Jaguars 33, Ravens 10: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Thu, Nov 5 · M&T Bank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
JAX	10	7	3	13	33
BAL	3	0	0	7	10

Home · 4-5BaltimoreRavens10

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:42 PM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Baltimore Ravens 33-10 on Thu, Nov 5 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Jaguars 6-2, Ravens 4-5. T.Lawrence (JAX) led all players with +7.7 EPA on 26 dropbacks.

Who won Jaguars vs Ravens?

The Jacksonville Jaguars won 33-10. By quarter: JAX 10-7-3-13, BAL 3-0-0-7.

Who was the best player in Jaguars vs Ravens?

By expected points added: T.Lawrence (JAX, +7.7 EPA on 26 dropbacks), N.Boerkircher (JAX, +4.7 EPA on 3 targets) and J.Meyers (JAX, +4.6 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Jaguars vs Ravens?

The biggest swing in win probability (6 points toward the Jaguars) came in Q2 at 0:58: (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep left to P.Washington for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Jaguars 33, Ravens 10: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-05-jax-at-bal (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9EarnedGame file →

Jaguars46% success · +0.11 EPA/play

3310

Ravens32% success · −0.37 EPA/play

JAX 100% deserveddeserved 0% BAL

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 19.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 19.0

Real marginJAX by 23

Luck pts JAX−6.7

Luck pts BAL+4.3

The swingQ1 14:17 · JAX · +14 pts of win probability. 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 87-N.Boerkircher to BAL 21 for 52 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

Flags that moved this game

1Neutral Zone InfractionBAL → helped JAX · Wk 9 Q1 4:25 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.+9.6 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped BAL · Wk 9 Q2 3:07 · (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass incomplete short left to 4-Z.Flowers. PENALTY on JAX-2-J.Lewis, Defensive Pass Interference, 9…+6.7 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA132 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 3 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Allen11 accepted flags in this game · 15 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: JAX by 8.5 · Snaps: JAX by 19.0Jaguars covered; the snaps agree

33@10

Week 9

If the 36-yard kick had missed

Ravens after the play38%what really happened

Q1 2:04 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

BAL ▲JAX ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+6%Q2 0:58 · for JAX(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep left to P.Washington for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
+5%Q1 14:17 · for JAXT.Lawrence pass deep right to N.Boerkircher to BLT 21 for 52 yards (M.Humphrey).
+4%Q1 4:25 · for JAX(Shotgun) PENALTY on BLT-N.Madubuike, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 42 - No Play.
+2%Q1 4:30 · for BAL(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to P.Washington.
+2%Q2 4:37 · for BALC.Vinson reported in as eligible. D.Henry right end to BLT 33 for 4 yards (R.Lane).

Every drive, on the field

BAL attacks →← JAX attacks

Q1 15:00TD7p · 77y · 3:40
Q1 11:20FG8p · 30y · 4:49
Q1 6:31FG10p · 47y · 4:31
Q1 2:00PUNT11p · 32y · 7:28
Q2 9:32PUNT6p · 20y · 3:01
Q2 6:31PUNT9p · 25y · 4:27
Q2 2:04TD4p · 80y · 1:06
Q2 0:58PUNT3p · 8y · 0:47
Q2 0:11HALF1p · -1y · 0:11
Q3 15:00INT3p · -4y · 1:17
Q3 13:43FG4p · -1y · 0:55
Q3 12:48PUNT3p · 6y · 2:47
Q3 10:01PUNT3p · 5y · 2:31
Q3 7:30PUNT3p · -1y · 1:40
Q3 5:50FUM2p · 8y · 0:40
Q3 5:10DOWNS4p · 9y · 2:08
Q3 3:02FG8p · 30y · 4:27
Q4 13:35INT1p · 0y · 0:13
Q4 13:22FG4p · 8y · 1:30
Q4 11:52FUM0p · 0y · 0:06
Q4 11:46TD8p · 32y · 4:20
Q4 7:26TD1p · 65y · 0:11
Q4 7:15PUNT3p · 9y · 2:23
Q4 4:52END9p · 36y · 4:52

