Chiefs 30, Raiders 27: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Allegiant StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
KC	7	3	0	20	30
LV	7	6	0	14	27

Home · 4-5Las VegasRaiders27

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 7:44 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders 30-27 on Sun, Oct 4 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Chiefs 6-2, Raiders 4-5. K.Cousins (LV) led all players with +9.8 EPA on 50 dropbacks.

Who won Chiefs vs Raiders?

The Kansas City Chiefs won 30-27. By quarter: KC 7-3-0-20, LV 7-6-0-14.

Who was the best player in Chiefs vs Raiders?

By expected points added: K.Cousins (LV, +9.8 EPA on 50 dropbacks), T.Thornton (KC, +9.1 EPA on 8 targets) and B.Bowers (LV, +5.0 EPA on 11 targets).

What was the turning point of Chiefs vs Raiders?

The biggest swing in win probability (28 points toward the Chiefs) came in Q4 at 3:35: (Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Chiefs 30, Raiders 27: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-kc-at-lv (updated 2026-11-12).

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The Verdict

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Chiefs43% success · +0.09 EPA/play

3027

Raiders49% success · +0.05 EPA/play

KC 54% deserveddeserved 46% LV

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 0.6, a deserved win probability of 54%.

Deserved marginKC by 0.6

Real marginKC by 3

Luck pts KC0.0

Luck pts LV−2.1

The swingQ4 3:35 · KC · +35 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-7-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped KC · Wk 4 Q4 3:35 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the…+34.9 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessKC → helped LV · Wk 4 Q2 5:30 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 9-J.Nailor. LV-9-J.Nailor was injured during the play. PENALTY on…+4.8 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1KC · 4th & 3Andy Reid chose Punt at opp 45, Wk 4 Q2 11:28, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.99 EP
2KC · 4th & 9Andy Reid chose Go for it at own 30, Wk 4 Q1 13:21, tied. Model: Punt (lean). Result: converted.−0.68 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA159 plays, one strand3 lead changes · 14 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Rogers14 accepted flags in this game · 12 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: KC by 4.5 · Snaps: KC by 0.6Raiders covered; the snaps agree

30@27

Week 4

If the Raiders had recovered that fumble

Raiders after the play11%what really happened

Q4 1:35 52-C.Humphrey to KC 43 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at KC 38. 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy (3-T.Johnson).

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

LV ▲KC ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+28%Q4 3:35 · for KC(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5.
+18%Q3 0:30 · for KCK.Walker right guard pushed ob at LV 8 for 76 yards (T.Johnson).
+14%Q4 0:25 · for LV(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep middle to T.Tucker to KC 49 for 23 yards (C.Conner).
+13%Q4 3:21 · for KCH.Butker kicks 59 yards from KC 35 to LV 6. D.Young to LV 21 for 15 yards (X.Nwankpa, J.Bassa). FUMBLES (J.Bassa), RECOVERED by KC-J.Cochrane at LV 22.
+12%Q4 4:53 · for LVM.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.

Every drive, on the field

LV attacks →← KC attacks

Q1 15:00DOWNS8p · 22y · 4:34
Q1 10:26TD4p · 50y · 2:16
Q1 8:10TD10p · 69y · 5:47
Q1 2:23PUNT4p · 11y · 2:23
Q2 15:00PUNT7p · 41y · 3:41
Q2 11:19FG15p · 75y · 8:00
Q2 3:19FG10p · 70y · 1:57
Q2 1:22FG8p · 41y · 1:22
Q3 15:00DOWNS7p · 49y · 3:28
Q3 11:32PUNT6p · 15y · 2:54
Q3 8:38PUNT7p · 23y · 4:05
Q3 4:33PUNT3p · 3y · 0:58
Q3 3:35PUNT6p · 16y · 3:05
Q3 0:30TD3p · 84y · 0:40
Q4 14:50FG7p · 19y · 3:38
Q4 11:12PUNT3p · 5y · 1:36
Q4 9:36FG8p · 60y · 4:43
Q4 4:53TD4p · 65y · 1:32
Q4 3:21FUM0p · 0y · 0:11
Q4 3:10TD1p · 22y · 0:08
Q4 3:02TD5p · 65y · 1:16
Q4 1:46PUNT3p · 2y · 0:30
Q4 1:16INT11p · 50y · 1:15
Q4 0:01END1p · -1y · 0:01

