Cardinals 30, 49ers 36: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Levi's StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
ARI	0	6	7	17	30
SF	7	10	6	13	36

Home · 7-1San Francisco49ers36

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:36 PM ET

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Arizona Cardinals 36-30 on Sun, Sep 27 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Cardinals 3-6, 49ers 7-1. B.Purdy (SF) led all players with +25.2 EPA on 28 dropbacks.

Who won Cardinals vs 49ers?

The San Francisco 49ers won 36-30. By quarter: ARI 0-6-7-17, SF 7-10-6-13.

Who was the best player in Cardinals vs 49ers?

By expected points added: B.Purdy (SF, +25.2 EPA on 28 dropbacks), J.Brissett (ARI, +11.2 EPA on 53 dropbacks) and G.Kittle (SF, +10.2 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of Cardinals vs 49ers?

The biggest swing in win probability (14 points toward the 49ers) came in Q4 at 1:52: (Shotgun) B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on SF-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARZ 10.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Cardinals 30, 49ers 36: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-ari-at-sf (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Cardinals54% success · +0.17 EPA/play

3036

49ers57% success · +0.49 EPA/play

ARI 5% deserveddeserved 95% SF

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 8.9, a deserved win probability of 95%.

Deserved marginSF by 8.9

Real marginSF by 6

Luck pts ARI+0.6

Luck pts SF−1.2

The swingQ1 8:40 · SF · +20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceSF → helped ARI · Wk 3 Q4 13:38 · 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.McBride. SF-57-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir,…+13.3 WP
2Offensive HoldingARI → helped SF · Wk 3 Q1 10:22 · 4-J.Love left tackle to SF 33 for 3 yards (0-R.Green). PENALTY on ARI-84-E.Higgins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF…+6.4 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1ARI · 4th & 15Mike LaFleur chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 3 Q1 9:27, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA153 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Allen17 accepted flags in this game · 15 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: SF by 7.5 · Snaps: SF by 8.9Cardinals covered; the snaps say 49ers should have

30@36

Week 3

If the 57-yard kick had missed

Cardinals after the play12%what really happened

Q2 0:04 18-E.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. PENALTY on ARI-56-D.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SF ▲ARI ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+14%Q4 1:52 · for SF(Shotgun) B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on SF-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARZ 10.
+9%Q4 2:03 · for SF(Shotgun) C.McCaffrey up the middle to ARZ 42 for 12 yards (W.Williams).
+8%Q4 1:56 · for ARIC.McCaffrey left end to ARZ 45 for -3 yards (J.Gibbens).
+6%Q1 8:26 · for SF(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
+6%Q4 13:38 · for ARIJ.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to T.McBride. SF-D.Greenlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on SF-D.Lenoir, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at SF 20 - No Play.Penalty on SF-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined.

Every drive, on the field

SF attacks →← ARI attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT12p · 32y · 5:42
Q1 9:18TD3p · 80y · 0:52
Q1 8:26PUNT6p · 13y · 3:15
Q1 5:11TD10p · 93y · 5:16
Q2 14:55PUNT3p · 1y · 2:48
Q2 12:07PUNT3p · 5y · 0:55
Q2 11:12FG14p · 54y · 8:09
Q2 3:03PUNT6p · 15y · 1:33
Q2 1:30FG8p · 59y · 1:07
Q2 0:23FG3p · 34y · 0:23
Q3 15:00TD7p · 56y · 3:53
Q3 11:07TD14p · 69y · 8:05
Q3 3:02PUNT3p · 6y · 2:06
Q3 0:56PUNT3p · 0y · 0:25
Q3 0:31TD5p · 28y · 2:25
Q4 13:06TD8p · 65y · 4:24
Q4 8:42TD14p · 68y · 5:51
Q4 2:51TD7p · 65y · 1:20
Q4 1:31FG5p · 35y · 0:57
Q4 0:34END1p · -1y · 0:34

Cardinals10 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position2three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

