Jets 19, Patriots 26: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Gillette StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NYJ	3	0	10	6	19
NE	7	10	0	9	26

Home · 5-4New EnglandPatriots26

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:52 PM ET

The New England Patriots beat the New York Jets 26-19 on Sun, Oct 18 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Jets 2-7, Patriots 5-4. D.Maye (NE) led all players with +7.8 EPA on 35 dropbacks.

Who won Jets vs Patriots?

The New England Patriots won 26-19. By quarter: NYJ 3-0-10-6, NE 7-10-0-9.

Who was the best player in Jets vs Patriots?

By expected points added: D.Maye (NE, +7.8 EPA on 35 dropbacks), O.Cooper (NYJ, +5.9 EPA on 7 targets) and G.Smith (NYJ, +5.9 EPA on 33 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Jets vs Patriots?

The biggest swing in win probability (9 points toward the Patriots) came in Q1 at 4:10: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-R.Doubs was injured during the play. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Jets 19, Patriots 26: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-nyj-at-ne (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6EarnedGame file →

Jets49% success · −0.04 EPA/play

1926

Patriots43% success · +0.00 EPA/play

NYJ 32% deserveddeserved 68% NE

Patriots earned it: the snaps said Patriots by 2.6, a deserved win probability of 68%.

Deserved marginNE by 2.6

Real marginNE by 7

Luck pts NYJ+2.9

Luck pts NE−3.4

The swingQ3 8:17 · NE · −10 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (31-D.Bailey; 91-J.Briggs). FUMBLES (31-D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood at NE 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact…

Flags that moved this game

1False StartNYJ → helped NE · Wk 6 Q1 0:33 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-74-O.Fashanu, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 37 - No Play.+4.2 WP
2Offensive Pass InterferenceNYJ → helped NE · Wk 6 Q1 8:34 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-O.Cooper for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-17-T.Patrick,… · Touchdown erased (4.0 expected pts)+3.0 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NE · 4th & 3Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 34, Wk 6 Q1 6:48, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.34 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA141 plays, one strand1 lead change · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClete Blakeman10 accepted flags in this game · 15.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: NE by 7.5 · Snaps: NE by 2.6Jets covered; the snaps agree

19@26

Week 6

If the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-1

Jets after the play22%what really happened

Q2 5:15 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NE ▲NYJ ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+9%Q1 4:10 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-R.Doubs was injured during the play. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
+6%Q3 8:17 · for NYJ(Shotgun) T.Henderson right guard to NE 35 for 6 yards (D.Bailey; J.Briggs). FUMBLES (D.Bailey), RECOVERED by NYJ-J.Sherwood at NE 36.The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
+6%Q3 10:24 · for NYJG.Smith pass deep left to O.Cooper for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.
+5%Q4 6:30 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry to NYJ 48 for 15 yards (A.Thomas; J.Sherwood).
+5%Q2 7:36 · for NE(Shotgun) I.Davis up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (C.Elliss).

Every drive, on the field

NE attacks →← NYJ attacks

Q1 15:00FG13p · 48y · 6:43
Q1 8:17PUNT3p · 7y · 1:37
Q1 6:40PUNT3p · -16y · 2:18
Q1 4:22TD2p · 42y · 0:12
Q1 4:10DOWNS8p · 46y · 4:54
Q2 14:16PUNT6p · 14y · 2:41
Q2 11:35DOWNS8p · 58y · 4:38
Q2 6:57FG12p · 47y · 5:11
Q2 1:46PUNT3p · 6y · 0:23
Q2 1:23TD7p · 71y · 1:09
Q2 0:14HALF1p · -1y · 0:14
Q3 15:00DOWNS7p · 23y · 3:12
Q3 11:48TD3p · 60y · 1:24
Q3 10:24FUM4p · 18y · 2:14
Q3 8:10FG6p · 18y · 3:24
Q3 4:46TD12p · 68y · 5:36
Q4 14:10INT4p · 32y · 1:47
Q4 12:23FUM3p · 43y · 1:25
Q4 10:58FG9p · 33y · 3:38
Q4 7:20FG13p · 51y · 6:08
Q4 1:12FG6p · 57y · 0:40
Q4 0:32END1p · -1y · 0:32

