Cowboys 27, Colts 23: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Lucas Oil StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	3	14	3	7	27
IND	7	0	10	6	23

Home · 2-7IndianapolisColts23

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

The Dallas Cowboys beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-23 on Sun, Nov 8 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Cowboys 4-5, Colts 2-7. D.Prescott (DAL) led all players with +8.2 EPA on 38 dropbacks.

Who won Cowboys vs Colts?

The Dallas Cowboys won 27-23. By quarter: DAL 3-14-3-7, IND 7-0-10-6.

Who was the best player in Cowboys vs Colts?

By expected points added: D.Prescott (DAL, +8.2 EPA on 38 dropbacks), R.Flournoy (DAL, +3.5 EPA on 3 targets) and S.McGowan (IND, +3.0 EPA on 6 carries).

What was the turning point of Cowboys vs Colts?

The biggest swing in win probability (29 points toward the Cowboys) came in Q4 at 1:37: (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right to R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (A.Gardner).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Cowboys 27, Colts 23: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-08-dal-at-ind (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9EarnedGame file →

Cowboys46% success · +0.14 EPA/play

2723

Colts44% success · −0.16 EPA/play

DAL 99% deserveddeserved 1% IND

Cowboys earned it: the snaps said Cowboys by 13.8, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginDAL by 13.8

Real marginDAL by 4

Luck pts DAL−4.8

Luck pts IND+3.6

The swingQ4 1:37 · DAL · +29 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (1-A.Gardner).

Flags that moved this game

1Intentional GroundingIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:03 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on IND-17-D.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at IND 26.…+14.3 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 10:48 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 80-D.Burks (26-D.Bland). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass…+12.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at own 39, Wk 9 Q4 7:50, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.38 EP
2IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 20, Wk 9 Q2 6:02, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
3DAL · 4th & 4Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at opp 46, Wk 9 Q2 7:23, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA160 plays, one strand4 lead changes · 14 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin23 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: DAL by 4.5 · Snaps: DAL by 13.8Colts covered; the snaps say Cowboys should have

27@23

Week 9Changes the winner

If the Colts had fallen on their own fumble

Colts after the play31%what really happened

Q4 9:55 28-J.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (92-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (92-Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-50-S.James at DAL 19. 50-S.James to DAL 30 for 11 yards (17-D.Jones). PENALTY on DAL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

IND ▲DAL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+29%Q4 1:37 · for DAL(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right to R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (A.Gardner).
+26%Q4 1:19 · for DAL(Shotgun) J.Williams up the middle to IND 11 for 8 yards (H.Wohler).PENALTY on IND-G.Stewart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at IND 11.
+21%Q4 1:37 · for INDS.Shrader 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
+20%Q4 9:54 · for DALJ.Taylor up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (Q.Williams). FUMBLES (Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-S.James at DAL 19. S.James to DAL 30 for 11 yards (D.Jones).PENALTY on DAL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.
+18%Q4 3:34 · for INDB.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.

Every drive, on the field

IND attacks →← DAL attacks

Q1 15:00FG7p · 34y · 3:15
Q1 11:45PUNT3p · 8y · 2:04
Q1 9:41FUM3p · 2y · 0:52
Q1 8:49TD6p · 19y · 2:36
Q1 6:13TD15p · 65y · 7:05
Q2 14:08PUNT3p · 2y · 1:07
Q2 13:01PUNT3p · 1y · 1:38
Q2 11:23PUNT3p · -8y · 2:03
Q2 9:20PUNT4p · 18y · 2:03
Q2 7:17PUNT3p · 9y · 1:21
Q2 5:56PUNT4p · 6y · 3:45
Q2 2:11PUNT6p · 22y · 1:22
Q2 0:49TD4p · 75y · 0:28
Q2 0:21HALF2p · 12y · 0:21
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 6y · 1:04
Q3 13:56PUNT3p · 5y · 2:32
Q3 11:24FG11p · 29y · 5:12
Q3 6:12FG10p · 60y · 4:02
Q3 2:10TD2p · 60y · 0:53
Q3 1:17FUM6p · 73y · 4:27
Q4 11:50FUM4p · 72y · 2:01
Q4 9:49PUNT4p · 24y · 2:06
Q4 7:43FG5p · 42y · 1:47
Q4 5:56MISS6p · 38y · 2:26
Q4 3:30FG8p · 28y · 1:53
Q4 1:37TD4p · 65y · 0:29
Q4 1:08INT3p · -12y · 0:33
Q4 0:35END1p · -1y · 0:35

