NFC South · 2026 season

CarolinaPanthers

3-5record1stin South#4NFC seed-20point diffL3streak

SaintsSun, Nov 15 · 1 PM ETNO -1.5 · O/U 47.5

What changed · Last 4 games (weeks 6-9) vs 4 games before (weeks 1-4)

Biggest improvementRun gameEPA per rush20th→5th

Over the last 4 games the run game has posted +0.03 EPA per rush (88 rushes), 5th among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: -0.12 EPA per rush (88 rushes), 20th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Emerging problemDropback offenseEPA per dropback6th→23rd

Over the last 4 games the dropback offense has posted -0.07 EPA per dropback (171 dropbacks), 23rd among 32 teams over their own last 4. In the 4 games before: +0.23 EPA per dropback (177 dropbacks), 6th.

Season EPA ranks ↓Usage shiftLathan Ransom, Sdefensive snap share56%→7%

Lathan Ransom has played 7% of defensive snaps over the last 4 games, down from 56% in the 4 games before. On the field in 3 of 4 and 4 of 4; a game without a snap counts as zero.

Snap counts, week by week ↓

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

The Carolina Panthers are 3-5 in the 2026 season, 1st in the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the NFC, with a point differential of -20. On offense they rank 9th in the league in EPA per play (+0.042); on defense they rank 21st (+0.030 allowed). The Pigskin Nightly model gives them a 26% chance to make the playoffs and 0.4% to win the Super Bowl. The Carolina Panthers play next on the road at the New Orleans Saints on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What is the Carolina Panthers record?

3-5, 1st in the NFC South. Home 1-3, road 2-2, division 1-1, conference 3-3, current streak L3. Points: 199 scored, 219 allowed.

Who do the Carolina Panthers play next?

The Carolina Panthers play next on the road at the New Orleans Saints on Sun, Nov 15, 1 PM ET (Week 10), on Fox.

What are the Carolina Panthers' playoff chances?

26% to make the playoffs, 25% to win the NFC South, 0% to earn the No. 1 seed and the bye, 1.5% to win the NFC and 0.4% to win the Super Bowl, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected record 7.2-9.8).

Who is the Carolina Panthers starting quarterback?

Bryce Young is first on the Panthers depth chart at quarterback, with Kenny Pickett behind.

Who is injured for the Carolina Panthers?

Out, doubtful or on injured reserve: Bobby Okereke (LB, out, foot), Damien Lewis (G, out, knee), Jaelan Phillips (LB, out, hamstring), Will Lee III (CB, out, hamstring), Brady Christensen (G, injured reserve, hamstring), Jaycee Horn (CB, injured reserve, quadriceps), Jonathon Brooks (RB, injured reserve, abdomen) and Mike Jackson (CB, injured reserve, groin) (plus 1 more).

How good is the Carolina Panthers offense and defense?

Offense: 9th in EPA per play (+0.042), 13th on dropbacks, 12th on runs, success rate 42.7%. Defense: 21st in EPA allowed (+0.030), 20th against the pass, 25th against the run.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Carolina Panthers 2026: record, EPA, depth chart and injuries”, https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/panthers (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

From the Panthers Desk

Open the desk →

The VerdictPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sackThe snaps gave Carolina a 79% chance against Denver, and a Week 9 fumble in the final two minutes turned that into a 3-5 record.Nov 10, 2026 · 2 min read The TapePanthers lose 26-21 to Denver after Bryce Young is stripped on the final driveNov 8, 2026 · 3 min read Scouting ReportPanthers rush defense, 28th in the league, meets a Broncos ground game ranked 13thNov 7, 2026 · 3 min read

The Wire

The Verdict · 2026

The Panthers, judged from every snap

About rightthe record matches the snaps

Real record3-5

Deserved3.7wins

Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up

−0.7 luck wins · 25th luckiest in the NFL · net EPA per snap 17th

Bars: deserved win probability, from the snaps50% line

Bottom linerobbed in 1 of 8.

How to read this chart

The track:: solid dot = real wins, ring = deserved wins (the record the snaps earned), on a scale from 0 to 8 games. The colored gap between them is the luck.
The strip:: one tile per game, oldest first, with the opponent and the score. The bar is how often the Panthers would win a replay of the same snaps; above the middle line they deserved to win.
The label:: Earned or Fair loss = the result matched the play; Coin flip = it could have gone either way; Lucky / Robbed = the result went against the play.

One-score games1-3decided by 8 or fewer

Chicken Index22%28th most timid of 28

Flags, net−12win prob. points · 19th

Bounce & kick luck−6.2points · −0.8 a game

Latest ruling · Week 9

Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.

From the Panthers DeskPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sackThe snaps gave Carolina a 79% chance against Denver, and a Week 9 fumble in the final two minutes turned that into a 3-5 record.