Jets10 drives5scoring drives (1 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position2three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Patriots10 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position1three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:17Field goalJ.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.3–0
Q1
4:10Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-R.Doubs was injured during the play. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.3–7
Q2
1:46Field goal A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.3–10
Q2
0:14Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to D.Douglas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.3–17
Q3
10:24TouchdownG.Smith pass deep left to O.Cooper for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.10–17
Q3
4:46Field goalJ.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.13–17
Q4
14:10Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.13–23
Q4
7:20Field goal J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.16–23
Q4
1:12Field goalA.Borregales 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.16–26
Q4
0:32Field goalJ.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.19–26

Team stats

NYJvsNE

324Total yards383

227Passing yards235

97Rushing yards148

5.4Yards per play5.6

21First downs22

3-10 · 30%Third down8-15 · 53%

0-2Fourth down1-2

0-3Red zone TDs2-4

20/30Comp / att18/32

3.6Yards per carry4.1

1Turnovers2

3 (−25 yds)Sacks allowed0

5 for 35Penalties5 for 57

30:03Possession29:57

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.037+0.012

Dropback EPA+0.178+0.224

Rush EPA-0.310-0.219

Success rate49%43%

Explosive plays55

Plays5967

Who moved the needle

D.MayeDropbacks: 35+7.8

O.CooperTargets: 7+5.9

G.SmithDropbacks: 33+5.9

H.HenryTargets: 5+5.5

G.WilsonTargets: 6+3.9

D.DouglasTargets: 8+3.5

Cost their side the most

A.BrownTargets: 10-7.4

T.HendersonCarries: 7-6.7

K.SadiqTargets: 3-3.2

Box score

New York Jets

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Geno SmithQB	20/30	252	8.4	1	1	3-25	49.0	89.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Braelon AllenRB	17	78	4.6	16
Isaiah DavisRB	7	16	2.3	9
Isaiah WilliamsWR	1	4	4.0	4
Geno SmithQB	2	-1	-0.5	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Omar Cooper Jr.WR	6	7	103	17.2	1	48
Garrett WilsonWR	4	6	44	11.0	0	15
Mason TaylorTE	4	6	33	8.3	0	9
Braelon AllenRB	2	2	26	13.0	0	16
Tim PatrickWR	1	3	15	15.0	0	15
Kenyon SadiqTE	1	3	12	12.0	0	12
Isaiah DavisRB	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Jelani WoodsTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jamien SherwoodLB	11	6	1	0	1
Dane BeltonS	9	4	0	1	0
Demario DavisLB	7	6	0	1	0
Jowon BriggsDT	6	4	0	0	0
Azareye'h ThomasCB	6	3	0	0	0
David BaileyLB	6	1	0	0	1
Kingsley EnagbareLB	5	4	1	0	0
Minkah FitzpatrickS	5	1	0	0	0
Andre CiscoS	3	2	0	0	0
T'Vondre SweatDT	3	2	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason SandersPK	4/4	100.0	42	1/1	13

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	18/32	235	7.3	3	0	0-0	83.5	110.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Corey KinerRB	11	57	5.2	12
Rhamondre StevensonRB	14	36	2.6	12
TreVeyon HendersonRB	7	31	4.4	8
Drake MayeQB	4	24	6.0	21

