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Panthers DeskPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack9 min agoLions DeskLions earned 19-9 in Miami, with a defense doing the work and a thin offense19 min agoBrowns DeskBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints30 min agoBills DeskBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rate30 min agoESPNWill Daniel Jones become a Minnesota Vikings player today?InjuryAlec Anderson: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryDion Dawkins: Out → Questionable1 h agoNew York JetsHow Will the Jets Approach the NFL's Trade Deadline?New York JetsMore Amazing Facts from David Bailey's Performance in Kansas CityPro Football RumorsVikings Expected To Explore QB TradeESPNFantasy buzz: James Cook III helps Bills overcome tough Vikings defenseDetroit LionsTWENTYMAN: 5 stats that stand out following Lions' Week 9 victoryESPNSeven things Solak thinks for NFL Week 10: Jaguars trades, All-Pro picks, morePittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10ESPNCommanders running low on time to 'put it all together'New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference8 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared8 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below Averages
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The Verdict2026 · NFC South · through Week 9

Falcons logoAtlanta FalconsThe Verdict

Falcons are 3-6; the play says 2.9 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 0-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Kevin Stefanski kicked away 4 of 7 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 15th of 32+0.13-6 real · 2.9 deserved · 3.6 Pythagorean
Luck points · 9th of 32+6.7fumble bounces +4.3 · opponents' kicks +2.4
Chicken Index · 13th of 3257%Kevin Stefanski · 6.2 expected points lost on 37 graded calls
Flags net · 15th of 32−1.4 WP60 flags for 538 yards against · 65 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Bengals logoBengals54% success · +0.35 EPA/play
3417
Falcons logoFalcons47% success · +0.09 EPA/play

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 10.2, a deserved win probability of 97%.

Deserved marginCIN by 10.2
Real marginCIN by 17
Luck pts CIN+2.5
Luck pts ATL−1.8

The swingQ1 8:55 · CIN · +13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Falcons logoFalcons29% success · −0.57 EPA/play
016
Buccaneers logoBuccaneers42% success · −0.20 EPA/play

Buccaneers earned it: the snaps said Buccaneers by 14.6, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginTB by 14.6
Real marginTB by 16
Luck pts ATL−4.8
Luck pts TB+5.8

