Seahawks 14, Broncos 17: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Thu, Oct 15 · Empower Field at Mile HighFinal/OT

Final

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
SEA	3	0	0	11	0	14
DEN	0	14	0	0	3	17

Home · 7-2DenverBroncos17

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 1:25 AM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Seattle Seahawks 17-14 on Thu, Oct 15 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Seahawks 5-4, Broncos 7-2. J.Smith-Njigba (SEA) led all players with +11.4 EPA on 16 targets.

Who won Seahawks vs Broncos?

The Denver Broncos won 17-14. By quarter: SEA 3-0-0-11-0, DEN 0-14-0-0-3.

Who was the best player in Seahawks vs Broncos?

By expected points added: J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, +11.4 EPA on 16 targets), R.Harvey (DEN, +2.3 EPA on 6 carries) and R.Harvey (DEN, +2.1 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Seahawks vs Broncos?

The biggest swing in win probability (38 points toward the Broncos) came in Q4 at 1:31: (No Huddle) S.Darnold pass short left intended for T.Horton INTERCEPTED by K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (T.Horton).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Seahawks 14, Broncos 17: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-15-sea-at-den (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6Coin flipGame file →

Seahawks40% success · −0.07 EPA/play

1417

Broncos29% success · −0.17 EPA/play

SEA 68% deserveddeserved 32% DEN

Broncos won as the underdog of the snaps: 32%, with Seahawks better by 2.5.

Deserved marginSEA by 2.5

Real marginDEN by 3

Luck pts SEA−4.9

Luck pts DEN+5.2

The swingQ4 1:31 · SEA · −35 pts of win probability. (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).

Flags that moved this game

1Face MaskSEA → helped DEN · Wk 6 Q2 9:07 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 8 yards (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15…+6.9 WP
2Offensive HoldingSEA → helped DEN · Wk 6 OT 10:00 · 3-W.Lutz kicks 57 yards from DEN 35 to SEA 8. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, and recovers at SEA 12. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 23 for 11…+5.9 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA164 plays, one strand1 lead change · 5 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Rogers15 accepted flags in this game · 12 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: SEA by 2.5 · Snaps: SEA by 2.5Broncos covered; the snaps say it should have been a push

14@17

Week 6Changes the winner

If the 53-yard kick had missed

Seahawks after the play0%what really happened

Q5 4:57 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-13-E.Jones, Leverage, declined.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DEN ▲SEA ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The five biggest swings

+38%Q4 1:31 · for DEN(No Huddle) S.Darnold pass short left intended for T.Horton INTERCEPTED by K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (T.Horton).
+20%OT 5:40 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix right end to SEA 35 for no gain (T.Knight).
+18%Q4 2:42 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep middle to J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 48 for 32 yards (B.Jones).
+18%Q4 0:25 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short middle to C.Kupp to DEN 23 for 17 yards (J.McMillian).
+12%Q4 1:59 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 39 for 8 yards (T.Rapp).

Every drive, on the field

DEN attacks →← SEA attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT8p · 20y · 5:01
Q1 9:59PUNT3p · 2y · 1:30
Q1 8:29FG6p · 18y · 1:58
Q1 6:31TD16p · 74y · 8:39
Q2 12:52PUNT6p · 11y · 3:05
Q2 9:47TD9p · 79y · 4:32
Q2 5:15FUM6p · 27y · 2:51
Q2 2:24PUNT3p · 4y · 0:41
Q2 1:43PUNT5p · 20y · 0:56
Q2 0:47HALF1p · -5y · 0:47
Q3 15:00PUNT4p · 9y · 2:15
Q3 12:45MISS9p · 55y · 4:15
Q3 8:30PUNT3p · 4y · 0:44
Q3 7:46PUNT7p · 13y · 4:25
Q3 3:21PUNT3p · 3y · 1:41
Q3 1:40PUNT8p · 30y · 3:48
Q4 12:52PUNT5p · 18y · 3:34
Q4 9:18TD11p · 67y · 3:37
Q4 5:41PUNT3p · -10y · 2:17
Q4 3:24INT5p · 35y · 1:59
Q4 1:25PUNT3p · 2y · 0:28
Q4 0:57FG8p · 38y · 0:54
Q4 0:03HALF1p · -1y · 0:03
Q5 10:00INT6p · 15y · 2:49
Q5 7:11FG4p · 8y · 2:18