From the Lab

The lab file

All Lab tools →

Scheme DNAMost rpo rate, fastest tempo in the leagueClosest twin: Cowboys (52%)Clock IQ5th of 32 at managing the clockDave Canales · 4 timeouts burned · 0 halves left on the table Deserved Standings

Real43-5

Deserved–3.7-4.3

In a playoff spot the snaps did not earnSeeds in the NFC, real and as if every game went to the team that deserved it Market vs Snaps+0.4The market has them about rightPoints a game the snaps beat the line · 3-5 against the spread Sliding Doors0losses that one coin-flip play could have flipped101 points of win probability lost to those plays, 63 saved in wins

The season, week by week

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA prevented

Wk 5Bye

Bars above the line are good: offense adding expected points, defense taking them away. The middle line is league average zero.Rest days and miles traveled, all 32 →

The road ahead

Playoff odds, all 32 →

Playoff oddsPanthers3-5 · proj 7.2-9.8 · 10th in NFC26%▼ 5 pts

Win it all 0.4% · likeliest seed No. 4 (20%)Full odds →

Next 5 · schedule leftNo. 16 hardest of 32 · avg opp +0.2 →

Regular season · rank among 32 teams

Where the Panthers stand

Offense

EPA per play+0.0429th

Dropback EPA+0.08413th

Rush EPA-0.04112th

Success rate42.7%16th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.03021st

Pass EPA allowed+0.07320th

Rush EPA allowed-0.03225th

Success allowed44.4%23rd

Pass rate over expected: +3.1% (4th most pass-heavy given down, distance and score). 524 offensive plays logged.

Fantasy points allowed per game: QB 17.4 (22nd most) · RB 28.5 (2nd most) · WR 32.4 (16th most) · TE 13.5 (16th most). Defense vs position

Who produces

EPA from the nflverse play-by-play model

Quarterback · 341 dropbacksB.Young+0.069EPA / dropback+1.3CPOE8.1aDOT44%success

Quarterback · 7 dropbacksK.Pickett+0.850EPA / dropback-9.7CPOE6.6aDOT57%success

Rushing	Car	Yds	TD	EPA/car	Success
C.Hubbard RB	135	619	5	+0.06	46%
A.Dillon RB	17	43	0	-0.56	24%
T.Etienne RB	10	15	0	-0.47	10%
J.Brooks RB	9	30	0	-0.27	22%

Targets	Tgt	Target share	Air share	aDOT	Yds	TD	EPA/tgt
T.McMillan WR	72	25%	33%	11.0	626	3	+0.38
J.Coker WR	49	17%	22%	10.4	392	3	+0.19
D.Waller TE	35	12%	14%	9.7	299	4	+0.38
C.Hubbard RB	31	11%	-1%	-0.6	167	2	+0.42
T.Tremble TE	30	11%	5%	3.8	179	3	+0.02
J.Metchie WR	23	8%	8%	8.2	154	1	+0.43
M.Evans TE	14	5%	3%	4.6	147	0	+0.49
B.Tremayne WR	12	4%	7%	14.7	126	0	+0.34

Depth chart, on the field

QuestionableOut / IRFull roster →

Offense3WR 1TE

57RTFreeling Forsythe

82TETremble Waller

4WRMcMillan Tremayne

18WRCoker Moore

13WRMetchie III Legette ·

DefenseBase 3-4 D

21FSScott Ransom

36LCBDeWalt IV Evans

95LDEBrown Hall

55LILBLloyd Dodson

26NBSmith-Wade Horn ·

92NTHunter Jackson

24RCBLee III

98RDEWharton Brown III

58RILBOkereke Kuwatch

5SLBPhillips Umanmielen

7SSMoehrig Wheatley

91WLBJones II Gipson

HolderSam Martin Kick ReturnerTrevor Etienne Long SnapperJJ Jansen PunterSam Martin Place KickerRyan Fitzgerald Punt ReturnerTrevor Etienne

Snap counts

Share of team snaps, every weekThis week's starters →

Offense	1	2	3	4	6	7	8	9
Rasheed WalkerT	100	94	100	100	100	100	100	100
Robert HuntG	90	98	100	100	100	100	100	100
Luke FortnerC	90	94	100	100	100	80	100	100
Bryce YoungQB	90	94	100	100	100	77	100	100
Monroe FreelingT	90	100	100	64		59	100	100
Torricelli SimpkinsG						20		100
Chuba HubbardRB	71	65	84	84	94	61	92	89
Jalen CokerWR	84	76	36		75	66	86	82
Tetairoa McMillanWR	82	80	95	89	76	68	89	80
Tommy TrembleTE	56	56	48	51	68	48	60	70
Darren WallerTE	35	44	51	53	46	45	62	53
Mitchell EvansTE	40	58	27	61	54	50	32	47
Brycen TremayneWR	18	17	81	92	32	38	26	32
John MetchieWR		11	56	37	34	46	45	29

