Bills 36, Texans 31: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · Reliant StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
BUF	3	21	3	9	36
HOU	7	14	0	10	31

Home · 3-5HoustonTexans31

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Houston Texans 36-31 on Sun, Sep 13 at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bills 7-1, Texans 3-5. J.Allen (BUF) led all players with +16.9 EPA on 33 dropbacks.

Who won Bills vs Texans?

The Buffalo Bills won 36-31. By quarter: BUF 3-21-3-9, HOU 7-14-0-10.

Who was the best player in Bills vs Texans?

By expected points added: J.Allen (BUF, +16.9 EPA on 33 dropbacks), D.Kincaid (BUF, +7.6 EPA on 6 targets) and D.Moore (BUF, +6.4 EPA on 8 targets).

What was the turning point of Bills vs Texans?

The biggest swing in win probability (41 points toward the Bills) came in Q4 at 0:25: (Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (D.Walker).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bills 36, Texans 31: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-13-buf-at-hou (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1Coin flipGame file →

Bills40% success · +0.14 EPA/play

3631

Texans47% success · +0.09 EPA/play

BUF 45% deserveddeserved 55% HOU

Bills won a coin flip: the snaps had it 45% for Bills.

Deserved marginHOU by 0.6

Real marginBUF by 5

Luck pts BUF+6.4

Luck pts HOU−8.8

The swingQ4 1:41 · BUF · +32 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceHOU → helped BUF · Wk 1 Q2 4:13 · 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46…+14.8 WP
2Illegal Blindside BlockBUF → helped HOU · Wk 1 Q3 13:19 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover;…+9.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1HOU · 4th & 2DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 39, Wk 1 Q2 2:22, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.81 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA148 plays, one strand8 lead changes · 14 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Moore17 accepted flags in this game · 16.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 1.5 · Snaps: HOU by 0.6Bills covered; the snaps say Texans should have

36@31

Week 1

If the Texans had recovered that fumble

Texans after the play57%what really happened

Q4 3:13 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

HOU ▲BUF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+41%Q4 0:25 · for BUF(Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (D.Walker).
+40%Q4 1:36 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
+24%Q4 0:35 · for HOU(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
+19%Q4 0:30 · for HOU(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
+18%Q4 6:44 · for HOUK.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.

Every drive, on the field

HOU attacks →← BUF attacks

Q1 15:00DOWNS7p · 30y · 3:45
Q1 11:15FUM3p · -4y · 1:43
Q1 9:32FG4p · 4y · 2:04
Q1 7:28TD12p · 76y · 6:56
Q1 0:32TD6p · 62y · 2:46
Q2 12:46TD13p · 75y · 7:58
Q2 4:48TD3p · 65y · 0:49
Q2 3:59PUNT3p · 13y · 1:49
Q2 2:10TD3p · 96y · 0:41
Q2 1:29TD4p · 86y · 1:03
Q2 0:26HALF2p · 3y · 0:26
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · -10y · 1:50
Q3 13:10PUNT6p · 19y · 3:44
Q3 9:26PUNT3p · 5y · 1:28
Q3 7:58FG6p · 27y · 3:34
Q3 4:24TD13p · 72y · 5:50
Q4 13:34FG7p · 52y · 3:03
Q4 10:31FG7p · 26y · 3:47
Q4 6:44PUNT3p · -2y · 1:05
Q4 5:39PUNT3p · 1y · 2:26
Q4 3:13TD7p · 96y · 1:37
Q4 1:36FUM10p · 47y · 1:27
Q4 0:09END1p · -1y · 0:09

Bills10 drives7scoring drives (4 TD)70%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Texans11 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position4three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:28Field goalT.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.3–0
Q1
0:32TouchdownD.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.3–7
Q2
12:46Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.10–7
Q2
4:48Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.10–14
Q2
3:59TouchdownJ.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.17–14
Q2
1:29Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.24–14
Q2
0:26Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.24–21
Q3
4:24Field goalT.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.27–21
Q4
13:34Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.27–28
Q4
10:31Field goalT.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.30–28
Q4
6:44Field goalK.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.30–31
Q4
1:36Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.36–31

