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The Verdict2026 · AFC South · through Week 9

Titans logoTennessee TitansThe Verdict

Titans are 1-7; the play says 1.8 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 1-5 in one-score games. On fourth down, Robert Saleh kicked away 6 of 10 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 27th of 32−0.81-7 real · 1.8 deserved · 2.5 Pythagorean
Luck points · 20th of 32−4.0fumble bounces −2.4 · opponents' kicks −1.6
Chicken Index · 11th of 3260%Robert Saleh · 5.5 expected points lost on 34 graded calls
Flags net · 11th of 32+3.8 WP53 flags for 410 yards against · 67 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 3 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 8EarnedGame file →
Titans logoTitans50% success · +0.16 EPA/play
3643
Bengals logoBengals58% success · +0.19 EPA/play

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 2.2, a deserved win probability of 65%.

Deserved marginCIN by 2.2
Real marginCIN by 7
Luck pts TEN+1.4
Luck pts CIN−2.4

The swingQ4 13:40 · CIN · −27 pts of win probability. 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 46 for -3 yards (24-A.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Taylor), RECOVERED by TEN-23-K.Winston at CIN 48. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The…

Week 7EarnedGame file →
Browns logoBrowns56% success · +0.16 EPA/play
2724
Titans logoTitans40% success · −0.05 EPA/play

Browns earned it: the snaps said Browns by 9.7, a deserved win probability of 96%.

Deserved marginCLE by 9.7
Real marginCLE by 3
Luck pts CLE−0.3
Luck pts TEN+2.2

The swingQ4 0:28 · CLE · +23 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin to TEN 19 for 36 yards (23-K.Winston).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-5Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−2.4 ptsKept 3 of 8 own fumbles; won 3 of 5 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−1.6 ptsOpponents made 17 of 20 field goals against an expected 16.8, and 20 of 20 extra points.
Own kicking+2.3 ptsMade 12 of 13 field goals against 11.2 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.16328th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them6-1Our pregame model in Titans games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Robert Saleh · 34 graded fourth downs · went for it 10×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.2 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 43, Wk 6 Q2 8:49, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.49 EP
  2. 2TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 15, Wk 6 Q2 15:00, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  3. 3TEN · 4th & 3Robert Saleh chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 6 Q1 9:44, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.90 EP
  4. 4TEN · 4th & 4Robert Saleh chose Punt at opp 45, Wk 1 Q3 13:09, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.73 EP
  5. 5TEN · 4th & 3Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 42, Wk 3 Q1 4:19, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.52 EP
  6. 6TEN · 4th & 3Robert Saleh chose Punt at own 39, Wk 1 Q3 8:51, down 14. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.45 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Go for it at own 45, Wk 8 Q1 12:46, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 2 Q1 4:28, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  3. 3TEN · 4th & 1Robert Saleh chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 7 Q2 9:39, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4TEN · 4th & 2Robert Saleh chose Go for it at opp 2, Wk 4 Q2 8:20, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 1 · own 45 · Q1 12:468Go for itGo for it1.09-0.46–✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 28 · Q1 10:578Field goalField goal1.25–2.19✓good
4th & 6 · opp 11 · Q1 2:188Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.72–2.87✓good
4th & 5 · own 25 · Q2 2:198PuntPunt-1.57-1.32–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 32 · Q3 3:498PuntPunt-1.83-0.96–✓punted
4th & 16 · own 42 · Q4 0:278Puntnot graded-1.38-0.56–punted
4th & 3 · own 35 · OT 5:408Go for itnot graded-0.47-0.83–stopped
4th & 7 · own 38 · Q1 4:197PuntPunt-1.03-0.71–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 9:397Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓stopped
4th & 6 · own 30 · Q2 1:517Puntnot graded-1.41-1.06–punted
4th & 10 · own 40 · Q3 3:487PuntPunt-1.18-0.63–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 11 · Q4 8:447Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.87✓good
4th & 8 · opp 43 · Q4 2:337Go for itnot graded0.05-0.190.20converted
4th & 3 · opp 47 · Q1 9:446PuntGo for it0.65-0.26-0.53−0.90punted
4th & 1 · own 15 · Q2 15:006PuntGo for it-0.78-1.93–−1.15punted
4th & 1 · own 43 · Q2 8:496PuntGo for it0.96-0.52–−1.49punted
4th & 7 · opp 11 · Q3 13:336Field goalField goal2.53–2.87✓good
4th & 7 · opp 38 · Q3 3:266Field goalField goal0.47-0.131.03✓good
4th & 5 · opp 31 · Q4 2:076Field goalnot graded1.21-0.111.92good
4th & 5 · opp 26 · Q4 0:476Field goalnot graded1.54–2.34good
4th & 4 · opp 12 · Q1 10:425Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.74–2.86✓good
4th & 10 · own 13 · Q1 7:435PuntPunt-2.98-2.07–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 23 · Q2 5:575PuntPunt-2.00-1.43–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 47 · Q2 0:165Puntnot graded-0.66-0.40–punted
4th & 15 · own 43 · Q3 2:205Puntnot graded-1.27-0.52–punted
4th & 20 · opp 43 · Q4 8:575Go for itnot graded-0.55-0.190.20stopped
4th & 19 · own 48 · Q4 0:245Go for itnot graded-1.09-0.37–stopped
4th & 11 · own 18 · Q1 0:174PuntPunt-2.70-1.73–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 8:204Go for itGo for it3.29–2.95✓stopped
4th & 7 · opp 47 · Q2 1:464Puntnot graded-0.09-0.26-0.53punted
4th & 5 · opp 15 · Q3 6:554Field goalnot graded2.31–2.80good
4th & 10 · own 14 · Q3 2:104Puntnot graded-2.91-2.00–punted
4th & 3 · own 22 · Q4 14:094Puntnot graded-1.30-1.49–punted
4th & 13 · own 17 · Q4 9:464Puntnot graded-2.90-1.80–punted
4th & 11 · opp 36 · Q4 1:514Go for itnot graded0.26-0.121.32converted
4th & 5 · own 16 · Q1 10:593PuntPunt-2.17-1.87–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 42 · Q1 4:193PuntGo for it-0.04-0.56–−0.52punted
4th & 9 · own 48 · Q1 1:203PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.60-0.37–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 13 · Q2 12:083PuntPunt-2.69-2.07–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 41 · Q2 3:053PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.36-0.59–−0.24punted
4th & 14 · opp 41 · Q2 0:463Field goalnot graded-0.22-0.160.55missed
4th & 5 · opp 7 · Q3 1:113Go for itGo for it (toss-up)3.08–2.92✓stopped
4th & 11 · own 30 · Q1 13:482PuntPunt-1.89-1.06–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 4:282Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 16 · own 45 · Q2 9:372PuntPunt-1.19-0.46–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 19 · Q2 0:032Field goalnot graded1.38–2.69good
4th & 4 · own 22 · Q3 10:172PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.56-1.49–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 40 · Q4 12:462PuntPunt-1.10-0.63–✓punted
4th & 14 · opp 14 · Q4 2:002Field goalnot graded0.84–2.82good
4th & 4 · opp 24 · Q1 5:081Field goalField goal1.88–2.46✓good
4th & 8 · own 39 · Q1 1:581PuntPunt-1.07-0.67–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 49 · Q2 1:181Puntnot graded0.52-0.30–punted
4th & 4 · opp 45 · Q3 13:091PuntGo for it0.51-0.22-0.16−0.73punted
4th & 3 · own 39 · Q3 8:511PuntGo for it-0.22-0.67–−0.45punted
4th & 9 · opp 43 · Q3 1:121Puntnot graded-0.04-0.190.20punted
4th & 13 · own 13 · Q4 12:091Puntnot graded-3.18-2.07–punted
4th & 5 · own 18 · Q4 8:111Puntnot graded-2.04-1.73–punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Offside on TEN in Week 7, worth +7 points of win probability to CLE.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive OffsideTEN → helped CLE · Wk 7 Q2 2:27 · 4-D.Watson up the middle to TEN 9 for 2 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced…+7.1 WP
  2. 2Defensive OffsideTEN → helped PHI · Wk 2 Q1 10:28 · 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 37 for 1 yard (53-A.Hill). PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Martin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at…+6.5 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingTEN → helped CLE · Wk 7 Q3 5:08 · (No Huddle) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to CLE 49 for 5 yards (5-Q.Williams). PENALTY on TEN-70-A.Mafi, Offensive Holding, 10…+5.7 WP
  4. 4Illegal FormationTEN → helped PHI · Wk 2 Q4 3:33 · (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 4-W.Robinson. PENALTY on TEN-55-J.Latham, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced…+5.5 WP
  5. 5Illegal Use of HandsTEN → helped PHI · Wk 2 Q2 4:22 · (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end ran ob at TEN 31 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Use of Hands, 5…+5.3 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding2019538.2
Defensive Offside84020.8
False Start6307.6
Defensive Pass Interference3416.6
Offensive Pass Interference2206.5
Kickoff Short of Landing Zone205.8
Illegal Formation2105.5
Illegal Use of Hands155.3

