Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Cleveland BrownsEnter for a chance to win tickets to Browns vs. Falcons by Take a Minute, Make a Plan, Never Drive ImpairedTexans DeskTexans earned 44-22 win over Chargers, and the snaps say it was no fluke22 min agoPanthers DeskPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack32 min agoNew Orleans SaintsFive things to know about the New Orleans Saints for Tuesday, November 10Lions DeskLions earned 19-9 in Miami, with a defense doing the work and a thin offense42 min agoBrowns DeskBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints53 min agoCincinnati BengalsHow To Watch Steelers vs Bengals on Sunday Night Football: TV, Streaming and Radio InformationBills DeskBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rate53 min agoNew Orleans SaintsMorning Break: Saints turn attention to NFC South matchup with first place at stakeAtlanta FalconsKevin Stefanski says 'all of us have to step up' after Jessie Bates tradeESPNWill Daniel Jones become a Minnesota Vikings player today?InjuryAlec Anderson: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryDion Dawkins: Out → Questionable1 h agoNew York JetsHow Will the Jets Approach the NFL's Trade Deadline?New York JetsMore Amazing Facts from David Bailey's Performance in Kansas CityPro Football RumorsVikings Expected To Explore QB TradeESPNFantasy buzz: James Cook III helps Bills overcome tough Vikings defenseDetroit LionsTWENTYMAN: 5 stats that stand out following Lions' Week 9 victoryESPNSeven things Solak thinks for NFL Week 10: Jaguars trades, All-Pro picks, morePittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10ESPNCommanders running low on time to 'put it all together'Broncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference8 h ago
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabOne play, two worlds

Sliding Doors

Every game has a moment that could have gone either way. We find it: the fumble that bounced wrong, the kick that hooked, the fourth down that came up a yard short. Then we flip it and measure the other world. 63 of 136 games this season turned on a single play like that.

136 games · 135 doorsRobbed & LuckyJSON

Bottom lineIn 63 of 136 games this season, flipping one play would have made the losing team the likely winner.

How to read this chart
The line is win probability:
the chance, minute by minute, that each team wins the game, from our model. Line at the top = the home team (named top left) is winning; at the bottom = the away team. The faint middle line is 50/50; the vertical lines split the quarters.
The dot is the coin-flip play
(a fumble, a kick, a fourth down, an interception). The big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it
to see the other world: the purple branch shows where the chance would have gone if that one play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
26@30Week 3Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Rams after the play27%what really happened
BroncosRamsthe rest never happened

Q4 5:01 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The season's biggest

Doors that changed games

Tap Flip it on any card
17@19Week 5Changes the winner

If the 57-yard kick had missed

Eagles after the play0%what really happened
JaguarsEaglesthe rest never happened

Q4 0:01 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

24@28Week 8Changes the winner

If the Chiefs had converted that fourth-and-6

Chiefs after the play0%what really happened
BroncosChiefsthe rest never happened

Q4 0:04 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

30@31Week 1Changes the winner

If the Saints kicker had made it from 62

Saints after the play45%what really happened
LionsSaintsthe rest never happened

Q4 0:02 10-D.Carlson 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

7@12Week 3Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Titans after the play3%what really happened
GiantsTitansthe rest never happened

Q4 0:24 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback. PENALTY on NYG-3-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

26@14Week 2Changes the winner

If the Chargers had fallen on their own fumble

Chargers after the play14%what really happened
ChargersRaidersthe rest never happened

Q4 3:52 8-O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-11-J.Chinn at LV 41. 11-J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (10-J.Herbert).

16@24Week 3Changes the winner

If the Chargers had stopped that fourth-and-6

Chargers after the play42%what really happened
BillsChargersthe rest never happened

Q4 11:15 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.

12@17Week 5Changes the winner

If the Browns had recovered that fumble

Browns after the play29%what really happened
JetsBrownsthe rest never happened

Q2 3:52 32-I.Davis right tackle to 50 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-7-G.Smith at 50.

