Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Thu, Oct 8 · AT&T StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
TB	0	7	17	0	24
DAL	7	3	0	6	16

Home · 4-5DallasCowboys16

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-16 on Thu, Oct 8 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Buccaneers 3-6, Cowboys 4-5. J.Daniels (TB) led all players with +6.9 EPA on 31 dropbacks.

Who won Buccaneers vs Cowboys?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 24-16. By quarter: TB 0-7-17-0, DAL 7-3-0-6.

Who was the best player in Buccaneers vs Cowboys?

By expected points added: J.Daniels (TB, +6.9 EPA on 31 dropbacks), G.Pickens (DAL, +6.4 EPA on 13 targets) and B.Irving (TB, +6.3 EPA on 21 carries).

What was the turning point of Buccaneers vs Cowboys?

The biggest swing in win probability (20 points toward the Buccaneers) came in Q4 at 1:22: (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at TB 12. A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-08-tb-at-dal (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Buccaneers49% success · +0.16 EPA/play

2416

Cowboys48% success · −0.05 EPA/play

TB 95% deserveddeserved 5% DAL

Buccaneers earned it: the snaps said Buccaneers by 9.1, a deserved win probability of 95%.

Deserved marginTB by 9.1

Real marginTB by 8

Luck pts TB−0.4

Luck pts DAL−0.5

The swingQ4 1:22 · DAL · −17 pts of win probability. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingDAL → helped TB · Wk 5 Q2 11:09 · 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding,…+7.2 WP
2False StartTB → helped DAL · Wk 5 Q2 5:05 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-78-T.Wirfs, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 39 - No Play.+4.2 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA146 plays, one strand1 lead change · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Moore21 accepted flags in this game · 16.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: DAL by 9.5 · Snaps: TB by 9.1Buccaneers covered; the snaps agree

24@16

Week 5

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Cowboys after the play1%what really happened

Q4 1:22 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DAL ▲TB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+20%Q4 1:22 · for TB(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at TB 12. A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.
+18%Q3 9:36 · for TB(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at DAL 15 for 64 yards (M.Hooker).
+12%Q3 7:31 · for TBC.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to DAL 4. K.Turpin to DAL 28 for 24 yards (M.Killebrew). FUMBLES (M.Killebrew), RECOVERED by TB-K.Knowles at DAL 37.
+12%Q3 6:31 · for TB(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass deep left to E.Egbuka to DAL 27 for 21 yards (D.Bland). The first down was assisted by replay.
+11%Q3 10:51 · for TB(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for R.Flournoy INTERCEPTED by Y.Diaby at TB 24. Y.Diaby to TB 25 for 1 yard (C.Beebe; T.Booker).

Every drive, on the field

DAL attacks →← TB attacks

Q1 15:00TD9p · 70y · 4:09
Q1 10:51TD15p · 73y · 10:58
Q2 14:53PUNT5p · 12y · 2:27
Q2 12:26PUNT3p · 5y · 1:26
Q2 11:00PUNT5p · 12y · 1:47
Q2 9:13PUNT8p · 42y · 5:33
Q2 3:40PUNT3p · 5y · 0:37
Q2 3:03PUNT3p · 1y · 1:11
Q2 1:52FG6p · 64y · 1:31
Q2 0:21HALF3p · 34y · 0:21
Q3 15:00TD2p · 86y · 1:00
Q3 14:00INT6p · 41y · 3:17
Q3 10:43TD5p · 75y · 3:12
Q3 7:31FUM0p · 0y · 0:07
Q3 7:24FG8p · 14y · 4:26
Q3 2:58DOWNS5p · 18y · 1:12
Q3 1:46DOWNS12p · 41y · 8:14
Q4 8:32TD10p · 99y · 3:06
Q4 5:26PUNT3p · 2y · 1:44
Q4 3:42INT7p · 52y · 2:26
Q4 1:16END4p · 18y · 1:16

Buccaneers9 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)44%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Cowboys10 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)30%drives ending in pointsOWN 21avg starting field position1three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:51TouchdownJ.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.0–7
Q2
14:53Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right to B.Irving for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.7–7
Q2
0:21Field goalB.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.7–10
Q3
14:00TouchdownE.Egbuka left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.14–10
Q3
7:31TouchdownB.Irving left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.21–10
Q3
2:58Field goal C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.24–10
Q4
5:26Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Prescott pass to R.Flournoy is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.24–16