Flags drawn

  1. 1EncroachmentNYG → helped TEN · Wk 3 Q4 0:50 · (Run formation) PENALTY on NYG-49-T.Edmunds, Encroachment, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 24 - No Play.+12.5 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceIND → helped TEN · Wk 6 Q4 5:26 · 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Tate (29-C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-25-A.Haulcy has returned to the game.…+10.2 WP
  3. 3Defensive Too Many Men on FieldCLE → helped TEN · Wk 7 Q3 9:06 · (Punt formation) PENALTY on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 20 - No Play.+6.9 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessBAL → helped TEN · Wk 4 Q2 10:48 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.+6.3 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceCIN → helped TEN · Wk 8 Q3 7:54 · (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 84-G.Helm. PENALTY on CIN-6-B.Cook, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards,…+5.2 WP

Garbage Time Tax

19.8% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 16th most of 32

Bottom lineWan'Dale Robinson: 87 of 262 yards (33%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Cam WardTEN · passing · 1,483 yds25%
Tony PollardTEN · rushing · 595 yds12%
Carnell TateTEN · receiving · 413 yds32%
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · receiving · 262 yds33%

Our picks on the Titans

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 8We gave the Titans 17% at bengals. 36-43 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 7We gave the Titans 42% at home against browns. 27-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Titans 36% at colts. 26-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Titans 50% at home against texans. 26-3 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Titans 27% at ravens. 18-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Titans 48% at giants. 7-12 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Titans 43% at home against eagles. 24-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Tennessee Titans verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/titans/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.