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The Verdict2026 season · through Week 9

Flag Ledger

The win probability every accepted penalty moved, by team, by foul and by game. The flags that decided games, and the touchdowns they erased.

136 games · 32 teamsDownload CSVThis week's issueMethod
Accepted flags1,99714.7 a game · 16,042 yards
Costliest foulOffensive Holding424 flags · 915 pts of win probability handed over
Touchdowns erased30121 expected points wiped off the board
Most self-inflictedRams logoLAR221 pts of win probability given away on 71 flags

Net from flags

Win probability drawn minus given away

Bottom linePittsburgh Steelers gained the most from flags (+96.4); New York Jets hurt themselves the most (−91.7).

How to read this chart
One row per team, best at the top.
Every accepted penalty changes the chance of winning: flags a team draws add to it, flags called on it take away.
Green bar to the right:
the team gained more win probability from flags than it gave away. Red bar to the left: it gave more away.
The number
is the season net in points of win probability; 100 points is one whole game.
Steelers logoPIT+96.4Lions logoDET+81.4Giants logoNYG+68.3Eagles logoPHI+59.6Vikings logoMIN+57.9Cowboys logoDAL+56.0Broncos logoDEN+42.7Commanders logoWSH+41.3Chargers logoLAC+38.6Bengals logoCIN+21.6Titans logoTEN+3.8Buccaneers logoTB+1.8Saints logoNO+0.8Chiefs logoKC+0.8Falcons logoATL−1.4Dolphins logoMIA−6.9Patriots logoNE−7.9Bills logoBUF−9.7Panthers logoCAR−11.9Texans logoHOU−13.9Colts logoIND−17.0Packers logoGB−18.849ers logoSF−29.5Cardinals logoARI−30.3Bears logoCHI−30.3Raiders logoLV−36.8Browns logoCLE−40.4Seahawks logoSEA−42.1Ravens logoBAL−59.9Jaguars logoJAX−60.0Rams logoLAR−62.6Jets logoNYJ−91.7

By foul

Win probability moved, season total
FoulFlagsYardsWP movedPer flag
Offensive Holding42440979152.2
Defensive Pass Interference15924766974.4
False Start37818556461.7
Unnecessary Roughness9011604134.6
Roughing the Passer617492894.7
Defensive Holding1004752702.7
Delay of Game1256081661.3
Defensive Offside884161591.8
Face Mask547181382.6
Illegal Use of Hands382231293.4
Intentional Grounding202351045.2
Offensive Pass Interference35340992.8
Illegal Contact37185932.5
Neutral Zone Infraction54266881.6
Illegal Formation52258871.7
Illegal Shift41201601.5
Kickoff Short of Landing Zone2315502.2
Encroachment24110451.9

The flags that moved games

Biggest single swings of the season

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on LV in Week 4, worth +35 points of win probability to KC.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped KC · Wk 4 Q4 3:35 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the…+34.9 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessLA → helped ARI · Wk 6 Q4 0:47 · (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 86-J.Brooks to LA 44 for 21 yards (30-J.Wallace). PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace,…+24.1 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessNYJ → helped GB · Wk 2 OT 6:17 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 30-C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (2-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on…+23.9 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped BAL · Wk 3 Q2 11:37 · (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49…+19.0 WP
  5. 5Illegal ContactSF → helped WAS · Wk 6 Q4 3:01 · (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-R.Height and 53-J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-24-A.Davis,…+18.8 WP
  6. 6Roughing the PasserBAL → helped NO · Wk 2 Q4 2:03 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson,…+18.2 WP
  7. 7Defensive Too Many Men on FieldLV → helped LAC · Wk 2 Q4 3:52 · (Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.+17.8 WP
  8. 8Roughing the PasserNYJ → helped MIA · Wk 7 Q4 4:55 · 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards,…+17.6 WP
  9. 9Roughing the PasserCAR → helped CLE · Wk 3 Q4 2:36 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback.…+16.9 WP
  10. 10Defensive Pass InterferenceTB → helped PIT · Wk 6 Q4 3:38 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12…+15.4 WP
  11. 11Unnecessary RoughnessMIN → helped TB · Wk 3 Q4 10:49 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on…+15.3 WP
  12. 12Defensive Pass InterferenceHOU → helped BUF · Wk 1 Q2 4:13 · 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46…+14.8 WP
  13. 13Roughing the KickerCIN → helped PIT · Wk 3 Q3 6:48 · 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. PENALTY on CIN-52-C.Johnson, Roughing the…+14.5 WP
  14. 14Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped PIT · Wk 1 Q2 14:24 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on ATL-24-Aj.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 37…+14.4 WP
  15. 15Offensive HoldingHOU → helped DAL · Wk 4 Q4 3:30 · (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+14.3 WP

