Buccaneers 27, Bengals 33: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · Paycor StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
TB	3	7	10	7	27
CIN	14	10	3	6	33

Home · 6-2CincinnatiBengals33

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33-27 on Sun, Sep 13 at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: Buccaneers 3-6, Bengals 6-2. M.Gesicki (CIN) led all players with +6.9 EPA on 7 targets.

Who won Buccaneers vs Bengals?

The Cincinnati Bengals won 33-27. By quarter: TB 3-7-10-7, CIN 14-10-3-6.

Who was the best player in Buccaneers vs Bengals?

By expected points added: M.Gesicki (CIN, +6.9 EPA on 7 targets), E.Egbuka (TB, +4.8 EPA on 6 targets) and B.Irving (TB, +3.6 EPA on 8 carries).

What was the turning point of Buccaneers vs Bengals?

The biggest swing in win probability (16 points toward the Bengals) came in Q1 at 6:18: (No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-D.Knight at TB 27. D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner,

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Buccaneers 27, Bengals 33: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-13-tb-at-cin (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1Coin flipGame file →

Buccaneers47% success · +0.02 EPA/play

2733

Bengals47% success · −0.00 EPA/play

TB 50% deserveddeserved 50% CIN

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 0.0, a deserved win probability of 50%.

Deserved marginCIN by 0.0

Real marginCIN by 6

Luck pts TB−10.9

Luck pts CIN+7.2

The swingQ1 6:29 · TB · −20 pts of win probability. (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 yards,…

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive OffsideCIN → helped TB · Wk 1 Q1 13:35 · 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Irving. PENALTY on CIN-92-B.Hill, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 46…+2.2 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceCIN → helped TB · Wk 1 Q2 12:52 · 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 20-T.Davis at CIN 16. 20-T.Davis ran ob at CIN 20 for 4…+2.2 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA133 plays, one strand1 lead change · 7 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewJohn Hussey15 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: CIN by 3.5 · Snaps: CIN by 0.0Bengals covered; the snaps say Buccaneers should have

27@33

Week 1

If the 58-yard kick had missed

Buccaneers after the play14%what really happened

Q4 14:09 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CIN ▲TB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+16%Q1 6:18 · for CIN(No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-D.Knight at TB 27. D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
+12%Q3 2:16 · for TB(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right intended for A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by J.Trotter [V.Vea] at CIN 38. J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
+10%Q2 12:15 · for CIN(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8 yards (B.Carter). FUMBLES (B.Carter), RECOVERED by CIN-B.Cook at CIN -3. Touchback.
+8%Q4 3:19 · for TB(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
+7%Q4 2:13 · for CIN(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep middle to T.Higgins to TB 26 for 18 yards (Z.McCollum).

Every drive, on the field

CIN attacks →← TB attacks

Q1 15:00FG11p · 56y · 5:51
Q1 9:09PUNT3p · 4y · 1:31
Q1 7:38FUM3p · -6y · 1:20
Q1 6:18FUM3p · 3y · 0:56
Q1 5:22TD7p · 33y · 3:34
Q1 1:48FUM7p · 62y · 4:44
Q2 12:04TD12p · 80y · 6:32
Q2 5:32TD6p · 75y · 3:43
Q2 1:49FG10p · 70y · 1:43
Q2 0:06HALF1p · -1y · 0:06
Q3 15:00FG8p · 36y · 4:57
Q3 10:03FG10p · 38y · 6:22
Q3 3:41INT3p · 5y · 1:25
Q3 2:16FG8p · 43y · 3:12
Q4 14:04FUM6p · 16y · 3:33
Q4 10:31FG8p · 31y · 5:12
Q4 5:19TD7p · 51y · 2:00
Q4 3:19END8p · 59y · 3:19

Buccaneers8 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)63%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position0three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Bengals8 drives7scoring drives (3 TD)88%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:09Field goalC.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.3–0
Q1
6:18Touchdown(No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-D.Knight at TB 27. D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.3–7
Q1
1:48Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short left to M.Gesicki for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.3–14
Q2
5:32TouchdownC.Brown up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.3–21
Q2
1:49TouchdownB.Irving left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.10–21
Q2
0:06Field goalE.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.10–24
Q3
10:03Field goalE.McPherson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.10–27
Q3
3:41Field goalC.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.13–27
Q3
2:16Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right intended for A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by J.Trotter [V.Vea] at CIN 38. J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.20–27
Q4
14:04Field goalE.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.20–30
Q4
5:19Field goalE.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.20–33
Q4
3:19Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.27–33

