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Week 10
Latest
Cleveland BrownsEnter for a chance to win tickets to Browns vs. Falcons by Take a Minute, Make a Plan, Never Drive ImpairedTexans DeskTexans earned 44-22 win over Chargers, and the snaps say it was no fluke22 min agoPanthers DeskPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack32 min agoNew Orleans SaintsFive things to know about the New Orleans Saints for Tuesday, November 10Lions DeskLions earned 19-9 in Miami, with a defense doing the work and a thin offense42 min agoBrowns DeskBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints52 min agoCincinnati BengalsHow To Watch Steelers vs Bengals on Sunday Night Football: TV, Streaming and Radio InformationBills DeskBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rate53 min agoNew Orleans SaintsMorning Break: Saints turn attention to NFC South matchup with first place at stakeAtlanta FalconsKevin Stefanski says 'all of us have to step up' after Jessie Bates tradeESPNWill Daniel Jones become a Minnesota Vikings player today?InjuryAlec Anderson: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryDion Dawkins: Out → Questionable1 h agoNew York JetsHow Will the Jets Approach the NFL's Trade Deadline?New York JetsMore Amazing Facts from David Bailey's Performance in Kansas CityPro Football RumorsVikings Expected To Explore QB TradeESPNFantasy buzz: James Cook III helps Bills overcome tough Vikings defenseDetroit LionsTWENTYMAN: 5 stats that stand out following Lions' Week 9 victoryESPNSeven things Solak thinks for NFL Week 10: Jaguars trades, All-Pro picks, morePittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10ESPNCommanders running low on time to 'put it all together'Broncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference8 h ago
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The LabWhere the money pushed the number

Line Movement

Every week the betting market posts a number and then argues with itself until kickoff. We kept both ends of the argument for 897 games since 2023: 75% of lines moved, by 1.45 points on average. The side the market moved toward beat the opening number 56% of the time, 77% when the move was 5 points or more. Against the closing number it went back to a coin flip: 49%. The information is real; by kickoff it is already in the price.

897 games2023 to todayhourly snapshots this weekJSON
This week's board

Where the number has gone since the open

Opening line and current line from the same book, plus the trail of our hourly snapshots. Win chance is the moneyline with the book's margin taken out. Context, not picks.

Bottom line10 of 14 games on this week's board have moved since the open.

How to read this chart
One card = one game.
"Open" is the first point spread the book posted, "Now" is the spread right now. The spread is how many points the favorite is expected to win by: "BAL -4.5" means Baltimore by 4.5.
The orange line
is the path of the spread through our hourly snapshots, from the open (left) to now (right). A step means the number changed.
Win chance
shows the home team's chance to win at the open and now, taken from the moneyline. "Total" is the expected combined score of both teams: orange if it went up, blue if it went down.
Thu 8:15 PM ETDraftKingsWSH@NYGOpenNow1 pt toward NYGNYG win chance53% → 54%Total 47.5 → 41.5Sun 9:30 AM ETDraftKingsNE@DETOpenNow1 pt toward DETDET win chance53% → 57%Total 48.5 → 51.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsBUF@NYJOpenNow1.5 pts toward BUFNYJ win chance26% → 20%Total 46.5 → 50.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsHOU@CLEOpenNowNo move since the openCLE win chance34% → 34%Total 38.5 → 39.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsMIN@GBOpenNowNo move since the openGB win chance66% → 64%Total 45.5 → 42.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsJAX@TENOpenNow8 pts toward JAXTEN win chance45% → 17%Total 45.5 → 46.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsMIA@INDOpenNow4 pts toward MIAIND win chance71% → 55%Total 47.5 → 40.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsKC@ATLOpenNow1 pt toward ATLATL win chance34% → 38%Total 45.5 → 45.5Sun 1:00 PM ETDraftKingsCAR@NOOpenNowNo move since the openNO win chance53% → 52%Total 43.5 → 48.5Sun 4:05 PM ETDraftKingsLAR@ARIOpenNow1 pt toward ARIARI win chance19% → 21%Total 47.5 → 40.5Sun 4:05 PM ETDraftKingsSEA@LVOpenNow3.5 pts toward LVLV win chance26% → 38%Total 43.5 → 43.5Sun 4:25 PM ETDraftKingsSF@DALOpenNow6 pts toward SFDAL win chance52% → 34%Total 52.5 → 55.5Sun 8:20 PM ETDraftKingsPIT@CINOpenNowNo move since the openCIN win chance63% → 62%Total 47.5 → 48.5Mon 8:15 PM ETDraftKingsLAC@BALOpenNow3 pts toward BALBAL win chance56% → 66%Total 48.5 → 38.5
Follow the move?

The market is right, the price is gone

The side the line moved toward, against the spread, pushes left out. 52.4% is what it takes to beat a standard -110 price.

