026 season

IndianapolisColts

2-7record3rdin South#13AFC seed-65point diffL5streak

DolphinsSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETIND -2.5 · O/U 40.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Biggest improvementRun defenseEPA per rush allowed31st→24th

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.03 EPA per rush (109 rushes), 24th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: +0.08 EPA per rush (117 rushes), 31st.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemRun gameEPA per rush2nd→23rd

Over the last 4 games the run game has posted -0.11 EPA per rush (101 rushes), 23rd among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: +0.10 EPA per rush (131 rushes), 2nd.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftTyler Warren, TEoffensive snap share91%→39%

Tyler Warren has played 39% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 91% in the 5 games before. On the field in 2 of 4 and 5 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-7 in the 2026 season, 3rd in the AFC South and the No. 13 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of -65. On offense they rank 29th in the league in EPA per play (-0.125); on defense they rank 27th (+0.075 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 0% chance to make the playoffs and 0.0% to win the Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts play next at home against the Miami Dolphins on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on CBS.

What is the Indianapolis Colts record?

2-7, 3rd in the AFC South. Home 1-3, road 1-4, division 1-2, conference 1-5, current streak L5. Points: 184 scored, 249 allowed.

Who do the Indianapolis Colts play next?

The Indianapolis Colts play next at home against the Miami Dolphins on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on CBS.

What are the Indianapolis Colts' playoff chances?

0% to make the playoffs, 0% to win the AFC South, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 0.0% to win the AFC and 0.0% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 4.7-12.3).

Who is the Indianapolis Colts starting quarterback?

Daniel Jones is first on the Colts depth chart at quarterback, with Anthony Richardson Sr. behind.

Who is injured for the Indianapolis Colts?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: A.J. Haulcy (S, out, ankle), Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB, out, knee), Justin Walley (CB, out, knee) and Alec Pierce (WR, injured reserve, heel). Questionable: Jalen Travis (OT, questionable, knee), Jaylon Carlies (LB, questionable, neck) and Mo Alie-Cox (TE, questionable, groin).

How good is the Indianapolis Colts offense and defense?

Offense: 29th in EPA per play (-0.125), 31st on dropbacks, 5th on runs, success rate 42.2%. Defense: 27th in EPA allowed (+0.075), 23rd against the pass, 32nd against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Indianapolis Colts 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/colts (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Colts Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeColts hold a late lead, then give up 509 yards in a 27-23 loss to CowboysIndianapolis went 3-for-13 on third down and lost the yardage fight by 238 yards, and a fourth-quarter fumble and a 46-yard completion decided it.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportColts' No. 4 rushing offense meets Dallas' No. 29 rush defense at Lucas OilNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Colts, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record2-7

Deserved2.8wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

−0.8 luck wins · 26th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 29th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Colts would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games1-4decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index47%15th most timid of 28

Flags, net−17win prob. points · 21st

Bounce & kick luck−10.4points · −1.2 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Cowboys earned it: the snaps said Cowboys by 13.8, a deserved win probability of 99%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost play action, most pass rate over expected in the leagueClosest twin: Jaguars (70%)Clock IQ30th of 32 at managing the clockShane Steichen · 6 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real132-7

Deserved–2.8-6.2

Out of the picture in both worldsSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−5.6The market overrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 5-4 against the spread Sliding Doors2losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped185 points of win probability lost to those plays, 74 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 13Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsColts2-7 · proj 4.7-12.3 · 13th in AFC<1%▼ 1 pts

Win it all 0%Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 24 hardest of 32 · avg opp -0.6 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Colts stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.12529th

Dropback EPA-0.21631st

Rush EPA+0.0095th

Success rate42.2%18th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.07527th

Pass EPA allowed+0.11223rd

Rush EPA allowed+0.02732nd

Success allowed43.4%14th

Pass rate over expected: -3.9% (23rd most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 573 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 19.7 (7th most) · RB 27.0 (4th most) · WR 30.1 (22nd most) · TE 14.7 (11th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 337 dropbacksD.Jones-0.204EPA / dropback-4.3CPOE7.5aDOT41%success

Quarterback · 4 dropbacksA.Richardson-1.230EPA / dropback+24.3CPOE3.0aDOT0%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
J.Taylor RB	160	652	8	-0.09	41%
S.McGowan RB	43	208	1	+0.07	42%
D.Jones QB	14	29	1	+0.61	79%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
K.Allen WR	58	20%	22%	8.0	351	1	+0.12
J.Downs WR	57	20%	26%	9.6	354	1	+0.27
T.Warren TE	53	18%	12%	4.6	275	2	-0.22
J.Taylor RB	36	13%	-2%	-1.4	220	0	-0.14
L.Treadwell WR	29	10%	17%	12.1	215	0	+0.03
W.Mallory TE	9	3%	5%	10.9	20	0	-1.28
D.Burks WR	9	3%	8%	17.3	60	0	+0.17
A.Dulin WR	9	3%	4%	9.9	84	1	-0.21

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

60CBortolini Van Pran-Granger

62LGFarmer Tucker

79LTRaimann

17QBJones Richardson Sr.

2WRDowns Dulin

DefenseBase 4-3 D

0FSBynum Owens

1LCBGardner Harris

91LDETuimoloau Gumbs Jr.