Seahawks12 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)25%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position0three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Broncos11 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)27%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position6three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
6:31Field goal J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.3–0
Q2
12:52TouchdownJ.Dobbins right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.3–7
Q2
5:15Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. Direct snap to R.Harvey. R.Harvey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.3–14
Q4
5:41Touchdown(No Huddle) G.Holani right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. S.Darnold pass to R.Shaheed is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.11–14
Q4
0:03Field goalJ.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.14–14
OT
4:53Field goal W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on SEA-E.Jones, Leverage, declined.14–17

Team stats

SEAvsDEN

353Total yards168

240Passing yards94

113Rushing yards74

4.3Yards per play2.9

24First downs13

7-17 · 41%Third down3-14 · 21%

1-1Fourth down1-1

1-2Red zone TDs2-2

27/51Comp / att17/27

4.3Yards per carry2.6

3Turnovers0

5 (−38 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−13 yds)

7 for 75Penalties8 for 42

35:38Possession29:29

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.087-0.144

Dropback EPA-0.085-0.208

Rush EPA-0.093-0.069

Success rate40%29%

Explosive plays61

Plays8156

Who moved the needle

J.Smith-NjigbaTargets: 16+11.4

R.HarveyCarries: 6+2.3

R.HarveyTargets: 4+2.1

G.HolaniCarries: 5+1.1

R.ShaheedTargets: 9+1.1

C.SuttonTargets: 3+1.0

Cost their side the most

B.NixDropbacks: 30-6.2

S.DarnoldDropbacks: 57-4.8

J.DobbinsCarries: 17-4.7

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Sam DarnoldQB	27/51	278	5.5	0	2	5-38	58.5	52.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Emanuel WilsonRB	14	52	3.7	0	11
George HolaniRB	5	20	4.0	1	13
Velus Jones Jr.RB	4	20	5.0	0	9
Sam DarnoldQB	2	19	9.5	0	18
Rashid ShaheedWR	1	2	2.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	12	16	134	11.2	32
Rashid ShaheedWR	5	8	66	13.2	42
Cooper KuppWR	5	10	50	10.0	17
AJ BarnerTE	3	4	16	5.3	11
Tory HortonWR	1	5	13	13.0	13
Eric SaubertTE	0	1	0	0.0	0
Emanuel WilsonRB	0	1	0	0.0	0
Velus Jones Jr.RB	1	1	-1	-1.0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Ernest Jones IVLB	9	5	1	1	0	0
Tyrice KnightLB	8	5	0	0	0	0
Nick EmmanworiS	7	4	1	1	0	2
Leonard WilliamsDT	5	4	0	1	0	1
Ty OkadaS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Devon WitherspoonCB	5	2	0	0	2	0
Josh JobeCB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Julian LoveS	3	2	0	0	1	0
Byron Murphy IIDT	3	1	0	0	0	0
Derick HallLB	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason MyersPK	2/3	66.7	55	0/0	6

