Lions 31, Bills 41: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 2 · Thu, Sep 17 · Highmark StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DET	0	10	7	14	31
BUF	14	13	7	7	41

Home · 7-1BuffaloBills41

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Detroit Lions 41-31 on Thu, Sep 17 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY (Week 2, 2026 season). Records after the game: Lions 6-2, Bills 7-1. J.Allen (BUF) led all players with +20.8 EPA on 38 dropbacks.

Who won Lions vs Bills?

The Buffalo Bills won 41-31. By quarter: DET 0-10-7-14, BUF 14-13-7-7.

Who was the best player in Lions vs Bills?

By expected points added: J.Allen (BUF, +20.8 EPA on 38 dropbacks), J.Goff (DET, +18.2 EPA on 44 dropbacks) and A.St. Brown (DET, +10.7 EPA on 13 targets).

What was the turning point of Lions vs Bills?

The biggest swing in win probability (8 points toward the Bills) came in Q1 at 3:42: (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Lions 31, Bills 41: Week 2 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-17-det-at-buf (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 2 issue →

Week 2EarnedGame file →

Lions48% success · +0.22 EPA/play

3141

Bills58% success · +0.41 EPA/play

DET 2% deserveddeserved 98% BUF

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 11.5, a deserved win probability of 98%.

Deserved marginBUF by 11.5

Real marginBUF by 10

Luck pts DET+2.6

Luck pts BUF−2.2

The swingQ1 3:49 · BUF · +9 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive HoldingDET → helped BUF · Wk 2 Q1 12:54 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end ran ob at BUF 44 for 13 yards (45-D.White). PENALTY on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Holding,…+5.8 WP
2Defensive HoldingBUF → helped DET · Wk 2 Q4 12:24 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Williams (21-D.Igbinosun) [9-B.Chubb]. PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun,…+1.8 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA146 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 17 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewRonald Torbert15 accepted flags in this game · 14 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 5.5 · Snaps: BUF by 11.5Bills covered; the snaps agree

31@41

Week 2Changes the winner

If the Lions had recovered that fumble

Lions after the play47%what really happened

Q1 13:48 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 32 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson) [97-A.Hutchinson], recovered by BUF-79-S.Brown at BUF 31.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

BUF ▲DET ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+8%Q1 3:42 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
+5%Q1 12:54 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end ran ob at BUF 44 for 13 yards (D.White).PENALTY on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 44.
+3%Q3 11:40 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to BUF 22 for 18 yards (J.Hancock).
+3%Q1 5:14 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to D.Kincaid to DET 42 for 25 yards (A.Maddox; D.Reed).
+3%Q1 11:48 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right tackle ran ob at DET 38 for 12 yards (D.Barnes).

Every drive, on the field

BUF attacks →← DET attacks

Q1 15:00TD10p · 85y · 5:51
Q1 9:09PUNT3p · -5y · 2:00
Q1 7:09TD8p · 79y · 3:27
Q1 3:42PUNT4p · 4y · 2:45
Q1 0:57TD9p · 57y · 4:09
Q2 11:48TD12p · 70y · 6:45
Q2 5:03TD4p · 68y · 2:11
Q2 2:52PUNT4p · 4y · 1:16
Q2 1:36PUNT5p · 17y · 0:57
Q2 0:39FG8p · 65y · 0:39
Q3 15:00TD11p · 74y · 5:31
Q3 9:29TD15p · 75y · 8:22
Q3 1:07TD11p · 66y · 5:14
Q4 10:53PUNT6p · 15y · 2:28
Q4 8:25PUNT3p · 0y · 0:57
Q4 7:28TD8p · 61y · 4:38
Q4 2:50TD7p · 68y · 1:08
Q4 1:42END4p · 13y · 1:42

Lions9 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position2three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Bills8 drives6scoring drives (6 TD)75%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position0three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:09Touchdown(No Huddle) J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.0–7
Q1
3:42Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.0–14
Q2
11:48TouchdownJ.Allen pass short right to D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.0–21
Q2
5:03Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.7–21
Q2
2:52Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to D.Kincaid for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.7–27
Q2
0:00Field goalJ.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.10–27
Q3
9:29Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.17–27
Q3
1:07TouchdownJ.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.17–34
Q4
10:53TouchdownJ.Goff pass short left to S.LaPorta for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.24–34
Q4
2:50TouchdownJ.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.24–41
Q4
1:42Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep middle to A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Danna]. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.31–41

