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Pro Football RumorsFalcons To Sign Jake Moody Off Ravens’ Practice Squad, Release Nick FolkPro Football RumorsBroncos TE Evan Engram Generating Trade Interest49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoArizona CardinalsYou've Got Mail: Banged Up But Battling ForwardInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful18 min agoPro Football RumorsPatriots WR A.J. Brown Could Miss Week 10 With Knee IssueBaltimore RavensJesse Minter Could Shake Up Ravens DefenseInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoESPNBengals trade for Eagles LB Arnold Ebiketie, sources saySaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score44 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out50 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score54 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending SurgeryInjuryMaliek Collins: Out → Questionable1 h ago
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The Verdict2026 · NFC West · through Week 9

Cardinals logoArizona CardinalsThe Verdict

Cardinals are 3-6; the play says 2.6 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Mike LaFleur kicked away 8 of 14 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 10th of 32+0.43-6 real · 2.6 deserved · 2.7 Pythagorean
Luck points · 19th of 32−3.4fumble bounces +0.8 · opponents' kicks −4.2
Chicken Index · 12th of 3257%Mike LaFleur · 7.9 expected points lost on 47 graded calls
Flags net · 24th of 32−30.3 WP68 flags for 629 yards against · 58 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Cardinals logoCardinals41% success · −0.29 EPA/play
317
Seahawks logoSeahawks43% success · +0.07 EPA/play

Seahawks earned it: the snaps said Seahawks by 15.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSEA by 15.7
Real marginSEA by 14
Luck pts ARI+3.2
Luck pts SEA−3.8