18@16Week 6Changes the winner

If the 43-yard kick had missed

Rams after the play0%what really happened
RamsCardinalsthe rest never happened

Q4 0:03 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

23@19Week 2Changes the winner

If the Buccaneers had converted that fourth-and-11

Buccaneers after the play4%what really happened
BuccaneersBrownsthe rest never happened

Q4 0:22 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.

26@19Week 6Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Buccaneers after the play19%what really happened
BuccaneersSteelersthe rest never happened

Q4 1:46 10-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 43. 35-J.Dean pushed ob at TB 3 for 40 yards (10-J.Daniels).

24@19Week 8Changes the winner

If the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-3

Dolphins after the play47%what really happened
DolphinsPatriotsthe rest never happened

Q2 5:04 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to MIA 29 for 12 yards (11-D.Trader).

27@27Week 5Changes the winner

If the Giants had fallen on their own fumble

Giants after the play45%what really happened
CommandersGiantsthe rest never happened

Q5 2:00 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-96-S.Tuttle at WAS 23.

Who the doors hit

Doors slammed shut, by team

Sum of each loss's top swing, in win probability

Bottom lineHit hardest: Buccaneers, with 5 doors slammed shut.

How to read this chart
One row = one team.
The line in the middle is zero.
Purple bar, to the left:
how much win probability one flipped play could have given the team, added up over the games it lost. Longer = more games lost on a bounce.
Gold bar, to the right:
the same in games it won: luck that went its way.
Doors
on the right counts losses that one flip would have turned into a likely win.
Buccaneers5 doorsRams3 doorsJets4 doorsEagles2 doorsTitans4 doorsColts2 doorsCowboys3 doorsChargers3 doorsSeahawks3 doorsTexans2 doorsDolphins3 doorsSaints1 doorRavens3 doorsChiefs2 doorsCommanders1 doorRaiders4 doorsPanthers–Falcons2 doorsBrowns3 doorsPatriots3 doorsPackers1 doorCardinals1 doorBengals–Jaguars2 doorsSteelers1 doorBroncos2 doorsLions2 doorsVikings–Bears–Bills–49ers–Giants–

Against them: how far the swing play could have lifted them in games they lost. For them: the same in games they won. Doors = losses that one flip would have turned into a likely win.

Every game

The door in every game

Made kick 48 · Fourth down converted 25 · Fourth down stopped 20 · Interception 15 · Fumble kept 14 · Fumble lost 8 · Missed kick 5
How to read the list
Each line is a game:
the score, the kind of play, what happened, and two numbers.
For example 38→71%
would mean the losing team had a 38% chance to win right after the real play, and 71% if it had gone the other way. Highlighted numbers are the plays that would have changed the likely winner.

Week 9

  1. JAX 33@10 BALMade kickIf the 36-yard kick had missed38→44%
  2. CIN 34@17 ATLMade kickIf the 57-yard kick had missed14→25%
  3. CLE 22@23 NOFourth down stoppedIf the Browns had converted that fourth-and-145→72%
  4. DAL 27@23 INDFumble lostIf the Colts had fallen on their own fumble31→56%
  5. DEN 26@21 CARFumble lostIf the Panthers had fallen on their own fumble3→36%
  6. DET 19@9 MIAMade kickIf the 43-yard kick had missed7→24%
  7. LAR 20@13 WSHFourth down stoppedIf the Commanders had converted that fourth-and-172→26%
  8. NYG 19@11 PHIFumble keptIf the Eagles had recovered that fumble18→41%
  9. NYJ 12@35 KCFumble keptIf the Jets had recovered that fumble31→53%
  10. HOU 44@22 LACMade kickIf the 56-yard kick had missed38→49%
  11. LV 17@38 SFFourth down convertedIf the Raiders had stopped that fourth-and-240→57%
  12. ARI 3@17 SEAMade kickIf the 45-yard kick had missed7→15%
  13. GB 45@27 NEInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete38→51%
  14. TB 24@27 CHIMade kickIf the 38-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  15. BUF 23@6 MINFourth down convertedIf the Vikings had stopped that fourth-and-19→28%

