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The Verdict2026 · NFC East · through Week 9

Commanders logoWashington CommandersThe Verdict

Commanders are 2-5-1; the play says 2.5 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 1-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Dan Quinn kicked away 8 of 12 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 17th of 320.02-5-1 real · 2.5 deserved · 3.2 Pythagorean
Luck points · 2nd of 32+17.1fumble bounces +15.7 · opponents' kicks +1.4
Chicken Index · 7th of 3267%Dan Quinn · 6.9 expected points lost on 47 graded calls
Flags net · 8th of 32+41.3 WP61 flags for 468 yards against · 53 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 8EarnedGame file →
Eagles logoEagles40% success · −0.16 EPA/play
1027
Commanders logoCommanders41% success · +0.05 EPA/play

Commanders earned it: the snaps said Commanders by 11.4, a deserved win probability of 98%.

Deserved marginWSH by 11.4
Real marginWSH by 17
Luck pts PHI+0.1
Luck pts WSH+2.3

The swingQ3 2:59 · PHI · −20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong), RECOVERED by WAS-90-C.Omenihu at WAS 40.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+15.7 ptsKept 5 of 8 own fumbles; won 7 of 8 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+1.4 ptsOpponents made 14 of 18 field goals against an expected 14.5, and 22 of 23 extra points.
Own kicking+0.6 ptsMade 16 of 19 field goals against 15.8 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.07523rd of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-4Our pregame model in Commanders games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Dan Quinn · 47 graded fourth downs · went for it 11×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.9 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1WSH · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 31, Wk 1 Q1 2:49, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.24 EP
  2. 2WSH · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 29, Wk 9 Q3 9:34, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.21 EP
  3. 3WSH · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 42, Wk 3 Q3 13:30, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.89 EP
  4. 4WSH · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 33, Wk 4 Q1 2:43, up 6. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP
  5. 5WSH · 4th & 3Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 47, Wk 9 Q2 10:43, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.68 EP
  6. 6WSH · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Field goal at opp 13, Wk 4 Q1 13:01, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.47 EP
  7. 7WSH · 4th & 4Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 47, Wk 1 Q3 11:20, down 5. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.42 EP
  8. 8WSH · 4th & 5Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 48, Wk 9 Q2 7:24, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.26 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1WSH · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Go for it at own 46, Wk 4 Q2 8:34, up 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2WSH · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Go for it at opp 39, Wk 3 Q4 8:40, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3WSH · 4th & 1Dan Quinn chose Go for it at opp 32, Wk 1 Q2 4:41, down 11. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4WSH · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Go for it at opp 13, Wk 6 Q2 13:08, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 4 · opp 19 · Q1 9:119Field goalField goal2.23–2.69✓good
4th & 3 · own 47 · Q2 10:439PuntGo for it0.27-0.40–−0.68punted
4th & 5 · own 48 · Q2 7:249PuntGo for it-0.12-0.37–−0.26punted
4th & 1 · own 29 · Q3 9:349PuntGo for it0.10-1.11–−1.21punted
4th & 3 · own 27 · Q3 6:189PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.97-1.21–−0.24punted
4th & 6 · opp 23 · Q3 3:299Field goalField goal1.59–2.52✓good
4th & 11 · opp 45 · Q4 8:229PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.31-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 17 · 50 · Q4 2:009Go for itnot graded-0.91-0.32–stopped
4th & 11 · opp 37 · Q1 12:148Field goalField goal0.19-0.121.18✓missed
4th & 3 · own 19 · Q1 9:518PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.49-1.67–−0.18punted
4th & 4 · opp 38 · Q1 0:338Field goalField goal (toss-up)0.96-0.131.03✓good
4th & 1 · own 19 · Q2 1:388Puntnot graded-0.52-1.67–punted
4th & 1 · opp 21 · Q2 0:238Field goalnot graded3.32–2.61good
4th & 21 · own 18 · Q3 6:318PuntPunt-3.14-1.73–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 7 · Q3 1:368Field goalField goal1.76–2.92✓good
4th & 7 · opp 24 · Q4 3:488Field goalnot graded1.39–2.46good
4th & 5 · opp 33 · Q1 8:536Field goalField goal1.08-0.111.70✓good
4th & 15 · own 38 · Q1 1:396PuntPunt-1.59-0.71–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 13 · Q2 13:086Go for itGo for it3.31–2.84✓stopped
4th & 11 · own 18 · Q2 6:346PuntPunt-2.70-1.73–✓punted
4th & 20 · own 39 · Q3 12:096Puntnot graded-1.69-0.67–punted
4th & 5 · opp 31 · Q3 2:506Go for itnot graded1.21-0.111.92converted
4th & 3 · opp 17 · Q4 2:006Go for itnot graded2.64–2.75stopped
4th & 14 · own 36 · Q1 6:005PuntPunt-1.67-0.79–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 7 · Q1 2:465PuntPunt-3.86-2.52–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q2 9:005Field goalField goal1.44–2.90✓good
4th & 10 · own 16 · Q2 3:015PuntPunt-2.77-1.87–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 22 · Q2 1:065Field goalnot graded1.82–2.57good
4th & 14 · own 33 · Q4 5:075PuntPunt-1.87-0.92–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 46 · Q4 0:155Puntnot graded-0.99-0.43–punted
4th & 10 · own 49 · OT 5:395Puntnot graded-0.62-0.35–punted
4th & 2 · opp 13 · Q1 13:014Field goalGo for it3.31–2.84−0.47good
4th & 11 · opp 11 · Q1 6:244Field goalField goal1.17–2.87✓good
4th & 2 · own 33 · Q1 2:434PuntGo for it-0.23-0.92–−0.69punted
4th & 8 · own 27 · Q2 12:454PuntPunt-1.84-1.21–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 46 · Q2 8:344Go for itGo for it1.15-0.43–✓stopped
4th & 6 · own 44 · Q2 1:164Puntnot graded-0.52-0.49–punted
4th & 18 · opp 44 · Q3 4:574PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.56-0.200.02−0.22punted
4th & 8 · own 16 · Q3 1:434PuntPunt-2.59-1.87–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 46 · Q4 8:194Go for itnot graded1.15-0.43–stopped
4th & 2 · opp 40 · Q4 3:254Go for itnot graded1.45-0.150.71converted
4th & 14 · opp 36 · Q4 1:534Go for itnot graded0.09-0.121.32stopped
4th & 4 · own 26 · Q1 11:173PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.30-1.27–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 49 · Q1 3:333PuntPunt-0.69-0.35–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 43 · Q2 11:293PuntPunt-1.06-0.52–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 2 · Q2 1:243Puntnot graded-3.81-2.94–punted
4th & 2 · opp 39 · Q2 0:033Field goalnot graded1.51-0.140.88good
4th & 2 · own 42 · Q3 13:303PuntGo for it0.33-0.56–−0.89punted
4th & 5 · own 31 · Q3 5:113PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.18-1.01–✓punted
4th & 14 · 50 · Q3 1:223PuntPunt-0.79-0.32–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 39 · Q4 8:403Go for itGo for it2.09-0.140.88✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 18 · Q4 4:393Field goalnot graded1.93–2.72good
4th & 3 · own 26 · Q1 8:152PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.04-1.27–−0.23punted
4th & 5 · opp 9 · Q2 13:222Field goalGo for it (toss-up)3.01–2.90−0.12good
4th & 9 · opp 29 · Q3 12:552Field goalField goal0.86–2.11✓good
4th & 16 · opp 33 · Q3 1:572Field goalnot graded0.21-0.111.70missed
4th & 7 · opp 37 · Q1 11:291Field goalField goal0.54-0.121.18✓good
4th & 10 · own 6 · Q1 7:421PuntPunt-3.50-2.60–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 31 · Q1 2:491PuntGo for it0.23-1.01–−1.24punted
4th & 9 · own 33 · Q2 13:081PuntPunt-1.55-0.92–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 19 · Q2 8:571PuntPunt-2.97-1.67–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 32 · Q2 4:411Go for itGo for it2.55-0.111.82✓converted
4th & 4 · own 47 · Q3 11:201PuntGo for it0.02-0.40–−0.42punted
4th & 9 · opp 36 · Q3 6:511Field goalField goal0.40-0.121.32✓missed
4th & 6 · own 15 · Q3 3:521PuntPunt-2.41-1.93–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 10 · Q4 2:041Go for itnot graded3.54–2.89converted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Face Mask on WAS in Week 5, worth +9 points of win probability to NYG.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Face MaskWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 9:56 · (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on…+8.9 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessWAS → helped IND · Wk 4 Q2 5:13 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary…+8.4 WP
  3. 3Intentional GroundingWAS → helped SF · Wk 6 Q4 0:21 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [94-R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards,…+7.1 WP
  4. 4Delay of GameWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 5:43 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play.+6.2 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 Q3 1:46 · (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 2-A.Robertson at WAS 1. 2-A.Robertson to WAS 26…+5.4 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
False Start178527.3
Unnecessary Roughness45121.2
Face Mask34517.0
Offensive Holding87916.6
Delay of Game52512.8
Defensive Pass Interference31511.4
Intentional Grounding1127.1
Defensive Holding3156.3

