Broncos 14, 49ers 24: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Levi's StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	3	0	0	11	14
SF	0	3	7	14	24

Home · 7-1San Francisco49ers24

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:04 PM ET

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Denver Broncos 24-14 on Sun, Oct 4 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Broncos 7-2, 49ers 7-1. B.Purdy (SF) led all players with +9.9 EPA on 33 dropbacks.

Who won Broncos vs 49ers?

The San Francisco 49ers won 24-14. By quarter: DEN 3-0-0-11, SF 0-3-7-14.

Who was the best player in Broncos vs 49ers?

By expected points added: B.Purdy (SF, +9.9 EPA on 33 dropbacks), P.Bryant (DEN, +5.3 EPA on 3 targets) and B.Nix (DEN, +5.1 EPA on 44 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Broncos vs 49ers?

The biggest swing in win probability (14 points toward the 49ers) came in Q3 at 9:52: C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-J.Weeks. M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (S.Neal). FUMBLES (S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-S.Neal at DEN 28. S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (M.Mims).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Broncos 14, 49ers 24: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-den-at-sf (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Broncos42% success · +0.03 EPA/play

1424

49ers48% success · +0.12 EPA/play

DEN 19% deserveddeserved 81% SF

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 4.9, a deserved win probability of 81%.

Deserved marginSF by 4.9

Real marginSF by 10

Luck pts DEN+3.7

Luck pts SF−1.3

The swingQ3 9:52 · SF · +21 pts of win probability. 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingDEN → helped SF · Wk 4 Q1 3:41 · 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 55-S.Valdez). PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, Offensive Holding,…+6.2 WP
2Defensive Delay of GameSF → helped DEN · Wk 4 Q2 1:10 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 33 for 4 yards (2-D.Lenoir). PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Delay…+3.7 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 21, Wk 4 Q2 10:36, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
2DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 45, Wk 4 Q3 10:52, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.97 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA147 plays, one strand1 lead change · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewRonald Torbert8 accepted flags in this game · 14 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: SF by 3 · Snaps: SF by 4.949ers covered; the snaps agree

14@24

Week 4Changes the winner

If the Broncos had stopped that fourth-and-1

Broncos after the play32%what really happened

Q3 7:24 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SF ▲DEN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+14%Q3 9:52 · for SFC.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-J.Weeks. M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (S.Neal). FUMBLES (S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-S.Neal at DEN 28. S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (M.Mims).
+14%Q4 2:15 · for SF(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
+6%Q2 2:15 · for SFD.Samuel left end to DEN 23 for 20 yards (B.Jones).
+6%Q3 8:10 · for DENK.Black right end to DEN 19 for no gain (B.Jones; J.Barron).
+5%Q3 7:24 · for SF(Shotgun) K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (B.Jones).

Every drive, on the field

SF attacks →← DEN attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 2y · 0:51
Q1 14:09PUNT8p · 30y · 4:38
Q1 9:31FG13p · 55y · 7:48
Q1 1:43DOWNS5p · 31y · 2:22
Q2 14:21PUNT3p · 3y · 1:45
Q2 12:36PUNT3p · 9y · 2:08
Q2 10:28PUNT9p · 23y · 5:27
Q2 5:01FG12p · 74y · 3:25
Q2 1:36PUNT6p · 18y · 0:55
Q2 0:41BLK8p · 46y · 0:41
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 1y · 1:04
Q3 13:56PUNT6p · 22y · 3:12
Q3 10:44PUNT3p · 3y · 1:04
Q3 9:40TD9p · 28y · 5:25
Q3 4:15FG11p · 63y · 5:07
Q4 14:08TD9p · 74y · 5:16
Q4 8:52TD8p · 70y · 4:47
Q4 4:05TD5p · 69y · 1:50
Q4 2:15MISS8p · 18y · 1:01
Q4 1:14END2p · -2y · 1:14

Broncos9 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position2three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

49ers10 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position3three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
1:43Field goalW.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.3–0
Q2
1:36Field goalE.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.3–3
Q3
4:15TouchdownB.Purdy pass short left to D.Samuel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.3–10
Q4
14:08Field goalW.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.6–10
Q4
8:52TouchdownC.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.6–17
Q4
4:05Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short left to J.Waddle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Badie rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.14–17
Q4
2:15Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.14–24