Week 8

  1. CAR 19@27 GBFumble keptIf the Panthers had recovered that fumble11→26%
  2. ARI 33@30 DALMade kickIf the 42-yard kick had missed0→61%
  3. ATL 0@16 TBMade kickIf the 46-yard kick had missed34→55%
  4. BAL 10@36 BUFMade kickIf the 51-yard kick had missed21→37%
  5. CLE 6@27 PITFumble keptIf the Browns had recovered that fumble14→28%
  6. IND 7@42 JAXFumble lostIf the Colts had fallen on their own fumble17→29%
  7. LV 38@33 NYJMade kickIf the 53-yard kick had missed10→50%
  8. MIN 15@19 DETFourth down stoppedIf the Vikings had converted that fourth-and-523→42%
  9. TEN 36@43 CINFourth down stoppedIf the Titans had converted that fourth-and-30→18%
  10. LAC 9@24 LARInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete28→48%
  11. KC 24@28 DENFourth down stoppedIf the Chiefs had converted that fourth-and-60→99%
  12. NE 24@19 MIAFourth down convertedIf the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-347→74%
  13. PHI 10@27 WSHMade kickIf the 42-yard kick had missed6→22%
  14. CHI 34@17 SEAFourth down convertedIf the Seahawks had stopped that fourth-and-145→66%

Week 7

  1. NE 24@30 CHIFourth down stoppedIf the Patriots had converted that fourth-and-535→56%
  2. PIT 16@10 NOMade kickIf the 39-yard kick had missed27→47%
  3. CIN 35@13 BALFourth down stoppedIf the Ravens had converted that fourth-and-246→70%
  4. CLE 27@24 TENMade kickIf the 32-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  5. IND 10@16 MINMissed kickIf the Colts kicker had made it from 4819→39%
  6. MIA 28@25 NYJFourth down convertedIf the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-15→42%
  7. NYG 27@21 HOUFourth down convertedIf the Texans had stopped that fourth-and-250→74%
  8. SF 20@29 ATLMade kickIf the 33-yard kick had missed51→72%
  9. TB 43@13 CARFumble keptIf the Panthers had recovered that fumble12→18%
  10. DEN 30@16 ARIMade kickIf the 43-yard kick had missed39→51%
  11. GB 17@20 DETMade kickIf the 22-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  12. LAR 35@21 LVMissed kickIf the Raiders kicker had made it from 5148→58%
  13. KC 3@20 SEAMade kickIf the 25-yard kick had missed34→52%
  14. DAL 38@21 PHIInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete5→20%

Week 6

  1. SEA 14@17 DENMade kickIf the 53-yard kick had missed0→61%
  2. HOU 34@31 JAXMade kickIf the 49-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  3. BAL 10@13 CLEMade kickIf the 37-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  4. CAR 25@14 PHIFourth down convertedIf the Eagles had stopped that fourth-and-113→35%
  5. CHI 31@23 ATLFourth down stoppedIf the Falcons had converted that fourth-and-39→17%
  6. NO 34@27 NYGMade kickIf the 58-yard kick had missed76→90%
  7. NYJ 19@26 NEFourth down convertedIf the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-122→44%
  8. PIT 26@19 TBInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete19→52%
  9. TEN 26@20 INDFourth down stoppedIf the Colts had converted that fourth-and-174→44%
  10. ARI 18@16 LARMade kickIf the 43-yard kick had missed0→99%
  11. BUF 33@30 LVMade kickIf the 47-yard kick had missed44→62%
  12. LAC 6@22 KCFumble keptIf the Chargers had recovered that fumble22→38%
  13. DAL 13@23 GBFourth down convertedIf the Cowboys had stopped that fourth-and-310→21%
  14. WSH 17@23 SFFourth down stoppedIf the Commanders had converted that fourth-and-33→34%