The swingQ1 3:58 · SEA · +10 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 8-J.Price pushed ob at ARI 41 for 15 yards (5-B.Browning).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+0.8 ptsKept 2 of 3 own fumbles; won 4 of 9 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−4.2 ptsOpponents made 14 of 15 field goals against an expected 12.4, and 25 of 27 extra points.
Own kicking+1.9 ptsMade 20 of 22 field goals against 19.4 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.12727th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-3Our pregame model in Cardinals games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Mike LaFleur · 47 graded fourth downs · went for it 15×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.6 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 40, Wk 1 Q4 14:04, up 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
  2. 2ARI · 4th & 2Mike LaFleur chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 2 Q1 13:30, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  3. 3ARI · 4th & 2Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 43, Wk 7 Q2 2:13, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.91 EP
  4. 4ARI · 4th & 3Mike LaFleur chose Field goal at opp 9, Wk 1 Q2 6:54, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.75 EP
  5. 5ARI · 4th & 15Mike LaFleur chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 3 Q1 9:27, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
  6. 6ARI · 4th & 4Mike LaFleur chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 2 Q2 12:17, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.65 EP
  7. 7ARI · 4th & 2Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 11, Wk 2 Q2 5:34, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.56 EP
  8. 8ARI · 4th & 3Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 38, Wk 8 Q1 13:57, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.42 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 44, Wk 8 Q2 14:26, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 9, Wk 5 Q1 5:56, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 8 Q1 6:17, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4ARI · 4th & 1Mike LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 16, Wk 3 Q2 5:07, down 14. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 6 · opp 10 · Q1 9:269Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.75–2.89✓good
4th & 13 · own 17 · Q1 4:469PuntPunt-2.90-1.80–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 21 · Q2 11:529PuntPunt-2.50-1.55–✓punted
4th & 14 · opp 43 · Q2 5:369PuntField goal-0.35-0.190.20−0.39punted
4th & 9 · own 29 · Q2 1:559Puntnot graded-1.81-1.11–punted
4th & 8 · own 34 · Q3 11:329PuntPunt-1.39-0.87–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 47 · Q3 0:149Puntnot graded-0.20-0.26-0.53punted
4th & 1 · opp 32 · Q4 7:479Go for itnot graded2.55-0.111.82converted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q4 4:399Go for itnot graded3.29–2.95stopped
4th & 3 · own 38 · Q1 13:578PuntGo for it-0.28-0.71–−0.42punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 6:178Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓stopped
4th & 1 · opp 44 · Q2 14:268Go for itGo for it1.77-0.200.02✓converted
4th & 15 · opp 47 · Q2 12:288PuntPunt-0.64-0.26-0.53✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 19 · Q2 1:178Field goalnot graded1.73–2.69good
4th & 31 · own 34 · Q3 3:098Puntnot graded-2.23-0.87–punted
4th & 9 · own 36 · OT 8:408Puntnot graded-1.36-0.79–punted
4th & 3 · opp 24 · OT 2:588Field goalnot graded2.14–2.46good
4th & 12 · own 29 · Q1 10:027PuntPunt-2.02-1.11–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 13 · Q1 5:387PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.90-2.07–−0.17punted
4th & 11 · opp 11 · Q2 14:197Field goalField goal1.17–2.87✓good
4th & 1 · opp 20 · Q2 8:407Go for itGo for it3.39–2.65✓converted
4th & 7 · opp 7 · Q2 4:347Field goalField goal1.76–2.92✓good
4th & 2 · own 43 · Q2 2:137PuntGo for it0.39-0.52–−0.91punted
4th & 10 · own 34 · Q2 0:307Puntnot graded-1.56-0.87–punted
4th & 10 · opp 45 · Q3 12:047PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.24-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 13 · opp 40 · Q4 12:577Go for itnot graded-0.11-0.150.71stopped
4th & 17 · opp 23 · Q4 6:257Field goalnot graded1.02–2.52good
4th & 1 · opp 41 · Q4 2:467Go for itnot graded1.96-0.160.55converted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q4 0:567Go for itnot graded2.17–2.93stopped
4th & 10 · opp 16 · Q1 5:416Field goalField goal1.91–2.78✓good
4th & 12 · opp 12 · Q2 14:556Field goalField goal1.06–2.86✓good
4th & 4 · own 41 · Q2 6:576PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.36-0.59–−0.24punted
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q2 0:496Field goalnot graded2.80–2.94good
4th & 6 · opp 19 · Q3 6:296Field goalField goal1.86–2.69✓good
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q4 9:316Field goalField goal1.44–2.90✓good
4th & 6 · own 29 · Q4 7:066PuntPunt-1.47-1.11–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 45 · Q4 2:586Puntnot graded-0.87-0.46–punted
4th & 6 · opp 25 · Q4 0:036Field goalnot graded1.45–2.40good
4th & 1 · opp 9 · Q1 5:565Go for itGo for it4.24–2.90✓converted
4th & 7 · own 21 · Q1 2:075PuntPunt-2.13-1.55–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 11 · Q2 14:305PuntPunt-3.27-2.21–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 29 · Q2 11:075PuntPunt-1.60-1.11–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 36 · Q2 8:365PuntGo for it-0.41-0.79–−0.38punted
4th & 9 · own 24 · Q2 3:155PuntPunt-2.14-1.38–✓punted
4th & 17 · opp 35 · Q3 12:245Field goalnot graded0.04-0.111.46missed
4th & 1 · opp 19 · Q4 13:035Go for itnot graded3.47–2.69stopped
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q4 2:175Go for itnot graded1.44–2.90touchdown
4th & 6 · own 31 · Q2 11:314PuntPunt-1.34-1.01–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 19 · Q2 8:354PuntPunt-2.38-1.67–✓punted
4th & 26 · own 15 · Q2 1:134Puntnot graded-3.47-1.93–punted
4th & 18 · own 38 · Q4 14:054PuntPunt-1.70-0.71–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 45 · Q4 9:344PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.59-0.46–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 6 · Q4 4:534Puntnot graded-3.20-2.60–punted
4th & 4 · opp 4 · Q4 0:114Go for itnot graded2.44–2.94touchdown
4th & 15 · opp 41 · Q1 9:273PuntField goal-0.27-0.160.55−0.71punted
4th & 7 · own 44 · Q1 5:183PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.65-0.49–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 30 · Q2 12:183Puntnot graded-1.74-1.06–punted
4th & 1 · opp 16 · Q2 5:073Go for itGo for it3.69–2.78✓converted
4th & 8 · opp 8 · Q2 3:083Field goalField goal1.59–2.91✓good
4th & 14 · opp 23 · Q2 0:273Field goalnot graded0.95–2.52good
4th & 2 · opp 26 · Q3 6:203Go for itnot graded2.38–2.34converted
4th & 10 · own 24 · Q3 0:413Puntnot graded-2.22-1.38–punted
4th & 2 · opp 49 · Q1 13:302PuntGo for it0.88-0.30–−1.18punted
4th & 12 · own 40 · Q1 7:522PuntPunt-1.31-0.63–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 15:002Go for itGo for it3.29–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 4 · opp 47 · Q2 12:172PuntGo for it0.39-0.26-0.53−0.65punted
4th & 2 · own 11 · Q2 5:342PuntGo for it-1.65-2.21–−0.56punted
4th & 4 · own 34 · Q2 0:352Puntnot graded-0.79-0.87–punted
4th & 5 · own 43 · Q3 3:202PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.43-0.52–−0.10punted
4th & 9 · own 36 · Q4 11:352Puntnot graded-1.36-0.79–punted
4th & 4 · opp 36 · Q2 14:551Field goalField goal (toss-up)1.08-0.121.32✓missed
4th & 3 · opp 9 · Q2 6:541Field goalGo for it3.64–2.90−0.75good
4th & 11 · opp 15 · Q3 7:291Field goalField goal1.84–2.80✓good
4th & 10 · opp 49 · Q3 2:441PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.49-0.30–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q4 14:041PuntGo for it0.78-0.63–−1.41punted
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q4 4:511Puntnot graded0.14-0.67–punted
4th & 2 · opp 30 · Q4 2:371Field goalnot graded2.10-0.112.02good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Holding on ARI in Week 4, worth +11 points of win probability to NYG.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive HoldingARI → helped NYG · Wk 4 Q3 2:34 · 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. PENALTY on ARI-55-D.Stills,…+11.1 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessARI → helped DET · Wk 5 Q2 13:37 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson,…+10.2 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceARI → helped LA · Wk 6 Q4 8:55 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (13-K.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Defensive…+10.2 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceARI → helped LAC · Wk 1 Q3 7:25 · 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 9-T.Harris. PENALTY on ARI-16-M.Melton, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards,…+8.6 WP
  5. 5Illegal Touch KickARI → helped DAL · Wk 8 Q4 2:11 · 38-C.Ryland kicks onside 9 yards from ARI 35 to ARI 44. 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at ARI 25 for 19 yards (50-J.Gibbens). PENALTY…+6.8 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference919640.3
Offensive Holding88029.1
Defensive Holding52527.0
False Start146823.9
Unnecessary Roughness56418.0
Face Mask45310.7
Illegal Use of Hands2108.8
Illegal Touch Kick156.8