Team stats

TBvsDAL

419Total yards366

178Passing yards316

241Rushing yards50

6.4Yards per play6.7

24First downs20

7-13 · 54%Third down4-10 · 40%

0-1Fourth down0-1

3-5Red zone TDs2-2

19/25Comp / att24/42

6.2Yards per carry3.8

0Turnovers3

1 (−11 yds)Sacks allowed0

14 for 92Penalties7 for 57

39:21Possession20:39

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.162-0.047

Dropback EPA+0.221-0.076

Rush EPA+0.104+0.051

Success rate49%48%

Explosive plays76

Plays6356

Who moved the needle

J.DanielsDropbacks: 31+6.9

G.PickensTargets: 13+6.4

B.IrvingCarries: 21+6.3

C.OttonTargets: 4+2.0

B.IrvingTargets: 3+1.3

C.GodwinTargets: 3+0.9

Cost their side the most

J.FergusonTargets: 6-7.1

S.TuckerCarries: 5-4.2

D.PrescottDropbacks: 43-3.3

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jalon DanielsQB	19/25	189	7.6	1	0	1-11	66.0	110.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	21	165	7.9	1	72
Jalon DanielsQB	7	23	3.3	0	9
Kenny GainwellRB	4	18	4.5	0	7
Sean TuckerRB	5	18	3.6	0	6
Emeka EgbukaWR	1	14	14.0	1	14
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tez JohnsonWR	1	1	64	64.0	0	64
Emeka EgbukaWR	6	9	38	6.3	0	21
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	3	3	37	12.3	0	19
Cade OttonTE	3	4	25	8.3	0	11
Bucky IrvingRB	2	3	10	5.0	1	5
Kenny GainwellRB	3	4	10	3.3	0	15
Payne DurhamTE	1	1	5	5.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jacob ParrishCB	9	8	0	4	0
Keionte ScottCB	7	7	1	1	0
Josiah TrotterLB	7	5	1	0	0
Alex AnzaloneLB	5	1	0	1	0
Ifeatu MelifonwuS	4	3	0	0	0
Tykee SmithS	4	3	0	0	2
Christian RozeboomLB	3	2	0	1	0
Vita VeaDT	2	2	0	0	0
Rueben Bain Jr.LB	2	0	0	0	0
David WalkerLB	2	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	1/1	100.0	41	3/3	6

Dallas Cowboys

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Dak PrescottQB	24/42	316	7.5	1	2	0-0	62.4	69.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Javonte WilliamsRB	12	45	3.8	1	21
Hunter LuepkeFB	1	5	5.0	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
George PickensWR	9	13	130	14.4	1	27
Ryan FlournoyWR	3	4	90	30.0	0	48
KaVontae TurpinWR	2	4	22	11.0	0	15
Jonathan MingoWR	2	4	20	10.0	0	12
Jake FergusonTE	3	6	19	6.3	0	11
Javonte WilliamsRB	2	3	17	8.5	0	9
Luke SchoonmakerTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
CeeDee LambWR	2	5	9	4.5	0	5
Brevyn Spann-FordTE	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Dee WintersLB	10	6	1	0
Jaishawn BarhamLB	7	2	0	0
Rashan GaryLB	6	4	0	0
Donovan EzeiruakuLB	6	2	0	0
DaRon BlandCB	5	5	0	1
Reddy StewardCB	5	4	0	0
Malik HookerS	5	3	0	0
Otito OgbonniaDT	5	3	2	0
Ameer SpeedCB	4	2	0	0
Caleb DownsS	4	2	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brandon AubreyPK	1/1	100.0	41	1/1	4

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Buccaneers defense against big plays vs Cowboys big-play offense
The Buccaneers' defense against big plays ranks 7th in explosive-play rate (7.7% allowed, 222 plays faced) and faces a Cowboys big-play offense ranked 30th (6.8%, 251 plays).
30thDAL offense23 spots apart7thTB defense
2Cowboys pass protection vs Buccaneers pass rush
The Cowboys' pass protection ranks 6th in sack rate (3.6% sacked, 168 dropbacks) against a Buccaneers pass rush ranked 25th (4.4% of dropbacks, 136 dropbacks faced).
6thDAL offense19 spots apart25thTB defense
3Cowboys ball security vs Buccaneers takeaway defense
The Cowboys' ball security ranks 4th in turnovers per game (0.5 giveaways a game, 4 games) against a Buccaneers takeaway defense ranked 17th (1.0 takeaways a game, 4 games).
4thDAL offense13 spots apart17thTB defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Buccaneers have the ballNo big edge

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDAL pass defense

32nd-0.21158 dropbacks

+0.44 allowed130 dropbacks faced32nd

TB run gameEPA per rushDAL run defense

13th-0.0480 rushes

-0.08 allowed110 rushes faced16th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Cowboys have the ballEdge DAL · +9 ranks

DAL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

5th+0.26168 dropbacks

DAL +9

+0.04 allowed136 dropbacks faced14th

DAL run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

10th-0.0383 rushes

-0.22 allowed86 rushes faced3rd

Third downEdge TB · +10 ranks

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDAL third-down defense

22nd36.4%55 third downs

TB +10

54.8% allowed42 third downs faced32nd

DAL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

3rd53.1%49 third downs

32.7% allowed52 third downs faced4th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDAL red-zone defense

29th42%12 trips

71% allowed17 trips faced24th

DAL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

3rd76%17 trips

45% allowed11 trips faced4th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge TB · +23 ranks

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDAL defense against big plays

28th7.1%238 plays

12.5% allowed240 plays faced31st

DAL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

30th6.8%251 plays

TB +23

7.7% allowed222 plays faced7th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DAL · +19 ranks

TB pass protectionsack rateDAL pass rush

32nd10.1% sacked158 dropbacks

3.1% of dropbacks130 dropbacks faced29th

DAL pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

6th3.6% sacked168 dropbacks

DAL +19

4.4% of dropbacks136 dropbacks faced25th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DAL · +13 ranks

TB ball securityturnovers per gameDAL takeaway defense

30th2.3 giveaways a game4 games

0.5 takeaways a game4 games27th

DAL ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game4 games

DAL +13

1.0 takeaways a game4 games17th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: TB 4 games, 238 offensive and 222 defensive plays · DAL 4 games, 251 offensive and 240 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Baker MayfieldQB→ Jalon Daniels

A'Shawn RobinsonRDE→ Yaya Diaby

David WalkerSLB→ Al-Quadin Muhammad

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

Antoine Winfield Jr.FS→ Ifeatu Melifonwu

Brevyn Spann-FordTE→ Jake Ferguson

DeMarvion OvershownLILB→ Jaishawn Barham

Joey Porter Jr.LCB→ Reddy Steward

Markquese BellSS→ Ameer Speed

AwayBuccaneers1 next man up · 1 questionable · 5 changes