NFC South · 2026 season

New OrleansSaints

3-5record2ndin South#11NFC seed-31point diffW1streak

PanthersSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETNO -1.5 · O/U 47.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementRun defenseEPA per rush allowed32nd→10th

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.17 EPA per rush (97 rushes), 10th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: +0.11 EPA per rush (107 rushes), 32nd.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemOffensesuccess rate14th→28th

Over the last 4 games the offense has posted a 39.1% success rate (238 plays), 28th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: a 44.3% success rate (291 plays), 14th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftMartin Emerson, CBdefensive snap share6%→72%

Martin Emerson has played 72% of defensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 6% in the 4 games before. On the field in 4 of 4 and 2 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The New Orleans Saints are 3-5 in the 2026 season, 2nd in the NFC South and the No. 11 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of -31. On offense they rank 22nd in the league in EPA per play (-0.037); on defense they rank 24th (+0.049 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 14% chance to make the playoffs and 0.1% to win the Super Bowl. The New Orleans Saints play next at home against the Carolina Panthers on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the New Orleans Saints record?

3-5, 2nd in the NFC South. Home 1-4, road 2-1, division 0-1, conference 1-3, current streak W1. Points: 185 scored, 216 allowed.

Who do the New Orleans Saints play next?

The New Orleans Saints play next at home against the Carolina Panthers on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the New Orleans Saints' playoff chances?

14% to make the playoffs, 14% to win the NFC South, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 0.5% to win the NFC and 0.1% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 6.5-10.5).

Who is the New Orleans Saints starting quarterback?

Tyler Shough is first on the Saints depth chart at quarterback, with Spencer Rattler behind.

Who is injured for the New Orleans Saints?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: CJ Donaldson (RB, out, shoulder) and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, injured reserve, hamstring). Questionable: Erik McCoy (C, questionable, biceps).

How good is the New Orleans Saints offense and defense?

Offense: 22nd in EPA per play (-0.037), 21st on dropbacks, 24th on runs, success rate 42.0%. Defense: 24th in EPA allowed (+0.049), 22nd against the pass, 28th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “New Orleans Saints 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/saints (updated 2026-11-10).

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From the Saints Desk

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The TapeSaints survive a failed two-point try to beat Browns 23-22 in overtimeNew Orleans scored seven in overtime, then watched Cleveland's 39-yard touchdown fall one point short when the two-point conversion failed.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportSaints are winless at home and face a Browns offense ranked 25thNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Saints, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record3-5

Deserved2.7wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+0.3 luck wins · 13th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 24th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Saints would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games3-3decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index56%12th most timid of 28

Flags, net+1win prob. points · 13th

Bounce & kick luck−13.6points · −1.7 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Saints earned it: the snaps said Saints by 3.0, a deserved win probability of 71%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAFastest tempo, most no-huddle rate in the leagueClosest twin: Eagles (63%)Clock IQ6th of 32 at managing the clockKellen Moore · 3 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real113-5

Deserved–2.7-5.3

Out of the picture in both worldsSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−3.3The market overrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 3-5 against the spread Sliding Doors1loss that one coin-flip play could have flipped117 points of win probability lost to those plays, 61 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 8Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsSaints3-5 · proj 6.5-10.5 · 12th in NFC14%▲ 8 pts

Win it all 0.1% · likeliest seed No. 4 (12%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 8 hardest of 32 · avg opp +0.8 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Saints stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.03722nd

Dropback EPA+0.01621st

Rush EPA-0.13424th

Success rate42.0%20th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.04924th

Pass EPA allowed+0.09622nd

Rush EPA allowed-0.02028th

Success allowed46.7%28th

Pass rate over expected: -1.1% (15th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 529 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 18.1 (18th most) · RB 29.9 (1st most) · WR 31.8 (17th most) · TE 16.5 (7th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 342 dropbacksT.Shough+0.016EPA / dropback-0.2CPOE7.7aDOT46%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
K.Miller RB	57	159	2	-0.29	25%
A.Kamara RB	47	157	2	-0.11	30%
T.Etienne RB	31	130	0	-0.00	48%
C.Donaldson RB	17	81	0	-0.13	47%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
C.Olave WR	83	28%	48%	13.3	734	2	+0.45
D.Vele WR	52	18%	23%	9.9	365	3	+0.40
J.Johnson TE	39	13%	8%	5.0	289	4	+0.30
A.Kamara RB	31	10%	1%	0.5	150	1	-0.03
B.Lance WR	24	8%	12%	12.1	78	1	-0.56
N.Fant TE	18	6%	3%	4.3	96	3	-0.22
K.Miller RB	13	4%	-1%	-1.4	37	0	-0.30
T.Etienne RB	13	4%	0%	-0.7	51	0	-0.03

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

78CMcCoy Sherman

76LGEdwards Sherman

71LTBanks Jr.Richards

6QBShough Rattler

41RBKamara Donaldson ·

14WRVele Brown

DefenseBase 3-4 D

23FSBlackmon Sanker

1LCBMcKinstry Richardson

94LDEJordan Wooden

55LILBElliss Stalbird

7NBSanker Howden

93NTShepherd Boyd

22RCBEmerson Jr.Riley

91RDEBroughton Wilson

20RILBWerner Stutsman

99SLBYoung

21SSReid Styles Jr.

