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InjuryDohnte Meyers: Active → Clearedjust nowPro Football RumorsFalcons To Sign Jake Moody Off Ravens’ Practice Squad, Release Nick FolkPro Football RumorsBroncos TE Evan Engram Generating Trade Interest49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoArizona CardinalsYou've Got Mail: Banged Up But Battling ForwardInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful18 min agoPro Football RumorsPatriots WR A.J. Brown Could Miss Week 10 With Knee IssueBaltimore RavensJesse Minter Could Shake Up Ravens DefenseInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoESPNBengals trade for Eagles LB Arnold Ebiketie, sources saySaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score45 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out51 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score55 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 · AFC North · through Week 9

Steelers logoPittsburgh SteelersThe Verdict

Steelers are 6-2; the play says 5.0 wins. That record is running 1.0 wins ahead of how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes. They are 4-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Mike McCarthy kicked away 4 of 9 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 5th of 32+1.06-2 real · 5.0 deserved · 5.0 Pythagorean
Luck points · 8th of 32+6.8fumble bounces +8.3 · opponents' kicks −1.5
Chicken Index · 19th of 3244%Mike McCarthy · 2.8 expected points lost on 40 graded calls
Flags net · 1st of 32+96.4 WP47 flags for 414 yards against · 62 drawn

Every game, judged

Lucky 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 8 games went against the play. The biggest: CIN @ PIT, where the Bengals lost with a 76% deserved win probability.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 8EarnedGame file →
Browns logoBrowns43% success · −0.22 EPA/play
627
Steelers logoSteelers47% success · +0.02 EPA/play

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 12.1, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginPIT by 12.1
Real marginPIT by 21
Luck pts CLE−6.5
Luck pts PIT+7.1

The swingQ1 10:41 · CLE · −12 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 45 for -5 yards (sack split by 6-P.Queen and 97-C.Heyward). FUMBLES (6-P.Queen) [6-P.Queen], touched at CLE 45, RECOVERED by PIT-95-K.Benton at CLE 45. The fumble was assisted by…

Week 7EarnedGame file →
Steelers logoSteelers46% success · +0.12 EPA/play
1610
Saints logoSaints42% success · +0.02 EPA/play

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 4.2, a deserved win probability of 78%.