Team stats

DETvsBUF

355Total yards446

289Passing yards243

66Rushing yards203

5.7Yards per play6.5

24First downs34

4-11 · 36%Third down9-12 · 75%

2-2Fourth down0-0

3-4Red zone TDs5-5

26/38Comp / att20/31

3.3Yards per carry5.6

0Turnovers0

4 (−38 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−5 yds)

10 for 58Penalties5 for 46

26:15Possession33:45

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.232+0.435

Dropback EPA+0.414+0.548

Rush EPA-0.211+0.281

Success rate48%58%

Explosive plays712

Plays6266

Who moved the needle

J.AllenDropbacks: 38+20.8

J.GoffDropbacks: 44+18.2

A.St. BrownTargets: 13+10.7

D.KincaidTargets: 8+7.2

J.GibbsTargets: 8+6.0

K.ColemanTargets: 6+5.9

Cost their side the most

J.GibbsCarries: 16-2.5

J.CookTargets: 3-1.2

J.AllenCarries: 9-0.1

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jared GoffQB	26/38	327	8.6	4	0	4-38	70.9	130.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jahmyr GibbsRB	16	52	3.3	16
Sione VakiRB	1	7	7.0	7
Jared GoffQB	3	7	2.3	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	9	13	142	15.8	2	34
Jahmyr GibbsRB	6	8	61	10.2	1	12
Sam LaPortaTE	6	7	52	8.7	1	18
Jameson WilliamsWR	2	4	33	16.5	0	17
Isaac TeSlaaWR	2	5	26	13.0	0	20
Sione VakiRB	1	1	13	13.0	0	13

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Chuck ClarkS	11	4	0	0	0
Derrick BarnesLB	7	5	1	1	1
Rock Ya-SinCB	6	5	0	0	0
Devin WhiteLB	6	3	0	0	0
D.J. ReedCB	6	2	0	0	0
Jack CampbellLB	6	2	0	0	1
Tyleik WilliamsDT	5	3	0	0	1
Aidan HutchinsonDE	3	2	1	1	2
Christian IzienS	3	2	0	0	0
Avonte MaddoxCB	3	1	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake BatesPK	1/1	100.0	31	4/4	7

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	20/31	248	8.0	3	0	2-5	89.7	121.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	21	135	6.4	1	35
Josh AllenQB	14	69	4.9	2	14
DJ MooreWR	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Dalton KincaidTE	7	8	95	13.6	1	25
Keon ColemanWR	6	6	63	10.5	0	22
Joshua PalmerWR	1	3	43	43.0	1	43
Khalil ShakirWR	3	6	38	12.7	0	16
Dawson KnoxTE	2	2	5	2.5	1	4
James Cook IIIRB	1	3	4	4.0	0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Christian BenfordCB	8	5	0	0	2	0
Dorian WilliamsLB	6	5	0	1	1	0
Cole BishopS	6	5	0	0	0	0
Davison IgbinosunCB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Terrel BernardLB	5	3	0	1	1	0
Jordan HancockCB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Bradley ChubbLB	4	2	1.5	1	0	2
Dee AlfordCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Greg RousseauLB	3	3	2	2	0	4
Damar HamlinS	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	0/0	0.0	0	5/6	5

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Christian MahoganyLG→ Larry Borom

Blake MillerRT→ Ben Bartch

K.J. BrittMLB→ Jack Campbell

Malcolm RodriguezSLB→ Devin White

Roger McCrearyNB→ Rock Ya-Sin

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.RCB→ Avonte Maddox

Brian BranchSS→ Thomas Harper

DJ MooreWR→ Joshua Palmer

Dalton KincaidTE→ Dawson Knox

Alec AndersonLG→ Tylan Grable

T.J. SandersLDE→ Landon Jackson