Bills 23, Vikings 6: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Mon, Nov 9 · U.S. Bank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
BUF	3	7	3	10	23
MIN	0	6	0	0	6

Home · 6-2MinnesotaVikings6

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-6 on Mon, Nov 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bills 7-1, Vikings 6-2. K.Shakir (BUF) led all players with +5.2 EPA on 4 targets.

Who won Bills vs Vikings?

The Buffalo Bills won 23-6. By quarter: BUF 3-7-3-10, MIN 0-6-0-0.

Who was the best player in Bills vs Vikings?

By expected points added: K.Shakir (BUF, +5.2 EPA on 4 targets), D.Kincaid (BUF, +3.2 EPA on 3 targets) and J.Addison (MIN, +1.8 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Bills vs Vikings?

The biggest swing in win probability (10 points toward the Bills) came in Q1 at 5:30: C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to J.Jefferson.Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-G.Rousseau at MIN 44.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills 23, Vikings 6: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-09-buf-at-min (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9EarnedGame file →

Bills40% success · −0.04 EPA/play

236

Vikings27% success · −0.68 EPA/play

BUF 100% deserveddeserved 0% MIN

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 20.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBUF by 20.0

Real marginBUF by 17

Luck pts BUF+0.8

Luck pts MIN−3.3

The swingQ1 5:30 · MIN · −14 pts of win probability. 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson. Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 11-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-15-G.Rousseau at MIN 44.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceBUF → helped MIN · Wk 9 Q3 13:26 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 33-A.Jones (8-T.Bernard). PENALTY on BUF-8-T.Bernard, Defensive Pass…+9.4 WP
2Intentional GroundingBUF → helped MIN · Wk 9 Q1 6:34 · 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [43-A.Van Ginkel]. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced…+5.7 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIN · 4th & 1Kevin O'Connell chose Field goal at opp 25, Wk 9 Q2 4:06, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.63 EP
2MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Punt at midfield, Wk 9 Q1 1:08, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.33 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA146 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 4 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCarl Cheffers12 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 3 · Snaps: BUF by 20.0Bills covered; the snaps agree

23@6

Week 9

If the Vikings had stopped that fourth-and-1

Vikings after the play9%what really happened

Q4 10:15 17-J.Allen left guard to MIN 38 for no gain (97-D.Orange). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-J.Allen left guard to MIN 37 for 1 yard (97-D.Orange).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

MIN ▲BUF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+10%Q1 5:30 · for BUFC.Wentz pass incomplete short right to J.Jefferson.Buffalo challenged the forward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 43, RECOVERED by BUF-G.Rousseau at MIN 44.
+9%Q3 4:10 · for BUF(Shotgun) C.Wentz pass short middle intended for J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by T.Bernard at BUF 34. T.Bernard to BUF 39 for 5 yards (B.O'Neill).
+8%Q2 0:44 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to K.Latu for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [A.Van Ginkel]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
+7%Q3 11:08 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left to T.Johnson to MIN 39 for 36 yards (Jac.Thomas).
+7%Q3 13:17 · for BUFC.Wentz pass deep right intended for T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by D.Williams at BUF 11. D.Williams to BUF 11 for no gain (T.Hockenson).

Every drive, on the field

MIN attacks →← BUF attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · -11y · 1:57
Q1 13:03PUNT3p · 6y · 1:30
Q1 11:33INT12p · 31y · 6:03
Q1 5:30FUM1p · -3y · 0:03
Q1 5:27FG7p · 23y · 3:30
Q1 1:57PUNT3p · 5y · 1:00
Q1 0:57PUNT3p · -1y · 0:57
Q2 15:00PUNT3p · 0y · 1:34
Q2 13:26PUNT3p · -3y · 1:31
Q2 11:55PUNT5p · 10y · 3:11
Q2 8:44PUNT5p · 1y · 3:08
Q2 5:36FG4p · 9y · 1:34
Q2 4:02TD8p · 80y · 3:18
Q2 0:44FG7p · 46y · 0:39
Q2 0:05HALF1p · -1y · 0:05
Q3 15:00INT3p · 25y · 1:49
Q3 13:11FG14p · 83y · 7:08
Q3 6:03INT4p · 24y · 1:59
Q3 4:04PUNT4p · 15y · 3:31
Q3 0:33PUNT3p · 4y · 0:44
Q4 14:49TD15p · 84y · 8:32
Q4 6:17DOWNS4p · 6y · 0:39
Q4 5:38FG4p · 7y · 0:58
Q4 4:40DOWNS8p · 52y · 2:46
Q4 1:54END3p · -2y · 1:54

Bills11 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Vikings12 drives2scoring drives (0 TD)17%drives ending in pointsOWN 37avg starting field position4three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
1:57Field goalT.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.3–0
Q2
4:02Field goalW.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.3–3
Q2
0:44Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to K.Latu for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [A.Van Ginkel]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.10–3
Q2
0:05Field goal W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.10–6
Q3
6:03Field goal T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.13–6
Q4
6:17TouchdownJ.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.20–6
Q4
4:40Field goalT.Bass 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.23–6

Team stats

BUFvsMIN

339Total yards178

205Passing yards127

134Rushing yards51

4.3Yards per play3.9

22First downs9

7-18 · 39%Third down0-8 · 0%

1-1Fourth down0-2

1-3Red zone TDs0-1

21/31Comp / att14/32

3.0Yards per carry4.3

1Turnovers3

4 (−29 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−12 yds)

