Falcons 45, Saints 24: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Mon, Oct 5 · Caesars SuperdomeFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	14	10	7	14	45
NO	0	7	3	14	24

Home · 3-5New OrleansSaints24

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

The Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints 45-24 on Mon, Oct 5 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Falcons 3-6, Saints 3-5. M.Penix (ATL) led all players with +10.6 EPA on 21 dropbacks.

Who won Falcons vs Saints?

The Atlanta Falcons won 45-24. By quarter: ATL 14-10-7-14, NO 0-7-3-14.

Who was the best player in Falcons vs Saints?

By expected points added: M.Penix (ATL, +10.6 EPA on 21 dropbacks), C.Olave (NO, +7.2 EPA on 12 targets) and D.London (ATL, +6.9 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Falcons vs Saints?

The biggest swing in win probability (11 points toward the Falcons) came in Q1 at 13:34: Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Falcons 45, Saints 24: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-05-atl-at-no (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Falcons59% success · +0.42 EPA/play

4524

Saints36% success · −0.03 EPA/play

ATL >99% deserveddeserved <1% NO

Falcons earned it: the snaps said Falcons by 18.1, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginATL by 18.1

Real marginATL by 21

Luck pts ATL+4.0

Luck pts NO−2.5

The swingQ1 13:43 · ATL · +15 pts of win probability. 7-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive HoldingNO → helped ATL · Wk 4 Q1 0:56 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4…+5.2 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped NO · Wk 4 Q1 0:48 · 6-N.Folk kicks 60 yards from ATL 35 to NO 5. 38-J.Price to NO 31 for 26 yards (19-C.Blair). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Bowman,…+3.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NO · 4th & 3Kellen Moore chose Field goal at opp 8, Wk 4 Q3 7:40, down 17. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−0.77 EP
2ATL · 4th & 12Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 4 Q1 10:25, up 7. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA145 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewLand Clark16 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: NO by 1.5 · Snaps: ATL by 18.1Falcons covered; the snaps agree

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NO ▲ATL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+11%Q1 13:34 · for ATLBi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
+11%Q1 2:52 · for ATLK.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (L.London).Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.K.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (L.London, C.Henderson). FUMBLES (C.Henderson), RECOVERED by ATL-C.Henderson at NO 22.
+9%Q1 0:44 · for NO(Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep left to C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (X.Watts) [Y.Abdullah].
+8%Q2 11:15 · for ATL(Shotgun) M.Penix pass deep right to D.London to NO 12 for 27 yards (Q.Riley; J.Blackmon).
+8%Q1 0:56 · for ATL(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short right to J.Dotson (K.Boyd).PENALTY on NO-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NO 8 - No Play.

Every drive, on the field

NO attacks →← ATL attacks

Q1 15:00TD3p · 80y · 1:26
Q1 13:34PUNT3p · -8y · 0:58
Q1 12:36PUNT5p · 10y · 2:17
Q1 10:19MISS10p · 53y · 5:16
Q1 5:03PUNT3p · -4y · 2:11
Q1 2:52FUM1p · 2y · 0:05
Q1 2:47TD5p · 22y · 1:59
Q1 0:48TD3p · 54y · 0:51
Q2 14:57TD10p · 65y · 5:58
Q2 8:59PUNT3p · 4y · 1:07
Q2 7:52FG10p · 75y · 4:45
Q2 3:07PUNT8p · 27y · 2:25
Q2 0:42HALF2p · 11y · 0:42
Q3 15:00FG13p · 59y · 7:22
Q3 7:38TD9p · 74y · 5:27
Q3 2:11TD13p · 68y · 4:11
Q4 13:00TD5p · 72y · 3:10
Q4 9:50DOWNS4p · -5y · 1:21
Q4 8:29TD3p · 21y · 1:37
Q4 6:52TD13p · 76y · 5:39
Q4 1:13END2p · -2y · 1:13

Falcons9 drives7scoring drives (6 TD)78%drives ending in pointsOWN 41avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Saints10 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
13:34TouchdownBi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.7–0
Q1
0:48TouchdownBi.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.14–0
Q2
14:57Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.14–7
Q2
8:59TouchdownBr.Robinson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.21–7
Q2
3:07Field goalN.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.24–7
Q3
7:38Field goalD.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.24–10
Q3
2:11TouchdownBr.Robinson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.31–10
Q4
13:00Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.31–17
Q4
9:50TouchdownM.Penix pass deep middle to J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.38–17
Q4
6:52TouchdownBr.Robinson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.45–17
Q4
1:13Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright.45–24

Team stats

ATLvsNO

420Total yards320

215Passing yards270

205Rushing yards50

7.5Yards per play4.6

24First downs22

4-8 · 50%Third down6-15 · 40%

0-0Fourth down3-4

4-5Red zone TDs3-4

15/20Comp / att30/48

5.9Yards per carry2.6

0Turnovers1

1 (−8 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−16 yds)