Chiefs11 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Raiders12 drives6scoring drives (2 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 24avg starting field position0three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:10TouchdownK.Cousins pass deep left to I.Thomas for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.0–7
Q1
2:23Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–7
Q2
3:19Field goalM.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.7–10
Q2
1:22Field goalH.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.10–10
Q2
0:00Field goalM.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.10–13
Q4
14:50Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short left to T.Thornton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.17–13
Q4
11:12Field goalM.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.17–16
Q4
4:53Field goalM.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.17–19
Q4
3:21TouchdownK.Walker up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. P.Mahomes pass to K.Walker is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.23–19
Q4
3:02TouchdownK.Walker right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.30–19
Q4
1:46Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep right to B.Bowers for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. K.Cousins pass to C.White is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.30–27

Team stats

KCvsLV

399Total yards437

210Passing yards365

189Rushing yards72

6.9Yards per play5.6

18First downs28

5-13 · 38%Third down5-14 · 36%

1-2Fourth down2-3

3-4Red zone TDs0-2

15/30Comp / att31/52

7.3Yards per carry2.8

0Turnovers2

2 (−15 yds)Sacks allowed0

8 for 59Penalties6 for 30

24:18Possession35:42

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.130+0.048

Dropback EPA+0.065+0.196

Rush EPA+0.223-0.237

Success rate43%49%

Explosive plays88

Plays5876

Who moved the needle

K.CousinsDropbacks: 50+9.8

T.ThorntonTargets: 8+9.1

B.BowersTargets: 11+5.0

K.WalkerCarries: 22+3.7

C.WhiteTargets: 5+3.7

X.WorthyTargets: 7+3.7

Cost their side the most

M.WashingtonCarries: 9-4.1

A.JeantyCarries: 15-2.9

T.TuckerTargets: 8-1.6

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Patrick MahomesQB	15/30	225	7.5	2	0	2-15	54.1	97.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	22	177	8.0	2	76
Matt AraizaP	1	12	12.0	0	12
Patrick MahomesQB	2	0	0.0	0	1
Khyiris TongaDT	1	0	0.0	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tyquan ThorntonWR	5	8	111	22.2	2	55
Xavier WorthyWR	4	7	70	17.5	0	41
Noah GrayTE	2	3	17	8.5	0	11
Travis KelceTE	2	4	15	7.5	0	10
Emmett JohnsonRB	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	1	1	2	2.0	0	2
Cyrus AllenWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen RoyalsWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Mansoor DelaneCB	10	7	1	1	0
Nick BoltonLB	9	4	0	0	0
Drue TranquillLB	7	5	2	1	1
L'Jarius SneedCB	7	4	0	1	0
Chamarri ConnerS	6	3	0	1	0
George KarlaftisDE	5	2	1	1	6
Jack CochraneLB	4	2	0	0	0
Nohl WilliamsCB	4	2	0	1	0
Kristian FultonCB	4	1	1	0	0
Xavier NwankpaS	3	3	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison ButkerPK	1/1	100.0	28	3/3	6

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kirk CousinsQB	31/52	365	7.0	2	1	0-0	68.9	85.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Ashton JeantyRB	15	58	3.9	19
Mike Washington Jr.RB	9	18	2.0	11
Connor HeywardFB	2	-4	-2.0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Brock BowersTE	6	11	86	14.3	1	21
Michael MayerTE	8	10	82	10.3	0	17
Ashton JeantyRB	6	8	68	11.3	0	28
Tre TuckerWR	4	8	44	11.0	0	23
Cody WhiteWR	2	4	36	18.0	0	27
Ian ThomasTE	2	2	32	16.0	1	27
Connor HeywardFB	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Dareke YoungWR	1	2	9	9.0	0	9
Mike Washington Jr.RB	1	2	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Hezekiah MassesCB	7	3	0	0	2	0
Quay WalkerLB	6	4	1	1	0	1
Jeremy ChinnS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Eric StokesCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Nakobe DeanLB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Adam ButlerDT	4	1	0.5	1	0	1
Thomas Booker IVDT	3	3	0	0	0	0
Folorunso FatukasiDT	3	1	0	0	0	0
Tonka HemingwayDT	3	1	0	0	1	1
Maxx CrosbyDE	3	0	0.5	0	0	5

