Texans 26, Titans 3: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Nissan StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	3	9	7	7	26
TEN	3	0	0	0	3

Home · 1-7TennesseeTitans3

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:57 PM ET

The Houston Texans beat the Tennessee Titans 26-3 on Sun, Oct 11 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Texans 3-5, Titans 1-7. C.Stroud (HOU) led all players with +10.5 EPA on 36 dropbacks.

Who won Texans vs Titans?

The Houston Texans won 26-3. By quarter: HOU 3-9-7-7, TEN 3-0-0-0.

Who was the best player in Texans vs Titans?

By expected points added: C.Stroud (HOU, +10.5 EPA on 36 dropbacks), N.Collins (HOU, +4.5 EPA on 7 targets) and W.Robinson (TEN, +4.4 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of Texans vs Titans?

The biggest swing in win probability (10 points toward the Texans) came in Q2 at 12:17: C.Ward pass short middle intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by J.Hansen (D.Hunter) [D.Hunter] at HST 40. J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (G.Helm).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Texans 26, Titans 3: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-hou-at-ten (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Texans46% success · +0.08 EPA/play

263

Titans38% success · −0.34 EPA/play

HOU >99% deserveddeserved <1% TEN

Texans earned it: the snaps said Texans by 18.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginHOU by 18.0

Real marginHOU by 23

Luck pts HOU+3.8

Luck pts TEN−5.7

The swingQ2 12:17 · TEN · −17 pts of win probability. 1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Hansen (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter] at HOU 40. 35-J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (84-G.Helm).

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingHOU → helped TEN · Wk 5 Q3 12:53 · (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 46 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 21-M.Robinson). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Offensive…+3.5 WP
2Unsportsmanlike ConductHOU → helped TEN · Wk 5 Q1 7:43 · 3-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-34-B.Hall, Unsportsmanlike…+3.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1HOU · 4th & 5DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 49, Wk 5 Q1 9:12, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP
2HOU · 4th & 2DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 17, Wk 5 Q2 13:37, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.26 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA142 plays, one strand1 lead change · 7 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Kemp18 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: HOU by 6.5 · Snaps: HOU by 18.0Texans covered; the snaps agree

26@3

Week 5

If the 53-yard kick had missed

Titans after the play22%what really happened

Q2 1:20 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

TEN ▲HOU ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+10%Q2 12:17 · for HOUC.Ward pass short middle intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by J.Hansen (D.Hunter) [D.Hunter] at HST 40. J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (G.Helm).
+10%Q1 1:49 · for HOUT.Spears left tackle to TEN 37 for -1 yards (D.Robinson). FUMBLES (D.Robinson), RECOVERED by HST-J.Pitre at TEN 35.
+6%Q2 14:19 · for TEN(Shotgun) W.Marks right end to TEN 17 for no gain (T.Adams).
+5%Q1 10:47 · for HOU(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short left to E.Ayomanor.
+5%Q2 8:40 · for TENC.Stroud pass incomplete short right.PENALTY on HST-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 11 - No Play.

Every drive, on the field

TEN attacks →← HOU attacks

Q1 15:00FG9p · 58y · 4:21
Q1 10:39PUNT4p · 18y · 1:38
Q1 9:01PUNT3p · 0y · 1:26
Q1 7:35FG10p · 49y · 5:13
Q1 2:22FUM2p · 3y · 0:38
Q1 1:44FG6p · 18y · 3:11
Q2 13:33INT3p · 15y · 1:26
Q2 12:07FG9p · 34y · 5:11
Q2 6:56PUNT3p · 3y · 1:12
Q2 5:44FG8p · 34y · 4:29
Q2 1:15PUNT6p · 17y · 1:05
Q2 0:10HALF1p · -1y · 0:10
Q3 15:00TD17p · 74y · 8:23
Q3 6:37PUNT8p · 17y · 4:27
Q3 2:10TD7p · 74y · 3:01
Q4 14:09DOWNS11p · 22y · 5:16
Q4 8:53PUNT4p · -2y · 3:04
Q4 5:49DOWNS14p · 27y · 5:30
Q4 0:19END1p · -1y · 0:19