Jaguars11 drives7scoring drives (3 TD)64%drives ending in pointsOWN 39avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Ravens11 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)18%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position3three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:20TouchdownB.Tuten left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.7–0
Q1
6:31Field goal J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.7–3
Q1
2:00Field goal C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.10–3
Q2
0:58Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep left to P.Washington for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.17–3
Q3
12:48Field goalC.Little 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.20–3
Q4
13:35Field goal C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.23–3
Q4
11:52Field goal C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.26–3
Q4
7:26Touchdown(Shotgun) W.Milum reported in as eligible. Direct snap to C.Rodriguez. C.Rodriguez right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.33–3
Q4
7:15Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Vinson reported in as eligible. J.Hill right tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Moody extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.33–10

Team stats

JAXvsBAL

319Total yards227

242Passing yards55

77Rushing yards172

5.7Yards per play4.2

16First downs10

4-12 · 33%Third down4-14 · 29%

0-0Fourth down1-2

2-4Red zone TDs0-0

16/26Comp / att11/19

2.6Yards per carry5.1

1Turnovers3

0Sacks allowed1 (−2 yds)

4 for 24Penalties7 for 46

29:15Possession30:45

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.050-0.346

Dropback EPA+0.297-0.749

Rush EPA-0.171-0.089

Success rate45%31%

Explosive plays21

Plays5554

Who moved the needle

T.LawrenceDropbacks: 26+7.7

N.BoerkircherTargets: 3+4.7

J.MeyersTargets: 6+4.6

J.HillCarries: 9+1.9

Z.FlowersCarries: 3+1.1

A.AbdullahCarries: 7+0.8

Cost their side the most

J.FagnanoDropbacks: 20-14.5

Z.FlowersTargets: 6-12.8

C.RodriguezCarries: 10-3.3

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Trevor LawrenceQB	16/26	242	9.3	1	0	0-0	88.6	105.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ameer AbdullahRB	7	30	4.3	0	6
Bhayshul TutenRB	12	29	2.4	1	6
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	10	19	1.9	1	5
Trevor LawrenceQB	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jakobi MeyersWR	4	6	65	16.3	0	18
Parker WashingtonWR	2	7	61	30.5	1	50
Nate BoerkircherTE	2	3	61	30.5	0	52
Brenton StrangeTE	2	2	22	11.0	0	15
Tanner KoziolTE	2	2	15	7.5	0	11
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	2	2	13	6.5	0	8
Josh CameronWR	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	1	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Foyesade OluokunLB	7	6	1	1	0	1
Ventrell MillerLB	7	2	0	0	1	0
Branson CombsLB	6	3	0	0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	5	4	0	0	0	0
Antonio JohnsonS	5	1	0	0	0	0
Jahlani TavaiLB	4	4	0	1	0	0
Montaric BrownCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Kaevon MerriweatherS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Travon WalkerDE	3	2	0	2	0	1
Danny StriggowDE	3	1	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cam LittlePK	4/4	100.0	47	3/3	15

Baltimore Ravens

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Joe FagnanoQB	10/18	60	3.3	0	2	1-2	14.0	22.7
Derrick HenryRB	1/1	-3	-3.0	0	0	0-0	26.4	79.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Justice HillRB	9	85	9.4	1	65
Derrick HenryRB	17	57	3.4	0	8
Zay FlowersWR	3	17	5.7	0	9
Joe FagnanoQB	3	13	4.3	0	9
Mark AndrewsTE	2	0	0.0	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Mark AndrewsTE	2	2	19	9.5	12
LaJohntay WesterWR	1	1	14	14.0	14
Justice HillRB	3	3	7	2.3	3
Rashod BatemanWR	1	2	6	6.0	6
Zay FlowersWR	3	6	6	2.0	5
Matt HibnerTE	1	2	5	5.0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Roquan SmithLB	8	2	0	0
Trenton SimpsonLB	6	2	0	0
K'Von WallaceCB	4	4	0	0
Malaki StarksS	4	3	1	0
Keyon MartinCB	4	3	0	0
Marlon HumphreyCB	4	2	0	2
T.J. TampaCB	3	3	0	0
Kyle HamiltonS	3	3	1	1
Travis JonesDT	3	2	1	0
Ethan BurkeLB	3	2	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake MoodyPK	1/1	100.0	53	1/1	4