Bottom lineFollowing the move beat the opening number 56% of the time (77% on moves of 5+ points), but only 49% against the closing number: once the line has moved, the edge is gone. Analysis, not betting advice.

How to read this chart
The two dials
show how often the team the line moved toward ended up winning against the spread ("covering": beating the point spread, not just winning the game). Left dial: graded at the opening spread. Right dial: graded at the closing spread, the last number before kickoff.
The tick marks
on each dial are 50% (a coin flip) and 52.4%, the hit rate you need just to break even at the usual -110 price.
The ladder
splits the games by how big the move was. Each row has two bars: gold = against the opener, grey = against the close. The green line is 52.4%.

The week does teach the market something, but less than the moves suggest: the closing spread misses the final margin by 9.64 points on average against 9.8 for the opener, about 2% better, and the moneyline's win chances sharpen from a Brier score of 0.215 to 0.21. The edge was in getting the early number, not in picking the side.

The order book

How far lines travel, and which way

Every game since 2023 by the size of the move from open to close: toward the home team on the left, toward the visitors on the right
toward the home teamptstoward the visitors
730.560
134184
321.531
48229
102.515
26319
123.55
16415
124.56
1256
35.52
126+13
Did not move at all: 224 games

Bottom lineSince 2023, 390 lines moved toward the home team and 285 toward the visitors; 125 moved onto or across 3 and 86 games swapped favorite.

How to read this chart
One row = one size of move,
in points, from the opening spread to the closing spread (the middle column: 0.5, 1, 1.5 … 6+).
Bars to the left
count games where the line moved toward the home team; bars to the right, toward the visitors. Longer bar = more games. The number next to the bar is the count.
Highlighted rows
are 3 and 6+: 3 and 7 are the most common winning margins in football, so moves around those numbers matter most.
lines moved onto or across 3the most common winning margin in football
moved onto or across 7the second key number
games switched favoritethe opening underdog was favored at kickoff
Totals

When the total drops, it drops too far

Opening total against closing total, and where the combined score landed
Total bet up · 295 games57%went over the opening total53%went over the closing total
Total bet down · 399 games56%went under the opening total47%went under the closing total

Bottom lineWhen the total fell, games still went under the closing total only 47% of the time: the drop tends to go a bit too far.

How to read this chart
The total
is the combined score the book expects from both teams. "Bet up" means the total rose between the open and kickoff, "bet down" that it fell.
Each card
shows, for those games, how often the real combined score finished over (or under) the opening total and the closing total.

Totals fall more often than they rise (399 to 295) and by 1.58 points on average. Against the closing number, games bet down went over 53% of the time: the push toward the under tends to overshoot.

The biggest moves

Ten lines that changed their mind

Each candle runs from the opening number (white tick) to the closing number; the diamond is the final margin. Gold candles: the side the market moved toward beat the opener.

Bottom lineIn the ten biggest moves since 2023, the side the market moved toward beat the opener 8 times.

How to read this chart
One candle = one game.
The vertical scale is the home team's margin: up means the home team wins by more, down means the visitors win by more. The bold line in the middle is a tie.
The white tick
is the opening spread, the other end of the bar is the closing spread. The longer the bar, the bigger the move.
The diamond
is how the game actually ended. Gold candles: the side the market moved toward beat the opening spread. Grey: it did not.
BAL wins byJAX wins by14 ptsBAL -4.5 → JAX -9.5Final JAX 33, BAL 10Nov 5, 2026BAL started Joe Fagnano
JAX wins byPHI wins by10 ptsPHI -2.5 → JAX -7.5Final PHI 17, JAX 19Oct 11, 2026
LAR wins bySEA wins by10 ptsLAR -2.5 → SEA -7.5Final SEA 30, LAR 25Jan 5, 2025LAR started Jimmy Garoppolo
PHI wins byCAR wins by9.5 ptsPHI -6.5 → CAR -3Final CAR 25, PHI 14Oct 18, 2026PHI started Tanner McKee
NYG wins byARI wins by9.5 ptsNYG -7 → ARI -2.5Final ARI 24, NYG 36Oct 4, 2026
SEA wins byIND wins by9 ptsSEA -3.5 → SEA -12.5Final IND 16, SEA 18Dec 14, 2025IND started Philip Rivers
PHI wins byNYG wins by8.5 ptsPHI -5.5 → NYG -3Final NYG 19, PHI 11Nov 8, 2026PHI started Joe Milton III
WSH wins byPHI wins by8 ptsPHI -2.5 → WSH -5.5Final PHI 10, WSH 27Nov 1, 2026PHI started Tanner McKee
KC wins byDEN wins by8 ptsDEN -5.5 → DEN -13.5Final DEN 20, KC 13Dec 25, 2025KC started Chris Oladokun
TEN wins byKC wins by8 ptsKC -11.5 → KC -3.5Final KC 9, TEN 26Dec 21, 2025KC started Gardner Minshew

53 of the 159 moves of 3 points or more came in games where the team the market moved away from started a different quarterback from the week before. Those moves beat the opener 63% of the time; the other big moves, injuries elsewhere, weather, form and money, 62%.