Team stats

DENvsSF

296Total yards358

214Passing yards218

82Rushing yards140

4.6Yards per play5.5

16First downs20

8-17 · 47%Third down6-13 · 46%

1-1Fourth down1-2

1-1Red zone TDs2-3

25/42Comp / att19/30

3.7Yards per carry4.0

1Turnovers0

0Sacks allowed0

7 for 44Penalties1 for 5

30:53Possession29:07

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.089+0.120

Dropback EPA+0.115+0.300

Rush EPA+0.033-0.085

Success rate42%48%

Explosive plays28

Plays6562

Who moved the needle

B.PurdyDropbacks: 33+9.9

P.BryantTargets: 3+5.3

B.NixDropbacks: 44+5.1

G.KittleTargets: 6+4.6

D.SamuelCarries: 3+3.0

T.BadieCarries: 3+2.8

Cost their side the most

B.PurdyCarries: 6-3.1

C.McCaffreyCarries: 15-2.6

C.SuttonTargets: 6-2.5

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	25/42	214	5.1	1	0	0-0	45.3	80.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
J.K. DobbinsRB	11	40	3.6	9
RJ HarveyRB	7	25	3.6	9
Bo NixQB	2	10	5.0	7
Tyler BadieRB	2	7	3.5	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
RJ HarveyRB	10	10	68	6.8	0	18
Pat BryantWR	3	3	47	15.7	0	30
Jaylen WaddleWR	5	6	35	7.0	1	13
Tyler BadieRB	2	2	32	16.0	0	25
J.K. DobbinsRB	2	2	12	6.0	0	7
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	1	3	10	10.0	0	10
Evan EngramTE	1	5	6	6.0	0	6
Courtland SuttonWR	1	6	4	4.0	0	4
Adam TrautmanTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	14	7	1	0	0
Brandon JonesS	9	6	0	0	0
Zach AllenDE	5	2	0	0	3
Justin StrnadLB	5	2	0	0	0
Talanoa HufangaS	4	2	0	0	0
Pat Surtain IICB	4	2	0	0	0
Kris Abrams-DraineCB	3	3	0	0	0
D.J. JonesDT	3	2	0	1	1
Malcolm RoachDT	3	2	0	1	0
Nik BonittoLB	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	2/3	66.7	52	0/0	6

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	19/30	218	7.3	2	0	0-0	70.5	107.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian McCaffreyRB	15	52	3.5	1	14
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	3	44	14.7	0	22
Brock PurdyQB	10	29	2.9	0	11
Kaelon BlackRB	6	13	2.2	0	5
Jacob CowingWR	1	2	2.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mike EvansWR	5	8	76	15.2	0	24
George KittleTE	4	6	70	17.5	1	56
Kyle JuszczykFB	2	2	28	14.0	0	16
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	5	6	26	5.2	1	8
Christian McCaffreyRB	3	5	18	6.0	0	9
Brandin CooksWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jacob CowingWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	PD
Dre GreenlawLB	12	7	0
Fred WarnerLB	7	3	2
Upton StoutCB	6	4	0
Marques SigleS	6	4	0
Deommodore LenoirCB	4	3	0
Ji'Ayir BrownS	4	3	0
Renardo GreenCB	3	3	0
Luke FarrellTE	3	2	0
Gracen HaltonDT	3	0	0
Luke GiffordLB	2	2	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	1/2	50.0	24	3/3	6

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

149ers third-down offense vs Broncos third-down defense
The 49ers' third-down offense ranks 1st in third-down conversion rate (63.0%, 27 third downs) against a Broncos third-down defense ranked 27th (48.9% allowed, 45 third downs faced).
1stSF offense26 spots apart27thDEN defense
249ers run game vs Broncos run defense
The 49ers' run game ranks 11th in EPA per rush (-0.03, 71 rushes) against a Broncos run defense ranked 32nd (+0.15 allowed, 77 rushes faced).
11thSF offense21 spots apart32ndDEN defense
349ers defense against big plays vs Broncos big-play offense
The 49ers' defense against big plays ranks 1st in explosive-play rate (3.6% allowed, 192 plays faced) and faces a Broncos big-play offense ranked 22nd (8.5%, 164 plays).
22ndDEN offense21 spots apart1stSF defense

When the Broncos have the ballNo big edge

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSF pass defense

24th-0.07101 dropbacks

+0.05 allowed110 dropbacks faced18th

DEN run gameEPA per rushSF run defense

12th-0.0363 rushes

-0.08 allowed82 rushes faced14th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the 49ers have the ballEdge SF · +21 ranks

SF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

1st+0.6689 dropbacks

SF +10

-0.02 allowed122 dropbacks faced11th

SF run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

11th-0.0371 rushes

SF +21

+0.15 allowed77 rushes faced32nd

Third downEdge SF · +26 ranks

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSF third-down defense

22nd37.1%35 third downs

42.9% allowed42 third downs faced20th

SF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

1st63.0%27 third downs

SF +26

48.9% allowed45 third downs faced27th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSF red-zone defense

9th67%9 trips

40% allowed10 trips faced7th

SF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

1st91%11 trips

42% allowed12 trips faced8th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SF · +21 ranks

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSF defense against big plays

22nd8.5%164 plays

SF +21

3.6% allowed192 plays faced1st

SF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

3rd14.4%160 plays

SF +17

10.1% allowed199 plays faced20th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge SF · +13 ranks

DEN pass protectionsack rateSF pass rush

10th5.0% sacked101 dropbacks

DEN +12

5.5% of dropbacks110 dropbacks faced22nd

SF pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

1st0.0% sacked89 dropbacks

SF +13

6.6% of dropbacks122 dropbacks faced14th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge SF · +9 ranks

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameSF takeaway defense

19th1.3 giveaways a game3 games

0.7 takeaways a game3 games22nd

SF ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game3 games

SF +9

1.3 takeaways a game3 games10th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DEN 3 games, 164 offensive and 199 defensive plays · SF 3 games, 160 offensive and 192 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jonah ColemanRB→ RJ Harvey

Adam PrenticeFB→ J.K. Dobbins

D.J. JonesNT→ Eyioma Uwazurike

Jonathon CooperWLB→ Que Robinson

Pat Surtain IILCB→ Jahdae Barron

Ja'Quan McMillianNB→ Kris Abrams-Draine

JL SkinnerFS→ Talanoa Hufanga

Devon KeySS→ Brandon Jones

Keenan AllenWR→ Jordan Watkins

DeForest BucknerRDT→ Gracen Halton

Nick BosaRDE→ Romello Height