Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · Lumen FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
KC	0	0	3	0	3
SEA	0	10	3	7	20

Home · 5-4SeattleSeahawks20

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:44 AM ET

The Seattle Seahawks beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-3 on Sun, Oct 25 at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Chiefs 6-2, Seahawks 5-4. S.Darnold (SEA) led all players with +15.4 EPA on 30 dropbacks.

Who won Chiefs vs Seahawks?

The Seattle Seahawks won 20-3. By quarter: KC 0-0-3-0, SEA 0-10-3-7.

Who was the best player in Chiefs vs Seahawks?

By expected points added: S.Darnold (SEA, +15.4 EPA on 30 dropbacks), J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, +12.4 EPA on 12 targets) and N.Gray (KC, +3.5 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Chiefs vs Seahawks?

The biggest swing in win probability (13 points toward the Chiefs) came in Q2 at 0:23: (Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short middle intended for R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by N.Williams [G.Karlaftis] at KC -9. N.Williams to SEA 44 for 65 yards (C.Cross).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-kc-at-sea (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

Chiefs36% success · −0.16 EPA/play

320

Seahawks48% success · +0.16 EPA/play

KC <1% deserveddeserved >99% SEA

Seahawks earned it: the snaps said Seahawks by 15.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSEA by 15.3

Real marginSEA by 17

Luck pts KC+3.4

Luck pts SEA−0.2

The swingQ2 6:09 · KC · −14 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 11-J.Royals INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Okada [3-N.Emmanwori] at SEA 34. 39-T.Okada to SEA 34 for no gain (11-J.Royals).

Flags that moved this game

1False StartSEA → helped KC · Wk 7 Q2 13:53 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on SEA-75-A.Bradford, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 36 - No Play.+2.9 WP
2Offensive HoldingKC → helped SEA · Wk 7 Q4 11:44 · (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left tackle to SEA 39 for 6 yards (7-U.Nwosu). PENALTY on KC-76-K.Suamataia, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+2.4 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1KC · 4th & 4Andy Reid chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 7 Q1 1:54, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.87 EP
2SEA · 4th & 5Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 49, Wk 7 Q4 14:23, up 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA135 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 5 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewJohn Hussey6 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: SEA by 3 · Snaps: SEA by 15.3Seahawks covered; the snaps agree

3@20

Week 7Changes the winner

If the 25-yard kick had missed

Chiefs after the play34%what really happened

Q2 8:24 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SEA ▲KC ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+13%Q2 0:23 · for KC(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short middle intended for R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by N.Williams [G.Karlaftis] at KC -9. N.Williams to SEA 44 for 65 yards (C.Cross).
+12%Q2 1:44 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at KC 1 for 27 yards (M.Delane).The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
+9%Q2 11:19 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short middle to J.Smith-Njigba to KC 20 for 33 yards (N.Williams; A.Gilman).
+7%Q2 6:53 · for SEAP.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to K.Walker.
+7%Q2 6:49 · for KC(Shotgun) K.Walker up the middle to SEA 46 for 3 yards (E.Jones; N.Emmanwori).

Every drive, on the field

SEA attacks →← KC attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT5p · 22y · 3:03
Q1 11:57PUNT9p · 28y · 4:45
Q1 7:12PUNT9p · 48y · 5:24
Q1 1:48FG15p · 86y · 8:26
Q2 8:22INT6p · 12y · 2:22
Q2 6:00TD10p · 66y · 4:16
Q2 1:44PUNT3p · 5y · 0:28
Q2 1:16INT6p · 61y · 1:09
Q2 0:07MISS2p · 4y · 0:07
Q3 15:00FG13p · 57y · 6:51
Q3 8:09FG13p · 44y · 6:27
Q3 1:42PUNT3p · 5y · 2:25
Q4 14:17MISS11p · 60y · 5:44
Q4 8:33TD9p · 65y · 4:46
Q4 3:47DOWNS4p · 3y · 0:34
Q4 3:13END6p · 22y · 3:13

Chiefs8 drives1scoring drives (0 TD)13%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Seahawks7 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)57%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
8:22Field goalJ.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.0–3
Q2
1:44Touchdown(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at KC 1 for 27 yards (M.Delane).The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.0–10
Q3
8:09Field goal J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.0–13
Q3
1:42Field goalH.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.3–13
Q4
3:47TouchdownE.Wilson left tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.3–20

Team stats

KCvsSEA

213Total yards410

163Passing yards257

50Rushing yards153

4.3Yards per play5.9

11First downs24

3-11 · 27%Third down11-16 · 69%

2-3Fourth down1-1

0-0Red zone TDs0-3

19/33Comp / att20/28

3.1Yards per carry3.7

1Turnovers1

1 (−2 yds)Sacks allowed0

2 for 15Penalties4 for 20

24:09Possession35:51

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.105+0.156

Dropback EPA-0.116+0.514

Rush EPA-0.077-0.119

Success rate36%48%

Explosive plays07

Plays5069

Who moved the needle

S.DarnoldDropbacks: 30+15.4

J.Smith-NjigbaTargets: 12+12.4

N.GrayTargets: 3+3.5

A.BarnerTargets: 5+1.7

E.WilsonCarries: 24+0.3

T.KelceTargets: 8-0.1

Cost their side the most

R.ShaheedTargets: 3-6.8

P.MahomesDropbacks: 36-4.2

V.JonesCarries: 5-3.1

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Patrick MahomesQB	19/33	165	5.0	0	1	1-2	59.2	58.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	14	36	2.6	0	7
Patrick MahomesQB	2	14	7.0	0	9