Deserved marginPIT by 4.2
Real marginPIT by 6
Luck pts PIT+1.9
Luck pts NO−1.0

The swingQ2 8:34 · PIT · +21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf to NO 4 for 51 yards (7-J.Sanker).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games4-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+8.3 ptsKept 4 of 6 own fumbles; won 5 of 8 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−1.5 ptsOpponents made 20 of 24 field goals against an expected 19.7, and 12 of 12 extra points.
Own kicking−2.6 ptsMade 18 of 23 field goals against 18.9 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.05010th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-3Our pregame model in Steelers games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Mike McCarthy · 40 graded fourth downs · went for it 6×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 2.6 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1PIT · 4th & 2Mike McCarthy chose Punt at own 32, Wk 6 Q2 13:15, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP
  2. 2PIT · 4th & 3Mike McCarthy chose Punt at own 44, Wk 2 Q3 2:22, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.58 EP
  3. 3PIT · 4th & 8Mike McCarthy chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 6 Q1 11:56, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
  4. 4PIT · 4th & 3Mike McCarthy chose Punt at own 39, Wk 1 Q3 0:13, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.45 EP
  5. 5PIT · 4th & 2Mike McCarthy chose Field goal at opp 2, Wk 8 Q2 14:08, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.34 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1PIT · 4th & 1Mike McCarthy chose Go for it at own 49, Wk 5 Q3 7:54, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2PIT · 4th & 1Mike McCarthy chose Go for it at own 39, Wk 2 Q2 12:12, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3PIT · 4th & 3Mike McCarthy chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 1 Q3 4:46, up 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4PIT · 4th & 1Mike McCarthy chose Go for it at opp 22, Wk 5 Q4 7:56, up 2. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 7 · opp 39 · Q1 11:198Field goalField goal0.41-0.140.88✓missed
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 14:088Field goalGo for it3.29–2.95−0.34good
4th & 19 · opp 19 · Q2 3:318Field goalField goal0.37–2.69✓good
4th & 5 · own 49 · Q3 12:378Puntnot graded-0.06-0.35–punted
4th & 7 · own 8 · Q4 11:288Puntnot graded-3.05-2.44–punted
4th & 2 · opp 47 · Q4 6:578Puntnot graded1.01-0.26-0.53punted
4th & 20 · own 11 · Q4 1:568Puntnot graded-3.62-2.21–punted
4th & 5 · opp 10 · Q1 10:547Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.98–2.89−0.09good
4th & 8 · own 47 · Q2 13:247PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.57-0.40–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 29 · Q2 0:037Field goalnot graded0.78–2.11good
4th & 16 · opp 20 · Q3 0:187Field goalField goal1.22–2.65✓good
4th & 12 · own 40 · Q4 7:157PuntPunt-1.31-0.63–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 42 · Q1 11:566PuntField goal0.11-0.170.38−0.55punted
4th & 3 · opp 42 · Q1 3:466Go for itGo for it0.96-0.170.38✓stopped
4th & 2 · own 32 · Q2 13:156PuntGo for it-0.29-0.96–−0.67punted
4th & 3 · opp 30 · Q2 7:156Field goalField goal1.74-0.112.02✓missed
4th & 23 · own 22 · Q2 2:006Puntnot graded-2.90-1.49–punted
4th & 8 · own 33 · Q3 14:186PuntPunt-1.45-0.92–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 37 · Q3 3:266Puntnot graded-0.96-0.75–punted
4th & 19 · opp 21 · Q4 8:116Field goalField goal1.00–2.61✓good
4th & 13 · opp 40 · Q4 2:006Field goalnot graded-0.11-0.150.71good
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q4 1:236Field goalnot graded4.12–2.95good
4th & 25 · own 20 · Q1 12:285PuntPunt-3.09-1.61–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 37 · Q2 6:105PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.80-0.75–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 30 · Q2 0:255Field goalnot graded2.10-0.112.02good
4th & 1 · own 49 · Q3 7:545Go for itGo for it1.33-0.35–✓converted
4th & 20 · own 10 · Q3 1:235PuntPunt-3.69-2.29–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 22 · Q4 7:565Go for itGo for it3.25–2.57✓converted
4th & 7 · opp 36 · Q4 3:475Field goalnot graded0.60-0.121.32good
4th & 5 · own 28 · Q2 10:464PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.38-1.16–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 30 · Q2 5:264Field goalField goal0.71-0.112.02✓missed
4th & 10 · opp 13 · Q2 0:124Field goalnot graded2.03–2.84good
4th & 10 · own 35 · Q3 13:344PuntPunt-1.50-0.83–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 45 · Q3 8:504PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.70-0.46–✓punted
4th & 25 · opp 45 · Q3 1:214Puntnot graded-0.79-0.22-0.16punted
4th & 5 · own 37 · Q4 5:404Puntnot graded-0.80-0.75–punted
4th & 5 · opp 25 · Q2 7:103Field goalField goal1.61–2.40✓good
4th & 10 · own 36 · Q4 11:043PuntPunt-1.44-0.79–✓punted
4th & 14 · opp 18 · Q4 8:483Field goalField goal1.45–2.72✓good
4th & 15 · opp 15 · Q4 2:183Field goalnot graded0.74–2.80good
4th & 7 · own 33 · Q1 13:312PuntPunt-1.35-0.92–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 20 · Q1 10:312PuntPunt-2.07-1.61–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 39 · Q1 4:152Field goalField goal0.54-0.140.88✓missed
4th & 1 · own 39 · Q2 12:122Go for itGo for it0.72-0.67–✓converted
4th & 43 · own 42 · Q2 7:352PuntPunt-1.80-0.56–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 45 · Q2 1:562Puntnot graded-0.16-0.22-0.16punted
4th & 6 · own 42 · Q3 9:122PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.65-0.56–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 44 · Q3 2:222PuntGo for it0.09-0.49–−0.58punted
4th & 16 · own 21 · Q4 12:122Puntnot graded-2.76-1.55–punted
4th & 2 · own 29 · Q4 2:092Puntnot graded-0.48-1.11–punted
4th & 6 · own 42 · Q1 13:581PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.65-0.56–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 25 · Q1 8:341Field goalField goal1.12–2.40✓good
4th & 5 · opp 10 · Q2 12:311Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.98–2.89−0.09good
4th & 20 · own 4 · Q2 6:121PuntPunt-4.16-2.77–✓punted
4th & 13 · opp 44 · Q2 1:061Go for itnot graded-0.36-0.200.02stopped
4th & 6 · own 39 · Q3 9:311PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.84-0.67–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 45 · Q3 4:461Go for itGo for it0.77-0.22-0.16✓stopped
4th & 3 · own 39 · Q3 0:131PuntGo for it-0.22-0.67–−0.45punted
4th & 13 · opp 38 · Q4 7:041Field goalField goal0.02-0.131.03✓missed