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DeMario DouglasWR	7	8	86	12.3	1	39
Hunter HenryTE	4	5	48	12.0	1	16
Romeo DoubsWR	1	1	42	42.0	1	42
A.J. BrownWR	3	10	27	9.0	0	15
Kyle WilliamsWR	1	1	12	12.0	0	12
Eli RaridonTE	1	3	11	11.0	0	11
TreVeyon HendersonRB	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Efton Chism IIIWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Marcus JonesCB	8	4	0	0	1	0
Kevin ByardS	7	4	0	0	1	0
Christian GonzalezCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Christian EllissLB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Robert SpillaneLB	5	1	0	1	0	1
Craig WoodsonS	5	1	0	0	0	0
Cory DurdenDT	4	1	0	0	0	1
Gabe JacasLB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Milton WilliamsDT	3	2	1	1	0	1
Dre'Mont JonesDE	3	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	2/2	100.0	32	2/3	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jets run defense vs Patriots run game
The Jets' run defense ranks 7th in EPA per rush (-0.16 allowed, 125 rushes faced) and faces a Patriots run game ranked 23rd (-0.14, 126 rushes).
23rdNE offense16 spots apart7thNYJ defense
2Jets pass rush vs Patriots pass protection
The Jets' pass rush ranks 2nd in sack rate (9.1% of dropbacks, 187 dropbacks faced) and faces a Patriots pass protection ranked 17th (5.9% sacked, 187 dropbacks).
17thNE offense15 spots apart2ndNYJ defense
3Patriots pass defense vs Jets dropback offense
The Patriots' pass defense ranks 7th in EPA per dropback (-0.02 allowed, 180 dropbacks faced) and faces a Jets dropback offense ranked 20th (+0.04, 173 dropbacks).
20thNYJ offense13 spots apart7thNE defense

When the Jets have the ballEdge NE · +13 ranks

NYJ dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

20th+0.04173 dropbacks

NE +13

-0.02 allowed180 dropbacks faced7th

NYJ run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

20th-0.12117 rushes

NYJ +10

+0.02 allowed105 rushes faced30th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Patriots have the ballEdge NYJ · +16 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNYJ pass defense

9th+0.17187 dropbacks

+0.00 allowed187 dropbacks faced13th

NE run gameEPA per rushNYJ run defense

23rd-0.14126 rushes

NYJ +16

-0.16 allowed125 rushes faced7th

Third downEdge NE · +10 ranks

NYJ third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

21st37.9%66 third downs

NE +10

38.3% allowed60 third downs faced11th

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNYJ third-down defense

13th41.9%62 third downs

34.4% allowed61 third downs faced7th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NE · +14 ranks

NYJ red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

30th45%11 trips

NE +14

60% allowed15 trips faced16th

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNYJ red-zone defense

23rd50%16 trips

NYJ +13

53% allowed17 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NE · +10 ranks

NYJ big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

16th9.3%290 plays

NE +8

8.4% allowed285 plays faced8th

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNYJ defense against big plays

6th11.5%313 plays

NE +10

9.0% allowed312 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge NYJ · +15 ranks

NYJ pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

30th9.2% sacked173 dropbacks

NE +14

6.1% of dropbacks180 dropbacks faced16th

NE pass protectionsack rateNYJ pass rush

17th5.9% sacked187 dropbacks

NYJ +15

9.1% of dropbacks187 dropbacks faced2nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge NYJ · +11 ranks

NYJ ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

5th0.6 giveaways a game5 games

NYJ +9

1.2 takeaways a game5 games14th

NE ball securityturnovers per gameNYJ takeaway defense

31st2.2 giveaways a game5 games

NYJ +11

1.0 takeaways a game5 games20th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NYJ 5 games, 290 offensive and 312 defensive plays · NE 5 games, 313 offensive and 285 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Breece HallRB→ Braelon Allen

Adonai MitchellWR→ Tim Patrick

Dylan ParhamLG→ Jordan Meredith

Trevin WallaceSLB→ T'Vondre Sweat

Corey KinerFB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

Mack HollinsWR→ Efton Chism III

Walter RouseLG→ Caleb Lomu

Morgan MosesRT→ Ben Brown

Christian BarmoreLDE→ Gabe Jacas

Carlton Davis IIILCB→ Charles Woods

AwayJets2 questionable · 4 changes