Cowboys13 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)38%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Colts13 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)38%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position5three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:45Field goalB.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.3–0
Q1
6:13TouchdownL.Tenuta reported in as eligible. S.McGowan right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.3–7
Q2
14:08Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.10–7
Q2
0:21Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.17–7
Q3
6:12Field goalS.Shrader 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.17–10
Q3
2:10Field goalB.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.20–10
Q3
1:17Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to A.Dulin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.20–17
Q4
5:56Field goalS.Shrader 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.20–20
Q4
1:37Field goalS.Shrader 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.20–23
Q4
1:08Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Jones reported in as eligible. J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.27–23

Team stats

DALvsIND

508Total yards271

329Passing yards166

179Rushing yards105

7.2Yards per play4.6

22First downs15

5-16 · 31%Third down3-13 · 23%

1-1Fourth down0-0

2-3Red zone TDs1-2

21/34Comp / att20/34

5.3Yards per carry4.6

2Turnovers2

3 (−6 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−14 yds)

14 for 153Penalties9 for 67

35:43Possession24:17

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.140-0.208

Dropback EPA+0.215-0.258

Rush EPA+0.050-0.118

Success rate46%44%

Explosive plays132

Plays7059

Who moved the needle

D.PrescottDropbacks: 38+8.2

R.FlournoyTargets: 3+3.5

S.McGowanCarries: 6+3.0

C.LambTargets: 16+2.7

T.GoodsonCarries: 12+2.6

J.WilliamsTargets: 5+2.5

Cost their side the most

D.JonesDropbacks: 38-9.8

J.TaylorCarries: 13-6.1

K.AllenTargets: 8-3.8

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Dak PrescottQB	21/34	335	9.9	2	0	3-6	83.6	114.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Javonte WilliamsRB	20	101	5.1	1	15
Tyler GoodsonRB	12	77	6.4	0	13
Dak PrescottQB	2	1	0.5	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
CeeDee LambWR	10	16	195	19.5	1	48
Ryan FlournoyWR	2	3	53	26.5	0	46
Jonathan MingoWR	1	3	23	23.0	0	23
Javonte WilliamsRB	4	5	23	5.8	0	13
Jake FergusonTE	2	2	21	10.5	1	11
Brevyn Spann-FordTE	2	3	20	10.0	0	16
Jordan HudsonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Tyler GoodsonRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Quinnen WilliamsDT	7	3	0	3	0	1
Rashan GaryLB	6	5	1	2	0	1
Malik HookerS	5	5	0	0	0	0
Otito OgbonniaDT	5	2	0	0	0	0
Shemar JamesLB	5	4	0	0	0	0
P.J. LockeS	4	2	0	0	2	0
James HoustonLB	4	3	0	0	0	0
DaRon BlandCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Dee WintersLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Caleb DownsS	3	2	1	1	2	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brandon AubreyPK	2/3	66.7	45	3/3	9

