Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Raymond James StadiumFinal/OT

Final

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
PIT	0	3	0	16	7	26
TB	3	10	3	3	0	19

Home · 3-6Tampa BayBuccaneers19

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-19 on Sun, Oct 18 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Steelers 6-2, Buccaneers 3-6. D.Metcalf (PIT) led all players with +2.8 EPA on 15 targets.

Who won Steelers vs Buccaneers?

The Pittsburgh Steelers won 26-19. By quarter: PIT 0-3-0-16-7, TB 3-10-3-3-0.

Who was the best player in Steelers vs Buccaneers?

By expected points added: D.Metcalf (PIT, +2.8 EPA on 15 targets), T.Hurst (TB, +1.3 EPA on 6 targets) and G.Bernard (PIT, +1.0 EPA on 12 targets).

What was the turning point of Steelers vs Buccaneers?

The biggest swing in win probability (41 points toward the Steelers) came in Q4 at 1:46: (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by J.Dean at TB 43. J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (J.Daniels).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-pit-at-tb (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6EarnedGame file →

Steelers37% success · −0.20 EPA/play

2619

Buccaneers30% success · −0.30 EPA/play

PIT 82% deserveddeserved 18% TB

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 5.0, a deserved win probability of 82%.

Deserved marginPIT by 5.0

Real marginPIT by 7

Luck pts PIT−2.1

Luck pts TB−0.1

The swingQ4 1:46 · TB · −45 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceTB → helped PIT · Wk 6 Q4 3:38 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12…+15.4 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferencePIT → helped TB · Wk 6 Q2 15:00 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (23-D.Everette). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass…+5.8 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1PIT · 4th & 2Mike McCarthy chose Punt at own 32, Wk 6 Q2 13:15, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP
2PIT · 4th & 8Mike McCarthy chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 6 Q1 11:56, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA171 plays, one strand1 lead change · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewLand Clark9 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: PIT by 2.5 · Snaps: PIT by 5.0Steelers covered; the snaps agree

26@19

Week 6Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Buccaneers after the play19%what really happened

Q4 1:46 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

TB ▲PIT ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The five biggest swings

+41%Q4 1:46 · for PIT(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right intended for E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by J.Dean at TB 43. J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (J.Daniels).
+34%Q4 0:08 · for TBC.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
+23%Q4 2:47 · for TB(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at TB 40 for -9 yards (D.Walker).
+19%Q4 1:55 · for PITC.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
+16%OT 9:11 · for PIT(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to D.Metcalf to PIT 47 for 20 yards (I.Melifonwu; A.Anzalone) [D.Walker].The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass deep middle to D.Metcalf to PIT 43 for 16 yards (K.Scott) [D.Walker].

Every drive, on the field

TB attacks →← PIT attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · -14y · 2:12
Q1 12:48PUNT3p · 2y · 0:58
Q1 11:50PUNT3p · 5y · 0:59
Q1 10:51INT1p · 0y · 0:06
Q1 10:45FG6p · 14y · 2:54
Q1 7:51DOWNS7p · 40y · 4:10
Q1 3:41TD8p · 60y · 3:49
Q2 14:52PUNT3p · 8y · 1:50
Q2 13:02PUNT4p · 20y · 1:32
Q2 11:30MISS7p · 36y · 4:19
Q2 7:11FG7p · 33y · 3:03
Q2 4:08PUNT3p · -13y · 2:16
Q2 1:52PUNT3p · 1y · 0:24
Q2 1:28FG9p · 43y · 1:28
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 2y · 0:56
Q3 14:04FG17p · 70y · 9:02
Q3 5:02PUNT3p · 4y · 1:48
Q3 3:14PUNT3p · 5y · 1:00
Q3 2:14TD8p · 68y · 3:26
Q4 13:48INT3p · 3y · 0:39
Q4 13:09FG8p · 24y · 5:01
Q4 8:08PUNT3p · -1y · 1:05
Q4 7:03FG9p · 37y · 5:08
Q4 1:55INT2p · 0y · 0:17
Q4 1:38FG4p · 2y · 0:17
Q4 1:21FG5p · 30y · 1:13
Q4 0:08HALF1p · -1y · 0:08
Q5 10:00TD12p · 70y · 6:45
Q5 3:15DOWNS10p · 15y · 3:15

