49ers 27, Rams 7: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Thu, Sep 10 · Melbourne Cricket GroundFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
SF	3	7	7	10	27
LAR	0	7	0	0	7

Home · 5-4Los AngelesRams7

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Los Angeles Rams 27-7 on Thu, Sep 10 at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, VIC (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: 49ers 7-1, Rams 5-4. M.Evans (SF) led all players with +8.2 EPA on 7 targets.

Who won 49ers vs Rams?

The San Francisco 49ers won 27-7. By quarter: SF 3-7-7-10, LAR 0-7-0-0.

Who was the best player in 49ers vs Rams?

By expected points added: M.Evans (SF, +8.2 EPA on 7 targets), B.Purdy (SF, +7.5 EPA on 36 dropbacks) and D.Robinson (SF, +3.0 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of 49ers vs Rams?

The biggest swing in win probability (14 points toward the 49ers) came in Q2 at 4:28: B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “49ers 27, Rams 7: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-10-sf-at-lar (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1EarnedGame file →

49ers56% success · +0.18 EPA/play

277

Rams43% success · −0.21 EPA/play

SF >99% deserveddeserved <1% LAR

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 17.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSF by 17.3

Real marginSF by 20

Luck pts SF+2.0

Luck pts LAR−1.2

The swingQ2 4:35 · SF · +12 pts of win probability. 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingLA → helped SF · Wk 1 Q2 3:10 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on LA-71-W.McClendon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+8.3 WP
2Roughing the PasserLA → helped SF · Wk 1 Q2 1:24 · (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 19-D.Samuel. PENALTY on LA-90-T.Davis, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,…+3.4 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1LA · 4th & 1Sean McVay chose Punt at own 26, Wk 1 Q1 13:38, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
2SF · 4th & 2Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 25, Wk 1 Q1 2:01, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.59 EP
3SF · 4th & 2Kyle Shanahan chose Field goal at opp 2, Wk 1 Q1 6:17, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.34 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA134 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Kemp6 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: LAR by 3.5 · Snaps: SF by 17.349ers covered; the snaps agree

27@7

Week 1

If the Rams had converted that fourth-and-1

Rams after the play18%what really happened

Q3 3:46 9-M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain (92-O.Odighizuwa). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

LAR ▲SF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+14%Q2 4:28 · for SFB.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
+9%Q3 4:26 · for SF(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua to SF 1 for 1 yard (D.Lenoir).
+9%Q3 6:56 · for LARM.Stafford pass short left to D.Adams to SF 11 for 13 yards (J.Brown).
+8%Q2 12:09 · for LARB.Purdy pass short right intended for G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at LA 31. Q.Lake to LA 31 for no gain (G.Kittle).
+8%Q3 11:03 · for SFB.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.

Every drive, on the field

LAR attacks →← SF attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 9y · 1:32
Q1 13:28FG15p · 65y · 7:13
Q1 6:15PUNT6p · 15y · 2:57
Q1 3:18PUNT3p · 8y · 1:26
Q1 1:52TD4p · 57y · 1:55
Q2 14:57INT6p · 23y · 2:53
Q2 12:04INT7p · 34y · 3:12
Q2 8:52TD9p · 86y · 4:24
Q2 4:28PUNT4p · 13y · 1:45
Q2 2:43PUNT5p · 41y · 2:23
Q2 0:20HALF1p · -1y · 0:20
Q3 15:00TD7p · 51y · 3:57
Q3 11:03DOWNS12p · 72y · 7:22
Q3 3:41TD11p · 99y · 5:44
Q4 12:57FUM4p · 20y · 1:49
Q4 11:08FG4p · 5y · 1:25
Q4 9:43DOWNS6p · 19y · 1:49
Q4 7:54MISS7p · 16y · 4:25
Q4 3:29END10p · 45y · 3:29

49ers9 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Rams8 drives1scoring drives (1 TD)13%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position1three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
6:15Field goalE.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.3–0
Q2
14:57TouchdownK.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.3–7
Q2
4:28TouchdownB.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.10–7
Q3
11:03TouchdownB.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.17–7
Q4
12:57Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short right to D.Samuel for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.24–7
Q4
9:43Field goalE.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.27–7