Team stats

BUFvsHOU

409Total yards381

323Passing yards257

86Rushing yards124

7.9Yards per play5.2

20First downs26

3-9 · 33%Third down7-16 · 44%

0-1Fourth down2-2

1-3Red zone TDs4-5

20/29Comp / att26/38

4.1Yards per carry3.9

0Turnovers2

2 (−11 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−17 yds)

10 for 85Penalties7 for 106

23:43Possession36:17

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.229+0.069

Dropback EPA+0.513+0.097

Rush EPA-0.263+0.030

Success rate40%47%

Explosive plays88

Plays5273

Who moved the needle

J.AllenDropbacks: 33+16.9

D.KincaidTargets: 6+7.6

D.MooreTargets: 8+6.4

N.CollinsTargets: 10+4.9

C.StroudDropbacks: 42+4.1

D.MontgomeryTargets: 3+2.6

Cost their side the most

J.AllenCarries: 5-4.7

D.SchultzTargets: 8-2.5

J.CookTargets: 4-0.4

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	20/29	334	11.5	2	0	2-11	76.8	130.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	13	57	4.4	0	12
Josh AllenQB	6	23	3.8	2	21
Ray DavisRB	1	3	3.0	0	3
Frank Gore Jr.RB	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Dalton KincaidTE	5	6	130	26.0	0	40
DJ MooreWR	5	8	100	20.0	1	43
Khalil ShakirWR	4	6	50	12.5	0	19
Joshua PalmerWR	1	2	34	34.0	1	34
James Cook IIIRB	3	4	12	4.0	0	6
Dawson KnoxTE	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Keon ColemanWR	1	1	1	1.0	0	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Terrel BernardLB	12	6	0	1	0	0
Dorian WilliamsLB	9	4	0	1	0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	8	6	0	0	0	0
Cole BishopS	7	2	0	0	0	0
Deone WalkerDT	6	3	1	2	0	1
Christian BenfordCB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Ed OliverDT	5	2	0	1	0	1
Michael HoechtDE	5	1	0	0	0	0
Greg RousseauLB	4	4	2	2	1	5
Javon SolomonLB	4	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	3/3	100.0	46	3/3	12

Houston Texans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
C.J. StroudQB	26/38	274	7.2	2	0	3-17	63.7	106.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
David MontgomeryRB	20	60	3.0	2	18
Woody MarksRB	9	42	4.7	0	12
C.J. StroudQB	2	15	7.5	0	15
Nico CollinsWR	1	7	7.0	0	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Nico CollinsWR	7	10	75	10.7	1	25
Jaylin NoelWR	2	2	53	26.5	0	35
Dalton SchultzTE	4	8	35	8.8	0	18
Xavier HutchinsonWR	3	6	32	10.7	0	20
Kayshon BoutteWR	1	2	21	21.0	0	21
David MontgomeryRB	3	3	19	6.3	1	9
Marlin KleinTE	1	1	16	16.0	0	16
Foster MoreauTE	2	2	15	7.5	0	9
Jared WayneWR	1	1	12	12.0	0	12
Cade StoverTE	1	1	-2	-2.0	0	-2
Woody MarksRB	1	1	-2	-2.0	0	-2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Azeez Al-ShaairLB	8	5	0	1	0	0
Reed BlankenshipS	7	4	0	0	0	0
Calen BullockS	6	5	0	0	1	0
Jalen PitreS	6	4	0	0	1	0
Derek Stingley Jr.CB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Kamari LassiterCB	3	1	0	1	1	0
Will Anderson Jr.DE	3	1	0.5	0	0	1
Sheldon RankinsDT	3	0	0	0	1	0
Tommy TogiaiDT	2	1	0	0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'oLB	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ka'imi FairbairnPK	1/1	100.0	58	4/4	7

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Alec AndersonLG→ Tylan Grable

T.J. SandersLDE→ Landon Jackson

Davison IgbinosunRCB→ Maxwell Hairston

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR→ Kayshon Boutte

Jake HansenSLB→ Logan Hall

AwayBills1 next man up · 2 questionable · 3 changes