Week 5

  1. TB 24@16 DALInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete1→25%
  2. PHI 17@19 JAXMade kickIf the 57-yard kick had missed0→99%
  3. CIN 31@24 MIAMade kickIf the 26-yard kick had missed1→6%
  4. CLE 12@17 NYJFumble keptIf the Browns had recovered that fumble29→55%
  5. HOU 26@3 TENMade kickIf the 53-yard kick had missed22→40%
  6. IND 22@34 PITFourth down convertedIf the Colts had stopped that fourth-and-116→42%
  7. LV 17@45 NEFourth down convertedIf the Raiders had stopped that fourth-and-235→58%
  8. MIN 23@13 NOMade kickIf the 55-yard kick had missed9→32%
  9. NYG 27@27 WSHFumble lostIf the Giants had fallen on their own fumble45→71%
  10. CHI 7@31 GBFumble keptIf the Bears had recovered that fumble18→34%
  11. DEN 23@17 LACMade kickIf the 36-yard kick had missed14→36%
  12. DET 45@21 ARIFourth down convertedIf the Cardinals had stopped that fourth-and-368→84%
  13. SF 32@29 SEAFourth down stoppedIf the Seahawks had converted that fourth-and-105→50%
  14. BAL 30@23 ATLFourth down stoppedIf the Falcons had converted that fourth-and-256→74%
  15. BUF 37@34 LARMade kickIf the 45-yard kick had missed0→66%

Week 4

  1. PIT 24@27 CLEMade kickIf the 56-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime9→50%
  2. IND 30@13 WSHMade kickIf the 48-yard kick had missed40→62%
  3. ARI 24@36 NYGMade kickIf the 39-yard kick had missed57→77%
  4. DAL 34@30 HOUFourth down convertedIf the Texans had stopped that fourth-and-469→92%
  5. GB 17@14 TBFourth down stoppedIf the Buccaneers had converted that fourth-and-116→52%
  6. JAX 22@17 CINFourth down stoppedIf the Bengals had converted that fourth-and-103→46%
  7. LAR 24@20 PHIMade kickIf the 40-yard kick had missed55→71%
  8. NE 29@26 BUFInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete8→35%
  9. NYJ 12@23 CHIFourth down convertedIf the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-132→51%
  10. TEN 18@24 BALInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete30→53%
  11. MIA 10@15 MINFourth down convertedIf the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-121→45%
  12. DEN 14@24 SFFourth down convertedIf the Broncos had stopped that fourth-and-132→52%
  13. KC 30@27 LVFumble keptIf the Raiders had recovered that fumble11→44%
  14. LAC 23@30 SEAFumble keptIf the Chargers had recovered that fumble6→14%
  15. DET 26@32 CARFourth down convertedIf the Lions had stopped that fourth-and-426→51%

Week 3

  1. ATL 35@14 GBFourth down stoppedIf the Packers had converted that fourth-and-118→34%
  2. CAR 18@21 CLEFourth down stoppedIf the Panthers had converted that fourth-and-163→31%
  3. CIN 27@30 PITFumble lostIf the Bengals had fallen on their own fumble3→34%
  4. HOU 17@19 INDMade kickIf the 53-yard kick had missed18→71%
  5. KC 24@10 MIAMade kickIf the 34-yard kick had missed19→40%
  6. LAC 16@24 BUFFourth down convertedIf the Chargers had stopped that fourth-and-642→72%
  7. NYJ 24@31 DETFourth down convertedIf the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-240→63%
  8. SEA 31@33 WSHInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete5→34%
  9. TEN 7@12 NYGInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete3→50%
  10. NE 6@35 JAXFumble lostIf the Patriots had fallen on their own fumble43→54%
  11. ARI 30@36 SFMade kickIf the 57-yard kick had missed12→26%
  12. MIN 23@16 TBMade kickIf the 56-yard kick had missed28→63%
  13. BAL 34@31 DALMade kickIf the 56-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  14. LV 35@27 NOInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete22→41%
  15. LAR 26@30 DENInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete27→68%
  16. PHI 7@27 CHIFourth down convertedIf the Eagles had stopped that fourth-and-134→54%