Texans8 drives6scoring drives (2 TD)75%drives ending in pointsOWN 40avg starting field position0three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Titans9 drives1scoring drives (0 TD)11%drives ending in pointsOWN 24avg starting field position2three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:39Field goal J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.0–3
Q1
2:22Field goal K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.3–3
Q2
13:33Field goalK.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.6–3
Q2
6:56Field goalK.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.9–3
Q2
1:15Field goalK.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.12–3
Q3
6:37Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.19–3
Q4
14:09Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short left to J.Noel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.26–3

Team stats

HOUvsTEN

329Total yards187

250Passing yards130

79Rushing yards57

5.2Yards per play3.2

20First downs15

6-12 · 50%Third down4-11 · 36%

0-0Fourth down0-2

2-4Red zone TDs0-1

26/34Comp / att23/36

2.9Yards per carry3.2

0Turnovers2

2 (−11 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−40 yds)

11 for 95Penalties7 for 83

34:39Possession25:21

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.132-0.388

Dropback EPA+0.292-0.426

Rush EPA-0.098-0.297

Success rate46%38%

Explosive plays52

Plays6158

Who moved the needle

C.StroudDropbacks: 36+10.5

N.CollinsTargets: 7+4.5

W.RobinsonTargets: 7+4.4

X.HutchinsonTargets: 5+4.4

K.BoutteTargets: 5+2.7

D.SchultzTargets: 4+2.2

Cost their side the most

C.WardDropbacks: 41-17.5

T.SpearsTargets: 9-2.9

C.TateTargets: 5-2.9

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
C.J. StroudQB	26/34	261	7.7	1	0	2-11	66.0	107.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Woody MarksRB	15	62	4.1	0	12
David MontgomeryRB	5	11	2.2	0	5
C.J. StroudQB	6	5	0.8	1	2
Jaylin NoelWR	1	1	1.0	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Xavier HutchinsonWR	4	5	65	16.3	0	18
Nico CollinsWR	5	7	56	11.2	0	20
Jaylin NoelWR	5	5	41	8.2	1	13
Kayshon BoutteWR	3	5	38	12.7	0	23
Dalton SchultzTE	3	4	30	10.0	0	14
Woody MarksRB	4	4	23	5.8	0	11
Foster MoreauTE	2	3	8	4.0	0	7

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Azeez Al-ShaairLB	11	5	0	0	1	1
Reed BlankenshipS	8	5	0	1	1	0
Tommy TogiaiDT	8	1	0	0	0	0
Jake HansenLB	6	3	0	1	2	0
Will Anderson Jr.DE	4	3	3	3	0	3
Kamari LassiterCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Sheldon RankinsDT	4	1	0	0	0	0
Danielle HunterDE	3	3	1	1	1	2
Jalen PitreS	3	1	0	0	1	0
Kamari RamseyS	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ka'imi FairbairnPK	4/4	100.0	53	2/2	14

Tennessee Titans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Cam WardQB	23/36	170	4.7	0	1	4-40	14.3	63.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tony PollardRB	14	52	3.7	14
Kalel MullingsRB	1	3	3.0	3
Cam WardQB	1	2	2.0	2
Tyjae SpearsRB	2	0	0.0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR	6	7	53	8.8	17
Calvin RidleyWR	2	3	33	16.5	23
Chimere DikeWR	3	4	28	9.3	13
Tyjae SpearsRB	9	9	28	3.1	12
Elic AyomanorWR	1	2	17	17.0	17
Carnell TateWR	1	5	6	6.0	6
Daniel BellingerTE	1	2	5	5.0	5
Tony PollardRB	0	1	0	0.0	0
Kylen GransonTE	0	1	0	0.0	0
Gunnar HelmTE	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Tony AdamsS	9	2	0	0	0
Terrell BurgessS	8	5	0	0	1
Cody BartonLB	6	3	0	0	0
Cedric GrayLB	6	2	0.5	0	0
Anthony Hill Jr.LB	5	3	0	0	0
Jeffery SimmonsDT	4	3	0	1	1
Alontae TaylorCB	4	3	0	0	0
Isaiah OliverS	4	2	0	0	0
Micah RobinsonCB	4	2	0	0	0
Jordan Elliott	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Joey SlyePK	1/1	100.0	30	0/0	3

