Ravens 41, Colts 23: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · Lucas Oil StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
BAL	14	17	0	10	41
IND	6	7	3	7	23

Home · 2-7IndianapolisColts23

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Indianapolis Colts 41-23 on Sun, Sep 13 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: Ravens 4-5, Colts 2-7. L.Jackson (BAL) led all players with +13.3 EPA on 29 dropbacks.

Who won Ravens vs Colts?

The Baltimore Ravens won 41-23. By quarter: BAL 14-17-0-10, IND 6-7-3-7.

Who was the best player in Ravens vs Colts?

By expected points added: L.Jackson (BAL, +13.3 EPA on 29 dropbacks), Z.Flowers (BAL, +13.1 EPA on 6 targets) and D.Henry (BAL, +6.8 EPA on 24 carries).

What was the turning point of Ravens vs Colts?

The biggest swing in win probability (10 points toward the Ravens) came in Q2 at 6:54: (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Ravens 41, Colts 23: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-13-bal-at-ind (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1EarnedGame file →

Ravens50% success · +0.38 EPA/play

4123

Colts42% success · −0.20 EPA/play

BAL 100% deserveddeserved 0% IND

Ravens earned it: the snaps said Ravens by 25.1, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBAL by 25.1

Real marginBAL by 18

Luck pts BAL−0.4

Luck pts IND−1.9

The swingQ1 7:38 · IND · −16 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 13-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at IND 32. 0-R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (2-J.Downs).

Flags that moved this game

1Chop BlockBAL → helped IND · Wk 1 Q1 6:20 · 22-D.Henry right end to IND 19 for 3 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on BAL-79-R.Stanley, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at…+4.7 WP
2Offensive HoldingBAL → helped IND · Wk 1 Q2 8:30 · (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 44 for 8 yards (0-C.Bynum). PENALTY on BAL-71-O.Ioane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+3.3 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA133 plays, one strand1 lead change · 13 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewScott Novak14 accepted flags in this game · 18.2 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: BAL by 3 · Snaps: BAL by 25.1Ravens covered; the snaps agree

41@23

Week 1

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Colts after the play35%what really happened

Q1 7:38 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 13-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at IND 32. 0-R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (2-J.Downs).

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

IND ▲BAL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+10%Q2 6:54 · for BAL(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
+9%Q1 10:27 · for BALL.Jackson pass deep left to Z.Flowers to IND 2 for 49 yards (J.Walley).
+8%Q1 6:20 · for INDD.Henry right end to IND 19 for 3 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).PENALTY on BLT-R.Stanley, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at IND 22 - No Play.
+7%Q1 7:38 · for BAL(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short middle intended for L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by R.Smith at IND 32. R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (J.Downs).
+7%Q1 5:54 · for BAL(Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at IND 21 for 16 yards (K.Harris).Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld.

Every drive, on the field

IND attacks →← BAL attacks

Q1 15:00TD9p · 65y · 4:27
Q1 10:33TD3p · 51y · 2:13
Q1 8:20INT2p · -2y · 0:48
Q1 7:32TD6p · 31y · 3:27
Q1 4:05PUNT3p · 1y · 1:46
Q1 2:19DOWNS10p · 59y · 5:17
Q2 12:02PUNT5p · 11y · 2:51
Q2 9:11TD5p · 66y · 2:17
Q2 6:54FUM1p · 13y · 0:16
Q2 6:38TD3p · 47y · 1:34
Q2 5:04PUNT3p · 0y · 0:30
Q2 4:34FUM1p · -15y · 0:07
Q2 4:27TD4p · 15y · 2:11
Q2 2:16PUNT3p · -5y · 0:44
Q2 1:32PUNT3p · 9y · 0:40
Q2 0:52FG6p · 37y · 0:52
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 5y · 2:10
Q3 12:50FG9p · 45y · 4:55
Q3 7:55PUNT5p · 32y · 3:31
Q3 4:24PUNT5p · 36y · 3:09
Q3 1:15TD6p · 77y · 3:29
Q4 12:46TD6p · 74y · 2:20
Q4 10:26FG10p · 43y · 6:17
Q4 4:09DOWNS4p · -10y · 0:47
Q4 3:22END5p · 13y · 3:22