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	17/27	107	4.0	0	0	2-13	28.0	71.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
J.K. DobbinsRB	17	41	2.4	1	16
RJ HarveyRB	6	25	4.2	1	9
Tyler BadieRB	1	6	6.0	0	6
Bo NixQB	4	2	0.5	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
RJ HarveyRB	3	4	31	10.3	16
Jaylen WaddleWR	4	7	24	6.0	8
Courtland SuttonWR	2	3	19	9.5	10
Evan EngramTE	2	2	13	6.5	9
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	2	4	13	6.5	8
J.K. DobbinsRB	3	3	5	1.7	4
Troy FranklinWR	1	1	2	2.0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	13	4	0	1	0	2
Brandon JonesS	8	3	0	0	0	0
Jahdae BarronCB	7	6	0	0	0	0
Kris Abrams-DraineCB	6	4	0	0	3	0
Taylor RappS	6	1	0	0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	5	5	1	1	2	1
Devon KeyS	5	5	0	0	0	0
Zach AllenDE	5	2	0.5	0	2	1
Justin StrnadLB	4	2	0.5	0	0	1
Nik BonittoLB	4	2	0.5	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	1/1	100.0	53	2/2	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Seahawks defense against big plays vs Broncos big-play offense
The Seahawks' defense against big plays ranks 2nd in explosive-play rate (6.7% allowed, 300 plays faced) and faces a Broncos big-play offense ranked 28th (6.6%, 286 plays).
28thDEN offense26 spots apart2ndSEA defense
2Seahawks pass defense vs Broncos dropback offense
The Seahawks' pass defense ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback (-0.08 allowed, 184 dropbacks faced) and faces a Broncos dropback offense ranked 25th (-0.08, 174 dropbacks).
25thDEN offense23 spots apart2ndSEA defense
3Seahawks third-down defense vs Broncos third-down offense
The Seahawks' third-down defense ranks 5th in third-down conversion rate (33.8% allowed, 68 third downs faced) and faces a Broncos third-down offense ranked 28th (34.4%, 64 third downs).
28thDEN offense23 spots apart5thSEA defense

When the Seahawks have the ballEdge DEN · +12 ranks

SEA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

16th+0.09162 dropbacks

DEN +12

-0.04 allowed186 dropbacks faced4th

SEA run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

30th-0.27132 rushes

+0.00 allowed137 rushes faced29th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Broncos have the ballEdge SEA · +23 ranks

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSEA pass defense

25th-0.08174 dropbacks

SEA +23

-0.08 allowed184 dropbacks faced2nd

DEN run gameEPA per rushSEA run defense

13th-0.04112 rushes

SEA +10

-0.21 allowed116 rushes faced3rd

Third downEdge SEA · +23 ranks

SEA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

30th31.6%57 third downs

45.8% allowed72 third downs faced25th

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSEA third-down defense

28th34.4%64 third downs

SEA +23

33.8% allowed68 third downs faced5th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +15 ranks

SEA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

14th61%18 trips

DEN +9

50% allowed16 trips faced5th

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSEA red-zone defense

16th60%15 trips

DEN +15

82% allowed11 trips faced31st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SEA · +26 ranks

SEA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

14th9.5%294 plays

SEA +8

10.2% allowed323 plays faced22nd

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSEA defense against big plays

28th6.6%286 plays

SEA +26

6.7% allowed300 plays faced2nd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

SEA pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

20th6.8% sacked162 dropbacks

7.0% of dropbacks186 dropbacks faced13th

DEN pass protectionsack rateSEA pass rush

4th3.4% sacked174 dropbacks

7.6% of dropbacks184 dropbacks faced8th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +15 ranks

SEA ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

25th1.8 giveaways a game5 games

DEN +15

1.4 takeaways a game5 games10th

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameSEA takeaway defense

12th1.0 giveaways a game5 games

SEA +10

1.8 takeaways a game5 games2nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: SEA 5 games, 294 offensive and 300 defensive plays · DEN 5 games, 286 offensive and 323 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Drew LockQB→ Sam Darnold

Zach CharbonnetRB→ George Holani

Brady RussellFB→ Emanuel Wilson

Josh JonesLT→ Charles Cross

Anthony BradfordRG→ Christian Haynes

Drake ThomasLILB→ Tyrice Knight

Jonah ColemanRB→ J.K. Dobbins

Adam PrenticeFB→ RJ Harvey

D.J. JonesNT→ Eyioma Uwazurike

Jonathon CooperWLB→ Que Robinson

Pat Surtain IILCB→ Jahdae Barron