NFC North · 2026 season

MinnesotaVikings

6-2record3rdin North#6NFC seed+30point diffL2streak

PackersSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETGB -4.5 · O/U 41.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 5-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Emerging problemRun defenseEPA per rush allowed1st→22nd

Over the last 4 games the run defense has allowed -0.04 EPA per rush (126 rushes), 22nd among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: -0.22 EPA per rush (84 rushes), 1st.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftJordan Addison, WRoffensive snap share91%→45%

Jordan Addison has played 45% of offensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 91% in the 4 games before. On the field in 2 of 4 and 4 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 AM ET

The Minnesota Vikings are 6-2 in the 2026 season, 3rd in the NFC North and the No. 6 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of +30. On offense they rank 31st in the league in EPA per play (-0.162); on defense they rank 2nd (-0.149 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 75% chance to make the playoffs and 2.1% to win the Super Bowl. The Minnesota Vikings play next on the road at the Green Bay Packers on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the Minnesota Vikings record?

6-2, 3rd in the NFC North. Home 3-1, road 3-1, division 2-1, conference 4-1, current streak L2. Points: 146 scored, 116 allowed.

Who do the Minnesota Vikings play next?

The Minnesota Vikings play next on the road at the Green Bay Packers on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the Minnesota Vikings' playoff chances?

75% to make the playoffs, 21% to win the NFC North, 6% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 5.9% to win the NFC and 2.1% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 10.7-6.3).

Who is the Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback?

Kyler Murray is first on the Vikings depth chart at quarterback (currently out on the injury report), with Carson Wentz behind.

Who is injured for the Minnesota Vikings?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Jauan Jennings (WR, out, calf), Kyler Murray (QB, out, hamstring) and Demond Claiborne (RB, injured reserve, knee). Questionable: Kyle Van Noy (LB, questionable, calf) and Theo Jackson (S, questionable).

How good is the Minnesota Vikings offense and defense?

Offense: 31st in EPA per play (-0.162), 27th on dropbacks, 30th on runs, success rate 36.2%. Defense: 2nd in EPA allowed (-0.149), 1st against the pass, 11th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Minnesota Vikings 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/vikings (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Vikings Desk

Open the desk →

The TapeVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to BillsMinnesota converted none of eight third downs, threw three interceptions and fumbles, and held the ball 17:28 against Buffalo's 41:59.Nov 10, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportVikings must find open receivers for Hockenson and Jefferson without Kyler MurrayNov 7, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Vikings, judged from every snap

Due to fall+1.3 wins above what the snaps earned

Real record6-2

Deserved4.7wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

+1.3 luck wins · 4th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 15th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom lineEvery result so far matched the play or was a coin flip.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Vikings would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games4-1decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index62%9th most timid of 28

Flags, net+58win prob. points · 5th

Bounce & kick luck+5.5points · +0.7 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 20.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost play action, least pre-snap motion in the leagueClosest twin: Bears (68%)Clock IQ10th of 32 at managing the clockKevin O'Connell · 7 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real66-2

Deserved–4.7-3.3

In a playoff spot the snaps did not earnSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps−0.6The market has them about rightPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 4-4 against the spread Sliding Doors0losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped38 points of win probability lost to those plays, 140 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 6Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsVikings6-2 · proj 10.7-6.3 · 5th in NFC75%▼ 16 pts

Win it all 2.1% · likeliest seed No. 5 (20%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 6 hardest of 32 · avg opp +1.1 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Vikings stand

Offense

EPA per play-0.16231st

Dropback EPA-0.11227th

Rush EPA-0.23430th

Success rate36.2%30th

Defense

EPA allowed-0.1492nd

Pass EPA allowed-0.1791st

Rush EPA allowed-0.11011th

Success allowed37.6%1st

Pass rate over expected: -2.6% (20th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 447 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 10.0 (32nd most) · RB 20.2 (24th most) · WR 25.7 (30th most) · TE 9.3 (32nd most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 185 dropbacksK.Murray-0.045EPA / dropback+2.0CPOE7.7aDOT40%success

Quarterback · 73 dropbacksC.Wentz-0.273EPA / dropback-16.6CPOE9.0aDOT33%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
A.Jones RB	115	474	2	-0.20	35%
J.Mason RB	44	182	1	-0.20	27%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
J.Jefferson WR	52	24%	31%	10.5	393	4	+0.19
T.Hockenson TE	44	21%	19%	7.5	328	3	+0.40
J.Addison WR	37	17%	31%	14.9	277	1	-0.17
A.Jones RB	22	10%	0%	-0.1	95	0	-0.21
M.Price WR	11	5%	4%	6.4	32	1	-1.24
J.Jennings WR	10	5%	7%	11.9	54	0	-0.45
G.Bartholomew TE	8	4%	1%	3.3	54	0	+0.41
T.Felton WR	7	3%	3%	8.6	41	0	-0.11

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

DefenseBase 3-4 D

22FSSmith Jackson ·

2LCBRodgers Demmings ·

50LDEDrake Rodriguez Williams

55LILBWilson Golday

7NBMurphy Jr.Thomas

95NTBanks Orange

23RCBPierre Vaughn

61RDERedmond Ingram-Dawkins

51RILBCashman Pace Jr.

15SLBTurner Chambliss

44SSMetellus Ward

43WLBVan Ginkel Van Noy ·

HolderBrett Thorson Kick ReturnerMyles Price Long SnapperAndrew DePaola PunterBrett Thorson Place KickerWill Reichard Punt ReturnerMyles Price

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	5	7	8
Blake BrandelC	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Will FriesG	100	100	100	100	96	100	100
Brian O'NeillT	100	100	100	100	96	100	100
Christian DarrisawT	100	100	100	54		100	100
Kyler MurrayQB	17		100	100	100	100	100
Joe HuberG				91	100	100	100
Jordan AddisonWR	83	88	98	96		83	98
Justin JeffersonWR	92	100	12		89	93	96
T.J. HockensonTE	66	69	85	83	3	76	83
Jauan JenningsWR	48		80	95	69	56	55
Ben YurosekTE					55	51	43
Aaron JonesRB	46	81	80	73	87	25	40
DeeJay DallasRB	9	15	15	15	7	10	32
Jordan MasonRB	45					64	28

Defense	1	2	3	4	5	7	8
Josh MetellusS	100	100	100	100	100	97	100
Blake CashmanLB	96	89	97	97	100	95	99
Eric WilsonLB	99	89	96	92	93	92	99
Byron MurphyCB	99	100	97	85	84	74	90
Jalen RedmondDL	75	84	81	79	80	89	85
Harrison SmithS	38	39	45	64	64	51	83
Andrew Van GinkelLB	81	86	78	85	96	85	81
Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDL	62	16	74	46	73	75	79
Isaiah RodgersCB	100	97	94	87	82	75	75
Levi Drake RodriguezDL	50	81	41	51	62	57	65
Dallas TurnerLB	82	80	91	85	87	79	64
James PierreCB	34	35	41	31	47	61	36
Domonique OrangeDL	32	32	19	36	11	21	36
Theo JacksonS	63	68	71	46	69	59	35