Steelers14 drives6scoring drives (2 TD)43%drives ending in pointsOWN 38avg starting field position5three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Buccaneers14 drives5scoring drives (1 TD)36%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position5three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:51Field goalC.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–3
Q2
14:52Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left to E.Egbuka for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–10
Q2
4:08Field goalC.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.0–13
Q2
0:00Field goalC.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.3–13
Q3
5:02Field goalC.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.3–16
Q4
13:48Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to D.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.10–16
Q4
8:08Field goal C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.13–16
Q4
1:55Field goalC.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.16–16
Q4
1:21Field goalC.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.19–16
Q4
0:08Field goalC.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.19–19
OT
3:15Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to G.Bernard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.26–19

Team stats

PITvsTB

300Total yards224

211Passing yards122

89Rushing yards102

3.9Yards per play3.1

22First downs17

5-15 · 33%Third down6-19 · 32%

0-1Fourth down1-2

2-4Red zone TDs1-2

33/49Comp / att22/43

4.0Yards per carry4.1

1Turnovers2

5 (−42 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−42 yds)

5 for 62Penalties4 for 38

38:36Possession31:24

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.201-0.304

Dropback EPA-0.264-0.330

Rush EPA-0.044-0.238

Success rate37%30%

Explosive plays36

Plays7373

Who moved the needle

D.MetcalfTargets: 15+2.8

T.HurstTargets: 6+1.3

G.BernardTargets: 12+1.0

R.DowdleCarries: 7+0.5

J.WarrenTargets: 4+0.4

C.GodwinTargets: 8-0.1

Cost their side the most

J.DanielsDropbacks: 52-17.2

A.RodgersDropbacks: 52-13.7

E.EgbukaTargets: 16-11.5

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Aaron RodgersQB	33/49	253	5.2	2	1	5-42	65.5	84.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jaylen WarrenRB	14	50	3.6	16
Rico DowdleRB	7	40	5.7	15
Aaron RodgersQB	1	-1	-1.0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DK MetcalfWR	11	15	93	8.5	0	17
Germie BernardWR	11	12	87	7.9	1	19
Jaylen WarrenRB	2	4	28	14.0	0	16
Darnell WashingtonTE	4	6	25	6.3	1	9
Pat FreiermuthTE	2	3	11	5.5	0	7
Rico DowdleRB	3	4	9	3.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Payton WilsonLB	11	7	0	0	0	0
Jalen RamseyCB	10	9	2	4	0	2
Jaquan BriskerS	7	4	0	0	0	1
Nick HerbigLB	6	6	2	3	0	2
Asante Samuel Jr.CB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Jamel DeanCB	4	2	0	0	6	0
Keeanu BentonDT	3	2	0	2	1	0
Daylen EveretteCB	3	2	0	0	1	0
Cameron HeywardDT	3	1	0	0	0	2
Patrick QueenLB	3	1	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chris BoswellPK	4/5	80.0	58	2/2	14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jalon DanielsQB	22/43	164	3.8	1	2	5-42	32.7	49.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	19	46	2.4	13
Jalon DanielsQB	4	39	9.8	17
Kenny GainwellRB	2	17	8.5	14