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Matt GayPK	4/4	100.0	48	1/1	13

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Chiefs defense against big plays vs Raiders big-play offense
The Chiefs' defense against big plays ranks 8th in explosive-play rate (8.0% allowed, 176 plays faced) and faces a Raiders big-play offense ranked 28th (7.1%, 184 plays).
28thLV offense20 spots apart8thKC defense
2Raiders pass protection vs Chiefs pass rush
The Raiders' pass protection ranks 9th in sack rate (4.9% sacked, 102 dropbacks) against a Chiefs pass rush ranked 26th (3.7% of dropbacks, 108 dropbacks faced).
9thLV offense17 spots apart26thKC defense
3Chiefs red-zone offense vs Raiders red-zone defense
The Chiefs' red-zone offense ranks 14th in red-zone touchdown rate (60%, 15 trips) against a Raiders red-zone defense ranked 28th (78% allowed, 9 trips faced).
14thKC offense14 spots apart28thLV defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Chiefs have the ballNo big edge

KC dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLV pass defense

7th+0.25109 dropbacks

-0.12 allowed113 dropbacks faced1st

KC run gameEPA per rushLV run defense

1st+0.1082 rushes

-0.27 allowed71 rushes faced4th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Raiders have the ballEdge KC · +10 ranks

LV dropback offenseEPA per dropbackKC pass defense

12th+0.15102 dropbacks

-0.10 allowed108 dropbacks faced5th

LV run gameEPA per rushKC run defense

25th-0.2082 rushes

KC +10

-0.08 allowed68 rushes faced15th

Third downEdge KC · +10 ranks

KC third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLV third-down defense

7th47.2%36 third downs

KC +10

41.0% allowed39 third downs faced17th

LV third-down offensethird-down conversion rateKC third-down defense

10th45.9%37 third downs

40.0% allowed40 third downs faced13th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge KC · +14 ranks

KC red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLV red-zone defense

14th60%15 trips

KC +14

78% allowed9 trips faced28th

LV red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateKC red-zone defense

16th57%14 trips

57% allowed7 trips faced12th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge KC · +20 ranks

KC big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLV defense against big plays

5th11.5%191 plays

8.2% allowed184 plays faced9th

LV big-play offenseexplosive-play rateKC defense against big plays

28th7.1%184 plays

KC +20

8.0% allowed176 plays faced8th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LV · +17 ranks

KC pass protectionsack rateLV pass rush

5th3.7% sacked109 dropbacks

8.8% of dropbacks113 dropbacks faced3rd

LV pass protectionsack rateKC pass rush

9th4.9% sacked102 dropbacks

LV +17

3.7% of dropbacks108 dropbacks faced26th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge KC · +10 ranks

KC ball securityturnovers per gameLV takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game3 games

3.0 takeaways a game3 games1st

LV ball securityturnovers per gameKC takeaway defense

16th1.0 giveaways a game3 games

KC +10

1.7 takeaways a game3 games6th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: KC 3 games, 191 offensive and 176 defensive plays · LV 3 games, 184 offensive and 184 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Ben VanSumerenFB→ Emmett Johnson

Rashee RiceWR→ Jalen Royals

Josh DownsWR→ Tyquan Thornton

Kingsley SuamataiaLG→ Mike Caliendo

Khyiris TongaRDT→ R Mason Thomas

Jeffrey BassaSLB→ Ashton Gillotte

Jadon CanadyNB→ Mansoor Delane

Kristian FultonRCB→ L'Jarius Sneed

Fernando MendozaQB→ Kirk Cousins

Jack BechWR→ Dareke Young

Trey Zuhn IIIRG→ Caleb Rogers