Team stats

SFvsLAR

379Total yards290

205Passing yards168

174Rushing yards122

5.9Yards per play5.1

23First downs15

7-12 · 58%Third down2-9 · 22%

0-0Fourth down1-3

2-3Red zone TDs1-3

25/34Comp / att17/28

5.8Yards per carry4.2

1Turnovers2

0Sacks allowed0

2 for 21Penalties4 for 43

33:50Possession26:10

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.179-0.265

Dropback EPA+0.208-0.352

Rush EPA+0.142-0.171

Success rate56%43%

Explosive plays64

Plays6456

Who moved the needle

M.EvansTargets: 7+8.2

B.PurdyDropbacks: 36+7.5

D.RobinsonTargets: 3+3.0

D.SamuelTargets: 7+2.9

C.McCaffreyCarries: 10+2.7

K.WilliamsCarries: 11+1.1

Cost their side the most

M.StaffordDropbacks: 25-11.2

G.KittleTargets: 5-5.6

C.McCaffreyTargets: 8-4.9

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	25/34	205	6.0	3	1	0-0	88.6	105.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Christian McCaffreyRB	10	68	6.8	16
Kaelon BlackRB	14	65	4.6	14
Brock PurdyQB	5	29	5.8	18
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	1	12	12.0	12

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Demarcus RobinsonWR	2	3	50	25.0	1	39
Mike EvansWR	6	7	49	8.2	1	13
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	6	7	48	8.0	1	15
Christian McCaffreyRB	5	8	20	4.0	0	8
Luke FarrellTE	2	2	19	9.5	0	14
George KittleTE	2	5	12	6.0	0	6
Kaelon BlackRB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Jake BrendelC	1	1	2	2.0	0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Fred WarnerLB	11	5	0	1	0
Marques SigleS	9	4	0	0	0
Deommodore LenoirCB	6	3	0	0	0
Dre GreenlawLB	6	1	0	0	0
Jaden DuggerLB	5	1	0	0	0
Nick BosaDE	4	3	2	0	1
Ji'Ayir BrownS	4	2	0	0	0
Renardo GreenCB	3	2	0	1	0
Malik MustaphaS	3	2	0	0	0
Garret WallowLB	2	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	2/3	66.7	56	3/3	9

Los Angeles Rams

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Matthew StaffordQB	15/25	155	6.2	0	1	0-0	45.8	61.2
Stetson Bennett IVQB	2/3	13	4.3	0	0	0-0	83.6	75.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Blake CorumRB	10	54	5.4	0	13
Kyren WilliamsRB	11	41	3.7	1	8
Ronnie RiversRB	5	19	3.8	0	7
Stetson Bennett IVQB	1	9	9.0	0	9
Matthew StaffordQB	2	-1	-0.5	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Puka NacuaWR	5	9	74	14.8	41
Davante AdamsWR	3	6	26	8.7	13
Kyren WilliamsRB	3	3	24	8.0	16
Davis AllenTE	1	1	13	13.0	13
Tyler HigbeeTE	2	2	12	6.0	8
Jordan WhittingtonWR	1	1	8	8.0	8
Colby ParkinsonTE	1	2	6	6.0	6
Ronnie RiversRB	1	1	5	5.0	5
Terrance FergusonTE	0	1	0	0.0	0
Konata MumpfieldWR	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Quentin LakeS	10	7	0	3	0
Kamren KinchensS	9	3	0	0	0
Nate LandmanLB	8	5	0	1	1
Kobie TurnerDE	7	2	0	0	0
Tyler DavisDE	7	2	0	0	0
Jaylen McColloughS	6	3	0	0	0
Shaun DolacLB	6	3	0	0	0
Josaiah StewartLB	6	2	0	0	1
Trent McDuffieCB	4	4	1	2	0
Jaylen WatsonCB	4	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison Mevis	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Keenan AllenWR→ Demarcus Robinson

George KittleTE→ Luke Farrell

DeForest BucknerRDT→ Gracen Halton

Malik MustaphaSS→ Marques Sigle

CJ DanielsWR→ Puka Nacua

Konata MumpfieldWR→ Davante Adams

Tutu AtwellWR→ Jordan Whittington

Tyler HigbeeTE→ Colby Parkinson

Ty HamiltonNT→ Poona Ford

Aaron DonaldRDE→ Kobie Turner

Josh WallaceLCB→ Jaylen Watson