Market stock 2026

Every team's number, like a share price

Points the market moved toward each team between open and close, added up game by game this season. Rising line = the market keeps upgrading them during the week.

Bottom lineCardinals have gained the most this season (+37.5 points); Eagles have lost the most (−39.0).

How to read this chart
One mini chart = one team,
game by game this season, left to right.
The line
adds up how many points the spread moved toward that team between open and kickoff. Green and above the dotted line: the market upgraded them during the week. Red and below: it downgraded them. The ▲/▼ number is the season total.
Bottom label
is games played and how often they beat the opening spread.
ARI▲ 37.59 games · 44% vs open
JAX▲ 378 games · 75% vs open
CAR▲ 21.58 games · 38% vs open
NYJ▲ 179 games · 56% vs open
DAL▲ 169 games · 44% vs open
CIN▲ 15.58 games · 75% vs open
LV▲ 13.59 games · 67% vs open
HOU▲ 11.58 games · 38% vs open
ATL▲ 119 games · 33% vs open
BUF▲ 10.58 games · 75% vs open
MIN▲ 10.58 games · 75% vs open
KC▲ 5.58 games · 50% vs open
DEN▲ 5.59 games · 78% vs open
PIT▲ 4.58 games · 75% vs open
CLE▲ 39 games · 67% vs open
NO▲ 28 games · 38% vs open
CHI▲ 19 games · 67% vs open
LAR▼ 29 games · 56% vs open
SF▼ 28 games · 75% vs open
SEA▼ 3.59 games · 44% vs open
IND▼ 49 games · 33% vs open
WSH▼ 4.58 games · 38% vs open
DET▼ 7.58 games · 38% vs open
NYG▼ 108 games · 75% vs open
MIA▼ 10.58 games · 38% vs open
NE▼ 11.59 games · 44% vs open
TB▼ 16.59 games · 44% vs open
TEN▼ 24.58 games · 38% vs open
GB▼ 25.59 games · 56% vs open
BAL▼ 289 games · 33% vs open
LAC▼ 348 games · 0% vs open
PHI▼ 399 games · 0% vs open
Since 2023

Darlings and doubts

Total points the market moved toward or away from each team between open and close, every game since 2023
Market darlingsThe line kept moving their way
  1. Falconscovered the opener 45% · the close 41%+42.5
  2. Jaguarscovered the opener 62% · the close 59%+40.5
  3. Broncoscovered the opener 61% · the close 59%+34.5
  4. Jetscovered the opener 38% · the close 36%+31.0
  5. Bengalscovered the opener 55% · the close 51%+29.0
  6. Saintscovered the opener 46% · the close 45%+20.5
Market doubtsThe line kept moving away from them
  1. Eaglescovered the opener 47% · the close 50%−36.5
  2. Packerscovered the opener 47% · the close 53%−35.5
  3. Commanderscovered the opener 44% · the close 50%−32.5
  4. Chargerscovered the opener 46% · the close 47%−31.0
  5. Titanscovered the opener 30% · the close 32%−26.0
  6. Buccaneerscovered the opener 47% · the close 48%−25.0

Bottom lineFalcons are the market's favorite to back late (+42.5 points since 2023); Eagles the most doubted (−36.5).

How to read this chart
Big number on the right
is the total points the spread moved toward (+) or away from (−) the team between open and kickoff, added over every game since 2023.
Under each name
how often the team beat the opening spread and the closing spread.
The season cards
below give the average move per game and how often following the move beat the opener, year by year.
20231.2 ptsaverage move · 79% of lines movedmoved-to side beat the opener 63% · 192 games
20241.2 ptsaverage move · 75% of lines movedmoved-to side beat the opener 53% · 284 games
20251.34 ptsaverage move · 68% of lines movedmoved-to side beat the opener 55% · 285 games
20262.58 ptsaverage move · 85% of lines movedmoved-to side beat the opener 56% · 136 games
MethodHow this is built
Where the lines come from
ESPN keeps the opening and closing numbers of the sportsbooks it lists for every game since 2023. We use one book per game, in this order: ESPN BET, DraftKings, MGM. The closing numbers match the nflverse closing lines within half a point in 88% of games.
What "open" means
The first number the book posted. Books open at different times: the 2026 openers are earlier lookahead lines, which is why this season's moves are bigger (2.58 points on average against about 1.2 before).
Following the move
The side the line moved toward, graded against the spread at the opening number and at the closing number. Pushes are left out. This describes the past and is not a betting system: by the time a move is visible, most of it is already in the price.
Quarterback changes
A move is tagged when the team the market moved away from started a different quarterback from its previous game (nflverse starters).
This week
The opening and current line from ESPN for each game in the next eight days, refreshed every 30 minutes, and our own snapshot of every listed book every hour since November 9, 2026.