Defense	1	2	3	4	6	7	8	9
Tre'von MoehrigS	100	86	100	100	100	79	100	100
Devin LloydLB	99	71		100	100	79	100	100
Nick ScottS	96	7		99	100	89	100	100
Marco WilsonCB							100	100
Corey ThorntonCB								100
Tyrel DodsonLB			54			21		99
Patrick Jones IILB			60	76	73	57	70	72
Derrick BrownDT	61	58	76	76	75	65	74	68
Tershawn WhartonDT					48	51	72	61
Chau Smith-WadeCB	25			25	3	2	70	60
Princely UmanmielenLB	47	46	37	52	55	46	36	49
Trevis GipsonLB	60	38	33	25	30	62	61	49
Bobby BrownDT	52		44	28	36	46		37
Zakee WheatleyS		45	71	63	81	52	68	35

With / Without

All Panthers splits →

Wide receiverJalen Coker72% of snapsSmall sample

-0.29Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play+0.004+0.289

Success41.6%50.0%

Points / game23.932.0

With 7 games · 454 playsWithout 1 game · 70 plays (Wk 4)

Opponents avg rating

With

CHI

ATL

CLE

PHI

DEN-0.6

Without

DET+2.0

Opponents in the games with him were 2.6 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

With games:Akayleb Evans CB · 3/7, Jaelan Phillips EDGE · 3/7, Devin Lloyd LB · 1/7, Monroe Freeling OT · 1/7 +1 more

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-3)+0.053From Wk 4 on (Wks 4-8)+0.015

CornerbackAkayleb Evans73% of snaps

+0.12Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed+0.050+0.173

Success allowed43.4%48.5%

Points allowed26.037.3

With 4 games · 249 playsWithout 3 games · 202 plays (Wks 1, 8, 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

CLE

DET

PHI

TB-1.9

Without

CHI

DEN+2.8

Opponents in the games with him were 4.6 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

Without games:Jaelan Phillips EDGE · 2/3, Will Lee III CB · 1/3

With games:Devin Lloyd LB · 1/4, Jaelan Phillips EDGE · 1/4, Jalen Coker WR · 1/4, Monroe Freeling OT · 1/4

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

No games before his first absence (Wk 1)From Wk 1 on (Wks 1-4)+0.028

Edge rusherJaelan Phillips64% of snapsOut

+0.11Observed difference
EPA allowed, better with

EPA allowed-0.009+0.098

Success allowed42.4%47.9%

Points allowed24.632.0

With 5 games · 328 playsWithout 3 games · 190 plays (Wks 7, 8, 9)

Opponents avg rating

With

CHI

ATL

CLE

DET

PHI-1.7

Without

DEN+2.0

Opponents in the games with him were 3.7 pts weaker on average

Other starters out

Without games:Akayleb Evans CB · 2/3, Will Lee III CB · 1/3

With games:Akayleb Evans CB · 1/5, Devin Lloyd LB · 1/5, Jalen Coker WR · 1/5, Monroe Freeling OT · 1/5

Team trend EPA/play allowed, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 2-6)-0.122From Wk 7 on (Wks 7-9)+0.098

TackleMonroe Freeling88% of snapsSmall sample

-0.09Observed difference
EPA/play, better without

EPA / play+0.030+0.119

Success42.6%43.8%

Points / game24.925.0

With 7 games · 451 playsWithout 1 game · 73 plays (Wk 6)

Opponents avg rating

With

CHI

ATL

CLE

DET

DEN+0.9

Without

PHI-8.5

Opponents in the games with him were 9.4 pts stronger on average

Other starters out

With games:Akayleb Evans CB · 3/7, Jaelan Phillips EDGE · 3/7, Devin Lloyd LB · 1/7, Jalen Coker WR · 1/7 +1 more

Team trend EPA/play, up to 4 games each side of his first absence

Before (Wks 1-4)+0.115From Wk 6 on (Wks 6-9)-0.032

No "without" sample yet

Never missed a game

Key Panthers starters who have taken the field in every game so far. A split appears here once one of them sits out a full game.

Rasheed WalkerTackle · 8/8 games99%
Tre'von MoehrigSafety · 8/8 games96%
Bryce YoungQuarterback · 8/8 games95%
Tetairoa McMillanWide receiver · 8/8 games82%
Chuba HubbardRunning back · 8/8 games80%
Derrick BrownInterior line · 8/8 games69%
Tommy TrembleTight end · 8/8 games57%
Princely UmanmielenEdge rusher · 8/8 games46%

Bar = average share of his unit's snaps

Observed differences between groups of games, not the player's causal effect. Why sample size matters · What EPA is

Injury report

Whole league

Out, doubtful or on IR

Bobby OkerekeLB · #58 · FootOut
Damien LewisG · #68 · KneeOut
Jaelan PhillipsLB · #5 · HamstringOut
Will Lee IIICB · #24 · HamstringOut
Brady ChristensenG · #70 · HamstringIR
Jaycee HornCB · #8 · QuadricepsIR
Jonathon BrooksRB · #25 · AbdomenIR
Mike JacksonCB · #2 · GroinIR
Xavier LegetteWR · #17 · KneeIR

NFC South

Full standings

PanthersDiv 1-1 · Home 1-3 · Road 2-23-5-20 2

SaintsDiv 0-1 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-13-5-31 3

BuccaneersDiv 2-0 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-23-6+24 4

FalconsDiv 1-2 · Home 1-4 · Road 2-23-6-35