Flags drawn

  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLA → helped ARI · Wk 6 Q4 0:47 · (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace,…+24.1 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceSF → helped ARI · Wk 3 Q4 13:38 · 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir,…+13.3 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped ARI · Wk 4 Q4 0:27 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass…+10.4 WP
  4. 4Offensive Pass InterferenceDEN → helped ARI · Wk 7 Q1 11:19 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to ARI 1 for 19 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). PENALTY on DEN-82-A.Trautman, Offensive…+7.8 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingSEA → helped ARI · Wk 9 Q2 11:52 · 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to SEA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 15-T.Horton to SEA 27 for 3 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). PENALTY…+6.7 WP

Garbage Time Tax

29.5% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 2nd most of 32

Bottom lineTyler Allgeier: 152 of 369 yards (41%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Jacoby BrissettARI · passing · 1,719 yds27%
Trey McBrideARI · receiving · 598 yds40%
Michael WilsonARI · receiving · 546 yds19%
Tyler AllgeierARI · rushing · 369 yds41%
Kendrick BourneARI · receiving · 269 yds18%
Jeremiyah LoveARI · rushing · 268 yds12%

Our picks on the Cardinals

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Cardinals 27% at seahawks. 3-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Cardinals 29% at cowboys. 33-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Cardinals 44% at home against broncos. 30-16 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Cardinals 23% at rams. 18-16 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Cardinals 48% at home against lions. 45-21 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Cardinals 47% at giants. 24-36 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Cardinals 19% at 49ers. 30-36 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Cardinals 62% at home against seahawks. 31-7 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Arizona Cardinals verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cardinals/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.