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jaguars run game vs Ravens run defense
The Jaguars' run game ranks 3rd in EPA per rush (+0.03, 185 rushes) against a Ravens run defense ranked 23rd (-0.05 allowed, 195 rushes faced).
3rdJAX offense20 spots apart23rdBAL defense
2Jaguars dropback offense vs Ravens pass defense
The Jaguars' dropback offense ranks 3rd in EPA per dropback (+0.27, 223 dropbacks) against a Ravens pass defense ranked 17th (+0.06 allowed, 303 dropbacks faced).
3rdJAX offense14 spots apart17thBAL defense
3Jaguars red-zone offense vs Ravens red-zone defense
The Jaguars' red-zone offense ranks 9th in red-zone touchdown rate (65%, 20 trips) against a Ravens red-zone defense ranked 23rd (66% allowed, 29 trips faced).
9thJAX offense14 spots apart23rdBAL defense

When the Jaguars have the ballEdge JAX · +20 ranks

JAX dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBAL pass defense

3rd+0.27223 dropbacks

JAX +14

+0.06 allowed303 dropbacks faced17th

JAX run gameEPA per rushBAL run defense

3rd+0.03185 rushes

JAX +20

-0.05 allowed195 rushes faced23rd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Ravens have the ballEdge JAX · +15 ranks

BAL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackJAX pass defense

14th+0.09269 dropbacks

JAX +8

-0.05 allowed270 dropbacks faced6th

BAL run gameEPA per rushJAX run defense

16th-0.07205 rushes

JAX +15

-0.19 allowed142 rushes faced1st

Third downEdge JAX · +8 ranks

JAX third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBAL third-down defense

4th48.8%84 third downs

JAX +8

39.6% allowed106 third downs faced12th

BAL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateJAX third-down defense

14th40.0%95 third downs

36.7% allowed79 third downs faced9th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge JAX · +14 ranks

JAX red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBAL red-zone defense

9th65%20 trips

JAX +14

66% allowed29 trips faced23rd

BAL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateJAX red-zone defense

14th59%27 trips

JAX +10

41% allowed22 trips faced4th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

JAX big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBAL defense against big plays

4th11.0%408 plays

8.2% allowed498 plays faced10th

BAL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateJAX defense against big plays

7th10.5%474 plays

7.8% allowed412 plays faced6th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

JAX pass protectionsack rateBAL pass rush

15th5.8% sacked223 dropbacks

5.6% of dropbacks303 dropbacks faced19th

BAL pass protectionsack rateJAX pass rush

26th8.2% sacked269 dropbacks

5.6% of dropbacks270 dropbacks faced22nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge JAX · +13 ranks

JAX ball securityturnovers per gameBAL takeaway defense

6th0.7 giveaways a game7 games

JAX +13

1.0 takeaways a game8 games19th

BAL ball securityturnovers per gameJAX takeaway defense

11th1.0 giveaways a game8 games

JAX +8

1.7 takeaways a game7 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: JAX 7 games, 408 offensive and 412 defensive plays · BAL 8 games, 474 offensive and 498 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Bhayshul TutenRB→ Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr.WR→ Josh Cameron

Davon GodchauxRDT→ Ruke Orhorhoro

Jourdan LewisNB→ Jarrian Jones

Jessie Bates IIISS→ Kaevon Merriweather

Jacoby BrissettQB→ Joe Fagnano

Calais CampbellRDE→ Ethan Burke

Nate WigginsLCB→ Chidobe Awuzie

Jaylinn HawkinsSS→ T.J. Tampa

AwayJaguars5 changes