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	20/34	180	5.3	1	1	2-14	13.4	70.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	13	46	3.5	0	7
Seth McGowanRB	6	45	7.5	1	36
Daniel JonesQB	3	11	3.7	0	6
Ashton DulinWR	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ashton DulinWR	1	2	55	55.0	1	55
Tyler WarrenTE	4	7	44	11.0	0	13
Keenan AllenWR	4	8	26	6.5	0	11
Josh DownsWR	3	6	24	8.0	0	9
Jonathan TaylorRB	5	5	18	3.6	0	6
Anthony GouldWR	1	1	16	16.0	0	16
Deion BurksWR	1	1	0	0.0	0	0
Laquon TreadwellWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Seth McGowanRB	1	1	-3	-3.0	0	-3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Hunter WohlerS	16	6	0	0	0	0
Bryce BoettcherLB	12	4	0	0	0	0
CJ AllenLB	10	3	0	1	1	0
Sauce GardnerCB	6	5	0	0	1	0
Cam BynumS	4	1	0	0	2	0
Jaylon CarliesLB	3	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylahn TuimoloauDE	3	1	1	1	1	1
Kenneth HarrisCB	3	1	0	0	1	0
Jerry TilleryDT	3	2	0	1	0	0
Caden CurryLB	3	1	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	3/3	100.0	59	2/2	11

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Colts run game vs Cowboys run defense
The Colts' run game ranks 5th in EPA per rush (+0.02, 211 rushes) against a Cowboys run defense ranked 29th (-0.01 allowed, 215 rushes faced).
5thIND offense24 spots apart29thDAL defense
2Cowboys ball security vs Colts takeaway defense
The Cowboys' ball security ranks 8th in turnovers per game (0.8 giveaways a game, 8 games) against a Colts takeaway defense ranked 31st (0.5 takeaways a game, 8 games).
8thDAL offense23 spots apart31stIND defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Cowboys pass protection vs Colts pass rush
The Cowboys' pass protection ranks 2nd in sack rate (3.3% sacked, 333 dropbacks) against a Colts pass rush ranked 17th (6.2% of dropbacks, 259 dropbacks faced).
2ndDAL offense15 spots apart17thIND defense

When the Cowboys have the ballEdge DAL · +21 ranks

DAL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

9th+0.15333 dropbacks

DAL +13

+0.10 allowed259 dropbacks faced22nd

DAL run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

9th-0.01182 rushes

DAL +21

+0.02 allowed194 rushes faced30th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Colts have the ballEdge IND · +24 ranks

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDAL pass defense

31st-0.21303 dropbacks

+0.23 allowed293 dropbacks faced30th

IND run gameEPA per rushDAL run defense

5th+0.02211 rushes

IND +24

-0.01 allowed215 rushes faced29th

Third downEdge IND · +15 ranks

DAL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

3rd49.5%101 third downs

33.0% allowed91 third downs faced5th

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDAL third-down defense

16th39.8%108 third downs

IND +15

53.4% allowed103 third downs faced31st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DAL · +12 ranks

DAL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

6th68%34 trips

DAL +12

62% allowed21 trips faced18th

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDAL red-zone defense

15th59%22 trips

IND +11

70% allowed33 trips faced26th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

DAL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

29th6.8%515 plays

9.9% allowed453 plays faced22nd

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDAL defense against big plays

21st8.6%514 plays

10.8% allowed508 plays faced27th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DAL · +15 ranks

DAL pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

2nd3.3% sacked333 dropbacks

DAL +15

6.2% of dropbacks259 dropbacks faced17th

IND pass protectionsack rateDAL pass rush

24th7.6% sacked303 dropbacks

5.1% of dropbacks293 dropbacks faced25th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DAL · +23 ranks

DAL ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

8th0.8 giveaways a game8 games

DAL +23

0.5 takeaways a game8 games31st

IND ball securityturnovers per gameDAL takeaway defense

30th1.9 giveaways a game8 games

0.8 takeaways a game8 games30th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DAL 8 games, 515 offensive and 508 defensive plays · IND 8 games, 514 offensive and 453 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Hunter LuepkeFB→ Tyler Goodson

George PickensWR→ Jonathan Mingo

Otito OgbonniaNT→ Shemar James

DeMarvion OvershownLILB→ James Houston

Joey Porter Jr.LCB→ Cobie Durant

Markquese BellSS→ P.J. Locke

Akeem Davis-GaitherWLB→ Caden Curry

Justin WalleyNB→ Kapena Gushiken

A.J. HaulcySS→ Hunter Wohler

AwayCowboys2 next man up · 4 questionable · 6 changes