49ers9 drives6scoring drives (5 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position2three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:26Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.0–7
Q2
14:55Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass deep right to M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.0–14
Q2
3:03Field goalC.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.3–14
Q2
0:23Field goalC.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.6–14
Q2
0:00Field goalE.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.PENALTY on ARZ-D.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.6–17
Q3
11:07TouchdownC.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.6–23
Q3
3:02TouchdownJ.Brissett pass short right to Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. SF-G.Halton was injured during the play.13–23
Q4
13:06TouchdownJ.Brissett pass short right to J.Love for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.20–23
Q4
8:42TouchdownB.Purdy pass short middle to G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.20–29
Q4
2:51Touchdown(No Huddle) J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on SF-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.27–29
Q4
1:31TouchdownB.Purdy pass deep right to G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.27–36
Q4
0:34Field goalC.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.30–36

Team stats

ARIvsSF

365Total yards437

272Passing yards297

93Rushing yards140

4.5Yards per play8.7

27First downs23

9-18 · 50%Third down5-8 · 63%

2-2Fourth down0-0

3-5Red zone TDs2-2

38/52Comp / att15/27

3.4Yards per carry6.1

0Turnovers1

2 (−8 yds)Sacks allowed0

10 for 86Penalties7 for 69

38:44Possession21:16

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.169+0.490

Dropback EPA+0.211+0.901

Rush EPA+0.087-0.059

Success rate54%57%

Explosive plays010

Plays8049

Who moved the needle

B.PurdyDropbacks: 28+25.2

J.BrissettDropbacks: 53+11.2

G.KittleTargets: 7+10.2

M.EvansTargets: 6+9.5

Mi.WilsonTargets: 17+5.9

T.McBrideTargets: 11+5.3

Cost their side the most

T.AllgeierTargets: 4-0.6

K.BlackCarries: 4-0.6

C.McCaffreyCarries: 15-0.4

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jacoby BrissettQB	38/52	280	5.4	2	0	2-8	75.7	98.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jeremiyah LoveRB	21	90	4.3	0	8
Jacoby BrissettQB	4	4	1.0	1	2
Tyler AllgeierRB	2	-1	-0.5	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Michael WilsonWR	11	17	89	8.1	1	18
Trey McBrideTE	9	11	75	8.3	0	18
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR	3	5	40	13.3	0	19
Kendrick BourneWR	2	3	22	11.0	0	14
Elijah HigginsTE	3	3	20	6.7	0	9
Jeremiyah LoveRB	5	5	19	3.8	1	8
Tyler AllgeierRB	4	4	10	2.5	0	5
Hunter LongTE	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Jalen BrooksWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Andrew WingardS	10	1	0	0	0
Jack GibbensLB	8	4	1	0	1
Mack Wilson Sr.LB	6	2	0	0	0
Max MeltonCB	4	3	0	1	0
Budda BakerS	4	1	0	0	0
Zaven CollinsLB	3	3	0	2	0
Eku LeotaLB	3	0	0	0	0
Denzel BurkeCB	2	2	0	2	0
Baron BrowningLB	2	1	1	0	1
Elijah HigginsTE	2	1	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chad RylandPK	3/3	100.0	49	3/3	12

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	15/27	297	11.0	4	0	0-0	83.9	133.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian McCaffreyRB	15	75	5.0	1	14
Brock PurdyQB	2	34	17.0	0	35
Kaelon BlackRB	4	17	4.3	0	9
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	2	14	7.0	0	11

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
George KittleTE	6	7	82	13.7	2	20
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	0	0	80	0.0	1	80
Jordan WatkinsWR	2	2	60	30.0	0	34
Christian McCaffreyRB	4	5	41	10.3	0	13
Mike EvansWR	3	6	34	11.3	1	23
Kyle JuszczykFB	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Luke FarrellTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jacob CowingWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kaelon BlackRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Fred WarnerLB	17	7	1	0	1
Renardo GreenCB	13	7	0	1	0
Dre GreenlawLB	8	3	0	0	0
Ji'Ayir BrownS	6	2	0	1	0
Jack Jones	5	3	0	0	0
Deommodore LenoirCB	5	3	0	1	0
Garret WallowLB	4	3	0	0	0
Marques SigleS	4	2	0	0	0
Malik MustaphaS	4	1	0	0	0
Khalid KareemDE	3	3	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	1/1	100.0	57	3/5	6