The swingQ1 7:35 · ATL · −14 pts of win probability. 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (5-D.London). PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games0-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+4.3 ptsKept 6 of 9 own fumbles; won 6 of 13 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+2.4 ptsOpponents made 14 of 18 field goals against an expected 14.9, and 23 of 24 extra points.
Own kicking−7.9 ptsMade 13 of 18 field goals against 15.6 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.09725th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-4Our pregame model in Falcons games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Kevin Stefanski · 37 graded fourth downs · went for it 12×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.2 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1ATL · 4th & 1Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 16, Wk 8 Q3 11:24, down 9. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  2. 2ATL · 4th & 2Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q1 2:39, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP
  3. 3ATL · 4th & 6Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 32, Wk 8 Q2 12:39, down 6. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.83 EP
  4. 4ATL · 4th & 12Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at opp 41, Wk 4 Q1 10:25, up 7. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
  5. 5ATL · 4th & 2Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 32, Wk 8 Q1 2:28, down 6. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP
  6. 6ATL · 4th & 1Kevin Stefanski chose Field goal at opp 24, Wk 1 Q4 10:39, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.64 EP
  7. 7ATL · 4th & 3Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 28, Wk 6 Q3 10:38, down 14. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: stopped.−0.32 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1ATL · 4th & 1Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 39, Wk 8 Q1 12:07, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2ATL · 4th & 1Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 31, Wk 2 Q1 0:46, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  3. 3ATL · 4th & 2Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 39, Wk 5 Q3 3:47, up 2. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 13 · opp 13 · Q1 3:009Field goalField goal0.94–2.84✓good
4th & 6 · own 35 · Q2 10:539PuntPunt-1.09-0.83–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 46 · Q2 1:059Puntnot graded-0.24-0.43–punted
4th & 12 · opp 20 · Q4 11:319Field goalnot graded1.25–2.65missed
4th & 15 · own 2 · Q4 7:579Puntnot graded-4.13-2.94–punted
4th & 1 · opp 39 · Q1 12:078Go for itGo for it2.09-0.140.88✓converted
4th & 8 · opp 35 · Q1 10:008Field goalField goal0.56-0.111.46✓missed
4th & 2 · own 32 · Q1 2:288PuntGo for it-0.29-0.96–−0.67punted
4th & 6 · opp 32 · Q2 12:398Go for itField goal0.99-0.111.82−0.83stopped
4th & 1 · opp 36 · Q2 1:308Go for itnot graded2.29-0.121.32stopped
4th & 1 · own 16 · Q3 11:248PuntGo for it-0.72-1.87–−1.15punted
4th & 4 · own 36 · Q3 7:188PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.67-0.79–−0.12punted
4th & 4 · opp 46 · Q3 1:448Go for itnot graded0.45-0.24-0.34converted
4th & 1 · opp 30 · Q4 15:008Go for itnot graded2.69-0.112.02converted
4th & 10 · own 12 · Q4 7:098Puntnot graded-3.06-2.14–punted
4th & 2 · opp 14 · Q4 3:158Go for itnot graded3.24–2.82stopped
4th & 7 · opp 21 · Q1 7:107Field goalField goal1.59–2.61✓good
4th & 5 · own 16 · Q1 1:417PuntPunt-2.17-1.87–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 15 · Q2 0:027Field goalnot graded3.77–2.80good
4th & 5 · own 32 · Q4 9:407Puntnot graded-1.12-0.96–punted
4th & 12 · own 33 · Q4 4:087Puntnot graded-1.76-0.92–punted
4th & 4 · opp 13 · Q4 2:007Field goalnot graded2.66–2.84good
4th & 9 · own 19 · Q1 6:486PuntPunt-2.48-1.67–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 27 · Q2 14:576PuntPunt-1.84-1.21–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 43 · Q2 9:296Go for itGo for it (toss-up)0.44-0.190.20✓stopped
4th & 7 · own 35 · Q2 0:566Puntnot graded-1.22-0.83–punted
4th & 3 · opp 28 · Q3 10:386Go for itField goal1.87–2.19−0.32stopped
4th & 14 · own 2 · Q3 4:436Puntnot graded-4.08-2.94–punted
4th & 10 · own 34 · Q4 14:386Go for itnot graded-1.56-0.87–stopped
4th & 6 · own 21 · Q1 9:415PuntPunt-2.00-1.55–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 40 · Q1 2:395PuntGo for it0.20-0.63–−0.83punted
4th & 5 · own 8 · Q2 10:485PuntPunt-2.74-2.44–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q3 9:555Field goalField goal2.17–2.93✓good
4th & 2 · opp 39 · Q3 3:475Go for itGo for it1.51-0.140.88✓stopped
4th & 9 · opp 16 · Q4 8:065Field goalField goal1.73–2.78✓good
4th & 5 · opp 30 · Q4 2:355Field goalnot graded1.28-0.112.02good
4th & 6 · own 45 · Q4 0:085Puntnot graded-0.46-0.46–punted
4th & 12 · opp 41 · Q1 10:254PuntField goal-0.12-0.160.55−0.71punted
4th & 14 · own 38 · Q1 3:044PuntPunt-1.55-0.71–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 11 · Q2 3:104Field goalField goal2.53–2.87✓good
4th & 11 · own 26 · Q1 10:153PuntPunt-2.16-1.27–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 41 · Q2 10:413PuntField goal (toss-up)0.41-0.160.55−0.71punted
4th & 2 · opp 26 · Q2 4:533Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.38–2.34−0.04good
4th & 7 · opp 13 · Q4 11:003Field goalnot graded2.45–2.84good
4th & 5 · own 21 · Q1 7:292PuntPunt-1.84-1.55–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 31 · Q1 0:462Go for itGo for it2.62-0.111.92✓stopped
4th & 8 · own 31 · Q2 9:402PuntPunt-1.58-1.01–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 23 · Q2 1:112Field goalnot graded1.95–2.52good
4th & 6 · opp 46 · Q4 15:002Puntnot graded0.10-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 17 · opp 35 · Q4 5:502Field goalnot graded0.04-0.111.46missed
4th & 6 · own 46 · Q4 1:052Go for itnot graded-0.40-0.43–converted
4th & 11 · own 16 · Q1 12:161PuntPunt-2.84-1.87–✓punted
4th & 19 · own 40 · Q1 4:491PuntPunt-1.60-0.63–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 47 · Q2 7:481PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.57-0.40–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 36 · Q2 2:381Field goalField goal0.20-0.121.32✓missed
4th & 13 · own 41 · Q2 0:381Puntnot graded-1.31-0.59–punted
4th & 9 · opp 27 · Q3 10:581Field goalField goal0.99–2.27✓missed
4th & 10 · opp 44 · Q3 6:521PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.18-0.200.02−0.22punted
4th & 14 · opp 32 · Q3 1:551Field goalField goal0.35-0.111.82✓good
4th & 1 · opp 24 · Q4 10:391Field goalGo for it3.10–2.46−0.64good
4th & 14 · opp 43 · Q4 4:201Puntnot graded-0.35-0.190.20punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on ATL in Week 1, worth +14 points of win probability to PIT.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped PIT · Wk 1 Q2 14:24 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Wilson. PENALTY on ATL-24-Aj.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 37…+14.4 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped TB · Wk 8 Q1 7:35 · 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards…+14.1 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceATL → helped GB · Wk 3 Q2 4:44 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on ATL-21-M.Hughes, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards,…+8.0 WP
  4. 4Roughing the PasserATL → helped CAR · Wk 2 Q1 12:03 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan to ATL 5 for 26 yards (24-Aj.Terrell). PENALTY on ATL-95-G.Dexter, Roughing…+6.7 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped GB · Wk 3 Q1 8:21 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 32-M.Lloyd pushed ob at ATL 43 for 10 yards (21-M.Hughes). PENALTY on ATL-56-H.Perkins,…+6.6 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1715733.0
Defensive Pass Interference714928.7
Unnecessary Roughness45520.8
False Start5258.7
Roughing the Passer2187.9
Delay of Game4195.7
Neutral Zone Infraction6305.6
Illegal Formation154.6