8 for 62Penalties4 for 20

42:32Possession17:28

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.045-0.752

Dropback EPA+0.000-0.795

Rush EPA-0.086-0.633

Success rate40%27%

Explosive plays52

Plays7545

Who moved the needle

K.ShakirTargets: 4+5.2

D.KincaidTargets: 3+3.2

J.AddisonTargets: 3+1.8

J.AllenCarries: 5+1.8

D.KnoxTargets: 5+1.7

J.MasonCarries: 6+0.2

Cost their side the most

C.WentzDropbacks: 25-24.5

J.JeffersonTargets: 11-12.1

T.HockensonTargets: 7-7.4

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	21/31	234	7.5	1	1	4-29	74.7	87.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	31	107	3.5	1	11
Josh AllenQB	6	15	2.5	0	7
DJ MooreWR	1	11	11.0	0	11
Ray DavisRB	2	2	1.0	0	2
Ty JohnsonRB	1	1	1.0	0	1
Kyle AllenQB	3	-2	-0.7	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Khalil ShakirWR	4	4	58	14.5	0	22
Dawson KnoxTE	4	5	37	9.3	0	12
Ty JohnsonRB	2	2	36	18.0	0	36
Dalton KincaidTE	3	3	28	9.3	0	12
DJ MooreWR	3	5	25	8.3	0	15
Keleki LatuTE	1	1	25	25.0	1	25
Keon ColemanWR	3	6	17	5.7	0	11
Jackson HawesTE	1	1	8	8.0	0	8
James Cook IIIRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ray DavisRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	PD	QB HTS
Terrel BernardLB	6	2	2	1
Dee AlfordCB	4	3	0	0
Cole BishopS	4	3	0	0
Dorian WilliamsLB	3	0	1	0
TJ ParkerLB	3	1	0	0
Ed OliverDT	2	1	0	3
Christian BenfordCB	2	2	1	0
Kaleb Elarms-OrrLB	2	2	0	0
Damar HamlinS	2	2	0	0
Te'Cory CouchCB	2	2	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	3/3	100.0	52	2/2	11

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Carson WentzQB	8/25	81	3.2	0	2	1-6	2.3	8.9
Max BrosmerQB	6/7	58	8.3	0	0	1-6	40.8	101.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jordan MasonRB	6	35	5.8	11
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	5	16	3.2	5
Carson WentzQB	1	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Justin JeffersonWR	3	11	58	19.3	24
T.J. HockensonTE	4	7	33	8.3	14
Jordan AddisonWR	2	3	28	14.0	16
Jordan MasonRB	2	3	7	3.5	4
Myles PriceWR	1	4	6	6.0	6
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	1	1	5	5.0	5
DeeJay DallasRB	1	1	2	2.0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Blake CashmanLB	12	6	0	1	2	0
Eric WilsonLB	9	3	0	1	0	0
Joshua MetellusS	8	3	0	0	0	1
James PierreCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Dallas TurnerLB	5	2	1	1	1	1
Levi Drake RodriguezDT	5	2	0	0	0	0
Elijah WilliamsDE	5	2	0	0	0	0
Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDE	5	0	0.5	0	0	1
Jalen RedmondDT	5	2	0.5	0	0	2
Ivan Pace Jr.LB	4	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	2/2	100.0	53	0/0	6

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Vikings takeaway defense vs Bills ball security
The Vikings' takeaway defense ranks 5th in turnovers per game (1.6 takeaways a game, 7 games) and faces a Bills ball security ranked 26th (1.6 giveaways a game, 7 games).
26thBUF offense21 spots apart5thMIN defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Bills big-play offense vs Vikings defense against big plays
The Bills' big-play offense ranks 1st in explosive-play rate (14.7%, 429 plays) against a Vikings defense against big plays ranked 14th (9.1% allowed, 406 plays faced).
1stBUF offense13 spots apart14thMIN defense

When the Bills have the ballNo big edge

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIN pass defense

1st+0.29241 dropbacks

-0.21 allowed235 dropbacks faced1st

BUF run gameEPA per rushMIN run defense

6th+0.02188 rushes

-0.12 allowed171 rushes faced9th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Vikings have the ballEdge BUF · +11 ranks

MIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

24th-0.02233 dropbacks

+0.14 allowed295 dropbacks faced24th

MIN run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

28th-0.21169 rushes

BUF +11

-0.08 allowed164 rushes faced17th

Third downNo big edge

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIN third-down defense

5th46.7%75 third downs

30.8% allowed91 third downs faced2nd

MIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

23rd38.1%97 third downs

42.4% allowed92 third downs faced21st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIN red-zone defense

5th68%31 trips

25% allowed16 trips faced1st

MIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

21st53%17 trips

66% allowed29 trips faced23rd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge BUF · +13 ranks

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIN defense against big plays

1st14.7%429 plays

BUF +13

9.1% allowed406 plays faced14th

MIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

15th9.2%402 plays

MIN +8

10.0% allowed459 plays faced23rd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge MIN · +10 ranks

BUF pass protectionsack rateMIN pass rush

11th5.4% sacked241 dropbacks

MIN +10

10.6% of dropbacks235 dropbacks faced1st

MIN pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

30th9.0% sacked233 dropbacks

5.1% of dropbacks295 dropbacks faced26th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge MIN · +21 ranks

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameMIN takeaway defense

26th1.6 giveaways a game7 games

MIN +21

1.6 takeaways a game7 games5th

MIN ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

6th0.7 giveaways a game7 games

1.3 takeaways a game7 games12th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: BUF 7 games, 429 offensive and 459 defensive plays · MIN 7 games, 402 offensive and 406 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Dalton KincaidTE→ Dawson Knox

Dion DawkinsLT→ Austin Corbett

Alec AndersonLG→ Tylan Grable

Max BredesonFB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Jauan JenningsWR→ Myles Price

Caleb BanksNT→ Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

AwayBills2 questionable · 3 changes