8 for 70Penalties8 for 49

30:45Possession29:15

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.421-0.073

Dropback EPA+0.507+0.004

Rush EPA+0.366-0.292

Success rate59%36%

Explosive plays93

Plays5469

Who moved the needle

M.PenixDropbacks: 21+10.6

C.OlaveTargets: 12+7.2

D.LondonTargets: 6+6.9

Bi.RobinsonCarries: 19+6.4

Br.RobinsonCarries: 14+5.6

D.VeleTargets: 9+4.0

Cost their side the most

K.MillerCarries: 6-8.2

B.LanceTargets: 5-4.8

K.MillerTargets: 3-1.3

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Michael Penix Jr.QB	15/20	223	11.2	1	0	1-8	80.2	127.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bijan RobinsonRB	19	145	7.6	2	59
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	14	62	4.4	3	11
Michael Penix Jr.QB	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drake LondonWR	5	6	96	19.2	0	37
Jahan DotsonWR	2	3	54	27.0	1	31
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE	3	3	47	15.7	0	28
Zachariah BranchWR	2	2	10	5.0	0	9
Austin HooperTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Bijan RobinsonRB	1	2	2	2.0	0	2
Olamide ZaccheausWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Charlie WoernerTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
C.J. HendersonCB	10	9	0	0	1	0
Harold Perkins Jr.LB	10	7	0.5	0	1	1
Xavier WattsS	8	5	0.5	0	0	1
Cameron ThomasDE	5	2	0	0	1	1
Mike HughesCB	4	3	0	1	1	0
Kendal DanielsLB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Divine DeabloLB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Chris BlairWR	3	2	0	0	0	0
Josh WoodsLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Billy Bowman Jr.CB	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Nick FolkPK	1/1	100.0	29	6/6	9

New Orleans Saints

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Tyler ShoughQB	30/48	286	6.0	1	0	2-16	68.6	85.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Alvin KamaraRB	7	23	3.3	2	5
CJ DonaldsonRB	3	18	6.0	0	9
Kendre MillerRB	6	9	1.5	0	4
Tyler ShoughQB	2	5	2.5	0	3
Barion BrownWR	1	-5	-5.0	0	-5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chris OlaveWR	8	12	116	14.5	0	44
Juwan JohnsonTE	6	8	59	9.8	0	23
Devaughn VeleWR	6	9	54	9.0	1	18
Alvin KamaraRB	5	7	35	7.0	0	17
Kendre MillerRB	2	3	10	5.0	0	7
Bryce LanceWR	1	5	7	7.0	0	7
CJ DonaldsonRB	2	2	5	2.5	0	6
Treyton WelchTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Julian BlackmonS	10	5	0	0	0	0
Tyree WilsonDE	6	4	1	1	0	1
Jonas SankerS	6	4	0	0	0	0
Danny StutsmanLB	5	1	0	0	0	0
Justin ReidS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Chase YoungDE	4	2	0	0	1	0
Quincy RileyCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Pete WernerLB	4	1	0	1	0	0
Fadil DiggsDE	4	1	0	0	1	0
Khristian BoydDT	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Daniel Carlson	1/2	50.0	27	3/3	6

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Falcons run game vs Saints run defense
The Falcons' run game ranks 6th in EPA per rush (+0.04, 98 rushes) against a Saints run defense ranked 26th (-0.00 allowed, 74 rushes faced).
6thATL offense20 spots apart26thNO defense
2Falcons defense against big plays vs Saints big-play offense
The Falcons' defense against big plays ranks 7th in explosive-play rate (7.7% allowed, 183 plays faced) and faces a Saints big-play offense ranked 23rd (8.1%, 222 plays).
23rdNO offense16 spots apart7thATL defense
3Saints pass defense vs Falcons dropback offense
The Saints' pass defense ranks 20th in EPA per dropback (+0.11 allowed, 117 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons dropback offense ranked 32nd (-0.36, 91 dropbacks).
32ndATL offense12 spots apart20thNO defense

When the Falcons have the ballEdge ATL · +20 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNO pass defense

32nd-0.3691 dropbacks

NO +12

+0.11 allowed117 dropbacks faced20th

ATL run gameEPA per rushNO run defense

6th+0.0498 rushes

ATL +20

-0.00 allowed74 rushes faced26th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Saints have the ballNo big edge

NO dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

18th+0.03147 dropbacks

+0.01 allowed136 dropbacks faced14th

NO run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

10th-0.0375 rushes

-0.23 allowed47 rushes faced5th

Third downNo big edge

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNO third-down defense

28th34.3%35 third downs

47.1% allowed34 third downs faced24th

NO third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

5th53.2%47 third downs

36.6% allowed41 third downs faced9th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge ATL · +8 ranks

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNO red-zone defense

4th80%5 trips

ATL +8

57% allowed14 trips faced12th

NO red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

6th69%13 trips

50% allowed12 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge ATL · +16 ranks

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNO defense against big plays

17th9.0%189 plays

8.9% allowed191 plays faced13th

NO big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

23rd8.1%222 plays

ATL +16

7.7% allowed183 plays faced7th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

ATL pass protectionsack rateNO pass rush

25th7.7% sacked91 dropbacks

6.0% of dropbacks117 dropbacks faced20th

NO pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

20th6.8% sacked147 dropbacks

3.7% of dropbacks136 dropbacks faced27th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge NO · +9 ranks

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameNO takeaway defense

31st2.7 giveaways a game3 games

NO +9

0.7 takeaways a game3 games22nd

NO ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

29th2.3 giveaways a game3 games

0.7 takeaways a game3 games22nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: ATL 3 games, 189 offensive and 183 defensive plays · NO 3 games, 222 offensive and 191 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE→ Charlie Woerner

Jake MatthewsLT→ Ryan Neuzil

Corey LevinC→ Michael Jerrell

Maason SmithLDE→ Samson Ebukam

Kendal DanielsLILB→ Harold Perkins Jr.

James Pearce Jr.SLB→ Yasir Abdullah

A.J. Terrell Jr.LCB→ Billy Bowman Jr.

Sydney BrownNB→ Mike Hughes

DeMarcco HellamsSS→ Jessie Bates III

Jordyn TysonWR→ Bryce Lance

Kelvin Banks Jr.LT→ Erik McCoy