Team stats

TBvsCIN

282Total yards351

193Passing yards245

89Rushing yards106

5.4Yards per play5.6

19First downs26

5-10 · 50%Third down8-14 · 57%

0-0Fourth down0-0

2-4Red zone TDs2-5

23/28Comp / att25/35

4.5Yards per carry3.9

4Turnovers1

4 (−23 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−9 yds)

8 for 39Penalties7 for 47

28:35Possession31:25

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.185-0.002

Dropback EPA-0.292-0.036

Rush EPA+0.072+0.050

Success rate47%47%

Explosive plays37

Plays5162

Who moved the needle

M.GesickiTargets: 7+6.9

E.EgbukaTargets: 6+4.8

B.IrvingCarries: 8+3.6

S.PerineTargets: 3+3.1

C.GodwinTargets: 4+2.9

T.HigginsTargets: 6+2.3

Cost their side the most

B.MayfieldDropbacks: 36-10.5

A.IosivasTargets: 3-8.4

J.ChaseTargets: 4-2.5

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Baker MayfieldQB	23/28	216	7.7	0	0	4-23	35.8	98.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	8	45	5.6	1	10
Baker MayfieldQB	5	30	6.0	1	9
Kenny GainwellRB	5	15	3.0	0	7
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	1	3	3.0	0	3
Tez JohnsonWR	1	-4	-4.0	0	-4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Emeka EgbukaWR	5	6	63	12.6	17
Bucky IrvingRB	7	7	48	6.9	22
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	4	4	40	10.0	30
Ted Hurst IIIWR	3	3	36	12.0	16
Cade OttonTE	3	5	26	8.7	13
Kenny GainwellRB	1	1	3	3.0	3
Tez JohnsonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Josiah TrotterLB	11	4	1	2	1	1
Zyon McCollumCB	9	8	0	1	2	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.S	9	7	0	0	0	0
Alex AnzaloneLB	7	2	0	0	0	0
A'Shawn RobinsonDT	5	3	0	0	0	1
Benjamin MorrisonCB	4	4	0	1	1	0
Keionte ScottCB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Tykee SmithS	4	3	0	0	1	0
Jacob ParrishCB	2	2	0	0	1	0
Anthony NelsonLB	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	2/2	100.0	51	3/3	9

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Joe BurrowQB	25/35	254	7.3	1	1	1-9	79.8	89.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chase BrownRB	16	56	3.5	1	13
Samaje PerineRB	5	20	4.0	0	8
Joe BurrowQB	5	20	4.0	0	12
Dohnte MeyersWR	1	10	10.0	0	10

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mike GesickiTE	5	7	78	15.6	1	25
Tee HigginsWR	3	6	59	19.7	0	29
Samaje PerineRB	3	3	30	10.0	0	14
Chase BrownRB	5	6	22	4.4	0	9
Drew SampleTE	3	3	19	6.3	0	11
Dohnte MeyersWR	1	1	18	18.0	0	18
Ja'Marr ChaseWR	2	4	12	6.0	0	16
Andrei IosivasWR	2	3	12	6.0	0	12
Tanner HudsonTE	1	1	4	4.0	0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jordan BattleS	9	6	0	0	0	0
Barrett CarterLB	8	5	0.5	1	0	1
Dax HillCB	7	7	0	0	0	0
Demetrius Knight Jr.LB	7	5	0	0	0	0
Bryan CookS	6	4	0	0	0	0
Jalen DavisCB	5	2	0	1	1	0
DJ Turner IICB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Jonathan AllenDT	3	2	1	1	0	1
Samaje PerineRB	2	1	0	0	0	0
Myles MurphyDE	2	1	0.5	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Evan McPhersonPK	4/4	100.0	58	3/3	15

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

David WalkerSLB→ Yaya Diaby

Jacob ParrishNB→ Keionte Scott

Dohnte MeyersWR→ Andrei Iosivas

Mike GesickiTE→ Drew Sample

Oren BurksSLB→ Cashius Howell

Tacario DavisLCB→ Jalen Davis

AwayBuccaneers1 next man up · 1 questionable · 2 changes