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

149ers dropback offense vs Cardinals pass defense
The 49ers' dropback offense ranks 1st in EPA per dropback (+0.56, 61 dropbacks) against a Cardinals pass defense ranked 21st (+0.15 allowed, 62 dropbacks faced).
1stSF offense20 spots apart21stARI defense
249ers pass protection vs Cardinals pass rush
The 49ers' pass protection ranks 1st in sack rate (0.0% sacked, 61 dropbacks) against a Cardinals pass rush ranked 18th (6.5% of dropbacks, 62 dropbacks faced).
1stSF offense17 spots apart18thARI defense
349ers red-zone offense vs Cardinals red-zone defense
The 49ers' red-zone offense ranks 1st in red-zone touchdown rate (88%, 8 trips) against a Cardinals red-zone defense ranked 16th (63% allowed, 8 trips faced).
1stSF offense15 spots apart16thARI defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Cardinals have the ballEdge SF · +12 ranks

ARI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSF pass defense

20th+0.0370 dropbacks

SF +12

-0.10 allowed57 dropbacks faced8th

ARI run gameEPA per rushSF run defense

23rd-0.1746 rushes

SF +10

-0.17 allowed55 rushes faced13th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the 49ers have the ballEdge SF · +20 ranks

SF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackARI pass defense

1st+0.5661 dropbacks

SF +20

+0.15 allowed62 dropbacks faced21st

SF run gameEPA per rushARI run defense

9th-0.0250 rushes

-0.23 allowed56 rushes faced9th

Third downEdge SF · +18 ranks

ARI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSF third-down defense

25th36.0%25 third downs

SF +12

37.5% allowed24 third downs faced13th

SF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateARI third-down defense

2nd63.2%19 third downs

SF +18

42.9% allowed21 third downs faced20th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge SF · +17 ranks

ARI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSF red-zone defense

21st50%6 trips

SF +17

20% allowed5 trips faced4th

SF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateARI red-zone defense

1st88%8 trips

SF +15

63% allowed8 trips faced16th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SF · +26 ranks

ARI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSF defense against big plays

31st5.2%116 plays

SF +26

6.3% allowed112 plays faced5th

SF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateARI defense against big plays

6th11.7%111 plays

8.5% allowed118 plays faced13th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge SF · +17 ranks

ARI pass protectionsack rateSF pass rush

7th4.3% sacked70 dropbacks

7.0% of dropbacks57 dropbacks faced13th

SF pass protectionsack rateARI pass rush

1st0.0% sacked61 dropbacks

SF +17

6.5% of dropbacks62 dropbacks faced18th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge ARI · +8 ranks

ARI ball securityturnovers per gameSF takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

ARI +8

1.0 takeaways a game2 games12th

SF ball securityturnovers per gameARI takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game2 games

1.5 takeaways a game2 games7th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: ARI 2 games, 116 offensive and 118 defensive plays · SF 2 games, 111 offensive and 112 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Carson BeckQB→ Jacoby Brissett

Tyler AllgeierRB→ Jeremiyah Love

Reggie VirgilWR→ Michael Wilson

Simi FehokoWR→ Marvin Harrison Jr.

Devin DuvernayWR→ Kendrick Bourne

Jayden WilliamsLT→ Isaiah Adams

Jon Gaines IIRG→ Paris Johnson Jr.

Kei'Trel ClarkLCB→ Garrett Williams

Keenan AllenWR→ KhaDarel Hodge

DeForest BucknerRDT→ Khalid Kareem

Nick BosaRDE→ Ogbo Okoronkwo