Packers 17, Buccaneers 14: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Raymond James StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
GB	0	10	7	0	17
TB	0	7	0	7	14

Home · 3-6Tampa BayBuccaneers14

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:36 PM ET

The Green Bay Packers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-14 on Sun, Oct 4 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Packers 6-3, Buccaneers 3-6. J.Love (GB) led all players with +6.9 EPA on 30 dropbacks.

Who won Packers vs Buccaneers?

The Green Bay Packers won 17-14. By quarter: GB 0-10-7-0, TB 0-7-0-7.

Who was the best player in Packers vs Buccaneers?

By expected points added: J.Love (GB, +6.9 EPA on 30 dropbacks), C.Watson (GB, +4.9 EPA on 3 targets) and T.Kraft (GB, +4.0 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of Packers vs Buccaneers?

The biggest swing in win probability (15 points toward the Packers) came in Q4 at 1:34: (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle intended for T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by K.Nixon [E.Williams] at GB 43. K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (T.Hurst).The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Packers 17, Buccaneers 14: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-gb-at-tb (updated 2026-11-11).

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The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Packers46% success · +0.01 EPA/play

1714

Buccaneers44% success · −0.06 EPA/play

GB 68% deserveddeserved 33% TB

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 2.5, a deserved win probability of 68%.

Deserved marginGB by 2.5

Real marginGB by 3

Luck pts GB−4.0

Luck pts TB+2.6

The swingQ4 4:26 · GB · −21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft).

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive Too Many Men on FieldTB → helped GB · Wk 4 Q3 1:47 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play.+6.1 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceTB → helped GB · Wk 4 Q2 14:56 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden (25-J.Parrish). PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive…+4.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1GB · 4th & 2Matt LaFleur chose Punt at opp 44, Wk 4 Q1 10:27, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.40 EP
2TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 33, Wk 4 Q1 13:16, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA134 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 5 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Kemp14 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: GB by 3 · Snaps: GB by 2.5A push against the line; the snaps say Buccaneers should have

17@14

Week 4Changes the winner

If the Buccaneers had converted that fourth-and-11

Buccaneers after the play6%what really happened

Q4 1:34 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

TB ▲GB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+15%Q4 1:34 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle intended for T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by K.Nixon [E.Williams] at GB 43. K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (T.Hurst).The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to T.Hurst (K.Nixon) [E.Williams].
+14%Q4 9:13 · for TB(Shotgun) K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (T.Smith). FUMBLES (T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-Z.McCollum at TB 4.
+13%Q4 1:47 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Daniels sacked at TB 48 for -6 yards (E.Williams).Penalty on TB-T.Johnson, Illegal Motion, declined.
+10%Q4 14:49 · for TB(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left to K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
+9%Q2 0:41 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left intended for K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by E.Cooper at GB 38. E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (J.Daniels).

Every drive, on the field

TB attacks →← GB attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 8y · 1:51
Q1 13:09PUNT5p · 27y · 2:50
Q1 10:19INT6p · 37y · 3:09
Q1 7:10TD16p · 68y · 9:16
Q2 12:54PUNT3p · 3y · 1:14
Q2 11:40PUNT3p · -6y · 1:13
Q2 10:27TD9p · 54y · 5:14
Q2 5:13PUNT4p · 5y · 1:58
Q2 3:15INT9p · 43y · 2:41
Q2 0:34FG3p · 4y · 0:34
Q3 15:00TD8p · 80y · 4:28
Q3 10:32PUNT3p · -6y · 2:13
Q3 8:19PUNT3p · -2y · 2:02
Q3 6:17TD12p · 84y · 6:28
Q4 14:49FUM9p · 65y · 5:43
Q4 9:06PUNT6p · -3y · 4:07
Q4 4:59INT2p · 7y · 0:41
Q4 4:18DOWNS10p · 38y · 2:53
Q4 1:25END3p · -17y · 1:25

Packers9 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 36avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Buccaneers9 drives2scoring drives (2 TD)22%drives ending in pointsOWN 23avg starting field position3three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
12:54Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.7–0
Q2
5:13TouchdownS.Tucker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.7–7
Q2
0:00Field goalT.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.10–7
Q3
10:32TouchdownJ.Love pass incomplete short right to T.Kraft (T.Smith).Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.J.Love pass short right to T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.17–7
Q4
14:49Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left to K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.17–14

Team stats

GBvsTB

283Total yards275

197Passing yards134

86Rushing yards141

5.1Yards per play4.5

15First downs19

2-10 · 20%Third down5-12 · 42%

3-3Fourth down2-3

2-3Red zone TDs2-2

22/30Comp / att19/27

3.4Yards per carry4.5

2Turnovers2

0Sacks allowed3 (−14 yds)

