AFC East · 2026 season

New EnglandPatriots

5-4record2ndin East#7AFC seed+4point diffL1streak

LionsSun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ETDET -2.5 · O/U 51.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 5 games before (weeks 1-5)

Biggest improvementRun defenseEPA per rush allowed30th→6th

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.22 EPA per rush (107 rushes), 6th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: +0.02 EPA per rush (105 rushes), 30th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemPass defenseEPA per dropback allowed6th→31st

Over the last 4 games the pass defense has allowed +0.35 EPA per dropback (143 dropbacks), 31st among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 5 games before: -0.02 EPA per dropback (180 dropbacks), 6th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftEfton Chism, WRoffensive snap share33%→66%

Efton Chism has played 66% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, up from 33% in the 5 games before. On the field in 4 of 4 and 4 of 5; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The New England Patriots are 5-4 in the 2026 season, 2nd in the AFC East and the No. 7 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of +4. On offense they rank 10th in the league in EPA per play (+0.041); on defense they rank 23rd (+0.043 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 53% chance to make the playoffs and 0.6% to win the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots play next on the road at the Detroit Lions on Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the New England Patriots record?

5-4, 2nd in the AFC East. Home 3-1, road 2-3, division 3-0, conference 5-1, current streak L1. Points: 211 scored, 207 allowed.

Who do the New England Patriots play next?

The New England Patriots play next on the road at the Detroit Lions on Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the New England Patriots' playoff chances?

53% to make the playoffs, 6% to win the AFC East, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 1.7% to win the AFC and 0.6% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 9.1-7.9).

Who is the New England Patriots starting quarterback?

Drake Maye is first on the Patriots depth chart at quarterback, with Tommy DeVito behind.

Who is injured for the New England Patriots?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: A.J. Brown (WR, out, knee), Charles Woods (CB, out, hamstring), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, out, illness), Ben Brown (C, doubtful, knee) and Greg Van Roten (G, injured reserve, hamstring). Questionable: Brenden Schooler (S, questionable, hamstring), Carlton Davis III (CB, questionable, knee), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, questionable, knee) and Will Campbell (OT, questionable, knee).

How good is the New England Patriots offense and defense?

Offense: 10th in EPA per play (+0.041), 10th on dropbacks, 21st on runs, success rate 45.5%. Defense: 23rd in EPA allowed (+0.043), 24th against the pass, 13th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “New England Patriots 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/patriots (updated 2026-11-10).

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From the Patriots Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeFour Patriots turnovers and a 49-yard bomb decided it before Gillette settledDrake Maye threw three interceptions, and Green Bay scored on eight of 14 drives in a 45-27 Week 9 win over New England.Nov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportPackers rank 32nd in rushing offense as they arrive at GilletteNov 7, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Patriots, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record5-4

Deserved4.6wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+0.4 luck wins · 9th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 18th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 9 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Patriots would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games3-2decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index36%21st most timid of 28

Flags, net−8win prob. points · 17th

Bounce & kick luck−3.3points · −0.4 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 17.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNALeast no-huddle rate, most deep shots in the leagueClosest twin: Jets (70%)Clock IQ25th of 32 at managing the clockMike Vrabel · 4 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real75-4

Deserved74.6-4.4

#7 seed for real, #7 seed deservedSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−1.4The market has them about rightPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 3-5-1 against the spread Sliding Doors3losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped83 points of win probability lost to those plays, 111 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 11Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsPatriots5-4 · proj 9.1-7.9 · 7th in AFC53%▼ 20 pts

Win it all 0.6% · likeliest seed No. 7 (23%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 22 hardest of 32 · avg opp -0.3 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Patriots stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.04110th

Dropback EPA+0.14910th

Rush EPA-0.12321st

Success rate45.5%10th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.04323rd

Pass EPA allowed+0.14024th

Rush EPA allowed-0.10513th

Success allowed43.7%18th

Pass rate over expected: -0.9% (13th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 547 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 18.5 (13th most) · RB 18.9 (29th most) · WR 40.5 (2nd most) · TE 11.2 (24th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 319 dropbacksD.Maye+0.156EPA / dropback+6.7CPOE9.2aDOT51%success

Quarterback · 10 dropbacksT.DeVito-0.128EPA / dropback-6.3CPOE11.1aDOT30%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
R.Stevenson RB	102	399	2	-0.05	39%
T.Henderson RB	52	203	1	-0.25	33%
C.Kiner RB	50	244	1	-0.15	40%
D.Maye QB	8	10	2	-0.00	38%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
D.Douglas WR	46	17%	20%	10.9	434	4	+0.54
H.Henry TE	37	14%	9%	6.3	361	2	+0.60
R.Stevenson RB	32	12%	1%	1.2	252	2	+0.13
E.Raridon TE	26	10%	8%	7.5	225	2	+0.12
M.Hollins WR	26	10%	15%	14.7	245	1	+0.33
E.Chism WR	25	9%	8%	7.7	218	2	+0.36
R.Doubs WR	24	9%	17%	17.6	261	3	+0.52
A.Brown WR	20	8%	11%	13.3	101	0	-0.23

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

38RBStevenson Henderson ·

DefenseBase 3-4 D

31FSByard Brown

7LCBDavis III Woods ·

90LDEBarmore Farmer

53LILBElliss Muasau

25NBJones

94NTDurden

0RCBGonzalez Canada

97RDEWilliams Jones

14RILBSpillane Hunter

5SLBJones Jacas

4SSWoodson Reed

91WLBPonder Landry III

HolderMitch Wishnowsky Kick ReturnerKyle Williams Long SnapperJulian Ashby PunterMitch Wishnowsky Place KickerAndy Borregales Punt ReturnerMarcus Jones

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Jared WilsonOL	100	100	81	100	100	100	100	100	100
Matt PryorOL						68	100	100	100
Drake MayeQB	100	100	81	100	100	100	100	100	81
Morgan MosesT	100	93	68	100	100	13	100	100	81
Kyle WilliamsWR	17	20	35	25	36	37	39	83	78
Will CampbellT	100	100	100	100	37	100	100	100	71
DeMario DouglasWR	62	47	59	46	49	59	65	65	68
Mack HollinsWR	70	71	76	41					68
Rhamondre StevensonRB	85	36	52	66	71	60	69	77	60
Eli RaridonTE	54	20		58	57	57	54	92	57
Efton ChismWR		18	25	45	76	62	63	88	51
Walter RouseOL			65			21	100	43	51
Hunter HenryTE	76	91	70	64	64	76	76	13	49
Ben BrownC			19	100	100	79		57	49

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Robert SpillaneLB	100	100	95	100	83	100	100	100	92
Christian EllissLB	98	100	92	100	83	100	100	100	92
Kevin ByardS	100	100	95	100	83	100	94	100	92
Craig WoodsonS	100	66		100	83	100	100	100	92
Christian GonzalezCB	100	100	84			100	100	100	92
Marcus JonesCB	48	99	58	100	83	97	97	62	77
Milton WilliamsDT	66	63	66	78	70	74	59	68	64
Gabe JacasLB	38	70	79	42	65	50	52	29	62
Elijah PonderLB	78	77	82	69	60	77	83	83	61
Carlton DavisCB	98		87	100				97	53
Cory DurdenDT	56	49	52	58	27	47	62	40	52
Dre'Mont JonesLB	84	26		75	57	73	64	65	47
Christian BarmoreDT	60	51	45		45	40	51	55	39
Jaylen ReedS		40	84		37	15	7	20	35