Flags drawn

  1. 1Illegal ContactSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 3:01 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis,…+18.8 WP
  2. 2Fair Catch InterferenceSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 1:00 · 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch…+12.0 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped WAS · Wk 3 Q4 10:35 · (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley,…+9.6 WP
  4. 4Illegal FormationSEA → helped WAS · Wk 3 Q4 4:24 · (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update:…+7.1 WP
  5. 5Offensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped WAS · Wk 9 Q3 2:06 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 8-T.Atwell pushed ob at WAS 27 for 8 yards (35-P.Butler). PENALTY on…+7.0 WP

Garbage Time Tax

17.9% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 22nd most of 32

Bottom lineStefon Diggs: 114 of 303 yards (38%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Jayden DanielsWAS · passing · 1,249 yds17%
Stefon DiggsWAS · receiving · 303 yds38%
Antonio WilliamsWAS · receiving · 284 yds22%

Our picks on the Commanders

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Commanders 35% at home against rams. 20-13 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Commanders 64% at home against eagles. 10-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Commanders 16% at 49ers. 17-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Commanders 46% at home against giants. 27-27 final, a tie. (rebuilt)–
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Commanders 59% at home against colts. 30-13 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Commanders 30% at home against seahawks. 31-33 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Commanders 53% at cowboys. 20-37 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Washington Commanders verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/commanders/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.