Ravens12 drives7scoring drives (5 TD)58%drives ending in pointsOWN 36avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Colts12 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position3three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:33TouchdownJ.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.0–6
Q1
8:20Touchdown(Shotgun) L.Jackson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.7–6
Q1
4:05TouchdownD.Henry right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.14–6
Q2
6:54Touchdown(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.21–6
Q2
5:04TouchdownD.Henry left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.28–6
Q2
2:16TouchdownJ.Taylor right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.28–13
Q2
0:00Field goal T.Loop 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.31–13
Q3
7:55Field goalS.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.31–16
Q4
12:46Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Henry left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.38–16
Q4
10:26Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short middle to T.Warren for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.38–23
Q4
4:09Field goalT.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.41–23

Team stats

BALvsIND

506Total yards251

304Passing yards149

202Rushing yards102

7.9Yards per play4.7

23First downs17

3-9 · 33%Third down3-10 · 30%

0-1Fourth down0-1

3-4Red zone TDs3-3

17/25Comp / att19/31

5.5Yards per carry5.1

1Turnovers2

2 (−20 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−17 yds)

10 for 86Penalties4 for 29

35:20Possession24:40

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.321-0.241

Dropback EPA+0.459-0.441

Rush EPA+0.192+0.116

Success rate50%42%

Explosive plays97

Plays6053

Who moved the needle

L.JacksonDropbacks: 29+13.3

Z.FlowersTargets: 6+13.1

D.HenryCarries: 24+6.8

J.DownsTargets: 4+3.4

J.TaylorCarries: 19+2.2

M.AndrewsTargets: 6+2.1

Cost their side the most

D.JonesDropbacks: 34-15.0

J.TaylorTargets: 4-5.0

J.LaneTargets: 3-4.0

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Lamar JacksonQB	17/25	324	13.0	1	0	2-20	80.3	124.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Derrick HenryRB	24	144	6.0	3	32
Lamar JacksonQB	7	40	5.7	1	19
Justice HillRB	6	18	3.0	0	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Zay FlowersWR	5	6	150	30.0	1	54
Chris MooreWR	1	2	53	53.0	0	53
Mark AndrewsTE	4	6	49	12.3	0	17
Derrick HenryRB	1	1	19	19.0	0	19
LaJohntay WesterWR	2	2	15	7.5	0	9
Matt HibnerTE	1	1	13	13.0	0	13
Ja'Kobi LaneWR	1	3	11	11.0	0	11
Justice HillRB	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Durham SmytheTE	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Rashod BatemanWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Roquan SmithLB	11	5	0	0	2	1
Malaki StarksS	7	2	1	1	0	2
Kyle HamiltonS	5	3	0	0	0	1
Marlon HumphreyCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Travis JonesDT	4	3	0	2	0	0
Trenton SimpsonLB	4	3	0	2	0	0
Nate WigginsCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Tavius RobinsonLB	3	1	1	1	0	4
Carl JonesLB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Keyon MartinCB	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler LoopPK	2/2	100.0	57	5/5	11

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	19/31	166	5.4	1	1	2-17	28.3	72.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	19	98	5.2	2	21
Daniel JonesQB	1	4	4.0	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Alec PierceWR	4	6	61	15.3	0	23
Josh DownsWR	2	4	37	18.5	0	25
Keenan AllenWR	6	6	32	5.3	0	9
Jonathan TaylorRB	3	4	23	7.7	0	13
Tyler WarrenTE	3	5	13	4.3	1	9
Laquon TreadwellWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ashton DulinWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Seth McGowanRB	1	1	0	0.0	0	0
Drew OgletreeTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	QB HTS
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	8	5	0	0
Cam BynumS	7	7	0	0
A.J. HaulcyS	7	4	0	0
Bryce BoettcherLB	7	2	0	0
Justin WalleyCB	6	5	0	0
Laiatu LatuDE	6	4	0.5	0
Arden KeyDE	5	3	0.5	1
Adetomiwa AdebaworeDT	4	1	0	0
Jerry TilleryDT	3	1	0	0
Charvarius WardCB	2	2	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	1/1	100.0	58	2/3	5

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jacoby BrissettQB→ Lamar Jackson

Zay FlowersWR→ Chris Moore

Cam JurgensC→ Jovaughn Gwyn

Nnamdi MadubuikeLDE→ Broderick Washington Jr.

Mike GreenWLB→ Tavius Robinson

Laquon TreadwellWR→ Josh Downs

Deion BurksWR→ Keenan Allen

Ashton DulinWR→ Alec Pierce

Jalen FarmerLG→ Quenton Nelson

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

Jaylahn TuimoloauLDE→ Arden Key