AFC East · 2026 season

BuffaloBills

7-1record1stin East#1AFC seed+69point diffW4streak

JetsSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETBUF -8.5 · O/U 50.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementDefenseEPA per play allowed28th→5th

Over the last 4 games the defense has allowed -0.14 EPA per play (233 plays), 5th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: +0.11 EPA per play (271 plays), 28th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemRun gameEPA per rush3rd→10th

Over the last 4 games the run game has posted -0.05 EPA per rush (130 rushes), 10th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: +0.08 EPA per rush (97 rushes), 3rd.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftSpencer Brown, Toffensive snap share100%→31%

Spencer Brown has played 31% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 100% in the 4 games before. On the field in 2 of 4 and 4 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:19 AM ET

The Buffalo Bills are 7-1 in the 2026 season, 1st in the AFC East and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with a point differential of +69. On offense they rank 4th in the league in EPA per play (+0.140); on defense they rank 13th (-0.010 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 99% chance to make the playoffs and 11.1% to win the Super Bowl. The Buffalo Bills play next on the road at the New York Jets on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on CBS.

What is the Buffalo Bills record?

7-1, 1st in the AFC East. Home 3-1, road 4-0, division 0-1, conference 4-1, current streak W4. Points: 256 scored, 187 allowed.

Who do the Buffalo Bills play next?

The Buffalo Bills play next on the road at the New York Jets on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on CBS.

What are the Buffalo Bills' playoff chances?

99% to make the playoffs, 94% to win the AFC East, 36% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 20.8% to win the AFC and 11.1% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 13.1-3.9).

Who is the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback?

Josh Allen is first on the Bills depth chart at quarterback, with Kyle Allen behind.

Who is injured for the Buffalo Bills?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Tyrell Shavers (WR, out, knee - acl), Jordan Hancock (CB, injured reserve, hamstring) and Joshua Palmer (WR, injured reserve, hamstring). Questionable: Alec Anderson (OT, questionable, ankle), Dion Dawkins (OT, questionable, ribs) and Greg Gaines (DT, questionable, calf).

How good is the Buffalo Bills offense and defense?

Offense: 4th in EPA per play (+0.140), 4th on dropbacks, 7th on runs, success rate 47.6%. Defense: 13th in EPA allowed (-0.010), 16th against the pass, 8th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Buffalo Bills 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills (updated 2026-11-10).

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From the Bills Desk

Open the desk →

The VerdictBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rateThe snaps said Bills by 20 points, and one aborted snap in the first quarter did more than any pass the offense threw.Nov 10, 2026 · 3 min read The TapeJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in MinneapolisNov 10, 2026 · 3 min read The WireThree Bills starting tackles are questionable for Monday night at MinnesotaNov 7, 2026 · 2 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Bills, judged from every snap

Due to fall+1.4 wins above what the snaps earned

Real record7-1

Deserved5.6wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+1.4 luck wins · 2nd luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 5th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Bills would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games4-1decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index22%27th most timid of 28

Flags, net−10win prob. points · 18th

Bounce & kick luck+7.7points · +1.0 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 20.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

From the Bills DeskBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rateThe snaps said Bills by 20 points, and one aborted snap in the first quarter did more than any pass the offense threw.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNALeast shotgun rate, least outside runs in the leagueClosest twin: Raiders (62%)Clock IQ19th of 32 at managing the clockJoe Brady · 4 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real17-1

Deserved45.6-2.4

#1 seed for real, #4 seed deservedSeeds in the AFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+2.9The market underrates themPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 6-2 against the spread Sliding Doors0losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped27 points of win probability lost to those plays, 192 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 7Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsBills7-1 · proj 13.1-3.9 · 2nd in AFC99%▲ 4 pts

Win it all 11.1% · likeliest seed No. 1 (36%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 23 hardest of 32 · avg opp -0.4 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Bills stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.1404th

Dropback EPA+0.2534th

Rush EPA+0.0037th

Success rate47.6%6th

Defense

EPA allowed-0.01013th

Pass EPA allowed+0.04616th

Rush EPA allowed-0.1158th

Success allowed44.2%21st

Pass rate over expected: -3.4% (22nd most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 504 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 18.4 (15th most) · RB 25.1 (10th most) · WR 35.1 (11th most) · TE 13.2 (17th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 277 dropbacksJ.Allen+0.253EPA / dropback+4.0CPOE8.9aDOT48%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
J.Cook RB	169	814	8	+0.02	46%
J.Allen QB	32	85	7	+0.17	66%
R.Davis RB	13	44	0	-0.20	38%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
K.Shakir WR	42	19%	11%	5.4	397	1	+0.49
D.Kincaid TE	39	17%	17%	9.4	429	2	+0.53
K.Coleman WR	34	15%	23%	14.5	319	3	+0.49
D.Moore WR	32	14%	25%	15.7	285	2	+0.14
J.Cook RB	18	8%	0%	-0.3	110	0	+0.17
T.Johnson RB	17	8%	1%	0.8	210	0	+1.20
D.Knox TE	17	8%	3%	4.2	79	1	+0.08
J.Palmer WR	13	6%	15%	25.4	117	2	+0.39

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

66CMcGovern Cushenberry III

64RGTorrence Reed-Adams

DefenseBase 3-4 D

3FSHamlin Franklin Jr.

47LCBBenford Couch

98LDESanders Jackson

42LILBWilliams Elarms-Orr

23NBAlford Hancock ·

96NTWalker Gaines ·

21RCBIgbinosun Hairston

91RDEOliver Carter

8RILBBernard Andreessen

9SLBChubb Parker

24SSBishop Stone

15WLBRousseau Hoecht

HolderTommy Doman Jr.Kick ReturnerGreg Dortch Long SnapperReid Ferguson PunterTommy Doman Jr.Place KickerTyler Bass Punt ReturnerGreg Dortch

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	6	8
O'Cyrus TorrenceG	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Tylan GrableT	2	3			75	1	100
Dion DawkinsT	100	100	100	100	100	100	95
Josh AllenQB	100	100	100	100	100	100	95
Connor McGovernC	100	100	100	100	100	100	95
Alec AndersonC	100	100	100	100	100	100	93
Keon ColemanWR	50	74	48	78	70	85	77
Dawson KnoxTE	67	76	70	61	70	69	70
Khalil ShakirWR	53	49	73	76	69	60	67
D.J. MooreWR	76	31	64	39			66
Dalton KincaidTE	72	66	67	59	70	72	57
James CookRB	72	74	67	59	62	66	54
Jackson HawesTE	43	50	38	24	44	37	39
Ty JohnsonRB			23	32	22	18	24

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	6	8
Damar HamlinS	32	26	20	32	32	68	100
Cole BishopS	91	100	100	100	100	100	88
Christian BenfordCB	100	98	75		94	97	88
Davison IgbinosunCB	14	25	43	100	84	64	80
Terrel BernardLB	100	100	93	92	95	80	76
Te'Cory CouchDB							71
Deone WalkerDL	65	68	70	78	77	68	65
Gregory RousseauLB	80	66	81	82	80	80	61
Bradley ChubbLB	80	65	81	83	82	32	61
Dorian WilliamsLB	67	57	75	68	78	56	57
Landon JacksonDL	37	43	38	38		29	49
T.J. ParkerLB	18	26	13	26	21	62	49
DeWayne CarterDL	23	48	48	59	45	41	41
T.J. SandersDL					62	45	41