10 for 68Penalties4 for 17

30:10Possession29:50

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.018-0.038

Dropback EPA+0.230-0.078

Rush EPA-0.271+0.020

Success rate46%44%

Explosive plays34

Plays5261

Who moved the needle

J.LoveDropbacks: 30+6.9

C.WatsonTargets: 3+4.9

T.KraftTargets: 7+4.0

T.HurstTargets: 3+3.2

S.TuckerCarries: 3+1.8

C.OttonTargets: 6+1.1

Cost their side the most

K.JohnsonCarries: 8-5.9

E.EgbukaTargets: 4-4.3

M.LloydCarries: 7-3.0

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	22/30	197	6.6	2	1	0-0	69.2	98.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kaleb JohnsonRB	8	42	5.3	31
Chris BrooksRB	4	30	7.5	27
MarShawn LloydRB	7	13	1.9	5
Matthew GoldenWR	1	6	6.0	6
Tucker KraftTE	1	3	3.0	3
Jordan LoveQB	4	-8	-2.0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian WatsonWR	3	3	47	15.7	0	18
Tucker KraftTE	6	7	42	7.0	1	17
MarShawn LloydRB	5	5	36	7.2	0	16
Mark RedmanTE	2	2	29	14.5	0	25
Matthew GoldenWR	3	7	21	7.0	1	13
Jonnu SmithTE	1	1	19	19.0	0	19
Chris BrooksRB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Bo MeltonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
J. Michael SturdivantWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Skyy MooreWR	1	2	-2	-2.0	0	-2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Edgerrin CooperLB	9	4	1	0	1	1
Zaire FranklinLB	8	3	0	0	0	0
Keisean NixonCB	7	4	0	1	2	0
Evan WilliamsS	7	3	1	1	2	2
Javon BullardS	7	1	0	0	0	0
Brandon CisseCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Xavier McKinneyS	5	2	1	1	0	1
Lukas Van NessDE	4	2	0	0	0	0
Isaiah McDuffieLB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Brenton Cox Jr.DE	3	2	0	1	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	1/1	100.0	58	2/2	5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jalon DanielsQB	19/27	148	5.5	1	2	3-14	56.3	65.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	16	61	3.8	0	7
Jalon DanielsQB	8	55	6.9	0	21
Sean TuckerRB	3	10	3.3	1	8
Tez JohnsonWR	1	10	10.0	0	10
Kenny GainwellRB	3	5	1.7	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cade OttonTE	4	6	37	9.3	0	13
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	6	7	31	5.2	0	13
Ted Hurst IIIWR	2	3	25	12.5	0	21
Kenny GainwellRB	2	2	22	11.0	1	12
Tez JohnsonWR	2	2	17	8.5	0	15
Emeka EgbukaWR	2	4	13	6.5	0	8
Kameron JohnsonWR	1	2	3	3.0	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Josiah TrotterLB	9	7	0	0	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.S	6	5	0	0	0
Tykee SmithS	6	4	0	0	1
Jacob ParrishCB	5	5	1	2	0
Zyon McCollumCB	3	3	0	0	0
Keionte ScottCB	3	3	0	0	0
David WalkerLB	3	2	0	0	0
Alex AnzaloneLB	2	2	0	0	0
Yaya DiabyLB	2	1	0	0	0
Kameron JohnsonWR	2	1	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Buccaneers third-down defense vs Packers third-down offense
The Buccaneers' third-down defense ranks 7th in third-down conversion rate (34.9% allowed, 43 third downs faced) and faces a Packers third-down offense ranked 32nd (27.8%, 36 third downs).
32ndGB offense25 spots apart7thTB defense
2Packers defense against big plays vs Buccaneers big-play offense
The Packers' defense against big plays ranks 5th in explosive-play rate (6.7% allowed, 195 plays faced) and faces a Buccaneers big-play offense ranked 26th (7.3%, 177 plays).
26thTB offense21 spots apart5thGB defense
3Packers pass rush vs Buccaneers pass protection
The Packers' pass rush ranks 13th in sack rate (6.7% of dropbacks, 105 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers pass protection ranked 32nd (10.7% sacked, 122 dropbacks).
32ndTB offense19 spots apart13thGB defense

When the Packers have the ballEdge TB · +26 ranks

GB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

20th-0.02132 dropbacks

TB +8

-0.01 allowed106 dropbacks faced12th

GB run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

32nd-0.4148 rushes

TB +26

-0.21 allowed64 rushes faced6th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Buccaneers have the ballNo big edge

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackGB pass defense

31st-0.25122 dropbacks

+0.15 allowed105 dropbacks faced25th

TB run gameEPA per rushGB run defense

16th-0.0755 rushes

-0.03 allowed90 rushes faced21st

Third downEdge TB · +25 ranks

GB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

32nd27.8%36 third downs

TB +25

34.9% allowed43 third downs faced7th

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateGB third-down defense

27th34.9%43 third downs

55.8% allowed43 third downs faced29th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge TB · +21 ranks

GB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

26th45%11 trips

TB +21

38% allowed8 trips faced5th

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateGB red-zone defense

31st30%10 trips

77% allowed13 trips faced26th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge GB · +21 ranks

GB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

19th8.9%180 plays

TB +9

8.2% allowed170 plays faced10th

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateGB defense against big plays

26th7.3%177 plays

GB +21

6.7% allowed195 plays faced5th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge GB · +19 ranks

GB pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

17th6.1% sacked132 dropbacks

5.7% of dropbacks106 dropbacks faced21st

TB pass protectionsack rateGB pass rush

32nd10.7% sacked122 dropbacks

GB +19

6.7% of dropbacks105 dropbacks faced13th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

GB ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

19th1.3 giveaways a game3 games

0.7 takeaways a game3 games22nd

TB ball securityturnovers per gameGB takeaway defense

29th2.3 giveaways a game3 games

0.7 takeaways a game3 games22nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: GB 3 games, 180 offensive and 195 defensive plays · TB 3 games, 177 offensive and 170 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Savion WilliamsWR→ Skyy Moore

Aaron BanksLG→ Laken Tomlinson

Ty'Ron HopperRILB→ Zaire Franklin

Baker MayfieldQB→ Jalon Daniels

Ted Hurst IIIWR→ Tez Johnson

Rueben Bain Jr.WLB→ Yaya Diaby

David WalkerSLB→ Al-Quadin Muhammad

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

AwayPackers2 next man up · 4 questionable · 3 changes