96WLBGranderson Jennings

HolderRyan Wright Kick ReturnerBarion Brown Long SnapperZach Wood PunterRyan Wright Place KickerCharlie Smyth Punt ReturnerBarion Brown

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9
Taliese FuagaT	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
David EdwardsG	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Tyler ShoughQB	100	100	100	100	100	97	100	100
Kelvin BanksT	100	59						100
Cesar RuizC	100	100	100	100	100	40		96
Devaughn VeleWR	91	96	88	89	96	92	89	93
Chris OlaveWR	86	84	84	86	91	58	77	85
Erik McCoyC	100	100	100	100	100	97	100	75
Juwan JohnsonTE	84	53	62	78	64	58	56	53
Bryce LanceWR	69	79	72	85	42	50	79	51
Alvin KamaraRB		29	32	38	27	26	56	49
Noah FantTE	41	44	57		67	58	46	47
Audric EstimeRB								47
William ShermanG				1		3		33

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9
Kaden EllissLB	100	100	100				100	100
Kool-Aid McKinstryCB	100	100	100	100	100	42	100	99
Martin EmersonCB	14	10			21	78	95	95
Julian BlackmonS	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	92
Pete WernerLB	52	93	27	77	100	100	100	92
Jonas SankerS	66	59	66	61	68	90	72	86
Carl GrandersonDE	77	67	51		66	69	70	82
Justin ReidS	100	100	100	100	100	100	53	77
Chase YoungDE	77	67	76	68	72	69	72	71
Colby WoodenDL	23	28	30	39	68	58	69	55
Vernon BroughtonDL	68	57	57	53		52	59	44
Nathan ShepherdDL	71	67	69	58				44
Khristian BoydDL		34	37	44	54	36	38	40
Jordan HowdenDB			3	2	6	1	47	33

With / Without

All Saints splits →

Edge rusherCarl Granderson69% of snapsSmall sample

+0.42Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed+0.005+0.421

Success allowed45.2%59.3%

Points allowed24.445.0

With 7 games · 454 playsWithout 1 game · 54 plays (Wk 4)

Opponents avg rating

With

DET

BAL

MIN

NYG

PIT

CLE-0.3

Without

ATL-3.1

Opponents in the games with him were 2.8 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Asim Richards OT · 2/7, Alvin Kamara RB · 1/7, Vernon Broughton DT · 1/7

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-3)+0.068From Wk 4 on (Wks 4-7)+0.080

Interior lineVernon Broughton56% of snapsSmall sample

-0.18Observed difference
EPA allowed, better without

EPA allowed+0.072-0.104

Success allowed46.8%45.3%

Points allowed27.623.0

With 7 games · 444 playsWithout 1 game · 64 plays (Wk 5)

Opponents avg rating

With

DET

BAL

ATL

NYG

PIT

CLE-1.0

Without

MIN+1.3

Opponents in the games with him were 2.3 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

With games:Asim Richards OT · 2/7, Alvin Kamara RB · 1/7, Carl Granderson EDGE · 1/7

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-4)+0.146From Wk 5 on (Wks 5-9)-0.041

Running backAlvin Kamara37% of snapsSmall sample

-0.01Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play-0.038-0.031

Success42.0%41.9%

Points / game22.130.0

With 7 games · 443 playsWithout 1 game · 86 plays (Wk 1)

Opponents avg rating

With

BAL

ATL

MIN

NYG

PIT

CLE-1.1

Without

DET+2.0

Opponents in the games with him were 3.0 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

Without games:Asim Richards OT · 1/1

With games:Asim Richards OT · 1/7, Carl Granderson EDGE · 1/7, Vernon Broughton DT · 1/7

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

No games before his first absence (Wk 1)From Wk 1 on (Wks 1-4)-0.010

TackleAsim Richards89% of snapsSmall sample

-0.00Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play-0.038-0.035

Success41.7%42.7%

Points / game22.026.5

With 6 games · 372 playsWithout 2 games · 157 plays (Wks 1, 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

BAL

ATL

MIN

NYG

PIT-0.8

Without

DET

CLE-0.5

Opponents of similar strength in both groups

Other starters out

Without games:Alvin Kamara RB · 1/2

With games:Carl Granderson EDGE · 1/6, Vernon Broughton DT · 1/6

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

No games before his first absence (Wk 1)From Wk 1 on (Wks 1-4)-0.010

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key Saints starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Taliese FuagaTackle · 8/8 games100%
Tyler ShoughQuarterback · 8/8 games100%
Julian BlackmonSafety · 8/8 games99%
Kool-Aid McKinstryCornerback · 8/8 games93%
Devaughn VeleWide receiver · 8/8 games92%
Chris OlaveWide receiver · 8/8 games81%
Pete WernerLinebacker · 8/8 games80%
Chase YoungEdge rusher · 8/8 games72%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps · all 11 starters →

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

CJ DonaldsonRB · #43 · ShoulderOut
Travis Etienne Jr.RB · #3 · HamstringIR

Questionable

Erik McCoyC · #78 · BicepsQuestionable

NFC South

Full standings

PanthersDiv 1-1 · Home 1-3 · Road 2-23-5-20 2

SaintsDiv 0-1 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-13-5-31 3

BuccaneersDiv 2-0 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-23-6+24 4

FalconsDiv 1-2 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-23-6-35