The ledger

All 32 · cleanest first
How to read this chart
WP given:
win probability handed to opponents by flags on the team, in points (100 = a whole game).
Drawn / WP gained:
flags called on opponents, and the win probability they handed this team.
Net:
gained minus given. TDs erased: the team's own touchdowns wiped off by its flags, and the expected points lost.
TeamFlagsYardsWP givenDrawnWP gainedNetTDs erasedPts erased
Steelers logoPIT4741450.162146.5+96.400.0
Giants logoNYG5951074.561142.8+68.300.0
Saints logoNO4933091.05891.8+0.800.0
Titans logoTEN5341091.66795.4+3.800.0
Vikings logoMIN4333495.064152.9+57.900.0
Lions logoDET5644798.452179.8+81.400.0
Commanders logoWSH61468106.753148.0+41.3318.2
Bengals logoCIN55437111.173132.7+21.627.7
Dolphins logoMIA60423129.758122.8−6.913.2
Chargers logoLAC66540129.967168.5+38.600.0
Colts logoIND54392133.770116.7−17.000.0
Buccaneers logoTB63449133.860135.6+1.8213.1
Falcons logoATL60538134.165132.7−1.400.0
Patriots logoNE66500136.058128.1−7.913.8
49ers logoSF50445136.450106.9−29.513.1
Chiefs logoKC55484137.352138.1+0.812.8
Eagles logoPHI64451138.978198.5+59.600.0
Bears logoCHI72570154.467124.1−30.300.0
Broncos logoDEN69478157.073199.7+42.700.0
Texans logoHOU64544164.860150.9−13.913.7
Jaguars logoJAX58479165.670105.6−60.0413.7
Ravens logoBAL74539170.249110.3−59.925.5
Seahawks logoSEA65594171.175129.0−42.113.0
Raiders logoLV54413175.171138.3−36.812.9
Packers logoGB74605175.255156.4−18.815.9
Bills logoBUF68583184.358174.6−9.727.6
Cardinals logoARI68629188.358158.0−30.300.0
Browns logoCLE82563189.255148.8−40.400.0
Panthers logoCAR70635191.570179.6−11.924.0
Cowboys logoDAL74667199.985255.9+56.016.5
Jets logoNYJ73572213.150121.4−91.729.6
Rams logoLAR71599220.853158.2−62.626.8

Touchdowns erased

Scores wiped out by a flag on the scoring team
  1. 1WAS · Illegal ShiftWk 4 · (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Shift, 5 yards,…−9.0 EP
  2. 2TB · Offensive HoldingWk 3 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-67-L.Goedeke, Offensive Holding, 7…−8.8 EP
  3. 3DAL · Offensive HoldingWk 7 · 4-J.Elliott kicks 56 yards from PHI 35 to DAL 9. 32-T.Goodson for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DAL-45-J.Barron, Offensive…−6.5 EP
  4. 4GB · Offensive Pass InterferenceWk 5 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-J.Sturdivant for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on GB-87-J.Sturdivant, Offensive Pass…−5.9 EP
  5. 5NYJ · Offensive HoldingWk 1 · 0-B.Allen left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYJ-71-J.Myers, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 23 - No…−5.6 EP
  6. 6BUF · Offensive HoldingWk 6 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Offensive Holding,…−5.1 EP
  7. 7WAS · Illegal FormationWk 3 · (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA…−4.9 EP
  8. 8LA · Face MaskWk 7 · 24-B.Corum left guard for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LA-73-S.Avila, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.−4.7 EP
  9. 9CIN · Offensive HoldingWk 8 · (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 30-C.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-63-D.Fairchild, Offensive Holding,…−4.6 EP
  10. 10JAX · Offensive HoldingWk 4 · 33-B.Tuten right guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-76-E.Cleveland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 39.−4.5 EP
  11. 11WAS · Face MaskWk 6 · (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SF 25.−4.3 EP
  12. 12TB · Illegal ShiftWk 7 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-7-B.Irving, Illegal Shift, 5…−4.3 EP

How it works

What a flag is worth. For every accepted penalty we take the change in win probability on that snap (nflverse WPA) and credit it to the team that drew the flag. When the flag wipes out the play ("No Play"), the whole swing is the flag's. When the penalty is added to a live play, the swing includes the play too, so those numbers are an upper bound. Declined and offsetting fouls are left out.

Touchdowns erased are scores called back by a flag on the scoring team. Their cost is a touchdown (6.95 expected points with the extra point) minus the expected points of the offense after the flag. Points of win probability: 100 = a full game.

The full Verdict method →

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