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on PIT in Week 1, worth +7 points of win probability to ATL.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessPIT → helped ATL · Wk 1 Q3 8:14 · 13-C.Rush pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 41 for 21 yards (22-A.Samuel). PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Unnecessary…+7.1 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserPIT → helped CLE · Wk 8 Q1 13:37 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Concepcion. CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on…+7.0 WP
  3. 3Defensive HoldingPIT → helped ATL · Wk 1 Q3 12:08 · (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to PIT 33 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen). PENALTY on PIT-94-Y.Black, Defensive Holding, 5 yards,…+6.2 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferencePIT → helped TB · Wk 6 Q2 15:00 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (23-D.Everette). PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Everette, Defensive Pass…+5.8 WP
  5. 5Defensive HoldingPIT → helped CLE · Wk 4 Q4 8:45 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to PIT 39 for 21 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Defensive…+5.2 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Holding42011.5
Roughing the Passer2308.4
Offensive Holding11978.1
Offensive Pass Interference2207.6
Defensive Offside5246.0
Defensive Pass Interference1225.8
Delay of Game3143.8
Face Mask2233.4

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceTB → helped PIT · Wk 6 Q4 3:38 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12…+15.4 WP
  2. 2Roughing the KickerCIN → helped PIT · Wk 3 Q3 6:48 · 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. PENALTY on CIN-52-C.Johnson, Roughing the…+14.5 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped PIT · Wk 1 Q2 14:24 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on ATL-24-Aj.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 37…+14.4 WP
  4. 4Roughing the PasserCLE → helped PIT · Wk 4 Q1 5:49 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to CLE 35 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing…+12.3 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceCLE → helped PIT · Wk 4 Q4 1:51 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren,…+10.7 WP

Garbage Time Tax

15.5% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 26th most of 32

Bottom lineDarnell Washington: 94 of 254 yards (37%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Aaron RodgersPIT · passing · 1,871 yds18%
Jaylen WarrenPIT · rushing · 704 yds15%
DK MetcalfPIT · receiving · 378 yds28%
Jaylen WarrenPIT · receiving · 294 yds13%
Germie BernardPIT · receiving · 284 yds13%
Darnell WashingtonPIT · receiving · 254 yds37%

Our picks on the Steelers

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 8We gave the Steelers 59% at home against browns. 6-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 7We gave the Steelers 62% at saints. 16-10 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Steelers 48% at buccaneers. 26-19 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Steelers 54% at home against colts. 22-34 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Steelers 44% at browns. 24-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Steelers 33% at home against bengals. 27-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Steelers 53% at patriots. 3-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Pittsburgh Steelers verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/steelers/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.