Flags drawn

  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessPIT → helped ATL · Wk 1 Q3 8:14 · 13-C.Rush pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 41 for 21 yards (22-A.Samuel). PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Unnecessary…+7.1 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceSF → helped ATL · Wk 7 Q3 1:00 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson. PENALTY on SF-25-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards,…+7.1 WP
  3. 3EncroachmentSF → helped ATL · Wk 7 Q2 0:29 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.+7.0 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingPIT → helped ATL · Wk 1 Q3 12:08 · (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson up the middle to PIT 33 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen). PENALTY on PIT-94-Y.Black, Defensive Holding, 5 yards,…+6.2 WP
  5. 5False StartSF → helped ATL · Wk 7 Q4 2:42 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on SF-84-B.Cooks, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 47 - No Play.+5.9 WP

Garbage Time Tax

28.3% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 3rd most of 32

Bottom lineJahan Dotson: 207 of 353 yards (59%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Michael Penix Jr.ATL · passing · 1,444 yds36%
Bijan RobinsonATL · rushing · 880 yds15%
Drake LondonATL · receiving · 706 yds31%
Jahan DotsonATL · receiving · 353 yds59%

Our picks on the Falcons

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Falcons 30% at home against bengals. 34-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Falcons 41% at buccaneers. 0-16 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Falcons 26% at home against 49ers. 20-29 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Falcons 50% at home against bears. 31-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Falcons 43% at home against ravens. 30-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Falcons 40% at saints. 45-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Falcons 32% at packers. 35-14 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Falcons 66% at home against panthers. 34-3 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Atlanta Falcons verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/falcons/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.