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Emeka EgbukaWR	7	16	48	6.9	1	16
Ted Hurst IIIWR	3	6	40	13.3	0	22
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	4	8	37	9.3	0	13
Bauer SharpTE	1	1	21	21.0	0	21
Kenny GainwellRB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Tez JohnsonWR	2	3	7	3.5	0	6
Cade OttonTE	1	2	4	4.0	0	4
Bucky IrvingRB	2	3	3	1.5	0	2
Jalon DanielsQB	1	1	-3	-3.0	0	-3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Josiah TrotterLB	12	5	0	0	1	0
Zyon McCollumCB	11	7	0	0	1	0
Tykee SmithS	10	3	0	0	0	1
Keionte ScottCB	8	4	1	1	0	1
David WalkerLB	7	3	2	2	0	3
Jacob ParrishCB	6	5	0	1	2	0
Yaya DiabyLB	4	3	0	1	0	2
Rueben Bain Jr.LB	4	1	1	1	1	1
Christian RozeboomLB	4	1	0	0	1	0
Ifeatu MelifonwuS	4	0	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	4/4	100.0	53	1/1	13

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Buccaneers third-down defense vs Steelers third-down offense
The Buccaneers' third-down defense ranks 6th in third-down conversion rate (33.9% allowed, 62 third downs faced) and faces a Steelers third-down offense ranked 27th (35.0%, 60 third downs).
27thPIT offense21 spots apart6thTB defense
2Steelers pass rush vs Buccaneers pass protection
The Steelers' pass rush ranks 14th in sack rate (6.3% of dropbacks, 175 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers pass protection ranked 29th (9.0% sacked, 189 dropbacks).
29thTB offense15 spots apart14thPIT defense
3Steelers red-zone defense vs Buccaneers red-zone offense
The Steelers' red-zone defense ranks 5th in red-zone touchdown rate (50% allowed, 8 trips faced) and faces a Buccaneers red-zone offense ranked 23rd (50%, 16 trips).
23rdTB offense18 spots apart5thPIT defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Steelers have the ballEdge TB · +10 ranks

PIT dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

26th-0.10204 dropbacks

TB +10

+0.02 allowed179 dropbacks faced16th

PIT run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

3rd+0.0798 rushes

-0.19 allowed99 rushes faced4th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Buccaneers have the ballEdge PIT · +11 ranks

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackPIT pass defense

29th-0.14189 dropbacks

PIT +11

+0.04 allowed175 dropbacks faced18th

TB run gameEPA per rushPIT run defense

9th+0.00112 rushes

TB +9

-0.06 allowed118 rushes faced18th

Third downEdge TB · +21 ranks

PIT third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

27th35.0%60 third downs

TB +21

33.9% allowed62 third downs faced6th

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion ratePIT third-down defense

18th39.7%68 third downs

PIT +11

34.4% allowed61 third downs faced7th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge PIT · +18 ranks

PIT red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

23rd50%12 trips

TB +12

54% allowed13 trips faced11th

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown ratePIT red-zone defense

23rd50%16 trips

PIT +18

50% allowed8 trips faced5th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge TB · +11 ranks

PIT big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

18th9.3%302 plays

TB +11

8.3% allowed278 plays faced7th

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play ratePIT defense against big plays

24th8.0%301 plays

10.9% allowed293 plays faced26th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge PIT · +15 ranks

PIT pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

21st6.9% sacked204 dropbacks

3.4% of dropbacks179 dropbacks faced28th

TB pass protectionsack ratePIT pass rush

29th9.0% sacked189 dropbacks

PIT +15

6.3% of dropbacks175 dropbacks faced14th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge PIT · +15 ranks

PIT ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

18th1.2 giveaways a game5 games

1.2 takeaways a game5 games14th

TB ball securityturnovers per gamePIT takeaway defense

25th1.8 giveaways a game5 games

PIT +15

1.4 takeaways a game5 games10th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: PIT 5 games, 302 offensive and 293 defensive plays · TB 5 games, 301 offensive and 278 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Riley NowakowskiFB→ Rico Dowdle

Ben SkowronekWR→ Brandon Smith

Yahya BlackLDE→ Nick Herbig

Baker MayfieldQB→ Jalon Daniels

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

Antoine Winfield Jr.FS→ Ifeatu Melifonwu

AwaySteelers1 next man up · 1 questionable · 3 changes