90LDTStewart Smith

53MLBAllen

27NBWalley Gushiken

7RCBWard Taylor-Britt

97RDELatu Curry

95RDTAdebawore Tillery

50SLBBoettcher Ajiake

25SSHaulcy Wohler

51WLBDavis-Gaither Carlies ·

HolderRigoberto Sanchez Kick ReturnerSeth McGowan Long SnapperLuke Rhodes PunterRigoberto Sanchez Place KickerSpencer Shrader Punt ReturnerAnthony Gould

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Matt GoncalvesG	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	87	100
Tanor BortoliniC	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	87	100
Daniel JonesQB	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	79	100
Bernhard RaimannT	100	100	100	89	100	100	100	87	100
Jalen FarmerG				5				100	100
Tyler WarrenTE	93	89	94	85	94			72	83
Laquon TreadwellWR	35	74	79	85	80	93	74	70	81
Josh DownsWR	89	83	68	77	85	86	85	75	77
Jonathan TaylorRB	89	94	85	71	73	78	67	62	69
Luke TenutaT	2	5	3	14	13			13	62
Keenan AllenWR	67	51	73		45	71	49	52	56
Jalen TravisT	100	100	100	100	94	100	100	100	41
Seth McGowanRB	11	6	15	29	27	23	33	25	31
Andrew OgletreeTE	11	29	30	29	27	36	57	26	28

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Camryn BynumS	100	100	100	100	98	100	100	94	100
Sauce GardnerCB	100	95	91	100	98	48		94	100
CJ AllenLB		8	9		40	28		83	100
Hunter WohlerS		52	31	11	5	13		15	97
Charvarius WardCB	96	45	96	100	100	100	100	94	90
Adetomiwa AdebaworeDT	26	30	28	45	40	35	49	83	82
Laiatu LatuDE	84	75	50	77	83	93	80	69	81
JT TuimoloauDE	34	36	48	53	82	93	80	72	81
Bryce BoettcherLB	34	28	30	28	18	39			73
Grover StewartDT	63	61	67	50	57	70	58	50	59
Kenneth HarrisCB	6						29	39	51
Caden CurryDE	4	9	17	23	15	7	20	39	37
Kapena GushikenCB		10					24	17	37
Jerry TilleryDT	53	41	48	33	37	7	29	44	28

With / Without

All Colts splits →

CornerbackSauce Gardner91% of snapsSmall sample

-0.17Observed difference
EPA allowed, better without

EPA allowed+0.093-0.081

Success allowed44.1%37.0%

Points allowed29.116.0

With 8 games · 469 playsWithout 1 game · 54 plays (Wk 7)

Opponents avg rating

With

BAL

HOU

WSH

PIT

TEN

JAX

DAL+1.4

Without

MIN+1.3

Opponents of similar strength in both groups

Other starters out

Without games:Tyler Warren TE · 1/1

With games:Akeem Davis-Gaither LB · 1/8, DeForest Buckner DT · 1/8, Keenan Allen WR · 1/8, Tyler Warren TE · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 3-6)-0.066From Wk 7 on (Wks 7-9)+0.090

Interior lineDeForest Buckner83% of snapsSmall sample

+0.15Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed+0.048+0.199

Success allowed42.8%45.3%

Points allowed25.742.0

With 7 games · 400 playsWithout 1 game · 53 plays (Wk 8)

Opponents avg rating

With

BAL

HOU

WSH

PIT

TEN

MIN+0.2

Without

JAX+10.7

Opponents in the games with him were 10.4 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

With games:Tyler Warren TE · 2/7, Keenan Allen WR · 1/7, Sauce Gardner CB · 1/7

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 4-7)-0.064From Wk 8 on (Wks 8-9)+0.165

LinebackerAkeem Davis-Gaither92% of snapsOutSmall sample

+0.07Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed+0.065+0.140

Success allowed43.0%45.7%

Points allowed27.827.0

With 8 games · 453 playsWithout 1 game · 70 plays (Wk 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

BAL

HOU

WSH

PIT

TEN

MIN

JAX+1.5

Without

DAL+0.6

Opponents in the games with him were 1.0 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Tyler Warren TE · 2/8, DeForest Buckner DT · 1/8, Keenan Allen WR · 1/8, Sauce Gardner CB · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 5-8)+0.061From Wk 9 on (Wk 9)+0.140

Wide receiverKeenan Allen58% of snapsSmall sample

-0.04Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play-0.130-0.086

Success42.2%42.2%

Points / game19.330.0

With 8 games · 509 playsWithout 1 game · 64 plays (Wk 4)

Opponents avg rating

With

BAL

HOU

PIT

TEN

MIN

JAX

DAL+1.9

Without

WSH-2.6

Opponents in the games with him were 4.5 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Tyler Warren TE · 2/8, Akeem Davis-Gaither LB · 1/8, DeForest Buckner DT · 1/8, Sauce Gardner CB · 1/8

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-3)-0.060From Wk 4 on (Wks 4-7)-0.074

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key Colts starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Cam BynumSafety · 9/9 games99%
Daniel JonesQuarterback · 9/9 games98%
Bernhard RaimannTackle · 9/9 games97%
Jalen TravisTackle · 9/9 games93%
Charvarius WardCornerback · 9/9 games91%
Josh DownsWide receiver · 9/9 games81%
Laiatu LatuEdge rusher · 9/9 games77%
Jonathan TaylorRunning back · 9/9 games76%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps · all 10 starters →

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

A.J. HaulcyS · #25 · AnkleOut
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB · #51 · KneeOut
Justin WalleyCB · #27 · KneeOut
Alec PierceWR · #14 · HeelIR

Questionable

Jalen TravisOT · #75 · KneeQuestionable
Jaylon CarliesLB · #57 · NeckQuestionable
Mo Alie-CoxTE · #81 · GroinQuestionable

AFC South

Full standings

JaguarsDiv 1-1 · Home 4-1 · Road 2-16-2+108 2

TexansDiv 2-1 · Home 0-4 · Road 3-13-5+17 3

ColtsDiv 1-2 · Home 1-3 · Road 1-42-7-65 4

TitansDiv 1-1 · Home 0-4 · Road 1-31-7-55