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Texans ball security vs Titans takeaway defense
The Texans' ball security ranks 4th in turnovers per game (0.5 giveaways a game, 4 games) against a Titans takeaway defense ranked 27th (0.5 takeaways a game, 4 games).
4thHOU offense23 spots apart27thTEN defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Titans third-down defense vs Texans third-down offense
The Titans' third-down defense ranks 8th in third-down conversion rate (36.5% allowed, 52 third downs faced) and faces a Texans third-down offense ranked 23rd (35.8%, 53 third downs).
23rdHOU offense15 spots apart8thTEN defense
3Texans dropback offense vs Titans pass defense
The Texans' dropback offense ranks 15th in EPA per dropback (+0.07, 167 dropbacks) against a Titans pass defense ranked 28th (+0.20 allowed, 127 dropbacks faced).
15thHOU offense13 spots apart28thTEN defense

When the Texans have the ballEdge HOU · +13 ranks

HOU dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTEN pass defense

15th+0.07167 dropbacks

HOU +13

+0.20 allowed127 dropbacks faced28th

HOU run gameEPA per rushTEN run defense

30th-0.2283 rushes

TEN +12

-0.07 allowed121 rushes faced18th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Titans have the ballNo big edge

TEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackHOU pass defense

26th-0.10136 dropbacks

+0.12 allowed160 dropbacks faced25th

TEN run gameEPA per rushHOU run defense

16th-0.0580 rushes

-0.11 allowed94 rushes faced11th

Third downEdge TEN · +15 ranks

HOU third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTEN third-down defense

23rd35.8%53 third downs

TEN +15

36.5% allowed52 third downs faced8th

TEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateHOU third-down defense

25th35.4%48 third downs

HOU +9

39.6% allowed53 third downs faced16th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge HOU · +9 ranks

HOU red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTEN red-zone defense

19th53%15 trips

58% allowed12 trips faced13th

TEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateHOU red-zone defense

22nd50%12 trips

HOU +9

58% allowed12 trips faced13th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge HOU · +8 ranks

HOU big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTEN defense against big plays

9th10.4%250 plays

HOU +8

9.7% allowed248 plays faced17th

TEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateHOU defense against big plays

22nd7.9%216 plays

9.8% allowed254 plays faced20th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge TEN · +9 ranks

HOU pass protectionsack rateTEN pass rush

23rd7.2% sacked167 dropbacks

TEN +9

6.3% of dropbacks127 dropbacks faced14th

TEN pass protectionsack rateHOU pass rush

9th4.4% sacked136 dropbacks

8.8% of dropbacks160 dropbacks faced2nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge HOU · +23 ranks

HOU ball securityturnovers per gameTEN takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game4 games

HOU +23

0.5 takeaways a game4 games27th

TEN ball securityturnovers per gameHOU takeaway defense

11th0.8 giveaways a game4 games

TEN +11

0.8 takeaways a game4 games22nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: HOU 4 games, 250 offensive and 254 defensive plays · TEN 4 games, 216 offensive and 248 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR→ Kayshon Boutte

Henry To'oTo'oWLB→ Jadeveon Clowney

Tony PollardRB→ Tyjae Spears

Solomon ThomasRDT→ Jeffery Simmons

Joshua WilliamsLCB→ Alontae Taylor

Cor'Dale FlottRCB→ Micah Robinson

Kevin Winston Jr.FS→ Terrell Burgess

AwayTexans1 next man up · 1 questionable · 2 changes