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Noah GrayTE	3	3	44	14.7	19
Travis KelceTE	4	8	44	11.0	19
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	4	5	21	5.3	7
Cyrus AllenWR	1	2	18	18.0	18
Emmett JohnsonRB	2	3	17	8.5	12
Xavier WorthyWR	3	6	11	3.7	7
Justin WatsonWR	1	1	7	7.0	7
Andrew ArmstrongWR	1	2	3	3.0	3
Jalen RoyalsWR	0	2	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Drue TranquillLB	12	4	0	0
Nick BoltonLB	11	6	1	0
Nohl WilliamsCB	10	4	1	1
Chamarri ConnerS	7	2	0	0
Jack CochraneLB	6	3	0	0
Khyiris TongaDT	6	2	1	0
Chris Roland-WallaceCB	5	3	1	1
Ashton GillotteDE	5	3	1	0
Mansoor DelaneCB	5	2	1	2
Alohi GilmanS	5	1	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison ButkerPK	1/3	33.3	50	0/0	3

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Sam DarnoldQB	20/28	257	9.2	1	1	0-0	91.5	96.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Emanuel WilsonRB	24	100	4.2	1	21
Sam DarnoldQB	2	17	8.5	0	10
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	2	13	6.5	0	8
George HolaniRB	5	11	2.2	0	5
Velus Jones Jr.RB	5	8	1.6	0	11
AJ BarnerTE	3	4	1.3	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	9	12	150	16.7	1	33
AJ BarnerTE	4	5	42	10.5	0	19
Cooper KuppWR	2	2	20	10.0	0	11
Eric SaubertTE	1	1	17	17.0	0	17
Emanuel WilsonRB	1	1	15	15.0	0	15
George HolaniRB	1	2	12	12.0	0	12
Rashid ShaheedWR	2	3	1	0.5	0	3
Tory HortonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Ernest Jones IVLB	9	5	0	0	0	0
Tyrice KnightLB	8	4	0	1	0	0
Ty OkadaS	5	2	0	0	1	0
Devon WitherspoonCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Nick EmmanworiS	4	2	0	0	0	1
Derick HallLB	3	2	1	1	0	2
Leonard WilliamsDT	3	2	0	1	1	1
Josh JobeCB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Byron Murphy IIDT	3	1	0	0	0	1
DeMarcus LawrenceLB	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason MyersPK	2/2	100.0	35	2/2	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Chiefs run defense vs Seahawks run game
The Chiefs' run defense ranks 7th in EPA per rush (-0.14 allowed, 113 rushes faced) and faces a Seahawks run game ranked 30th (-0.24, 156 rushes).
30thSEA offense23 spots apart7thKC defense
2Chiefs third-down defense vs Seahawks third-down offense
The Chiefs' third-down defense ranks 9th in third-down conversion rate (37.1% allowed, 70 third downs faced) and faces a Seahawks third-down offense ranked 29th (33.8%, 74 third downs).
29thSEA offense20 spots apart9thKC defense
3Chiefs takeaway defense vs Seahawks ball security
The Chiefs' takeaway defense ranks 5th in turnovers per game (1.6 takeaways a game, 5 games) and faces a Seahawks ball security ranked 30th (2.0 giveaways a game, 6 games).
30thSEA offense25 spots apart5thKC defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Chiefs have the ballNo big edge

KC dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSEA pass defense

8th+0.18175 dropbacks

-0.10 allowed214 dropbacks faced2nd

KC run gameEPA per rushSEA run defense

1st+0.12129 rushes

-0.19 allowed142 rushes faced2nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Seahawks have the ballEdge KC · +23 ranks

SEA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackKC pass defense

19th+0.04219 dropbacks

KC +16

-0.08 allowed202 dropbacks faced3rd

SEA run gameEPA per rushKC run defense

30th-0.24156 rushes

KC +23

-0.14 allowed113 rushes faced7th

Third downEdge KC · +20 ranks

KC third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSEA third-down defense

13th42.4%59 third downs

SEA +8

32.9% allowed82 third downs faced5th

SEA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateKC third-down defense

29th33.8%74 third downs

KC +20

37.1% allowed70 third downs faced9th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge KC · +16 ranks

KC red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSEA red-zone defense

16th57%23 trips

KC +16

85% allowed13 trips faced32nd

SEA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateKC red-zone defense

10th63%19 trips

KC +8

38% allowed13 trips faced2nd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge KC · +12 ranks

KC big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSEA defense against big plays

2nd12.8%304 plays

5.9% allowed356 plays faced3rd

SEA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateKC defense against big plays

17th9.1%375 plays

KC +12

7.3% allowed315 plays faced5th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

KC pass protectionsack rateSEA pass rush

3rd3.4% sacked175 dropbacks

7.5% of dropbacks214 dropbacks faced8th

SEA pass protectionsack rateKC pass rush

23rd7.3% sacked219 dropbacks

4.0% of dropbacks202 dropbacks faced27th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge KC · +25 ranks

KC ball securityturnovers per gameSEA takeaway defense

4th0.6 giveaways a game5 games

1.5 takeaways a game6 games7th

SEA ball securityturnovers per gameKC takeaway defense

30th2.0 giveaways a game6 games

KC +25

1.6 takeaways a game5 games5th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: KC 5 games, 304 offensive and 315 defensive plays · SEA 6 games, 375 offensive and 356 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Ben VanSumerenFB→ Emmett Johnson

Rashee RiceWR→ Jalen Royals

Josh DownsWR→ Andrew Armstrong

Jaylon MooreRT→ Joshua Ezeudu

Jeffrey BassaSLB→ Ashton Gillotte

Jadon CanadyNB→ Chris Roland-Wallace

Drew LockQB→ Sam Darnold

Zach CharbonnetRB→ Emanuel Wilson

Brady RussellFB→ George Holani

Rashid ShaheedWR→ Tory Horton

Josh JonesLT→ Charles Cross