Week 2

  1. DET 31@41 BUFFumble keptIf the Lions had recovered that fumble47→63%
  2. CAR 34@3 ATLFumble lostIf the Falcons had fallen on their own fumble40→57%
  3. CIN 20@6 HOUMade kickIf the 51-yard kick had missed29→47%
  4. CLE 23@19 TBFourth down stoppedIf the Buccaneers had converted that fourth-and-114→66%
  5. GB 20@17 NYJMade kickIf the 26-yard kick had missed0→59%
  6. MIN 9@3 CHIMade kickIf the 39-yard kick had missed14→35%
  7. NO 24@17 BALFourth down convertedIf the Ravens had stopped that fourth-and-144→65%
  8. PHI 24@20 TENFourth down convertedIf the Titans had stopped that fourth-and-243→65%
  9. PIT 3@20 NEMade kickIf the 45-yard kick had missed14→26%
  10. JAX 13@20 DENMissed kickIf the Jaguars kicker had made it from 5439→52%
  11. LV 26@14 LACFumble lostIf the Chargers had fallen on their own fumble14→51%
  12. MIA 13@35 SFMissed kickIf the Dolphins kicker had made it from 5136→52%
  13. SEA 31@7 ARIMade kickIf the 33-yard kick had missed21→30%
  14. WSH 20@37 DALMade kickIf the 44-yard kick had missed23→36%
  15. IND 30@33 KCMade kickIf the 40-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime0→50%
  16. NYG 6@28 LARFumble keptIf the Giants had recovered that fumble2→6%

Week 1

  1. NE 10@13 SEAInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete5→43%
  2. SF 27@7 LARFourth down stoppedIf the Rams had converted that fourth-and-118→36%
  3. ATL 13@20 PITInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete14→33%
  4. BAL 41@23 INDInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete35→47%
  5. BUF 36@31 HOUFumble keptIf the Texans had recovered that fumble57→85%
  6. CHI 59@37 CARFourth down stoppedIf the Panthers had converted that fourth-and-317→36%
  7. CLE 10@34 JAXInterceptionIf that interception had fallen incomplete36→55%
  8. NO 30@31 DETMissed kickIf the Saints kicker had made it from 6245→99%
  9. NYJ 23@10 TENFourth down convertedIf the Titans had stopped that fourth-and-232→47%
  10. TB 27@33 CINMade kickIf the 58-yard kick had missed14→32%
  11. ARI 26@14 LACMade kickIf the 44-yard kick had missed33→53%
  12. GB 22@39 MINFourth down stoppedIf the Packers had converted that fourth-and-168→85%
  13. MIA 13@27 LVFourth down convertedIf the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-130→55%
  14. WSH 22@24 PHIMade kickIf the 35-yard kick had missed16→29%
  15. DAL 20@28 NYGFumble keptIf the Cowboys had recovered that fumble32→55%
  16. DEN 10@31 KCFourth down convertedIf the Broncos had stopped that fourth-and-230→56%
MethodHow this is built
Which plays
Plays with a binary outcome that could plausibly have gone the other way: a lost or recovered fumble, an interception (flipped to an incompletion), a field goal or extra point (made or missed), a fourth-down try (converted or stopped).
The other world
We rebuild the state right after the play with the outcome flipped (score, possession, down, distance, field position, clock, timeouts) and price it with two models fitted on this season's play-by-play: expected points by down, distance and field position (R² 0.95) and win probability from margin, expected points, time and timeouts (R² 0.97 on 16,554 snaps). With the clock at zero only the score counts; a tie means overtime, a coin flip.
What it is not
The rest of the game never happened: the number is the win probability in the instant after the play, not a prediction of the final score.
Whose door
Always told from the side of the team that lost: the play that would have helped it most.